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According to the article it definitely will be a very significant event if it turns out to be the result of a Ukrainian missile attack which has not been confir

According to the article it definitely will be a very significant event if it turns out to be the result of a Ukrainian missile attack which has not been confirmed. I'm not sure how it could be confirmed that Ukrainian actions cause the ship to sink. Hardly likely that Russia will say so even if it is true. Maybe someone with expertise in these matters could shed light on the question. Certainly there are more than a few people around the globe who are highly invested in knowing the answer to that one.

jacobolus 5y ago
> not sure how it could be confirmed The Ukrainians were reportedly flying a Bayraktar TB2 drone nearby at the time (used as a spotter/distraction for their 2 Neptun anti-ship cruise missiles), and might have video footage. Whether they would want to release it is another story. There could plausibly be intercepted audio of radio conversations among the Russian military. Aside: The current Ukrainian gov’t response is pretty snarky: “Oleksiy Arestovych, aide to Zelensky administration chief of staff Yermak, likens fire at Russia’s flagship cruiser Moskva to blast at Belgorod fuel depot, says both happen to appear as some bad luck.” https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1514400382356803589 https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/151440038235680358...
- jrapdx3 5y ago
  Thank you, good points. Though IIRC the drone was reported to have been shot down but it could have transmitted footage before that happened. If Ukraine has audio recordings that would be very interesting, but as you say they might be reluctant to share it.
  - optimalsolver 5y ago
    That was a different ship and different drone: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514401183900831756 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514401183900831756
topspin 5y ago
> I'm not sure how it could be confirmed that Ukrainian actions cause the ship to sink. One way to dispel doubt is to sink more ships with more missiles.
- jrapdx3 5y ago
  Pretty sure Ukraine would love to make that happen. If they did that Ukraine probably wouldn't care if people thought sinking other Russian ships didn't constitute proof Ukrainians sank this one.
- thelittleone 5y ago
  Ship trackers have noted that the remainder of the Russian black sea fleet has since moved further South [1]. If true, that's a fairly interesting indicator. [1] https://news.yahoo.com/russian-ships-heading-south-russian-182931391.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma https://news.yahoo.com/russian-ships-heading-south-russian-1...
  - gilbetron 5y ago
    Got to move away from those onboard fires!
  - jacobolus 5y ago
    To be fair the Moskva was the most capable radar/AA platform for the fleet. Without it they are also more vulnerable to manned/unmanned aircraft.
  - topspin 5y ago
    Thing is that although this attack was from a shore battery (assuming the Ukrainian account is true,) the Neptune missile is actually an air launch design. So unless the Russian navy moves out of range of an SU-27 or whatnot they're still vulnerable. Iraq hit the US navy with missiles launched from a business jet. Given what we've seen to date the Ukrainians are at least as resourceful. Bad time to be on a Russian warship in the Black Sea.
    - 5y ago
j4yav 5y ago
It would honestly be pretty significant also if they accidentally blew up their own flagship.
dgudkov 5y ago
> which has not been confirmed Who do you expect to confirm it? Ukraine? They did it. Russia? They will never ever admit it. The US? They might not have technical means for that despite lots of flying surveillance assets in that area.
- raducu 4y ago
  The question is also why? Ukraine got what it wanted from the news. There's no point rubbing it in Russia's face any more, enraging the russians even more. The same for US.

jacobolus 5y ago

> not sure how it could be confirmed The Ukrainians were reportedly flying a Bayraktar TB2 drone nearby at the time (used as a spotter/distraction for their 2 Neptun anti-ship cruise missiles), and might have video footage. Whether they would want to release it is another story. There could plausibly be intercepted audio of radio conversations among the Russian military. Aside: The current Ukrainian gov’t response is pretty snarky: “Oleksiy Arestovych, aide to Zelensky administration chief of staff Yermak, likens fire at Russia’s flagship cruiser Moskva to blast at Belgorod fuel depot, says both happen to appear as some bad luck.” https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1514400382356803589 https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/151440038235680358...

jrapdx3 5y ago
Thank you, good points. Though IIRC the drone was reported to have been shot down but it could have transmitted footage before that happened. If Ukraine has audio recordings that would be very interesting, but as you say they might be reluctant to share it.
- optimalsolver 5y ago
  That was a different ship and different drone: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514401183900831756 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514401183900831756

topspin 5y ago

> I'm not sure how it could be confirmed that Ukrainian actions cause the ship to sink. One way to dispel doubt is to sink more ships with more missiles.

jrapdx3 5y ago
Pretty sure Ukraine would love to make that happen. If they did that Ukraine probably wouldn't care if people thought sinking other Russian ships didn't constitute proof Ukrainians sank this one.
thelittleone 5y ago
Ship trackers have noted that the remainder of the Russian black sea fleet has since moved further South [1]. If true, that's a fairly interesting indicator. [1] https://news.yahoo.com/russian-ships-heading-south-russian-182931391.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma https://news.yahoo.com/russian-ships-heading-south-russian-1...
- gilbetron 5y ago
  Got to move away from those onboard fires!
- jacobolus 5y ago
  To be fair the Moskva was the most capable radar/AA platform for the fleet. Without it they are also more vulnerable to manned/unmanned aircraft.
- topspin 5y ago
  Thing is that although this attack was from a shore battery (assuming the Ukrainian account is true,) the Neptune missile is actually an air launch design. So unless the Russian navy moves out of range of an SU-27 or whatnot they're still vulnerable. Iraq hit the US navy with missiles launched from a business jet. Given what we've seen to date the Ukrainians are at least as resourceful. Bad time to be on a Russian warship in the Black Sea.
  - 5y ago

j4yav 5y ago

It would honestly be pretty significant also if they accidentally blew up their own flagship.

dgudkov 5y ago

> which has not been confirmed Who do you expect to confirm it? Ukraine? They did it. Russia? They will never ever admit it. The US? They might not have technical means for that despite lots of flying surveillance assets in that area.

raducu 4y ago
The question is also why? Ukraine got what it wanted from the news. There's no point rubbing it in Russia's face any more, enraging the russians even more. The same for US.