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I can give you higher odds, but I will have to ask for a longer string of same side. Say like 20 in a row. In essence I will be gambling that there will be mor
by danamit 4y ago
I can give you higher odds, but I will have to ask for a longer string of same side. Say like 20 in a row.
In essence I will be gambling that there will be more 20 in a row same side than 21 in a row same side, which might be probably true, I have to test it.
Edit: in reply to your edit, I will do this "virtual" bet and update this comment with the result. I will try to tweak it to be in my favor, if there is no way to do so, then I guess the gamble fallacy is a real fallacy.
PS: not an actual bet, just tinkering stuff (betting is haram).
- robinson7d 4y agoNot believing in Gambler’s Fallacy is already believing there will be more “20 in a row same side than 21 in a row same side” - its believing there are 50% more in a way. After the 20 have landed the next flip will still be 50/50. Just as 20 perfectly alternating heads/tails/heads/tails will lead to another 50/50 chance, or any other potential pattern the past may have held.
- Dylan16807 4y ago> In essence I will be gambling that there will be more 20 in a row same side than 21 in a row same side, which might be probably true, I have to test it. I think you're missing a subtlety here. It's true that 20 in a row is twice as common as 21 in a row. But 20 in a row is exactly as common as 21 or more in a row. When you bet on that coin toss, you're not betting on 20 vs. 21. You're betting on 20 vs. 21+. So it's 50:50. For every thousand times you reach 20, the bet that it ends at 20 wins about 500 times, and the bet that it goes above 20 wins about 250 + 125 + 62 + 31 + 16 + 8 + ... = 500 times.
- danamit 4y agoYou are right actually, no easy money for me :(