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Hong Kong had the highest death rate per capita globally in the last weeks when their containment policy failed. Leading to a mortality of over 0.1% in a short

Hong Kong had the highest death rate per capita globally in the last weeks when their containment policy failed. Leading to a mortality of over 0.1% in a short time. Hong Kong is a very rich area. Many other areas would fare much worse. The rest of the world is not "all-in" with vaccines. Vaccines are combined with waves of infection for the unvaccinated and vaccinated which lead to the death of 0.1% to 0.6% of the population in many countries. With each infection the immunity rises - leading to less severe infections in the future. The deaths are a high price to pay but many people think it's worth it to have a somewhat normal life again. As we know now, China was not very wise with their choice of vaccine and seemingly has no exit plan. Omicron is spreading very fast and due to a low prior immunity it would put an immense load on their medical system for months. Here's the link to an interactive graph showing the death rate per capita: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~HKG~CHN~Europe https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

ArchD 5y ago
61% of the deaths are of the elderly (> 70 yo) unvaccinated. 69% of the deaths are of the elderly (> 70 yo) with 0 or 1 vaccination doses. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7115e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7115e1.htm Table 2 The numbers you listed may seem scary at face value but viewed in the right context including compared to other mortality risks like flu and inhumane lockdown conditions where some people run out of food and other basic supplies or turn suicidal, the numbers do not support the conclusion that lockdown is the best way forward.
- threatripper 5y ago
  I don't say that lockdown is the best way when viewed in the rear mirror. But right now it's just a logical continuation of the policy they enacted in the past.
geokon 5y ago
What do you feel the "choice" with vaccines was? So even if they overlooked the politics/"optics", I don't think they could go to the Western pharmaceutical companies and just ask for 3 billion doses. With boosters it's looking like there isn't enough vaccine capacity for the world as it is. I don't think there was ever a real alternative other than a "zero covid strategy" What seems strange is that they haven't been able to quickly make an mRNA vaccine of their own. Supposedly South Africa has managed to pull it off, and I'd guess China has a much more advanced research/production capacity. Though it's also very possible it's happening and I just haven't heard of it :)
- threatripper 5y ago
  > I don't think they could go to the Western pharmaceutical companies and just ask for 3 billion doses. Ramping up production was a problem in the beginning but now it should not be a problem to produce enough shots to supply China. Even a single shot mRNA would improve immunity by a lot when combined with other vaccines. If China had ordered it in 2020 they would have received multiple doses per person by now. I have no idea why mRNA failed in China.
  - Reason077 5y ago
    > "I have no idea why mRNA failed in China." Classic case of "not invented here" syndrome?
    - threatripper 5y ago
      That surely played a part. But by now there would have been enough time to admit defeat and just order some from Europe.
      - dismalpedigree 5y ago
        You do realize you are talking about CCP admitting defeat? Should be obvious why it hasn’t happened.
csee 5y ago
Only because HK's elderly are not widely vaccinated, and also because Sinovac makes up about half of their vaccinations and this vaccine is not as good at preventing mortality. A very similar situation to Mainland China, actually. So the question still hasn't been answered. Why is Mainland China insisting on pursuing this inferior strategy? The hard-lockdown zero-Covid low-vaccination approach has been shown to be inferior to the alternative approach of ensuring 99% of the elderly are vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna, and then allowing society to open up once this is achieved. My understanding is their vaccination rates haven't gone up much since this outbreak started, which signals that they are not intent on changing course.
- Laforet 5y ago
  The imcumbent cabinet and politburo are going out of term later this year and a new list of names needs to be appointed and rubber stamped by the upcoming 20th CCP National Congress. The government essentially operate in caretaker mode for several months before the congress and any major policy reversal would be taboo as it could disrupt the political horse trading happening in the background. This is just not the time for course change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_National_Congress_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_National_Congress_of_the_... Ironically, a very similar situation played out in Wuhan . By mid December 2019 it was very clear that a deadly respiratory disease is in the community but the politicians were too preoccupied with the ongoing provincial party congress. Nobody in power was willing to take a bullet for announcing a pandemic until their posts are confirmed and secure. The rest is history.
  - threatripper 5y ago
    It says that the congress is in the second half of 2022. That's still months into the future. With Omicron it could be some "interesting times" in those months. Until when does the situation need to appear under control? When could they announce a change of course?
    - Laforet 5y ago
      >Until when does the situation need to appear under control? Barring major catastrophe, thing will continue to drift in the current direction until the Congress is "concluded in triumph" and the new government sworn in. So probably no sooner than October/November.
Reason077 5y ago
> "Hong Kong is a very rich area. Many other areas would fare much worse." Being rich or poor doesn't have too much to do with it. Hong Kong is badly affected because it has a very high population density combined with low vaccination rates.
- tenpies 5y ago
  Wealth did have a very strong effect, just not the one we usually see. Poorer countries faired better against the disease itself: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-deaths-of-covid-19-per-million-people-vs-gdp-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-deaths-of... And it's not population density either, otherwise Bangladesh and India would be leading the packs in deaths, but they're comfortably in the middle while much of Europe pushes the top. Where this falls apart is in government reaction to the disease, that has absolutely eviscerated the middle and poor classes.
  - Reason077 5y ago
    Despite having high overall population densities and some dense cities, India and Bangladesh are still largely (60-80%) rural populations. Totally different to Hong Kong where the population is >99% urban, living in cramped and often poorly-ventilated apartment towers.
  - fauigerzigerk 5y ago
    I think the very different age distribution explains a lot of that

ArchD 5y ago

61% of the deaths are of the elderly (> 70 yo) unvaccinated. 69% of the deaths are of the elderly (> 70 yo) with 0 or 1 vaccination doses. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7115e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7115e1.htm Table 2 The numbers you listed may seem scary at face value but viewed in the right context including compared to other mortality risks like flu and inhumane lockdown conditions where some people run out of food and other basic supplies or turn suicidal, the numbers do not support the conclusion that lockdown is the best way forward.

threatripper 5y ago
I don't say that lockdown is the best way when viewed in the rear mirror. But right now it's just a logical continuation of the policy they enacted in the past.

geokon 5y ago

What do you feel the "choice" with vaccines was? So even if they overlooked the politics/"optics", I don't think they could go to the Western pharmaceutical companies and just ask for 3 billion doses. With boosters it's looking like there isn't enough vaccine capacity for the world as it is. I don't think there was ever a real alternative other than a "zero covid strategy" What seems strange is that they haven't been able to quickly make an mRNA vaccine of their own. Supposedly South Africa has managed to pull it off, and I'd guess China has a much more advanced research/production capacity. Though it's also very possible it's happening and I just haven't heard of it :)

threatripper 5y ago
> I don't think they could go to the Western pharmaceutical companies and just ask for 3 billion doses. Ramping up production was a problem in the beginning but now it should not be a problem to produce enough shots to supply China. Even a single shot mRNA would improve immunity by a lot when combined with other vaccines. If China had ordered it in 2020 they would have received multiple doses per person by now. I have no idea why mRNA failed in China.
- Reason077 5y ago
  > "I have no idea why mRNA failed in China." Classic case of "not invented here" syndrome?
  - threatripper 5y ago
    That surely played a part. But by now there would have been enough time to admit defeat and just order some from Europe.
    - dismalpedigree 5y ago
      You do realize you are talking about CCP admitting defeat? Should be obvious why it hasn’t happened.

csee 5y ago

Only because HK's elderly are not widely vaccinated, and also because Sinovac makes up about half of their vaccinations and this vaccine is not as good at preventing mortality. A very similar situation to Mainland China, actually. So the question still hasn't been answered. Why is Mainland China insisting on pursuing this inferior strategy? The hard-lockdown zero-Covid low-vaccination approach has been shown to be inferior to the alternative approach of ensuring 99% of the elderly are vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna, and then allowing society to open up once this is achieved. My understanding is their vaccination rates haven't gone up much since this outbreak started, which signals that they are not intent on changing course.

Laforet 5y ago
The imcumbent cabinet and politburo are going out of term later this year and a new list of names needs to be appointed and rubber stamped by the upcoming 20th CCP National Congress. The government essentially operate in caretaker mode for several months before the congress and any major policy reversal would be taboo as it could disrupt the political horse trading happening in the background. This is just not the time for course change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_National_Congress_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_National_Congress_of_the_... Ironically, a very similar situation played out in Wuhan . By mid December 2019 it was very clear that a deadly respiratory disease is in the community but the politicians were too preoccupied with the ongoing provincial party congress. Nobody in power was willing to take a bullet for announcing a pandemic until their posts are confirmed and secure. The rest is history.
- threatripper 5y ago
  It says that the congress is in the second half of 2022. That's still months into the future. With Omicron it could be some "interesting times" in those months. Until when does the situation need to appear under control? When could they announce a change of course?
  - Laforet 5y ago
    >Until when does the situation need to appear under control? Barring major catastrophe, thing will continue to drift in the current direction until the Congress is "concluded in triumph" and the new government sworn in. So probably no sooner than October/November.

Reason077 5y ago

> "Hong Kong is a very rich area. Many other areas would fare much worse." Being rich or poor doesn't have too much to do with it. Hong Kong is badly affected because it has a very high population density combined with low vaccination rates.

tenpies 5y ago
Wealth did have a very strong effect, just not the one we usually see. Poorer countries faired better against the disease itself: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-deaths-of-covid-19-per-million-people-vs-gdp-per-capita https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-deaths-of... And it's not population density either, otherwise Bangladesh and India would be leading the packs in deaths, but they're comfortably in the middle while much of Europe pushes the top. Where this falls apart is in government reaction to the disease, that has absolutely eviscerated the middle and poor classes.
- Reason077 5y ago
  Despite having high overall population densities and some dense cities, India and Bangladesh are still largely (60-80%) rural populations. Totally different to Hong Kong where the population is >99% urban, living in cramped and often poorly-ventilated apartment towers.
- fauigerzigerk 5y ago
  I think the very different age distribution explains a lot of that