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>A lot of this feels 'right' and Dalio obviously has proven his investing chops, but I'm a little nervous about the rigor behind these arguments. Can't see any

>A lot of this feels 'right' and Dalio obviously has proven his investing chops, but I'm a little nervous about the rigor behind these arguments. Can't see any citations in this video - which, fine, most Youtube videos don't - but then the book also lacks citations(!) I think your confusion is that you're seeing this video for it's top layer. The USA took over as world order leader in the 1900s to 1950s or so. Wherein each empire has a parabolic curve. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 Where in that parabolic curve is the USA? It's still pre-top according to an actual source. It's not post-top like Dalio suggests. Debt levels might suggest the USA is getting to their top. In fact look at that space between the grey recessions. 2009->2020 was a good run. However, what happened there? 8 years of wealth redistribution under Obama. Ray Dalio says that's exactly how to prevent the inevitable pop. Biden just printed how much money for wealth redistribution? That's what ray dalio specifically recommended. What's another recommendation in the empire game? Education. What do you think happened in the last 10 years? People are smarter today because of the internet and their phone in their pocket. This has already been seen as revolutionary in education. The USA isn't over their peak. Ray Dalio knows that's true. Now think again about what this video really said.

SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
> People are smarter today because of the internet and their phone in their pocket. Is that so? From where I sit, it doesn’t seem access to the world’s information has been a factor in how “smart” people are at all. Slight aside, can you look up a single education metric improving since the creation of the Dept of Education?
- incomingpain 5y ago
  >Is that so? From where I sit, it doesn’t seem access to the world’s information has been a factor in how “smart” people are at all. So there are other factors other than 'smart' like blood pressure, stress, distraction, addictions. I'm not saying mobile phones have not come without troubles. 50 years ago the 'smart' people were your jeopardy folks who had tons of facts memorized. You can just google all those things instead and be just as smart. It is a reality that today someone with a cellphone is tremendously smarter. Better yet, simply having advanced science our facts are even better. >Slight aside, can you look up a single education metric improving since the creation of the Dept of Education? When the movie idiocracy came out it was common to show this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect Not even taking cellphones into effect people are tremendously smarter today. You're also probably seeking: https://www.oecd.org/education/ https://www.oecd.org/education/ where they track these things. They've expanded to other stuff that I don't necessarily agree with but to each their own.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Smarter how? Whatever you're referring to, it doesn't seem to actually produce better outcomes. The smart people who achieved success 50 years ago certainly didn't do it by memorizing a lot of facts.
    - incomingpain 5y ago
      >Smarter how? Whatever you're referring to, it doesn't seem to actually produce better outcomes. The smart people who achieved success 50 years ago certainly didn't do it by memorizing a lot of facts. I provided a couple big sources. I feel like it's generally considered that education is working well. Even consider the educational value of youtube. I have a video in my watch later on how to fix a leaning fence. I'm not sure what you might be asking for.
      - nradov 5y ago
        Your sources aren't relevant to the point. You haven't established any causality, or even made a plausible case for it. In the US at least, educational outcomes as measured by standardized tests haven't significantly improved.
- shagmin 5y ago
  At the very least high school graduation rates have generally gotten better [0]. I don't think people are smarter as in higher IQ, but I wouldn't underestimate how much benefit we've had. I'm sure I'm not the only one that's learned to program from tutorials on the internet. How much productivity has been gained just from stackoverflow alone? 1. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2020/03/02/are-americas-rising-high-school-graduation-rates-real-or-just-an-accountability-fueled-mirage/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2020/...
  - SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
    That’s not success. They are passing because we refuse to fail them. It would hurt feelings and future success chances. It’s entirely opposite of the point you want to make.
AnimalMuppet 5y ago
> Now think again about what this video really said. Don't vaguepost. If you've got a point, say it.
- incomingpain 5y ago
  >Don't vaguepost. If you've got a point, say it. Sorry, you're right. I just figured nobody was reading my post anyway and it was getting long. Obviously I'm not telepathic and don't know dalio knows, but he's a smart dude. I'm sure he looked at real gdp. It comes down to 'I found a problem that's 40 years out' or whatever #. It's not exciting. There's in fact multiple other huge problems to address first. Fossil fuel exhaustion, Top soil erosion, End of fertilizers and migration to meat eating, actual climate change thresholds, etc happens sooner. Though obviously none of those are until 10-30 years or so. It's not that he's blowing his issue out of proportion for $, well maybe he is, but he's saying what has to happen to prevent it and it has to start now. Obviously, education, no deficit spending, and wealth redistribution are his key 3. He's basically parroting Milton Friedman who identified this problem many decades before. Weapons of mass destruction break his predictions about post-top reality. China will NEVER be able to attack the USA directly. Nukes, bioweapons. Covid lab leak? You think the USA doesn't have something that could easily wipe out asia? We are in a different collapse situation for empires compared to each since QINQ.
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    Thanks. Not vagueposting, then. ("Vagueposting", in my book, is when someone wants to hint what their position is, but not actually say it. It's like dogwhistles, except that it's not necessarily about race. They want to attract people toward their position, without being exposed to the criticism that would come from an open statement of it - at least, that's what I suspect their motivation is. Thinking that your post is getting too long isn't the same thing at all. So, my apologies.)

SV_BubbleTime 5y ago

> People are smarter today because of the internet and their phone in their pocket. Is that so? From where I sit, it doesn’t seem access to the world’s information has been a factor in how “smart” people are at all. Slight aside, can you look up a single education metric improving since the creation of the Dept of Education?

incomingpain 5y ago
>Is that so? From where I sit, it doesn’t seem access to the world’s information has been a factor in how “smart” people are at all. So there are other factors other than 'smart' like blood pressure, stress, distraction, addictions. I'm not saying mobile phones have not come without troubles. 50 years ago the 'smart' people were your jeopardy folks who had tons of facts memorized. You can just google all those things instead and be just as smart. It is a reality that today someone with a cellphone is tremendously smarter. Better yet, simply having advanced science our facts are even better. >Slight aside, can you look up a single education metric improving since the creation of the Dept of Education? When the movie idiocracy came out it was common to show this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect Not even taking cellphones into effect people are tremendously smarter today. You're also probably seeking: https://www.oecd.org/education/ https://www.oecd.org/education/ where they track these things. They've expanded to other stuff that I don't necessarily agree with but to each their own.
- nradov 5y ago
  Smarter how? Whatever you're referring to, it doesn't seem to actually produce better outcomes. The smart people who achieved success 50 years ago certainly didn't do it by memorizing a lot of facts.
  - incomingpain 5y ago
    >Smarter how? Whatever you're referring to, it doesn't seem to actually produce better outcomes. The smart people who achieved success 50 years ago certainly didn't do it by memorizing a lot of facts. I provided a couple big sources. I feel like it's generally considered that education is working well. Even consider the educational value of youtube. I have a video in my watch later on how to fix a leaning fence. I'm not sure what you might be asking for.
    - nradov 5y ago
      Your sources aren't relevant to the point. You haven't established any causality, or even made a plausible case for it. In the US at least, educational outcomes as measured by standardized tests haven't significantly improved.
shagmin 5y ago
At the very least high school graduation rates have generally gotten better [0]. I don't think people are smarter as in higher IQ, but I wouldn't underestimate how much benefit we've had. I'm sure I'm not the only one that's learned to program from tutorials on the internet. How much productivity has been gained just from stackoverflow alone? 1. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2020/03/02/are-americas-rising-high-school-graduation-rates-real-or-just-an-accountability-fueled-mirage/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2020/...
- SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
  That’s not success. They are passing because we refuse to fail them. It would hurt feelings and future success chances. It’s entirely opposite of the point you want to make.

AnimalMuppet 5y ago

> Now think again about what this video really said. Don't vaguepost. If you've got a point, say it.

incomingpain 5y ago
>Don't vaguepost. If you've got a point, say it. Sorry, you're right. I just figured nobody was reading my post anyway and it was getting long. Obviously I'm not telepathic and don't know dalio knows, but he's a smart dude. I'm sure he looked at real gdp. It comes down to 'I found a problem that's 40 years out' or whatever #. It's not exciting. There's in fact multiple other huge problems to address first. Fossil fuel exhaustion, Top soil erosion, End of fertilizers and migration to meat eating, actual climate change thresholds, etc happens sooner. Though obviously none of those are until 10-30 years or so. It's not that he's blowing his issue out of proportion for $, well maybe he is, but he's saying what has to happen to prevent it and it has to start now. Obviously, education, no deficit spending, and wealth redistribution are his key 3. He's basically parroting Milton Friedman who identified this problem many decades before. Weapons of mass destruction break his predictions about post-top reality. China will NEVER be able to attack the USA directly. Nukes, bioweapons. Covid lab leak? You think the USA doesn't have something that could easily wipe out asia? We are in a different collapse situation for empires compared to each since QINQ.
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  Thanks. Not vagueposting, then. ("Vagueposting", in my book, is when someone wants to hint what their position is, but not actually say it. It's like dogwhistles, except that it's not necessarily about race. They want to attract people toward their position, without being exposed to the criticism that would come from an open statement of it - at least, that's what I suspect their motivation is. Thinking that your post is getting too long isn't the same thing at all. So, my apologies.)