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The crisis is the mentality of people clinging to the belief that they are about to die if others don't (pick your poison): - mask, lock down, hide from others

The crisis is the mentality of people clinging to the belief that they are about to die if others don't (pick your poison): - mask, lock down, hide from others etc

onion2k 5y ago
Your criticism of people who believe it's still a crisis would carry more weight if about 500 people/day weren't dying of Covid[1] right now (average based on the last week - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-deaths-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-...). That's definitely less than the 4000+ deaths per day at peak, but it's still quite a lot. [1] Or 'with Covid' if you believe those people just happen to be dying of something else while having Covid.
- jtbayly 5y ago
  What percent of people in the US do you think have Covid right now? I ask because 7452 people die per day in the US on average, meaning 6.7% of the people who die now have Covid (using your 500/day figure). Clearly some die from and some happen to die with Covid. The difference could be estimated simplistically based on the percent of the population that currently has Covid. If 0.5% have Covid and 6.7% of the people who die have it, there is a correlation. If 5% have Covid and 6.7% of the people who die have it, there's not much correlation. (Of course, in the correlation case, it still doesn't prove causation, as the weakened immune systems of those who are dying may be unable to fight off Covid at the end.) I think the best way to evaluate is to look at excess deaths. But even there you've got data contamination from the measures that were taken (drinking deaths, suicides up, flu down, etc.) and no way to figure out exactly how many of the various increases and decreases are directly attributable to the Covid measures.
  - nicoburns 5y ago
    Are US hospitals/coroners not recording "from covid" and "with covid" separately? I've seen lots of anti-covid-prevention-measures people here in the UK make a big deal of this distinction as if nobody else had thought of it, but I've seen graphs based on official statistics which distinguish between the two groups in sources as mainstream as the BBC. At least here there's no need to estimate.
    - jtbayly 4y ago
      If you can find such numbers, I'd love to see them. > If the decedent tested positive for COVID, the virus also gets placed on the death certificate. Many of these people likely died with COVID, not from COVID, Grannis said. https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/opinion/ct-ptb-davich-covid-related-deaths-versus-covid-causal-deaths-st-0221-20210219-gdspo5vg2bgatim7efo4gmxjpq-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/opinion/... Here's an article about Australia, too: > Indeed, distinguishing between dying with and dying from COVID-19 may require a more complex investigation into the cause of a death, beyond citing a positive SARS-CoV-2 test that was completed prior to the person’s death. https://theconversation.com/died-from-or-died-with-covid-19-we-need-a-transparent-approach-to-counting-coronavirus-deaths-145438 https://theconversation.com/died-from-or-died-with-covid-19-...
      - nicoburns 4y ago
        I can't find the article I read before, but this one breaks it down for Wales: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643
- jandrewrogers 5y ago
  There are several causes of death that are responsible for 500+ deaths per day in the US, most of which are significantly preventable. We do not treat any of those causes of death as a crisis that requires intervention to the extent we have COVID. This obvious inconsistency is relevant to the discussion.
  - onion2k 5y ago
    There are several causes of death that are responsible for 500+ deaths per day in the US In the case of things like car crashes, there's a significant benefit of using cars that means we choose to tolerate deaths as part of the cost of having easy access to transport. The same is true of many things that kill people. The utility of the cause of the deaths means the cost is accepted. I don't think there's a strong argument in favor of the usefulness of Covid.
    - flyingfences 5y ago
      > I don't think there's a strong argument in favor of the usefulness of Covid. The strong argument is in favor of not living life as though we were amid a crisis, locked down and paranoid.
    - marcosdumay 5y ago
      There is a strong argument in favor of not locking people down, not closing the stores, not forbidding people to get together, etc. They are even stronger than anything you may think for private cars. There is even an argument in favor of not requiring masks. It's a much weaker one, but the benefits are not large either because masks on the general population are not very effective against omicron.
    - rubyist5eva 5y ago
      > I don't think there's a strong argument in favor of the usefulness of Covid. There is definitely a strong argument in favour of not shutting down an economy because of it.

The crisis is the mentality of people clinging to the belief that they are about to die if others don't (pick your poison): - mask, lock down, hide from others etc

onion2k 5y ago

Your criticism of people who believe it's still a crisis would carry more weight if about 500 people/day weren't dying of Covid[1] right now (average based on the last week - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-deaths-daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-...). That's definitely less than the 4000+ deaths per day at peak, but it's still quite a lot. [1] Or 'with Covid' if you believe those people just happen to be dying of something else while having Covid.

jtbayly 5y ago
What percent of people in the US do you think have Covid right now? I ask because 7452 people die per day in the US on average, meaning 6.7% of the people who die now have Covid (using your 500/day figure). Clearly some die from and some happen to die with Covid. The difference could be estimated simplistically based on the percent of the population that currently has Covid. If 0.5% have Covid and 6.7% of the people who die have it, there is a correlation. If 5% have Covid and 6.7% of the people who die have it, there's not much correlation. (Of course, in the correlation case, it still doesn't prove causation, as the weakened immune systems of those who are dying may be unable to fight off Covid at the end.) I think the best way to evaluate is to look at excess deaths. But even there you've got data contamination from the measures that were taken (drinking deaths, suicides up, flu down, etc.) and no way to figure out exactly how many of the various increases and decreases are directly attributable to the Covid measures.
- nicoburns 5y ago
  Are US hospitals/coroners not recording "from covid" and "with covid" separately? I've seen lots of anti-covid-prevention-measures people here in the UK make a big deal of this distinction as if nobody else had thought of it, but I've seen graphs based on official statistics which distinguish between the two groups in sources as mainstream as the BBC. At least here there's no need to estimate.
  - jtbayly 4y ago
    If you can find such numbers, I'd love to see them. > If the decedent tested positive for COVID, the virus also gets placed on the death certificate. Many of these people likely died with COVID, not from COVID, Grannis said. https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/opinion/ct-ptb-davich-covid-related-deaths-versus-covid-causal-deaths-st-0221-20210219-gdspo5vg2bgatim7efo4gmxjpq-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/opinion/... Here's an article about Australia, too: > Indeed, distinguishing between dying with and dying from COVID-19 may require a more complex investigation into the cause of a death, beyond citing a positive SARS-CoV-2 test that was completed prior to the person’s death. https://theconversation.com/died-from-or-died-with-covid-19-we-need-a-transparent-approach-to-counting-coronavirus-deaths-145438 https://theconversation.com/died-from-or-died-with-covid-19-...
    - nicoburns 4y ago
      I can't find the article I read before, but this one breaks it down for Wales: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643
jandrewrogers 5y ago
There are several causes of death that are responsible for 500+ deaths per day in the US, most of which are significantly preventable. We do not treat any of those causes of death as a crisis that requires intervention to the extent we have COVID. This obvious inconsistency is relevant to the discussion.
- onion2k 5y ago
  There are several causes of death that are responsible for 500+ deaths per day in the US In the case of things like car crashes, there's a significant benefit of using cars that means we choose to tolerate deaths as part of the cost of having easy access to transport. The same is true of many things that kill people. The utility of the cause of the deaths means the cost is accepted. I don't think there's a strong argument in favor of the usefulness of Covid.
  - flyingfences 5y ago
    > I don't think there's a strong argument in favor of the usefulness of Covid. The strong argument is in favor of not living life as though we were amid a crisis, locked down and paranoid.
  - marcosdumay 5y ago
    There is a strong argument in favor of not locking people down, not closing the stores, not forbidding people to get together, etc. They are even stronger than anything you may think for private cars. There is even an argument in favor of not requiring masks. It's a much weaker one, but the benefits are not large either because masks on the general population are not very effective against omicron.
  - rubyist5eva 5y ago
    > I don't think there's a strong argument in favor of the usefulness of Covid. There is definitely a strong argument in favour of not shutting down an economy because of it.