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Transportation and heating will be electrified. Electric car share in new cars is 15% and climbing fast. New gas/oil heating installations will be (almost) forb

Transportation and heating will be electrified. Electric car share in new cars is 15% and climbing fast. New gas/oil heating installations will be (almost) forbidden from 2024 on (65% of heating energy must come from renewable energies). So electric energy is what is relevant for the future.

jeffbee 5y ago
How far in the future, though? The majority of cars on the road will still be non-electric for years even after EVs take over 100% of the market, because cars are so long-lived.
- nmehner 5y ago
  By 2025 probably the majority of new cars in Europe will be electric and by 2027 >80%. After that the share of electric cars in the fleet will increase by about 4-6% every year. Almost complete electrification will probably take until 2040. If robotic cars take off and people stop owning cars in larger numbers, things might be faster. Also old combustion cars might still exist, but these are often cars that are not moving a lot.
  - coryrc 5y ago
    Your assertion does not seem realistic. Germans won't let go of the combustion engine easily nor have demonstrated the correct investments to be able to ramp production up to those numbers in only the years.
    - nmehner 5y ago
      Daimler stopped development of combustion engines almost three years ago: https://electrek.co/2019/09/19/daimler-stops-developing-internal-combustion-engines-to-focus-on-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2019/09/19/daimler-stops-developing-inte... . Volkswagen will not develop new combustion engines: https://paultan.org/2021/03/23/vw-to-stop-developing-internal-combustion-engines-will-adapt-existing-mills-to-meet-emissions-regulations/ https://paultan.org/2021/03/23/vw-to-stop-developing-interna... Opel (as part of Stellantis) is going all electric in 2026. The combustion engine was let go some time ago.
      - coryrc 5y ago
        BMW still making advancements: https://www.bmwblog.com/2022/01/14/bmw-working-on-new-combustion-engines/ https://www.bmwblog.com/2022/01/14/bmw-working-on-new-combus... The first article says "Daimler has previously announced plans for Mercedes-Benz and smart cars to offer electric versions of all car models by 2022." Has that come to pass? No. So their claims of maybe making most cars electric by 2030 should also be suspect. And that's definitely not 2025.
        nmehner 5y ago
        Mercedes-Benz EQA Mercedes-Benz EQB Mercedes-Benz EQC Mercedes-Benz EQS MERCEDES-BENZ EQV MERCEDES-BENZ eSprinter MERCEDES-BENZ eVito ... are already being sold. Are all being sold. EQE will be released this year. Smart is already all electric.
  - nradov 5y ago
    That is simply impossible. We won't have the manufacturing capacity to produce that many electric cars in 3 years.
    - nmehner 5y ago
      Stellantis (Opel/Citroen/Fiat/...) will be all electric by 2026: https://insideevs.com/news/570731/stellantis-electric-europe-ev-2026/ https://insideevs.com/news/570731/stellantis-electric-europe... Volvo will by all electric by 2030: https://www.autoserviceprofessional.com/articles/8910-volvo-pushes-faster-timeline-to-produce-all-electric-cars https://www.autoserviceprofessional.com/articles/8910-volvo-... Mercedes will be all electric by 2030: https://electrek.co/2021/07/22/mercedes-benz-go-all-electric-by-2030/ https://electrek.co/2021/07/22/mercedes-benz-go-all-electric... Volkswagen is converting three factories (Emden, Chattanooga, Hanover) to build electric vehicles this year alone. Ford will be selling 600000 EVs/year in Europe by 2026 (https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/14/ford-plans-9-electric-cars-trucks-for-europe-by-2024/ https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/14/ford-plans-9-electric-c...) There is a lot of capacity going online.
      - coryrc 5y ago
        That first article is incorrect. Look at the source. Even the picture they include contradicts the headline, saying "there will be a battery OPTION by 2024 for all models". Great, but far from majority electric by 2025.
        nmehner 5y ago
        "Stellantis has announced its commitment to sell only electric vehicles in Europe from 2026, following in the footsteps of several other manufacturers that revealed similar moves." So an option in 2024 and all electric by 2026. What is incorrect in this article? If they stop selling combustion cars in 2026 they will start phasing out much earlier.
- ZeroGravitas 5y ago
  Electric miles driven is the more important metric. People who only drive once a week can probably cope with high fuel prices for their second hand car, and their CO2 output is minimal. People running a business e.g. deliveries, taxis or otherwise high mileage uses will be passing up a lot of money if they don't switch to EVs with low fuel and maintenance cost. They're already competitive in TCO for these users and only going to get cheaper.

jeffbee 5y ago

How far in the future, though? The majority of cars on the road will still be non-electric for years even after EVs take over 100% of the market, because cars are so long-lived.

nmehner 5y ago
By 2025 probably the majority of new cars in Europe will be electric and by 2027 >80%. After that the share of electric cars in the fleet will increase by about 4-6% every year. Almost complete electrification will probably take until 2040. If robotic cars take off and people stop owning cars in larger numbers, things might be faster. Also old combustion cars might still exist, but these are often cars that are not moving a lot.
- coryrc 5y ago
  Your assertion does not seem realistic. Germans won't let go of the combustion engine easily nor have demonstrated the correct investments to be able to ramp production up to those numbers in only the years.
  - nmehner 5y ago
    Daimler stopped development of combustion engines almost three years ago: https://electrek.co/2019/09/19/daimler-stops-developing-internal-combustion-engines-to-focus-on-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2019/09/19/daimler-stops-developing-inte... . Volkswagen will not develop new combustion engines: https://paultan.org/2021/03/23/vw-to-stop-developing-internal-combustion-engines-will-adapt-existing-mills-to-meet-emissions-regulations/ https://paultan.org/2021/03/23/vw-to-stop-developing-interna... Opel (as part of Stellantis) is going all electric in 2026. The combustion engine was let go some time ago.
    - coryrc 5y ago
      BMW still making advancements: https://www.bmwblog.com/2022/01/14/bmw-working-on-new-combustion-engines/ https://www.bmwblog.com/2022/01/14/bmw-working-on-new-combus... The first article says "Daimler has previously announced plans for Mercedes-Benz and smart cars to offer electric versions of all car models by 2022." Has that come to pass? No. So their claims of maybe making most cars electric by 2030 should also be suspect. And that's definitely not 2025.
      - nmehner 5y ago
        Mercedes-Benz EQA Mercedes-Benz EQB Mercedes-Benz EQC Mercedes-Benz EQS MERCEDES-BENZ EQV MERCEDES-BENZ eSprinter MERCEDES-BENZ eVito ... are already being sold. Are all being sold. EQE will be released this year. Smart is already all electric.
- nradov 5y ago
  That is simply impossible. We won't have the manufacturing capacity to produce that many electric cars in 3 years.
  - nmehner 5y ago
    Stellantis (Opel/Citroen/Fiat/...) will be all electric by 2026: https://insideevs.com/news/570731/stellantis-electric-europe-ev-2026/ https://insideevs.com/news/570731/stellantis-electric-europe... Volvo will by all electric by 2030: https://www.autoserviceprofessional.com/articles/8910-volvo-pushes-faster-timeline-to-produce-all-electric-cars https://www.autoserviceprofessional.com/articles/8910-volvo-... Mercedes will be all electric by 2030: https://electrek.co/2021/07/22/mercedes-benz-go-all-electric-by-2030/ https://electrek.co/2021/07/22/mercedes-benz-go-all-electric... Volkswagen is converting three factories (Emden, Chattanooga, Hanover) to build electric vehicles this year alone. Ford will be selling 600000 EVs/year in Europe by 2026 (https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/14/ford-plans-9-electric-cars-trucks-for-europe-by-2024/ https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/14/ford-plans-9-electric-c...) There is a lot of capacity going online.
    - coryrc 5y ago
      That first article is incorrect. Look at the source. Even the picture they include contradicts the headline, saying "there will be a battery OPTION by 2024 for all models". Great, but far from majority electric by 2025.
      - nmehner 5y ago
        "Stellantis has announced its commitment to sell only electric vehicles in Europe from 2026, following in the footsteps of several other manufacturers that revealed similar moves." So an option in 2024 and all electric by 2026. What is incorrect in this article? If they stop selling combustion cars in 2026 they will start phasing out much earlier.
ZeroGravitas 5y ago
Electric miles driven is the more important metric. People who only drive once a week can probably cope with high fuel prices for their second hand car, and their CO2 output is minimal. People running a business e.g. deliveries, taxis or otherwise high mileage uses will be passing up a lot of money if they don't switch to EVs with low fuel and maintenance cost. They're already competitive in TCO for these users and only going to get cheaper.