7 ms·

> On the other hand, I think long haul trucking will be one of, if not the first job to be 100% replaced by self-driving vehicles. As someone who spent a good

> On the other hand, I think long haul trucking will be one of, if not the first job to be 100% replaced by self-driving vehicles. As someone who spent a good portion of his career in robotics and specifically self-driving cars (including the big companies with billions of dollars, not the me-too startups), I disagree. Most people aren't as cynical as me, but I left the field entirely. I doubt it will happen within the decade, at least in a way that's profitable. I'm skeptical it will happen within 25 years. It's not hard to demo the technology to convince people it's almost here (I should know, as I often helped stage the demos for investors). But self-driving cars have been 2 years away for almost a decade now. I really think it's similar to nuclear fusion. Some people might remember when Google put a blind man in a self-driving car as a promotion. That was over 10 years ago. I'm not saying there has been no progress, but there is still a giant chasm of unsolved problems before getting to the finish line. https://www.theverge.com/2012/3/29/2910196/google-self-driving-car-video https://www.theverge.com/2012/3/29/2910196/google-self-drivi... That said, I'm happy to be wrong.

itake 5y ago
Humans need to choose job families that will exist their entire working life (40-50 years). Even if the technology takes 30 years to develop, drivers will be 50 years old and forced into early retirement due to. I suspect that driver shortages will get worse before they get better, b/c if we are "25 years out" from self driving long haul trucks, ppl will shy away from that job category so they don't get caught jobless before they are ready to retire.
- flukus 5y ago
  Assuming you live somewhere that's somewhat affordable and self driving is a couple of decades off then 95k/year to follow the FIRE model.
  - itake 5y ago
    Very very very very few people are both capable and interested in FIRE. Many software engineers could follow the FIRE model and retire before they are 40, but they choose to remain in the work force. Even FIRE bloggers don't actually FIRE. They continue to support their blog or get bored and return to the work force. Our brains are wired to "keep up with the Jone's".
gameshot911 5y ago
He only commented that when self-driving vehicles exist, long-haul trucking will be one of the first jobs replaced. Not how long it would take. I agree with him. IMO long-haul driving is the most ideal case for self-driving vehicles - the 'spherical cow' of physics. I imagine that they'll self-drive into depots right off the interstates, at which point humans will take over for the last leg.
- flukus 5y ago
  It might be a bit circular, but I'd go a step further and say that the lack of self driving in long haul trucking is evidence that general self driving is at least a decade away.
mathgladiator 5y ago
Having hauled a trailer, I'm not sure how an AI is going to deal with high wind or mountain passes. I think there is a naive understanding of long haul, but it is surprisingly hard to drive with a massive sail on your bed.
- eloff 5y ago
  Ironically those kinds of things are the things AI deals with most easily. That's all math and physics. The hard part is understanding the environment and adapting the the unexpected.
  - mathgladiator 5y ago
    That is the hard part, and the high wind on mountains create interesting and unexpected scenarios. Mountains are primarily a slow-going thing, but wind bursts create insane environments which are really only felt. It's going to be a factory of edge cases for both the AI to handle directly and interpret of other vehicles.
- ehnto 5y ago
  There is also the off-highway challenges, you still have all the same requirements as full car automation in dense districts, except now you're in a long and wide truck managing a highly-destructive amount of tonnage. Sure the majority is on the highway, but your trailer has a destination, and your truck a depot, and it's often somewhere dense and busy. I think for full automation soon, it could only happen for specific routes and operations that have set themselves up on the highways with minimal challenges off-highway. Like grain hauling. You could have the trailers dropped off at depots by bots and taken into town by drivers, but at that point you're building infrastructure specifically for highway hauling and still using local trucks for the last mile, you may as well have built a rail network.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - ovao 5y ago
hotpotamus 5y ago
This is my sense of things as an outsider, so it's nice to hear an inside account that matches up with that. That said, I wonder if there's some room for human and AI cooperation here to help the driver, perhaps with the humans as safety drivers able to focus on other tasks or perhaps even nap while the truck is under ideal self driving conditions and then take over when there is a situation ahead that requires human attention? From everything Truckers say, it's an extremely stressful job due to a number of factors, and I wonder if there is some way to apply technology to actually make the job more tolerable.
- maxbond 5y ago
  I would _love_ to see people pursue this sort of line. I see people make really simple mistakes that could be easily corrected when they drive. For instance, I think a HUD that told you how far ahead of you, in seconds, the next car was would do wonders. New drivers actually measure this and keep proper distance, but in my experience, experienced drivers adopt the norm of the driving culture, which is too short. I have asked people who care to be safe drivers how far the car ahead of them was, after I counted, and gotten answers that were way off. It's crazy to me people are so bullish on self driving cars. This is _exactly_ the sort of problem that humans are better at than computers - it's about exercising sound judgement in the face of novelty. I don't think humans are bad drivers, I think we have a toxic driving culture. I think if we found a way to professionalize driving, that didn't undermine the rights of employees by turning everyone into contractors, we could develop a healthy driving culture. Something closer to what exists in aviation. It is my observation that driving is not something you do with your full attention. It is a means to an end. And that leads to "get there itis", aggressive driving, all sorts of shenanigans.
  - ianai 5y ago
    Couldn’t agree more. Seeing body bags at accidents on just about every commute in a large city (LV) between home/school really made that point for me. It started to feel like that city was engaging in some weird daily sacrifice since no one talks about “gee maybe we should drive more safely?” Or just ludicrously violent.
randmeerkat 5y ago
> But self-driving cars have been 2 years away for almost a decade now. I really think it's similar to nuclear fusion. Literally last week it was being discussed that Waymo now offers full self driving in SF right now. Unless I’m missing something, the future you’re saying is akin to fusion has just happened. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30855624 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30855624
- Fezzik 5y ago
  If you look in to why Waymo started “full self driving” in Arizona and, now, San Francisco it’s because the cars cannot even drive in light rain and the entire fleet is garaged with even mild inclement weather. We are still lightyears away from actual self-driving cars that can manage variable weather and even slightly-unpredictable terrain.
  - randmeerkat 5y ago
    > If you look in to why Waymo started “full self driving” in Arizona and, now, San Francisco it’s because the cars cannot even drive in light rain and the entire fleet is garaged with even mild inclement weather. We are still lightyears away from actual self-driving cars that can manage variable weather and even slightly-unpredictable terrain. It rains in SF and there’s even fog… The fog’s name is Karl by the way. It’s also an old coastal city that doesn’t have a sane layout that you might expect from a test area like Arizona. SF is not an easy challenge and there are plenty of self-driving startups that have tried there and failed.
    - thereare5lights 5y ago
      > It rains in SF It hasn't rained regularly for years. We're in a bad drought, or as some other people put it, a new normal of very little rainfall.
  - rrrrrrrrrrrryan 5y ago
    Self-driving cars that "only" work on non-rainy days = self-driving cars available 90%+ of the time in sunbelt states. I have no idea why people minimize level 4 self driving. It would absolutely be enough for most people in those geofenced areas/cities to no longer need a car, would massively drive down drunk-driving deaths, and would be a huge benefit for the blind, the elderly, the rural poor, children, etc.
weq 5y ago
Tow truck drivers are making a killing on youtube right now. Humans cant drive cars/trucks/properly; robots have no chance. Not with the current tech promoted as "AI".
Brian_K_White 5y ago
Maybe it's not hapoening soon, but what they said was that it would happen there first. You don't think it will happen in simpler environments before more complex ones? I think the first examples, whenever that happens to be, will be on highways and more than that, only between special endpoints, IE yards with their own ramps. The vehicle never leaves the highway or the dedicated enpoints, no local ramps. possibly special areas of some rest stops for charging. They will be just a new form of port or train station.
ozim 5y ago
I think I agree as I am not in that space my go to reason is that if it would be easy, we would have fully automated trains with no train drivers already.
hemreldop 5y ago
Waymo is San Francisco is actually doing a fantastic job. With just what we have there we could do most driving, maybe even including last mile.
throw0101a 4y ago
What about SAE Level 2 self-driving à la the Comma Three: the driver is still there, but turning and braking is taken care of by the computer. Automate the drudgery to reduce mental fatigue. The operator is just there to scan the conditions and make sure nothing is going off the rails.

itake 5y ago

Humans need to choose job families that will exist their entire working life (40-50 years). Even if the technology takes 30 years to develop, drivers will be 50 years old and forced into early retirement due to. I suspect that driver shortages will get worse before they get better, b/c if we are "25 years out" from self driving long haul trucks, ppl will shy away from that job category so they don't get caught jobless before they are ready to retire.

flukus 5y ago
Assuming you live somewhere that's somewhat affordable and self driving is a couple of decades off then 95k/year to follow the FIRE model.
- itake 5y ago
  Very very very very few people are both capable and interested in FIRE. Many software engineers could follow the FIRE model and retire before they are 40, but they choose to remain in the work force. Even FIRE bloggers don't actually FIRE. They continue to support their blog or get bored and return to the work force. Our brains are wired to "keep up with the Jone's".

gameshot911 5y ago

He only commented that when self-driving vehicles exist, long-haul trucking will be one of the first jobs replaced. Not how long it would take. I agree with him. IMO long-haul driving is the most ideal case for self-driving vehicles - the 'spherical cow' of physics. I imagine that they'll self-drive into depots right off the interstates, at which point humans will take over for the last leg.

flukus 5y ago
It might be a bit circular, but I'd go a step further and say that the lack of self driving in long haul trucking is evidence that general self driving is at least a decade away.

mathgladiator 5y ago

Having hauled a trailer, I'm not sure how an AI is going to deal with high wind or mountain passes. I think there is a naive understanding of long haul, but it is surprisingly hard to drive with a massive sail on your bed.

eloff 5y ago
Ironically those kinds of things are the things AI deals with most easily. That's all math and physics. The hard part is understanding the environment and adapting the the unexpected.
- mathgladiator 5y ago
  That is the hard part, and the high wind on mountains create interesting and unexpected scenarios. Mountains are primarily a slow-going thing, but wind bursts create insane environments which are really only felt. It's going to be a factory of edge cases for both the AI to handle directly and interpret of other vehicles.
ehnto 5y ago
There is also the off-highway challenges, you still have all the same requirements as full car automation in dense districts, except now you're in a long and wide truck managing a highly-destructive amount of tonnage. Sure the majority is on the highway, but your trailer has a destination, and your truck a depot, and it's often somewhere dense and busy. I think for full automation soon, it could only happen for specific routes and operations that have set themselves up on the highways with minimal challenges off-highway. Like grain hauling. You could have the trailers dropped off at depots by bots and taken into town by drivers, but at that point you're building infrastructure specifically for highway hauling and still using local trucks for the last mile, you may as well have built a rail network.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- ovao 5y ago

hotpotamus 5y ago

This is my sense of things as an outsider, so it's nice to hear an inside account that matches up with that. That said, I wonder if there's some room for human and AI cooperation here to help the driver, perhaps with the humans as safety drivers able to focus on other tasks or perhaps even nap while the truck is under ideal self driving conditions and then take over when there is a situation ahead that requires human attention? From everything Truckers say, it's an extremely stressful job due to a number of factors, and I wonder if there is some way to apply technology to actually make the job more tolerable.

maxbond 5y ago
I would _love_ to see people pursue this sort of line. I see people make really simple mistakes that could be easily corrected when they drive. For instance, I think a HUD that told you how far ahead of you, in seconds, the next car was would do wonders. New drivers actually measure this and keep proper distance, but in my experience, experienced drivers adopt the norm of the driving culture, which is too short. I have asked people who care to be safe drivers how far the car ahead of them was, after I counted, and gotten answers that were way off. It's crazy to me people are so bullish on self driving cars. This is _exactly_ the sort of problem that humans are better at than computers - it's about exercising sound judgement in the face of novelty. I don't think humans are bad drivers, I think we have a toxic driving culture. I think if we found a way to professionalize driving, that didn't undermine the rights of employees by turning everyone into contractors, we could develop a healthy driving culture. Something closer to what exists in aviation. It is my observation that driving is not something you do with your full attention. It is a means to an end. And that leads to "get there itis", aggressive driving, all sorts of shenanigans.
- ianai 5y ago
  Couldn’t agree more. Seeing body bags at accidents on just about every commute in a large city (LV) between home/school really made that point for me. It started to feel like that city was engaging in some weird daily sacrifice since no one talks about “gee maybe we should drive more safely?” Or just ludicrously violent.

randmeerkat 5y ago

> But self-driving cars have been 2 years away for almost a decade now. I really think it's similar to nuclear fusion. Literally last week it was being discussed that Waymo now offers full self driving in SF right now. Unless I’m missing something, the future you’re saying is akin to fusion has just happened. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30855624 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30855624

Fezzik 5y ago
If you look in to why Waymo started “full self driving” in Arizona and, now, San Francisco it’s because the cars cannot even drive in light rain and the entire fleet is garaged with even mild inclement weather. We are still lightyears away from actual self-driving cars that can manage variable weather and even slightly-unpredictable terrain.
- randmeerkat 5y ago
  > If you look in to why Waymo started “full self driving” in Arizona and, now, San Francisco it’s because the cars cannot even drive in light rain and the entire fleet is garaged with even mild inclement weather. We are still lightyears away from actual self-driving cars that can manage variable weather and even slightly-unpredictable terrain. It rains in SF and there’s even fog… The fog’s name is Karl by the way. It’s also an old coastal city that doesn’t have a sane layout that you might expect from a test area like Arizona. SF is not an easy challenge and there are plenty of self-driving startups that have tried there and failed.
  - thereare5lights 5y ago
    > It rains in SF It hasn't rained regularly for years. We're in a bad drought, or as some other people put it, a new normal of very little rainfall.
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 5y ago
  Self-driving cars that "only" work on non-rainy days = self-driving cars available 90%+ of the time in sunbelt states. I have no idea why people minimize level 4 self driving. It would absolutely be enough for most people in those geofenced areas/cities to no longer need a car, would massively drive down drunk-driving deaths, and would be a huge benefit for the blind, the elderly, the rural poor, children, etc.

weq 5y ago

Tow truck drivers are making a killing on youtube right now. Humans cant drive cars/trucks/properly; robots have no chance. Not with the current tech promoted as "AI".

Brian_K_White 5y ago

Maybe it's not hapoening soon, but what they said was that it would happen there first. You don't think it will happen in simpler environments before more complex ones? I think the first examples, whenever that happens to be, will be on highways and more than that, only between special endpoints, IE yards with their own ramps. The vehicle never leaves the highway or the dedicated enpoints, no local ramps. possibly special areas of some rest stops for charging. They will be just a new form of port or train station.

ozim 5y ago

I think I agree as I am not in that space my go to reason is that if it would be easy, we would have fully automated trains with no train drivers already.

hemreldop 5y ago

Waymo is San Francisco is actually doing a fantastic job. With just what we have there we could do most driving, maybe even including last mile.

throw0101a 4y ago

What about SAE Level 2 self-driving à la the Comma Three: the driver is still there, but turning and braking is taken care of by the computer. Automate the drudgery to reduce mental fatigue. The operator is just there to scan the conditions and make sure nothing is going off the rails.