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The real winners are the boomer generation. When they graduated college in the mid 60's wages were enormous relative to the cost of property. Property in all

The real winners are the boomer generation. When they graduated college in the mid 60's wages were enormous relative to the cost of property. Property in all the now hotly competitive areas was dirt cheap too. If you bought in SF back then you've probably made 100x or more on the property value.

elihu 5y ago
There's an interesting theory I came across that a lot of the cheap housing of that era was due to the interstate highway system, built partly during WWII. A lot of land that before was too far from cities for people to commute suddenly became in reach of people with decent cars. So that meant there was a whole lot of usable real-estate that hadn't already been built on, and that meant cheap land for about a generation. If that's true, maybe we're approaching another phase of that, where people move away from cities because they can work remote. And things like Starlink might make some places tolerable to work from that wouldn't be before. On the other hand, even rural property is expensive in a lot of places now. Nowhere is immune to real estate speculation.
- Cthulhu_ 5y ago
  > On the other hand, even rural property is expensive in a lot of places now. Nowhere is immune to real estate speculation. That's it, location is becoming less of a factor to determine housing prices. That said, besides internet you still need good access to things like plumbing and electricity, social aspects, and of course the climate has to be liveable; I can't imagine what it's like since I live in a very moderate climate country (western Europe), but stuff is a lot more extreme in the US, and the actual amount of liveable space is limited.
  - elihu 5y ago
    Access to services is probably the main thing: schools, hospitals, grocery stores. Plumbing and electricity is a pretty low bar since wells and septic fields are a thing, and even electricity can be generated on site these days if it's not available. But most people wouldn't want to live three hours from the nearest grocery store. That rules out some areas that would otherwise be pretty reasonable. I drove through central British Columbia once on a road trip. There's probably enough reasonably flat land to fit the population of California with room to spare, but it'd be a pretty hard sell to get many people to move there now. Prince George has about 74,000 people but it's the only moderately large city/town for hundreds of miles in any direction.
    - iancmceachern 5y ago
      Lots of California is this way also. People focus on the SF and LA areas but there is so much empty land in thr rest of the state. Much of the hurdle to living there, as previously noted, is access to services. Mainly medical and grocery for me. Having to drove 2-3+ hours to get to a decent medical facility isn't in the cards for us.
      - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
        The biggest hurdle to living in those places is actually access to jobs. I guess it works if you can WFH, but if you don't have that option, you want a vibrant job market. With jobs comes wealth and then services like retail and medical care. Prisons work well for these cases: Susanville is fairly rural (1.5 hours away from Reno?), it is the kind of place where if you drive north you get the dreaded "No services for 130 miles" sign. But they have a prison so they have jobs and services that come with the money those jobs bring (although you are still stuck heading to Reno if you need a real hospital or speciality care).
axiolite 5y ago
> Property in all the now hotly competitive areas was dirt cheap too. Yeah, but you're ignoring all the losing bets. How have property prices in Detroit and West Virginia held up? Industry there was booming at the time, who was to know that it would change? Meanwhile, California and Arizona were practically empty...
- asdff 5y ago
  Not sure why you are downvoted. Prices in certain places like the rust belt have been frozen in time for the most part, and even recent surges have only sent them up so much. I just decided to take a peek at a wealthy neighborhood in Cleveland for an example of a not so hot market. Here a 5 bedroom mansion on an acre lot goes for $520k. 22 years ago that home sold for $450k (1). I bet when you factor inflation that gain of $70k over 22 years was actually a loss. This is just one example but it goes to show that even recent surges have only done so much to spike prices from what was honestly decades of stagnation in real estate across much of the country. 1. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2758-Claythorne-Rd-Beachwood-OH-44122/33686428_zpid/ https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2758-Claythorne-Rd-Beachw...

elihu 5y ago

There's an interesting theory I came across that a lot of the cheap housing of that era was due to the interstate highway system, built partly during WWII. A lot of land that before was too far from cities for people to commute suddenly became in reach of people with decent cars. So that meant there was a whole lot of usable real-estate that hadn't already been built on, and that meant cheap land for about a generation. If that's true, maybe we're approaching another phase of that, where people move away from cities because they can work remote. And things like Starlink might make some places tolerable to work from that wouldn't be before. On the other hand, even rural property is expensive in a lot of places now. Nowhere is immune to real estate speculation.

Cthulhu_ 5y ago
> On the other hand, even rural property is expensive in a lot of places now. Nowhere is immune to real estate speculation. That's it, location is becoming less of a factor to determine housing prices. That said, besides internet you still need good access to things like plumbing and electricity, social aspects, and of course the climate has to be liveable; I can't imagine what it's like since I live in a very moderate climate country (western Europe), but stuff is a lot more extreme in the US, and the actual amount of liveable space is limited.
- elihu 5y ago
  Access to services is probably the main thing: schools, hospitals, grocery stores. Plumbing and electricity is a pretty low bar since wells and septic fields are a thing, and even electricity can be generated on site these days if it's not available. But most people wouldn't want to live three hours from the nearest grocery store. That rules out some areas that would otherwise be pretty reasonable. I drove through central British Columbia once on a road trip. There's probably enough reasonably flat land to fit the population of California with room to spare, but it'd be a pretty hard sell to get many people to move there now. Prince George has about 74,000 people but it's the only moderately large city/town for hundreds of miles in any direction.
  - iancmceachern 5y ago
    Lots of California is this way also. People focus on the SF and LA areas but there is so much empty land in thr rest of the state. Much of the hurdle to living there, as previously noted, is access to services. Mainly medical and grocery for me. Having to drove 2-3+ hours to get to a decent medical facility isn't in the cards for us.
    - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
      The biggest hurdle to living in those places is actually access to jobs. I guess it works if you can WFH, but if you don't have that option, you want a vibrant job market. With jobs comes wealth and then services like retail and medical care. Prisons work well for these cases: Susanville is fairly rural (1.5 hours away from Reno?), it is the kind of place where if you drive north you get the dreaded "No services for 130 miles" sign. But they have a prison so they have jobs and services that come with the money those jobs bring (although you are still stuck heading to Reno if you need a real hospital or speciality care).

axiolite 5y ago

> Property in all the now hotly competitive areas was dirt cheap too. Yeah, but you're ignoring all the losing bets. How have property prices in Detroit and West Virginia held up? Industry there was booming at the time, who was to know that it would change? Meanwhile, California and Arizona were practically empty...

asdff 5y ago
Not sure why you are downvoted. Prices in certain places like the rust belt have been frozen in time for the most part, and even recent surges have only sent them up so much. I just decided to take a peek at a wealthy neighborhood in Cleveland for an example of a not so hot market. Here a 5 bedroom mansion on an acre lot goes for $520k. 22 years ago that home sold for $450k (1). I bet when you factor inflation that gain of $70k over 22 years was actually a loss. This is just one example but it goes to show that even recent surges have only done so much to spike prices from what was honestly decades of stagnation in real estate across much of the country. 1. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2758-Claythorne-Rd-Beachwood-OH-44122/33686428_zpid/ https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2758-Claythorne-Rd-Beachw...