10 ms·

Disagree. I'm in the 'young' bracket here but researching geopolitics/military is something of a hobby for me. I'm not arguing that the young are all like me,

by edrxty 5y ago

Disagree. I'm in the 'young' bracket here but researching geopolitics/military is something of a hobby for me. I'm not arguing that the young are all like me, but rather that I applaud my generation for being skeptical, at least from an intervention POV. I still side strongly with Ukraine but this is a complex issue and rolling the tanks against a country with less GDP than NY does not make the world inherently safer. The older generations, on the other hand, were raised in the context of Russia being a world power while at this time they've revealed themselves to be objectively not. However, a Sino-Russian alliance would be an absolute nightmare scenario and direct military involvement would give China a possible excuse to back Russia. As long as they remain neutral-ish then it's safe to let this play out, particularly given how things are going so far. Now, the area that concerns me is how many are openly supporting Russia. Skepticism is great but I don't think there's any reason to voice support for Russia at this time.

ramesh31 5y ago
>I still side strongly with Ukraine but this is a complex issue and rolling the tanks against a country with less GDP than NY does not make the world inherently safer. Putin takes Luhansk and Donestsk, consolidates the southern coast, and links to Transnistria. Ukraine is now a landlocked welfare case for Europe, with millions of refugees streaming out and a government in collapse. Just like that, Russia has a salient into Western europe, and the world order of national sovereignty comes to an end. There is no complexity to the issue. This is the clearest, most mortal threat to Western civilization since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Do not fall for "let's hear both sides" whataboutism. It doesn't happen often, but sometimes in life there is simply right and wrong.
- edrxty 5y ago
  That's why I left the "at this time" caveat in there. Yeah, if the Russian military actually gets its shit together and manages an offensive that achieves that we need to reevaluate but...I don't think they have any chance of pulling that off. Their troops have spent weeks retreating from a meat grinder with nonexistent morale and will be asked to do it all again, "but it'll work this time". Further, would you take landlocked Ukraine and possible welfare state over a Sino-Russian axis? I think I would. This isn't "let's hear both sides" it's "this will get really nasty if we pull the old so-i-started-blasting strategy."
  - ramesh31 5y ago
    >This isn't "let's hear both sides" it's "this will get really nasty if we pull the old so-i-started-blasting strategy." It already is really nasty. Ask the people of Bucha. I think my overall point here is that the war has already begun, and we in the West are sticking our heads in the sand and praying for it to go away. History shows that evil men will stop at nothing short of a forced hand. And any talk of negotiation with Russia at this point sounds painfully like "peace in our time". There is no "choice" to avoid this conflict anymore. I wish to god that there was. But that choice was made 20 years ago when Ukraine was alienated from NATO. Our only option now is to accept the reality of our state of war with Russia, or to sit by and watch them win.
    - itsoktocry 5y ago
      >we in the West are sticking our heads in the sand and praying for it to go away. So you want boots on the ground? Whose? Yours? Your children's? Do you think that will lead to less bloodshed? Negotiation is the way out.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > Negotiation is the way out. Negotiation isn't a way out against an aggressor who isn't convinced that you can and will use force otherwise. What you have then is at best surrender to their current demands and hope they don't decide to see what they can take you for next after that. This isn’t novel territory.
      - ramesh31 5y ago
        >So you want boots on the ground? Whose? Yours? Your children's? Boots are already on the ground. Ukrainians childrens boots. They are already fighting the largest land battle in european history since World War II at this very moment. Russia has already taken greater losses than Germany did with the invasion of Poland. Ukraine's fate is our own. And the longer we pretend this is just another foreign conflict, the more danger we will be in.
      - jcranmer 5y ago
- secondcoming 5y ago
  Transnistria is the interesting one. If Russia eventually goes into Moldova to 'liberate the Russians there' then we know the narrative around Ukraine was total bullshit (it's absolutely true that Ukraine treated those in separatist areas poorly for years).
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > (it's absolutely true that Ukraine treated those in separatist areas poorly for years). The “separatist areas” are a product of the first wave of the current Russian invasion; they weren't pure homegrown movements, Russian troops, both regulars and the Wagner “private” military company that is Russian and appears to work exclusively for Russian state interests were involved in the fighting which established them, around the same time as the Russia also seized Crimea. We’ve know the justifications of the wave of Russian invasions starting with Georgia in 2008 has been bullshit since the beginning, and people who haven't figured it out in the last 14 years aren't particularly like to click over with a new round in Moldova.
  - lostlogin 5y ago
    Given how Russia treats its own citizen and how the Russian state views human rights, I’m surprised anyone believe Russia’s claim that it’s defending its people.
- itsoktocry 5y ago
  >Do not fall for "let's hear both sides" whataboutism. Your comment is spot on, but this is strange. It is complex; there are two sides. The ideals of "Western civilization" aren't held by the globe, so it's important to understand why things work the way they do. It isn't "good" versus "evil".
  - salawat 5y ago
    Nah. There is one side. Two collectives competing over influence and sovereignty. The West, advocating for everyone has their lines and we're good, and Russia now going imperialist/expansionist. NAP. Don't start nothing, won't be nothing. Russia started something. There is now something. Failure to respond and restore the equilibrium is tacit acceptance of Russia setting terms, which sets a precedent. It's pretty clear.
    - futureshock 5y ago
      Though to be fair, the West 's position is everyone has their lines but plays by our rules. The western governments put huge pressure on the rest of the world to conform their laws and norms to be beneficial to the globalized world order they themselves invented. This world order includes good things like human rights and rule of law, but also questionable things like the deck being heavily stacked in favor of the incumbents and winner takes all hypercapitalism.
  - fhood 5y ago
    Watching the actions of the Russian and Chinese governments over the past few months I think the issue has gotten much more black and white than these things usually are. Not necessarily good vs evil, as that is too subjective, but definitely somewhat of an ideological standoff between truth and...not truth.
    - futureshock 5y ago
      I am absolutely on the side of the Ukraine and the West, but that is too simple. We are also post-truth. I think we are much closer to the real truth than Russia state media, but the president calling Ukraine a genocide is inventing a new definition for the term.
- thriftwy 5y ago
  Russia has to take Odessa to do what you have described, and at the moment it looks like it can't.
  - ramesh31 5y ago
    >Russia has to take Odessa to do what you have described, and at the moment it looks like it can't. It seems like people have forgotten that wars last longer than a month. This will be a years long proccess of attrition if it isn't stopped.
- kevin_b_er 5y ago
  I would argue a greater threat is the attack upon democracy in the United States. One of the major political parties now rejects election results they do not win. A fall of the United States to a fascism that is allied to Putin would very likely be worse for Europe and "Western" society.
- kcatskcolbdi 5y ago
  The world order of national sovereignty ends because Ukraine loses eastern territory? There have been much greater refugee crisis' (Syria, for example) that has not resulted in the entire fall of civilization. Having a prolonged conflict over Ukraine would be great for Northrup Grumman and Delloit. Finding a peaceful, quick diplomatic resolution will be better for the rest of the world.
  - jcranmer 5y ago
    > There have been much greater refugee crisis' (Syria, for example) that has not resulted in the entire fall of civilization. Ukraine has, as of now, produced 4.7 million refugees, with another ~7 million internally-displaced people. That is over the course of 6 weeks. The Syrian Civil War took 4 years to reach that refugee population, and currently stands at about 6-7 million refugees with roughly an equivalent number of IDP. If the Ukrainian war persists for several months (which sadly seems likely), then the Ukrainian refugee count will eclipse the decade-long Syrian refugee count by the end of the year. Syria's refugee crisis--itself the biggest since WW2--isn't exactly "much greater" than Ukrainian's refugee crisis; if anything, it's the other way around.
- helij 5y ago
  This 'national sovereignty' and 'world order' degrade didn't start with this war. Russians are now just using our double standards. They don't recognise our sui generis. You can call it whataboutism or however you like. World order is a thing for powers to sort and national sovereignty is just an illusion for smaller and weaker countries. Call me a cynic...
baq 5y ago
- countvonbalzac 5y ago
  What a lazy comment.
  - antisthenes 5y ago
    It's not. Contrarian takes on the internet are 90% trolling and 9% clueless/bad faith arguments being presented as if they had the same weight of evidence behind them as the (usually) established view. The 1% of actually contrarian arguments are usually well received, even if they differ significantly from the status quo or say something outside the Overton window.
salawat 5y ago
You're a few steps behind the ball my friend. The overtures of Sino backing of Russia have been pretty loudly resonating over the last few years. The neutrality now likely being a consequence of trying to gauge whether the U.S. is actually willing to flex in response to an invasion by another nuclear power. They've had their eyes on Taiwan, and if their leadership thinks they can get away with it, they'll likely give it the old Hong Kong treatment. Especially since Ukraine, being the leading source of neon, is also a sizable link in the U.S. semiconductor supply chain. Not quite as big ticket as TSMC, but big enough to serve as a useful gauge for strategists and planners. Gen Z has little or no exposure to outright saber rattling. Just proxy wars, which globalization somewhat optimized for until realpolitik came back around to start biting once folks started understanding the soft power play of post cold war economics. 3 generation rule at play. We've got the direct witnesses of heavy geopolitical action on the way out. The boomers->X->Millenial know the aftershocks, and at least know what didn't work for the "The Greatest Generation". Z and forward are a refreshing breath of fresh air in de-bullshitting, and have access the way more information than any previous generation had all at one time, but that's a vulnerability at the same time without strong bullshit filters, and a collective sense of both unity and the real. The Real* is not entirely a "here's your canned reality" from the media, but a collective and relatable ground truth experience that crosscuts the population. I'm afraid one thing we've really dropped the ball on is as teachers, and institutional raisers and propagaters of strong bullshit filters. Especially given the information augmented battlefield of today. Definitely keep doing what you're doing though. Ain't no way to get the head for it but to do it.
- edrxty 5y ago
  Interesting points but I'm struggling to find the thesis here, at least with respect to military intervention. Russia and China have a weird relationship. They were, in a way, born together into their current statuses, but Russia isn't Soviet anymore and they don't necessarily represent the image China is going for. Meanwhile Russia wants China for it's economic might and China probably has an interest in resources and land north of Beijing, but at the moment any agreement wouldn't net much for China and represents a great deal of risk in the long term.
  - 5y ago
fhood 5y ago
What about this issue is particularly complex? Other than nuclear weapons? Russia has spent the last 20 years acting with total impunity, relying on a western reluctance to intervene. Russia is a world power if they are allowed to throw their weight around without consequence. The only reason not directly aid Ukraine in securing their borders is the threat of nuclear war. China is not going to got war with Russia against the US because of military intervention inside Ukraine's borders. That is an insane claim.
- edrxty 5y ago
  >only...nuclear war Uhhhh 0_o That seems like a good reason in its own right... Right? That said, they're suffering a lot of consequence at the moment so it's worth letting that pan out. The west drastically overestimated their capability, by that standard NK is a world power. I get it, I don't think your position there is wrong but...semantics. >China is not going to [go to] war with Russia against the US Never claimed that. The game for China is if they don't provide material aid, they get to maintain better relations with the west. I think the west broadly misunderstands their goals for international standing. They want to be recognized but if push comes to shove they'll just buddy up with Russia. Best to not provoke that. If the US decides to world police some more, along with three EU, that makes world policing the standard for world power and China will happily rise to that. They're very much watching what we do here.
  - fhood 5y ago
    China's government, like Russia's uses the west as a tool to consolidate power. The western world, and specifically NATO (which is really just another world for America in this context) serve as a looming enemy. We have now clearly seen that the actual actions of the West do not matter. China and Russia suffer from intense corruption, low overall standards of living, and the massive income and power gaps that arise from these types of governments. Western democracy ain't perfect, but there is a good chance that given the ability to accurately compare their options the Chinese and Russian populace would start to push back against the power structures. You can see this in the case of Hong Kong, and in Ukraine's westward trajectory. Thus the people in power need to control information and unify the population in order to stay in power. If the west doesn't directly provide ammunition for this information war, they will just make it up. And they already do this. I have come to realize over the last 5 years or so that China and Russia have ZERO information in maintaining a truly friendly relationship with western (there needs to be a word for this that doesn't ignore Japan and Korea) democracies. They will continue to act in whatever fashion preserves the power structure, and that will include simply inventing threats. Such as Ukraines doomed bid to join NATO.
vannevar 5y ago
> I applaud my generation for being skeptical, at least from an intervention POV. As I read it, the poll was not about the wisdom of intervention. I think even the older generation is extremely wary of direct military action by the West againt Russia. Rather, the poll is about the relative moral position of the two combatants. And I think the sympathy for Russia among the young reflected in the poll probably stems from comparative indifference and skepticism about world politics (leading to a tendency to simply ignore the subject), and different media consumption habits. Young people don't watch nearly as much television news, they tend to absorb their news through social media (which of course is filtered through their friends, who also tend to share the same indifference to global politics). It becomes a case of the blind leading the blind.

by edrxty 5y ago

ramesh31 5y ago

>I still side strongly with Ukraine but this is a complex issue and rolling the tanks against a country with less GDP than NY does not make the world inherently safer. Putin takes Luhansk and Donestsk, consolidates the southern coast, and links to Transnistria. Ukraine is now a landlocked welfare case for Europe, with millions of refugees streaming out and a government in collapse. Just like that, Russia has a salient into Western europe, and the world order of national sovereignty comes to an end. There is no complexity to the issue. This is the clearest, most mortal threat to Western civilization since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Do not fall for "let's hear both sides" whataboutism. It doesn't happen often, but sometimes in life there is simply right and wrong.

edrxty 5y ago
That's why I left the "at this time" caveat in there. Yeah, if the Russian military actually gets its shit together and manages an offensive that achieves that we need to reevaluate but...I don't think they have any chance of pulling that off. Their troops have spent weeks retreating from a meat grinder with nonexistent morale and will be asked to do it all again, "but it'll work this time". Further, would you take landlocked Ukraine and possible welfare state over a Sino-Russian axis? I think I would. This isn't "let's hear both sides" it's "this will get really nasty if we pull the old so-i-started-blasting strategy."
- ramesh31 5y ago
  >This isn't "let's hear both sides" it's "this will get really nasty if we pull the old so-i-started-blasting strategy." It already is really nasty. Ask the people of Bucha. I think my overall point here is that the war has already begun, and we in the West are sticking our heads in the sand and praying for it to go away. History shows that evil men will stop at nothing short of a forced hand. And any talk of negotiation with Russia at this point sounds painfully like "peace in our time". There is no "choice" to avoid this conflict anymore. I wish to god that there was. But that choice was made 20 years ago when Ukraine was alienated from NATO. Our only option now is to accept the reality of our state of war with Russia, or to sit by and watch them win.
  - itsoktocry 5y ago
    >we in the West are sticking our heads in the sand and praying for it to go away. So you want boots on the ground? Whose? Yours? Your children's? Do you think that will lead to less bloodshed? Negotiation is the way out.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > Negotiation is the way out. Negotiation isn't a way out against an aggressor who isn't convinced that you can and will use force otherwise. What you have then is at best surrender to their current demands and hope they don't decide to see what they can take you for next after that. This isn’t novel territory.
    - ramesh31 5y ago
      >So you want boots on the ground? Whose? Yours? Your children's? Boots are already on the ground. Ukrainians childrens boots. They are already fighting the largest land battle in european history since World War II at this very moment. Russia has already taken greater losses than Germany did with the invasion of Poland. Ukraine's fate is our own. And the longer we pretend this is just another foreign conflict, the more danger we will be in.
    - jcranmer 5y ago
secondcoming 5y ago
Transnistria is the interesting one. If Russia eventually goes into Moldova to 'liberate the Russians there' then we know the narrative around Ukraine was total bullshit (it's absolutely true that Ukraine treated those in separatist areas poorly for years).
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > (it's absolutely true that Ukraine treated those in separatist areas poorly for years). The “separatist areas” are a product of the first wave of the current Russian invasion; they weren't pure homegrown movements, Russian troops, both regulars and the Wagner “private” military company that is Russian and appears to work exclusively for Russian state interests were involved in the fighting which established them, around the same time as the Russia also seized Crimea. We’ve know the justifications of the wave of Russian invasions starting with Georgia in 2008 has been bullshit since the beginning, and people who haven't figured it out in the last 14 years aren't particularly like to click over with a new round in Moldova.
- lostlogin 5y ago
  Given how Russia treats its own citizen and how the Russian state views human rights, I’m surprised anyone believe Russia’s claim that it’s defending its people.
itsoktocry 5y ago
>Do not fall for "let's hear both sides" whataboutism. Your comment is spot on, but this is strange. It is complex; there are two sides. The ideals of "Western civilization" aren't held by the globe, so it's important to understand why things work the way they do. It isn't "good" versus "evil".
- salawat 5y ago
  Nah. There is one side. Two collectives competing over influence and sovereignty. The West, advocating for everyone has their lines and we're good, and Russia now going imperialist/expansionist. NAP. Don't start nothing, won't be nothing. Russia started something. There is now something. Failure to respond and restore the equilibrium is tacit acceptance of Russia setting terms, which sets a precedent. It's pretty clear.
  - futureshock 5y ago
    Though to be fair, the West 's position is everyone has their lines but plays by our rules. The western governments put huge pressure on the rest of the world to conform their laws and norms to be beneficial to the globalized world order they themselves invented. This world order includes good things like human rights and rule of law, but also questionable things like the deck being heavily stacked in favor of the incumbents and winner takes all hypercapitalism.
- fhood 5y ago
  Watching the actions of the Russian and Chinese governments over the past few months I think the issue has gotten much more black and white than these things usually are. Not necessarily good vs evil, as that is too subjective, but definitely somewhat of an ideological standoff between truth and...not truth.
  - futureshock 5y ago
    I am absolutely on the side of the Ukraine and the West, but that is too simple. We are also post-truth. I think we are much closer to the real truth than Russia state media, but the president calling Ukraine a genocide is inventing a new definition for the term.
thriftwy 5y ago
Russia has to take Odessa to do what you have described, and at the moment it looks like it can't.
- ramesh31 5y ago
  >Russia has to take Odessa to do what you have described, and at the moment it looks like it can't. It seems like people have forgotten that wars last longer than a month. This will be a years long proccess of attrition if it isn't stopped.
kevin_b_er 5y ago
I would argue a greater threat is the attack upon democracy in the United States. One of the major political parties now rejects election results they do not win. A fall of the United States to a fascism that is allied to Putin would very likely be worse for Europe and "Western" society.
kcatskcolbdi 5y ago
The world order of national sovereignty ends because Ukraine loses eastern territory? There have been much greater refugee crisis' (Syria, for example) that has not resulted in the entire fall of civilization. Having a prolonged conflict over Ukraine would be great for Northrup Grumman and Delloit. Finding a peaceful, quick diplomatic resolution will be better for the rest of the world.
- jcranmer 5y ago
  > There have been much greater refugee crisis' (Syria, for example) that has not resulted in the entire fall of civilization. Ukraine has, as of now, produced 4.7 million refugees, with another ~7 million internally-displaced people. That is over the course of 6 weeks. The Syrian Civil War took 4 years to reach that refugee population, and currently stands at about 6-7 million refugees with roughly an equivalent number of IDP. If the Ukrainian war persists for several months (which sadly seems likely), then the Ukrainian refugee count will eclipse the decade-long Syrian refugee count by the end of the year. Syria's refugee crisis--itself the biggest since WW2--isn't exactly "much greater" than Ukrainian's refugee crisis; if anything, it's the other way around.
helij 5y ago
This 'national sovereignty' and 'world order' degrade didn't start with this war. Russians are now just using our double standards. They don't recognise our sui generis. You can call it whataboutism or however you like. World order is a thing for powers to sort and national sovereignty is just an illusion for smaller and weaker countries. Call me a cynic...

baq 5y ago

countvonbalzac 5y ago
What a lazy comment.
- antisthenes 5y ago
  It's not. Contrarian takes on the internet are 90% trolling and 9% clueless/bad faith arguments being presented as if they had the same weight of evidence behind them as the (usually) established view. The 1% of actually contrarian arguments are usually well received, even if they differ significantly from the status quo or say something outside the Overton window.

salawat 5y ago

You're a few steps behind the ball my friend. The overtures of Sino backing of Russia have been pretty loudly resonating over the last few years. The neutrality now likely being a consequence of trying to gauge whether the U.S. is actually willing to flex in response to an invasion by another nuclear power. They've had their eyes on Taiwan, and if their leadership thinks they can get away with it, they'll likely give it the old Hong Kong treatment. Especially since Ukraine, being the leading source of neon, is also a sizable link in the U.S. semiconductor supply chain. Not quite as big ticket as TSMC, but big enough to serve as a useful gauge for strategists and planners. Gen Z has little or no exposure to outright saber rattling. Just proxy wars, which globalization somewhat optimized for until realpolitik came back around to start biting once folks started understanding the soft power play of post cold war economics. 3 generation rule at play. We've got the direct witnesses of heavy geopolitical action on the way out. The boomers->X->Millenial know the aftershocks, and at least know what didn't work for the "The Greatest Generation". Z and forward are a refreshing breath of fresh air in de-bullshitting, and have access the way more information than any previous generation had all at one time, but that's a vulnerability at the same time without strong bullshit filters, and a collective sense of both unity and the real. The Real* is not entirely a "here's your canned reality" from the media, but a collective and relatable ground truth experience that crosscuts the population. I'm afraid one thing we've really dropped the ball on is as teachers, and institutional raisers and propagaters of strong bullshit filters. Especially given the information augmented battlefield of today. Definitely keep doing what you're doing though. Ain't no way to get the head for it but to do it.

edrxty 5y ago
Interesting points but I'm struggling to find the thesis here, at least with respect to military intervention. Russia and China have a weird relationship. They were, in a way, born together into their current statuses, but Russia isn't Soviet anymore and they don't necessarily represent the image China is going for. Meanwhile Russia wants China for it's economic might and China probably has an interest in resources and land north of Beijing, but at the moment any agreement wouldn't net much for China and represents a great deal of risk in the long term.
- 5y ago

fhood 5y ago

What about this issue is particularly complex? Other than nuclear weapons? Russia has spent the last 20 years acting with total impunity, relying on a western reluctance to intervene. Russia is a world power if they are allowed to throw their weight around without consequence. The only reason not directly aid Ukraine in securing their borders is the threat of nuclear war. China is not going to got war with Russia against the US because of military intervention inside Ukraine's borders. That is an insane claim.

edrxty 5y ago
>only...nuclear war Uhhhh 0_o That seems like a good reason in its own right... Right? That said, they're suffering a lot of consequence at the moment so it's worth letting that pan out. The west drastically overestimated their capability, by that standard NK is a world power. I get it, I don't think your position there is wrong but...semantics. >China is not going to [go to] war with Russia against the US Never claimed that. The game for China is if they don't provide material aid, they get to maintain better relations with the west. I think the west broadly misunderstands their goals for international standing. They want to be recognized but if push comes to shove they'll just buddy up with Russia. Best to not provoke that. If the US decides to world police some more, along with three EU, that makes world policing the standard for world power and China will happily rise to that. They're very much watching what we do here.
- fhood 5y ago
  China's government, like Russia's uses the west as a tool to consolidate power. The western world, and specifically NATO (which is really just another world for America in this context) serve as a looming enemy. We have now clearly seen that the actual actions of the West do not matter. China and Russia suffer from intense corruption, low overall standards of living, and the massive income and power gaps that arise from these types of governments. Western democracy ain't perfect, but there is a good chance that given the ability to accurately compare their options the Chinese and Russian populace would start to push back against the power structures. You can see this in the case of Hong Kong, and in Ukraine's westward trajectory. Thus the people in power need to control information and unify the population in order to stay in power. If the west doesn't directly provide ammunition for this information war, they will just make it up. And they already do this. I have come to realize over the last 5 years or so that China and Russia have ZERO information in maintaining a truly friendly relationship with western (there needs to be a word for this that doesn't ignore Japan and Korea) democracies. They will continue to act in whatever fashion preserves the power structure, and that will include simply inventing threats. Such as Ukraines doomed bid to join NATO.

vannevar 5y ago

> I applaud my generation for being skeptical, at least from an intervention POV. As I read it, the poll was not about the wisdom of intervention. I think even the older generation is extremely wary of direct military action by the West againt Russia. Rather, the poll is about the relative moral position of the two combatants. And I think the sympathy for Russia among the young reflected in the poll probably stems from comparative indifference and skepticism about world politics (leading to a tendency to simply ignore the subject), and different media consumption habits. Young people don't watch nearly as much television news, they tend to absorb their news through social media (which of course is filtered through their friends, who also tend to share the same indifference to global politics). It becomes a case of the blind leading the blind.