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> Edit: Also, who gets to keep the nuclear weapons? Russia will keep the nuclear weapons. From the split there will still be a Russia, it'll hold Moscow and St

> Edit: Also, who gets to keep the nuclear weapons? Russia will keep the nuclear weapons. From the split there will still be a Russia, it'll hold Moscow and St. Petersburg for example. That new country will still be a significant economy with a large population (Western Russia obviously by far holds most of the nation's population density). Ideally they'd downscale the number of nukes they have (with the US also doing so), but that might be hoping for too much. The biggest problem with the splintering will be what China and North Korea do in their regions near the present Russian border. China would have to be very tempted to conquer more of Asia (some territory bordering the Sea of Japan and Okhotsk), going up the coast to open up more routes for their navy forces into the Pacific.

dmitriid 5y ago
> From the split there will still be a Russia, it'll hold Moscow and St. Petersburg for example. Ah yes, the well-known locations of Russia's nuclear weapons, Moscow and St. Petersburg > That new country will still be a significant economy with a large population (Western Russia obviously by far holds most of the nation's population density) Population density does not translate into significant economy. Regions that don't receive subsidies from the federal budget are located mostly along the Ural mountains. Rather far from the capital cities. And you're forgetting that if Russia gets split, most economic ties between the various regions will be be either severed or significantly disrupted. The fall of USSR was only 31 years ago, and apparently people are unable to either remember it, or read up on it. > China would have to be very tempted to conquer more of Asia That's a very good observation. China will definitely move in to grab Siberia, aka the source of most of Russia's raw materials such as oil (so no "still significant economy" for the rest)
livueta 5y ago
> China would have to be very tempted to conquer more of Asia (some territory bordering the Sea of Japan and Okhotsk), going up the coast to open up more routes for their navy forces into the Pacific. It's interesting to note that this is already kinda the case in economic if not military/political terms: cities like Blagoveshchensk are basically part of Heilongjiang - in that particular case, it is very nearly a direct extension of the Chinese city of Heihe. They do way more trade with China than with the rest of Russia, and in some cases the populations are 30+% Chinese nationals, who often run all the important businesses and, ironically, use the native population as cheap labor. In these conditions, stepping in more formally would be very trivial in the absence of a robust Russian response. Info mostly sourced from The Emperor Far Away, Heilongjiang chapters.

dmitriid 5y ago

> From the split there will still be a Russia, it'll hold Moscow and St. Petersburg for example. Ah yes, the well-known locations of Russia's nuclear weapons, Moscow and St. Petersburg > That new country will still be a significant economy with a large population (Western Russia obviously by far holds most of the nation's population density) Population density does not translate into significant economy. Regions that don't receive subsidies from the federal budget are located mostly along the Ural mountains. Rather far from the capital cities. And you're forgetting that if Russia gets split, most economic ties between the various regions will be be either severed or significantly disrupted. The fall of USSR was only 31 years ago, and apparently people are unable to either remember it, or read up on it. > China would have to be very tempted to conquer more of Asia That's a very good observation. China will definitely move in to grab Siberia, aka the source of most of Russia's raw materials such as oil (so no "still significant economy" for the rest)

livueta 5y ago

> China would have to be very tempted to conquer more of Asia (some territory bordering the Sea of Japan and Okhotsk), going up the coast to open up more routes for their navy forces into the Pacific. It's interesting to note that this is already kinda the case in economic if not military/political terms: cities like Blagoveshchensk are basically part of Heilongjiang - in that particular case, it is very nearly a direct extension of the Chinese city of Heihe. They do way more trade with China than with the rest of Russia, and in some cases the populations are 30+% Chinese nationals, who often run all the important businesses and, ironically, use the native population as cheap labor. In these conditions, stepping in more formally would be very trivial in the absence of a robust Russian response. Info mostly sourced from The Emperor Far Away, Heilongjiang chapters.