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Russia will think many times over before attacking another country now. Everybody has seen how actually weak their army is. Before that, counties and people we

Russia will think many times over before attacking another country now. Everybody has seen how actually weak their army is. Before that, counties and people were afraid of them mostly because of soviet era fame. Now they've shown they are incapable on anything except missile hits with a great failure rate.

forum_ghost 5y ago
but isn't 1/3rd of a country size of France is under their control now, and ruble trades higher than before sanctions? Russia's performance was certainly underwhelming, especially their logistics and general appearance of disorganization, but weak might also be a bit of a stretch.
- 323 5y ago
  The ruble interest rate was increased to 20%. You can make any currency go higher with a sufficiently high interest rate, but that interest hike has a huge impact on the economy. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russia-central-bank-hikes-interest-rates-to-20percent-from-9point5percent-to-bolster-ruble.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russia-central-bank-hikes-in...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- kasey_junk 5y ago
  You can’t actually trade rubles anywhere. Russia has gone from a relatively liberal currency with normal interest rates to one of the strictest currency control regimes in the world and 20% interest rates. Russia is bankrupting itself to prop that number up and if they let up for even a week the currency flight would crater the exchange rate.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
unmole 5y ago
> missile hits with a great failure rate Any sources for this?
- sndean 5y ago
  This Reuters article[1] says: > Citing U.S. intelligence, three U.S. officials said the United States estimated that Russia's failure rate varied day-to-day, depended on the type of missile being launched, and could sometimes exceed 50%. Two of them said it reached as high as 60%. But this blog post is a bit more informative [2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive... [2] https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/04/ukraine-russias-air-launched-cruise-missiles-coming-up-short https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/04/ukraine-...
  - unmole 5y ago
    Thanks!
- lizknope 5y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive... google "russian missile failure rate" and you can find many more articles
NikolaNovak 5y ago
I understand they've likely failed at their military goals. But they've succeeded in pummeling Ukraine into stone age. These "unsuccessful" strikes last I heard caused just over half a trillion of damage - so far :(. Ukraine economy is anticipated to be down 40% in 2022 - and that's an optimistic estimate. And 4-5mil of their own people have already fled the country. I think it's one thing for us to speak how "weak Russian army is" from far away. Inefficient as it may be, it still makes your day pretty lousy. And your country. And the convenient thing about authoritarian regime and culture that's enjoyed sense of martyrdom for centuries is they can bear far far greater losses than most in the west. I don't think people around Russia are drawing the same conclusions as "Russia will think twice". A different conclusion may be "Russia Will attack a country if it really wants ti, and pummel it to rubble, consequences be damned". If I were their neighbour, I would think of Russia as pissed, not weak, right now.
- celticninja 5y ago
  Ukraine will rebuild and come back stronger, Russia will not be able to,they are a dying regime and a dying country.
  - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
    >Ukraine will rebuild and come back stronger With what money? The west will hardly make any significant loans or investments to Ukraine, when Russia can always steamroll in, and shell everything to pieces whoever they feel like it. If Ukraine were under the NATO protection like the Baltic and EE states, then yeah, investors can expect their money is safe there. But until Ukraine gets any real protection against future Russian aggression, not much will change.
  - NikolaNovak 5y ago
    I wish I were that optimistic. I know we need to support and encourage the spirits of Ukrainians, but this is a phenomenal amount of damage caused. And not just infrastructure. Rebuild and come back stronger is one possible path out of this. There are many others that are possible or likely.
- 5y ago

forum_ghost 5y ago

but isn't 1/3rd of a country size of France is under their control now, and ruble trades higher than before sanctions? Russia's performance was certainly underwhelming, especially their logistics and general appearance of disorganization, but weak might also be a bit of a stretch.

323 5y ago
The ruble interest rate was increased to 20%. You can make any currency go higher with a sufficiently high interest rate, but that interest hike has a huge impact on the economy. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russia-central-bank-hikes-interest-rates-to-20percent-from-9point5percent-to-bolster-ruble.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russia-central-bank-hikes-in...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
kasey_junk 5y ago
You can’t actually trade rubles anywhere. Russia has gone from a relatively liberal currency with normal interest rates to one of the strictest currency control regimes in the world and 20% interest rates. Russia is bankrupting itself to prop that number up and if they let up for even a week the currency flight would crater the exchange rate.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

unmole 5y ago

> missile hits with a great failure rate Any sources for this?

sndean 5y ago
This Reuters article[1] says: > Citing U.S. intelligence, three U.S. officials said the United States estimated that Russia's failure rate varied day-to-day, depended on the type of missile being launched, and could sometimes exceed 50%. Two of them said it reached as high as 60%. But this blog post is a bit more informative [2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive... [2] https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/04/ukraine-russias-air-launched-cruise-missiles-coming-up-short https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/04/ukraine-...
- unmole 5y ago
  Thanks!
lizknope 5y ago
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive... google "russian missile failure rate" and you can find many more articles

NikolaNovak 5y ago

I understand they've likely failed at their military goals. But they've succeeded in pummeling Ukraine into stone age. These "unsuccessful" strikes last I heard caused just over half a trillion of damage - so far :(. Ukraine economy is anticipated to be down 40% in 2022 - and that's an optimistic estimate. And 4-5mil of their own people have already fled the country. I think it's one thing for us to speak how "weak Russian army is" from far away. Inefficient as it may be, it still makes your day pretty lousy. And your country. And the convenient thing about authoritarian regime and culture that's enjoyed sense of martyrdom for centuries is they can bear far far greater losses than most in the west. I don't think people around Russia are drawing the same conclusions as "Russia will think twice". A different conclusion may be "Russia Will attack a country if it really wants ti, and pummel it to rubble, consequences be damned". If I were their neighbour, I would think of Russia as pissed, not weak, right now.

celticninja 5y ago
Ukraine will rebuild and come back stronger, Russia will not be able to,they are a dying regime and a dying country.
- ChuckNorris89 5y ago
  >Ukraine will rebuild and come back stronger With what money? The west will hardly make any significant loans or investments to Ukraine, when Russia can always steamroll in, and shell everything to pieces whoever they feel like it. If Ukraine were under the NATO protection like the Baltic and EE states, then yeah, investors can expect their money is safe there. But until Ukraine gets any real protection against future Russian aggression, not much will change.
- NikolaNovak 5y ago
  I wish I were that optimistic. I know we need to support and encourage the spirits of Ukrainians, but this is a phenomenal amount of damage caused. And not just infrastructure. Rebuild and come back stronger is one possible path out of this. There are many others that are possible or likely.
5y ago