3 ms·

I’m Not sure. Can you say you know for sure why it’s happening??

koonsolo 4y ago
Because Putin is an idiot. If they come out victorious, I will stand corrected. But if it means Russia is going faster down the drain, I'm probably spot on. He doesn't like NATO, so his strategy is to invade a non-NATO neighbour. What an idiot. Now all of a sudden, all neighbouring non-NATO countries want to join NATO. What a surprise. Finland applied already, Sweden later this year. Deals with EU were going great, especially with Germany that is highly dependent on Russian gas. Consequence of the war: EU kicks out (of phases out) economic trade. Nice one. If Russia hates US so much, why don't they collaborate more with EU? A strong EU-Russia relationship could match US in any sense. But no, Russia prefers to behave like an aggressive lunatic. EU was very much open to work together, see Germany. Now it is clear that was a big mistake. So yeah, it's because he's an aggressive idiot lunatic.
- denton-scratch 4y ago
  > Putin is an idiot. > he's an aggressive idiot lunatic. I think there are two mistakes here: 1. Personalising it as being about Putin. 2. Characterising Putin as being stupid or mad. Nearly everything that Russia (not Putin) has done has been pre-announced by the Russian leadership. In fact, most of the pre-announcement has been by Putin himself, and I wonder whether his generals think that's a good idea. NATO has treated those announcements as bullying bluster; they were wrong. Most of those announcements were based on long-established Russian or Soviet military doctrine. If anyone's an idiot, it's NATO leadership, for assuming it was all bluster. Characterising your enemy as a mad fool is a standard propaganda technique. There are reasons why the invasion is happening now, not sooner and not later. Both Ukraine and Georgia have loudly declared their desire to join NATO and the EU; it's obvious that Russia would very much prefer not to have NATO on his border. If Russia thinks it needs to invade Ukraine, then it needed to be done now. Similarly, the cancellation of Nordstream II, and the increased deployment of renewables in Europe threatens Russia's economy. The Russian treasury is flush now, but even setting aside sanctions, it won't be for long. Putin certainly has some odd beliefs, such as his views about the historical destiny of the Rus people. But basing claims to land on historical destiny isn't unique to Russia; there are long-standing US allies that make similar claims (Israel?).
  - koonsolo 4y ago
    > NATO has treated those announcements as bullying bluster You mean Russia claiming it's just doing some military trainings at the border, and then US claiming it's going to invade Ukraine in the next few days? > If anyone's an idiot, it's NATO leadership You mean 2 non-NATO parties fighting each other? Seems like good old divide and conquer strategy to me. After this war, Russia won't have much left to fight NATO. NATO is not affected in any way. > Russia would very much prefer not to have NATO on his border This is going to double once Finland joins, which will happen this year. All because of Putin's mastermind strategy. > the cancellation of Nordstream II This happened after the invasion. One of the reasons why this was a very bad move on Russia's part. > a mad fool The best you can claim is that he was misinformed (hence the arrests and layoffs of the FSB). Putin made a serious mistake. Now they are rolling with it. Anyone who claims this was a good move on Russia's part is just an idiot.
    - denton-scratch 4y ago
      You seem to have mistaken me for an invasion supporter. Calling people (me, Putin) an idiot is itself idiotic, if you are at all interested in understanding the situation. If you dismiss a participant as being [mad | stupid], then you lose the ability to understand and predict his actions. My view is that Russia, mainly at Putin's instigation, has perpetrated a catastrophic mistake. But how and why did that mistake happen? I think it's plausible to claim that Putin's ministers and generals are afraid to tell him anything he doesn't want to hear. That doesn't make him stupid or mad; that just means he's scary. So why has he made this mistake, and why now? I think if you read what he has said, and take it seriously - not as the ravings of an idiotic madman - your chance of understanding why we are here, and of making accurate predictions about what might happen next, are much improved. [Edit] What I think is idiotic is to not take seriously a man that controls 6,000 nuclear warheads. If you check out the guy's career, he's a competent but boring bureaucrat, embittered that nobody recognised his wonderfulness, who got lucky under Yeltsin.
      - koonsolo 4y ago
        > You seem to have mistaken me for an invasion supporter. No I didn't think that. But it did seem to me that you thought this invasion wasn't a mistake on Russia's end. > My view is that Russia, mainly at Putin's instigation, has perpetrated a catastrophic mistake. So I wrongly interpreted your previous post. We basically agree on this one. So I don't consider you an idiot ;). > I think it's plausible to claim that Putin's ministers and generals are afraid to tell him anything he doesn't want to hear. That doesn't make him stupid or mad. I think it's here were we differ. He should know better as to how reliable the info is that he gets. If he punishes bad news, he should be smart enough to know that people will not tell him bad news. I call that idiotic. > making accurate predictions about what might happen next, are much improved I agree with you on this one. Maybe my "lunatic" was not well chosen, and should be replaced with "psychopath". Because only a psychopath kills or poisons political opposition. But it's perfectly doable to predict an idiot's actions. For the most part I think we actually agree with each other, it's just the wording that might differ. It seems Putin was living in his own fantasy land for quite a while. And now that he's getting hit with reality, I sure hope he's sane enough to understand certain consequences.
DoughnutHole 4y ago
Because the baseline view of the Russian government is that Ukraine achieving independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union was a mistake. Vladimir Putin is a Russian irredentists who does not believe Ukraine has a right to exist as a state unless under the Russian thumb. This is not in dispute. This has been pretty much outlined explicitly by Vladimir Putin in several writings and speeches. > I will start with the fact that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. Continuing in reference to the creation of the Ukrainian SSR: > This immediately raises many questions. The first is really the main one: why was it necessary to appease the nationalists, to satisfy the ceaselessly growing nationalist ambitions on the outskirts of the former empire? What was the point of transferring to the newly, often arbitrarily formed administrative units – the union republics – vast territories that had nothing to do with them? Let me repeat that these territories were transferred along with the population of what was historically Russia. ... > Why was it necessary to make such generous gifts, beyond the wildest dreams of the most zealous nationalists and, on top of all that, give the republics the right to secede from the unified state without any conditions? > I would like to emphasize again that Ukraine is not just a neighboring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space - Putin, 21 February 2022 [http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67828 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67828] > I am certain that the true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible precisely in partnership with Russia - Putin, 12 JUL 2021 [https://tass.com/world/1313223?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com https://tass.com/world/1313223?utm_source=google.com&utm_med...] The Russian head of state does not deny that this war is intended to dominate Ukraine and bring it effectively under Russian control and end its independence and its drift away from the Russian sphere of influence. You don't have to act like it's a complicated situation - not even Russia is pretending that it is.
- mynameisvlad 4y ago
  > this war Special military operation. ;)

Because Putin is an idiot. If they come out victorious, I will stand corrected. But if it means Russia is going faster down the drain, I'm probably spot on. He doesn't like NATO, so his strategy is to invade a non-NATO neighbour. What an idiot. Now all of a sudden, all neighbouring non-NATO countries want to join NATO. What a surprise. Finland applied already, Sweden later this year. Deals with EU were going great, especially with Germany that is highly dependent on Russian gas. Consequence of the war: EU kicks out (of phases out) economic trade. Nice one. If Russia hates US so much, why don't they collaborate more with EU? A strong EU-Russia relationship could match US in any sense. But no, Russia prefers to behave like an aggressive lunatic. EU was very much open to work together, see Germany. Now it is clear that was a big mistake. So yeah, it's because he's an aggressive idiot lunatic.

denton-scratch 4y ago
> Putin is an idiot. > he's an aggressive idiot lunatic. I think there are two mistakes here: 1. Personalising it as being about Putin. 2. Characterising Putin as being stupid or mad. Nearly everything that Russia (not Putin) has done has been pre-announced by the Russian leadership. In fact, most of the pre-announcement has been by Putin himself, and I wonder whether his generals think that's a good idea. NATO has treated those announcements as bullying bluster; they were wrong. Most of those announcements were based on long-established Russian or Soviet military doctrine. If anyone's an idiot, it's NATO leadership, for assuming it was all bluster. Characterising your enemy as a mad fool is a standard propaganda technique. There are reasons why the invasion is happening now, not sooner and not later. Both Ukraine and Georgia have loudly declared their desire to join NATO and the EU; it's obvious that Russia would very much prefer not to have NATO on his border. If Russia thinks it needs to invade Ukraine, then it needed to be done now. Similarly, the cancellation of Nordstream II, and the increased deployment of renewables in Europe threatens Russia's economy. The Russian treasury is flush now, but even setting aside sanctions, it won't be for long. Putin certainly has some odd beliefs, such as his views about the historical destiny of the Rus people. But basing claims to land on historical destiny isn't unique to Russia; there are long-standing US allies that make similar claims (Israel?).
- koonsolo 4y ago
  > NATO has treated those announcements as bullying bluster You mean Russia claiming it's just doing some military trainings at the border, and then US claiming it's going to invade Ukraine in the next few days? > If anyone's an idiot, it's NATO leadership You mean 2 non-NATO parties fighting each other? Seems like good old divide and conquer strategy to me. After this war, Russia won't have much left to fight NATO. NATO is not affected in any way. > Russia would very much prefer not to have NATO on his border This is going to double once Finland joins, which will happen this year. All because of Putin's mastermind strategy. > the cancellation of Nordstream II This happened after the invasion. One of the reasons why this was a very bad move on Russia's part. > a mad fool The best you can claim is that he was misinformed (hence the arrests and layoffs of the FSB). Putin made a serious mistake. Now they are rolling with it. Anyone who claims this was a good move on Russia's part is just an idiot.
  - denton-scratch 4y ago
    You seem to have mistaken me for an invasion supporter. Calling people (me, Putin) an idiot is itself idiotic, if you are at all interested in understanding the situation. If you dismiss a participant as being [mad | stupid], then you lose the ability to understand and predict his actions. My view is that Russia, mainly at Putin's instigation, has perpetrated a catastrophic mistake. But how and why did that mistake happen? I think it's plausible to claim that Putin's ministers and generals are afraid to tell him anything he doesn't want to hear. That doesn't make him stupid or mad; that just means he's scary. So why has he made this mistake, and why now? I think if you read what he has said, and take it seriously - not as the ravings of an idiotic madman - your chance of understanding why we are here, and of making accurate predictions about what might happen next, are much improved. [Edit] What I think is idiotic is to not take seriously a man that controls 6,000 nuclear warheads. If you check out the guy's career, he's a competent but boring bureaucrat, embittered that nobody recognised his wonderfulness, who got lucky under Yeltsin.
    - koonsolo 4y ago
      > You seem to have mistaken me for an invasion supporter. No I didn't think that. But it did seem to me that you thought this invasion wasn't a mistake on Russia's end. > My view is that Russia, mainly at Putin's instigation, has perpetrated a catastrophic mistake. So I wrongly interpreted your previous post. We basically agree on this one. So I don't consider you an idiot ;). > I think it's plausible to claim that Putin's ministers and generals are afraid to tell him anything he doesn't want to hear. That doesn't make him stupid or mad. I think it's here were we differ. He should know better as to how reliable the info is that he gets. If he punishes bad news, he should be smart enough to know that people will not tell him bad news. I call that idiotic. > making accurate predictions about what might happen next, are much improved I agree with you on this one. Maybe my "lunatic" was not well chosen, and should be replaced with "psychopath". Because only a psychopath kills or poisons political opposition. But it's perfectly doable to predict an idiot's actions. For the most part I think we actually agree with each other, it's just the wording that might differ. It seems Putin was living in his own fantasy land for quite a while. And now that he's getting hit with reality, I sure hope he's sane enough to understand certain consequences.

DoughnutHole 4y ago

Because the baseline view of the Russian government is that Ukraine achieving independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union was a mistake. Vladimir Putin is a Russian irredentists who does not believe Ukraine has a right to exist as a state unless under the Russian thumb. This is not in dispute. This has been pretty much outlined explicitly by Vladimir Putin in several writings and speeches. > I will start with the fact that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. Continuing in reference to the creation of the Ukrainian SSR: > This immediately raises many questions. The first is really the main one: why was it necessary to appease the nationalists, to satisfy the ceaselessly growing nationalist ambitions on the outskirts of the former empire? What was the point of transferring to the newly, often arbitrarily formed administrative units – the union republics – vast territories that had nothing to do with them? Let me repeat that these territories were transferred along with the population of what was historically Russia. ... > Why was it necessary to make such generous gifts, beyond the wildest dreams of the most zealous nationalists and, on top of all that, give the republics the right to secede from the unified state without any conditions? > I would like to emphasize again that Ukraine is not just a neighboring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space - Putin, 21 February 2022 [http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67828 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67828] > I am certain that the true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible precisely in partnership with Russia - Putin, 12 JUL 2021 [https://tass.com/world/1313223?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com https://tass.com/world/1313223?utm_source=google.com&utm_med...] The Russian head of state does not deny that this war is intended to dominate Ukraine and bring it effectively under Russian control and end its independence and its drift away from the Russian sphere of influence. You don't have to act like it's a complicated situation - not even Russia is pretending that it is.

mynameisvlad 4y ago
> this war Special military operation. ;)