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That relies on you being able to guess. You can retroactively see which collectibles gained value, but you are unlikely to know that ahead of time. If you someh

by elil17 5y ago

That relies on you being able to guess. You can retroactively see which collectibles gained value, but you are unlikely to know that ahead of time. If you somehow do know - congrats, you’ve hit the jackpot. Maybe you have a place in the art community that introduces you to rising artists before they hit it big. Maybe you have access to sales data for toys before it gets published. But if you’ve read about it in the newspaper, you’re too late.

allturtles 5y ago
Isn't exactly the same thing true of stocks? I always wish I had bought Apple or Tesla at the right time, but I didn't.
- throwaway09223 5y ago
  Yes, but the important difference is that on the whole, the stock market goes up. On the whole, the collectables market does not.
  - ipaddr 5y ago
    The collectable market keeps growing with new products and new prices everyday. Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer).
    - lottin 5y ago
      > Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer). This is absolutely not true. If we pick a random item from the 1980s that was valuable at the time, the chances are it's worthless now.
    - nradov 5y ago
      The market for Hummel figurines was large and growing for many years. Now they've fallen out of fashion and are basically given away in estate sales as the collectors die off.
    - Ekaros 5y ago
      Hmm. I wonder if there is good overview of numbers on let's say stamps and coins. And I'm interested about mid and high-mid value stuff here. How well are those doing?
- d3nj4l 5y ago
  No, it's not. You can make decisions about buying stock based on fundamentals. You can choose to buy Apple stock based on their products, and on Tesla stock based on their technology. You can't reliably do the same for collectibles.
  - allturtles 5y ago
    Nothing about Apple's products in 1995 would have told you to expect returns like you would have gotten over the last 25 years. Tesla's technology over the past couple of years hasn't really changed but their stock price has gone up 10x. There are no fundamentals that justify the current price, AFAICT.
- pixl97 5y ago
  I mean with stocks someone tends to keep historical data so you can measure risk. With collectables this risk is much harder to quantify as it generally professionally recorded. This inability to correctly measure risk, especially in markets with low liquidity dupes people into believing they have a much larger chance of 'winning' than actually exists.
- elil17 5y ago
  Based on historical data, if you buy 1000 random stocks or bonds at a random time, in ten years you’ll have made money - on dividends and value appreciation. If you buy 1000 random collectibles at a random time, in ten years you’ll have lost most of your money.
grapeskin 5y ago
No different from buying random small name stocks. Sometimes you luck out and your stock grows 20x in five years. Sometimes it doesn’t. On the other hand, buying, say, Apple stock, is not much different from buying a first edition Charizard card or an unopened copy of Super Metroid. It’ll probably steadily grow in value over years and has been. But both could end up collapsing tomorrow for unknown reasons.
- majormajor 5y ago
  This is covered in the article in the cash flow aspect. Outside of a total economic collapse that took out "real" investments and collectibles both, the reasons the value of an Apple share would fall, or the price of land would fall, would be much more tangible and understandable. The relationship for land is more obvious and immediate that business investment (you can charge rent!) but someone in 2010 who said "this iPhone thing seems to be generating a lot of cash flow for Apple, I think this is a good time to invest" is doing it not solely because they think the number of people interested in buying stocks is going to increase, but because they think Apple in particular is going to continue to do well financially because Apple is producing something people want to use.
  - grapeskin 5y ago
    People will also keep buying pristine copies of old games so long as that series has some popularity. People aren’t going to lose interest in Nintendo series any time soon. Even if Nintendo made some awful business decisions, went bankrupt, and the developers and executives were all revealed to be violent criminals, people would still love those games and want to own them. There’s a non zero possibility Apple could be bankrupt in 5 years and all those stocks become worthless. You never know what the next ENRON could be.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - Retric 5y ago
      If you want to compare specific bets then plenty of companies have seen 500x returns over shockingly short periods. It’s picking the winners that’s tricky and not everyone can get lucky.

by elil17 5y ago

allturtles 5y ago

Isn't exactly the same thing true of stocks? I always wish I had bought Apple or Tesla at the right time, but I didn't.

throwaway09223 5y ago
Yes, but the important difference is that on the whole, the stock market goes up. On the whole, the collectables market does not.
- ipaddr 5y ago
  The collectable market keeps growing with new products and new prices everyday. Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer).
  - lottin 5y ago
    > Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer). This is absolutely not true. If we pick a random item from the 1980s that was valuable at the time, the chances are it's worthless now.
  - nradov 5y ago
    The market for Hummel figurines was large and growing for many years. Now they've fallen out of fashion and are basically given away in estate sales as the collectors die off.
  - Ekaros 5y ago
    Hmm. I wonder if there is good overview of numbers on let's say stamps and coins. And I'm interested about mid and high-mid value stuff here. How well are those doing?
d3nj4l 5y ago
No, it's not. You can make decisions about buying stock based on fundamentals. You can choose to buy Apple stock based on their products, and on Tesla stock based on their technology. You can't reliably do the same for collectibles.
- allturtles 5y ago
  Nothing about Apple's products in 1995 would have told you to expect returns like you would have gotten over the last 25 years. Tesla's technology over the past couple of years hasn't really changed but their stock price has gone up 10x. There are no fundamentals that justify the current price, AFAICT.
pixl97 5y ago
I mean with stocks someone tends to keep historical data so you can measure risk. With collectables this risk is much harder to quantify as it generally professionally recorded. This inability to correctly measure risk, especially in markets with low liquidity dupes people into believing they have a much larger chance of 'winning' than actually exists.
elil17 5y ago
Based on historical data, if you buy 1000 random stocks or bonds at a random time, in ten years you’ll have made money - on dividends and value appreciation. If you buy 1000 random collectibles at a random time, in ten years you’ll have lost most of your money.

grapeskin 5y ago

No different from buying random small name stocks. Sometimes you luck out and your stock grows 20x in five years. Sometimes it doesn’t. On the other hand, buying, say, Apple stock, is not much different from buying a first edition Charizard card or an unopened copy of Super Metroid. It’ll probably steadily grow in value over years and has been. But both could end up collapsing tomorrow for unknown reasons.

majormajor 5y ago
This is covered in the article in the cash flow aspect. Outside of a total economic collapse that took out "real" investments and collectibles both, the reasons the value of an Apple share would fall, or the price of land would fall, would be much more tangible and understandable. The relationship for land is more obvious and immediate that business investment (you can charge rent!) but someone in 2010 who said "this iPhone thing seems to be generating a lot of cash flow for Apple, I think this is a good time to invest" is doing it not solely because they think the number of people interested in buying stocks is going to increase, but because they think Apple in particular is going to continue to do well financially because Apple is producing something people want to use.
- grapeskin 5y ago
  People will also keep buying pristine copies of old games so long as that series has some popularity. People aren’t going to lose interest in Nintendo series any time soon. Even if Nintendo made some awful business decisions, went bankrupt, and the developers and executives were all revealed to be violent criminals, people would still love those games and want to own them. There’s a non zero possibility Apple could be bankrupt in 5 years and all those stocks become worthless. You never know what the next ENRON could be.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - Retric 5y ago
    If you want to compare specific bets then plenty of companies have seen 500x returns over shockingly short periods. It’s picking the winners that’s tricky and not everyone can get lucky.