In my opinion yes. I learned a hard lesson when I bought a home in Q4 of 2007 at 21 years old. It didn’t help that I was planning to graduate from my undergrad

In my opinion yes. I learned a hard lesson when I bought a home in Q4 of 2007 at 21 years old. It didn’t help that I was planning to graduate from my undergrad in 2008. As many on HN, I try to learn from my mistakes… however, you can never time the market and I have been saying we are in a bubble since about a year before the pandemic. I live in Northern California if that matters. Why do I feel this way? The economy has been frothy for a while, it’s been irrational and appears to defy the laws of physics metaphorically speaking of course. 1. When taxi drivers and shoe shiners are giving real estate advice… 2. When a lot of young buyers have reached the age that they don’t remember the last bubble popping. 3. When you’ve been in a bull market for 9+ years 4. When people are buying JPEGs worth more than houses. (I am still bullish on crypto and NFTs, I just feel that we are early in the hype cycle) 5. When housing is viewed as an investment vs. A place to live. 6. When bad companies both private and public are not being held accountable by investors. (I have seen too many startups IPO, that in my opinion probably shouldn’t have been able to do so.) Some other things I track, but am not going to look into for this comment are the following; - how is 3M doing? As they are a supplier to many finished goods, if 3M isn’t doing well, perhaps it is an signal that there is a reckoning in the future. (I worked at 3M in 2008 and remember when the international markets stopped ordering products) - I also look at some products like RV sales, its a luxury good, I don’t know if this is as strong of an indicator today of a future recession, due to remote work and the rise of vanlife, but if you can think of similar goods that share these qualities that might be a good indicator, luxury good, sales price between $10k-$200k, not effected by other trends like wfh. - The Dallas Fed this we might be in a housing bubble. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0329 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0329 - Bank of America thinks we are near an economic slow down. https://fortune.com/2022/04/08/recession-shock-bank-of-america-delivers-grim-warning-future-inversion-yield-curve-economy-inflation/ https://fortune.com/2022/04/08/recession-shock-bank-of-ameri... I’m sure there are other sources, but when high income, educated people struggle to afford things, it makes me think that we might be in a bubble and asset prices need to at the very least correct to create marketplace liquidity. I would enjoy learning of other obscure market indicators that readers of HN monitor, if you know of one, please reply to this comment.