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Hmm, CPI rose to 8.5% instead of the 8.4% estimate. Not sure where you are getting "under expected" from. Also, inflation isn't necessarily bad for markets.

Hmm, CPI rose to 8.5% instead of the 8.4% estimate. Not sure where you are getting "under expected" from. Also, inflation isn't necessarily bad for markets. What markets don't like is if the fed has to respond.

odonnellryan 5y ago
They are probably referring to core inflation... also fuel contributed massively to inflation in March, which was expected, but not expected to stay high forever.
- nightski 5y ago
  Of course, but the highest contributor was shelter/housing. Also if they are referring to core it's kind of important to make that distinction. It's not good to be loose with terminology around this just to make an argument stronger than it really is.
bachmeier 5y ago
The CPI includes energy prices.
matwood 5y ago
YoY which everyone knew was going to be high. Core month to month shows inflation is slowing. I think a lot of people have this doom fantasy of runaway inflation in the US, but it's likely to slow down quicker than people realize. Monetary supply is tightening (mortgage rates touching 5% now), and the supply chain is slowly getting back to normal. Heck, even gas prices have reversed where I am.
- nightski 5y ago
  I agree it may be slowing, but that's not what the parent asserted. I was just pointing out a mistake in their post. No where did they state "core" (unless it has been edited).
- 01100011 5y ago
  Go look at the number of ships parked off China right now and tell me with a straight face that the supply chain is getting back to normal. Europe is having to restructure it's economy to deal with reduced energy and materials inputs from aggressor nations. We still face a massive shortage of workers, particularly in logistics. I suspect we will see inflation remain steady or even increase later this year, barring a recession.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > people have this doom fantasy It’s a weirdly predictable phenomenon around American inflation discussions. Has it always been this way? Is it renewed interest in gold bugging or people sour about crypto losses?
  - the_gastropod 5y ago
    I have no idea. But it does seem to coincide with the booming interest in cryptocurrencies. I suspect crypto is many people's first introduction to basic economics and finance. Crypto has a very Hayekian / Libertarian bent, so I think it makes sense that this hyperinflation fear is so common 'round these parts.
- TrispusAttucks 5y ago
  The perception of inflation slowing on a month to month basis is an illusion caused by the release of oil from the us strategic reserve [1]. Just like QE is good as a short term solution to economic problems releasing strategic oil reserves to push down inflation (as it relates to oil) is a short-term fix that will likely exacerbated the problem in the medium to long term. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-strategic-oil-sale-speeds-fuel-price-fix-what-cost-2022-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-strategic-oil-sal...
  - matwood 5y ago
    Release from the strategic reserve is more PR/leverage/signal than anything. First, it takes time to actually do the release. Second, 180M barrels is nothing when then US uses ~20M barrels/day. So it's more of a signal that the US is about to start swinging a bigger stick to get oil production up, than it is an illusion.

odonnellryan 5y ago

They are probably referring to core inflation... also fuel contributed massively to inflation in March, which was expected, but not expected to stay high forever.

nightski 5y ago
Of course, but the highest contributor was shelter/housing. Also if they are referring to core it's kind of important to make that distinction. It's not good to be loose with terminology around this just to make an argument stronger than it really is.

bachmeier 5y ago

The CPI includes energy prices.

matwood 5y ago

YoY which everyone knew was going to be high. Core month to month shows inflation is slowing. I think a lot of people have this doom fantasy of runaway inflation in the US, but it's likely to slow down quicker than people realize. Monetary supply is tightening (mortgage rates touching 5% now), and the supply chain is slowly getting back to normal. Heck, even gas prices have reversed where I am.

nightski 5y ago
I agree it may be slowing, but that's not what the parent asserted. I was just pointing out a mistake in their post. No where did they state "core" (unless it has been edited).
01100011 5y ago
Go look at the number of ships parked off China right now and tell me with a straight face that the supply chain is getting back to normal. Europe is having to restructure it's economy to deal with reduced energy and materials inputs from aggressor nations. We still face a massive shortage of workers, particularly in logistics. I suspect we will see inflation remain steady or even increase later this year, barring a recession.
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> people have this doom fantasy It’s a weirdly predictable phenomenon around American inflation discussions. Has it always been this way? Is it renewed interest in gold bugging or people sour about crypto losses?
- the_gastropod 5y ago
  I have no idea. But it does seem to coincide with the booming interest in cryptocurrencies. I suspect crypto is many people's first introduction to basic economics and finance. Crypto has a very Hayekian / Libertarian bent, so I think it makes sense that this hyperinflation fear is so common 'round these parts.
TrispusAttucks 5y ago
The perception of inflation slowing on a month to month basis is an illusion caused by the release of oil from the us strategic reserve [1]. Just like QE is good as a short term solution to economic problems releasing strategic oil reserves to push down inflation (as it relates to oil) is a short-term fix that will likely exacerbated the problem in the medium to long term. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-strategic-oil-sale-speeds-fuel-price-fix-what-cost-2022-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-strategic-oil-sal...
- matwood 5y ago
  Release from the strategic reserve is more PR/leverage/signal than anything. First, it takes time to actually do the release. Second, 180M barrels is nothing when then US uses ~20M barrels/day. So it's more of a signal that the US is about to start swinging a bigger stick to get oil production up, than it is an illusion.