4 ms·
If people weren't so resistant to government policy we might have seen something close to zero covid rolled out in the US and, instead of the US being the locus
by munk-a 5y ago
If people weren't so resistant to government policy we might have seen something close to zero covid rolled out in the US and, instead of the US being the locus of disease for a number of years, we might have actually ended this pandemic with a decisive but painful quarantine - instead we'll continue in this state of psuedo quarantine for who knows how many years... how we comport ourselves today might just be the new social standard.
China's decision to continue on the zero-covid route seems extremely unwise once it was clear that breakouts were happening across the globe and containment was no longer an option - but initially pursuing containment was an extremely wise policy.
- nradov 5y agoThat's just nonsense completely divorced from scientific reality. Even a strict quarantine wouldn't have sufficed to stop a highly contagious respiratory virus with multiple animal reservoirs. It's now clear that the best strategy would have been to focus on protecting the most vulnerable, as recommended by leading experts back in 2020. https://gbdeclaration.org/ https://gbdeclaration.org/
- whimsicalism 5y agoWWe have successfully eradicated SARS, a respiratory virus, in the past. If we had actually responded faster we could have done the same. China has averted 3 million deaths and most of the country has been free of lockdown for the last 2 years once they got the virus under control. That is "scientific reality". Claims that China's numbers are problematic, while probably true, are not the same as saying that China has hidden millions of covid deaths, which basically nobody who studies this believes.
- nradov 5y agoWe didn't eradicate SARS-CoV. It died out on its own. Due to the high R0 and animal reservoirs there is no way to eradicate SARS-CoV-2, or even keep it permanently under control. It will be around forever, just like the other 4 endemic human coronaviruses. https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646 https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646 The only human virus we have eradicated is smallpox. And that only worked because there were no animal reservoirs, and the vaccines were fairly effective at preventing infection and transmission. That situation does not obtain with SARS-CoV-2.
- DiogenesKynikos 5y agoSeveral countries, including the world's most populous country, did, in fact, succeed in completely eliminating the virus. The countries that pursued an elimination strategy (a.k.a. zero-CoVID) have had orders of magnitude fewer deaths, and were able to enjoy long periods of time with virtually no restrictions on everyday life. Life in the vast majority of China has been basically normal for most of the last 2 years. People have been going to restaurants, holding parties, going to concerts, etc. without having to worry about the virus, because it hasn't been spreading in the country. > recommended by leading experts The Great Barrington Declaration isn't some sort of consensus of "leading experts." It's a document drawn up by a libertarian think tank, that a small number of academics signed. For political reasons, most Western countries have ended up following something close to this strategy since fairly early on in the pandemic, and the results (both in terms of deaths and economic impact) have been abysmal, particularly in comparison with the zero-CoVID countries.
- mensetmanusman 5y agoYour priors have expired. It’s impossible to have zero Covid unless you vaccinate all mammals in the world.