7 ms·

Their only option is to be wrong. At the end of the day, the fed has an impossible job to do.

spaetzleesser 5y ago
I still remember Bernanke’s pronouncements before the 2008 crash that everything is just fine. It’s hard to not conclude that they either aren’t very competent or are playing political games.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > remember Bernanke’s pronouncements before the 2008 crash that everything is just fine The Fed chair saying "we're fucked" is, on its own, enough to cause a credit crisis. (This is why the Fed doesn't tend to make blanket forward-looking statements like "everything is just fine.")
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - spaetzleesser 5y ago
    I am not aware of them silently doing something about the mortgage bubble either.
notch656a 5y ago
They can be dissolved. The constitution does not require a central bank.
- nopenopenopeno 5y ago
  - posnet 5y ago
    I wonder about these grand conspiracies. I am on the fence as to whether the world is controlled by a global elite of super geniuses stealing from the unwashed masses. Or whether the people in charge actually are just wildy incompetent. I'd say the evidence supports both.
    - tmn 5y ago
      Lying is not the same as incompetent. Also they have to pretend (lie) that they can do something impossible. They are not incompetent. The fed chairs are quite intelligent, but they are not running the show.
    - yhoneycomb 5y ago
      How is this a "grand conspiracy"? People are going to manipulate things in their favor as much as they have the power to do so. Oligarchs in America and elsewhere have the most power, and thus do the most manipulating. Also, it's no secret that the vast majority of wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few oligarchs.
      - vmception 5y ago
        As soon as they ever compete against each other, it's the same as none existing at all. That's the easiest way to dismantle that particular grand conspiracy. The most pragmatic approach is to understand that they don't rely on voting to get their way. But they absolutely compete for resource appropriation and their special interest. It is better if they act like gods of their particular domain or sector, so they can exert control over just that and not compete. But it also reinforces that they cannot and do not coordinate much together.
        yhoneycomb 5y ago
        They have a whole lot more in common with each other than not. You haven't dismantled anything.
        vmception 5y ago
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  You need a mechanism to decide the ratio of currency/population necessary to prevent a deflationary cycle.
  - notch656a 5y ago
    You don't 'need' the fed. The country lasted 150 years without one, and shortly (less than 20 years) after its introduction, a deflationary cycle and great depression ensued. The fed preventing a deflationary cycle has been thoroughly and mercilessly disproven. Either the fed is powerless to stop the economic crisis we've suffered, or they're too incompetent to manage them. Either way it looks like they need dissolved.
    - mensetmanusman 5y ago
      The fed couldn’t possibly stop a deflationary cycle when the currency/population ratio was determined by how many atoms of non-oxidizing noble metals happens to be in the earth’s crust.
      - notch656a 5y ago
        The federal reserve themselves disagree with you [1]. Also note [2]: "In 1913, this problem was addressed by the creation of the Federal Reserve System (Fed).33 The Fed was to remedy the situation in a two ways. First, it would provide a means by which banks could borrow in times of stringency to satisfy their customers’ demand for cash. Second, it could create a new form of money, Federal Reserve notes, which could be expanded or contracted in quantity to respond to the need for more cash." "The creation of the Federal Reserve had little if any effect on the gold standard. The dollar was still defined in terms of gold. Federal Reserve notes were redeemable in lawful money. The Fed not only operated under the gold standard, but was charged with maintaining it, and kept a percentage of gold cover for its notes. Gold still dictated the value of the dollar. " [1] https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-depression#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20could%20have,collapse%20was%20unforeseen%20and%20unprecedented https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-depressio.... [2] https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R41887.pdf https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R41887.pdf
vmception 5y ago
Oooh, nice, this has levels to it. 1) The Fed should create the outcomes such that their predictions were wrong 2) While also just having a bad interpretation of data to begin with 3) The Fed is only imagining that its toolkit can cause a specific outcome for economic growth, but it cannot cause humans to transact a certain way or predict what a large group of humans (or large pool of capital) will do. No economist can, and the other economists don't have an infinite balance sheet to try to influence it either. 4) The Fed was never asked to or mandated to do the things it does to stimulus the economy. (Caveat, the stimulus bills in 2020 are a major exception). The Fed just notices that nobody can stop it. Similar to the Supreme Court realizing that and testing it in Marbury v Madison. Congress lacks consensus on it and everyone is afraid of the alternative (Congress having to deal with monetary policy themselves, politically).
- datavirtue 5y ago
  I agree. Congress is paralyzed (far more than the usual) when it comes to monetary policy and financial services regulation. It's officially their job but not their wheel house. Unsettling.
- pxue 5y ago
  the job of the Fed is a proven impossible one. Their job is to nudge the entirety of the economy towards one or two of the Fixed Exchange Rate, Free Capital Flow, and Independent Monetary Policy at any given time, but never all three at once. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity

I still remember Bernanke’s pronouncements before the 2008 crash that everything is just fine. It’s hard to not conclude that they either aren’t very competent or are playing political games.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> remember Bernanke’s pronouncements before the 2008 crash that everything is just fine The Fed chair saying "we're fucked" is, on its own, enough to cause a credit crisis. (This is why the Fed doesn't tend to make blanket forward-looking statements like "everything is just fine.")
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- spaetzleesser 5y ago
  I am not aware of them silently doing something about the mortgage bubble either.

notch656a 5y ago

They can be dissolved. The constitution does not require a central bank.

nopenopenopeno 5y ago
- posnet 5y ago
  I wonder about these grand conspiracies. I am on the fence as to whether the world is controlled by a global elite of super geniuses stealing from the unwashed masses. Or whether the people in charge actually are just wildy incompetent. I'd say the evidence supports both.
  - tmn 5y ago
    Lying is not the same as incompetent. Also they have to pretend (lie) that they can do something impossible. They are not incompetent. The fed chairs are quite intelligent, but they are not running the show.
  - yhoneycomb 5y ago
    How is this a "grand conspiracy"? People are going to manipulate things in their favor as much as they have the power to do so. Oligarchs in America and elsewhere have the most power, and thus do the most manipulating. Also, it's no secret that the vast majority of wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few oligarchs.
    - vmception 5y ago
      As soon as they ever compete against each other, it's the same as none existing at all. That's the easiest way to dismantle that particular grand conspiracy. The most pragmatic approach is to understand that they don't rely on voting to get their way. But they absolutely compete for resource appropriation and their special interest. It is better if they act like gods of their particular domain or sector, so they can exert control over just that and not compete. But it also reinforces that they cannot and do not coordinate much together.
      - yhoneycomb 5y ago
        They have a whole lot more in common with each other than not. You haven't dismantled anything.
        vmception 5y ago
mensetmanusman 5y ago
You need a mechanism to decide the ratio of currency/population necessary to prevent a deflationary cycle.
- notch656a 5y ago
  You don't 'need' the fed. The country lasted 150 years without one, and shortly (less than 20 years) after its introduction, a deflationary cycle and great depression ensued. The fed preventing a deflationary cycle has been thoroughly and mercilessly disproven. Either the fed is powerless to stop the economic crisis we've suffered, or they're too incompetent to manage them. Either way it looks like they need dissolved.
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    The fed couldn’t possibly stop a deflationary cycle when the currency/population ratio was determined by how many atoms of non-oxidizing noble metals happens to be in the earth’s crust.
    - notch656a 5y ago
      The federal reserve themselves disagree with you [1]. Also note [2]: "In 1913, this problem was addressed by the creation of the Federal Reserve System (Fed).33 The Fed was to remedy the situation in a two ways. First, it would provide a means by which banks could borrow in times of stringency to satisfy their customers’ demand for cash. Second, it could create a new form of money, Federal Reserve notes, which could be expanded or contracted in quantity to respond to the need for more cash." "The creation of the Federal Reserve had little if any effect on the gold standard. The dollar was still defined in terms of gold. Federal Reserve notes were redeemable in lawful money. The Fed not only operated under the gold standard, but was charged with maintaining it, and kept a percentage of gold cover for its notes. Gold still dictated the value of the dollar. " [1] https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-depression#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20could%20have,collapse%20was%20unforeseen%20and%20unprecedented https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-depressio.... [2] https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R41887.pdf https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R41887.pdf

vmception 5y ago

Oooh, nice, this has levels to it. 1) The Fed should create the outcomes such that their predictions were wrong 2) While also just having a bad interpretation of data to begin with 3) The Fed is only imagining that its toolkit can cause a specific outcome for economic growth, but it cannot cause humans to transact a certain way or predict what a large group of humans (or large pool of capital) will do. No economist can, and the other economists don't have an infinite balance sheet to try to influence it either. 4) The Fed was never asked to or mandated to do the things it does to stimulus the economy. (Caveat, the stimulus bills in 2020 are a major exception). The Fed just notices that nobody can stop it. Similar to the Supreme Court realizing that and testing it in Marbury v Madison. Congress lacks consensus on it and everyone is afraid of the alternative (Congress having to deal with monetary policy themselves, politically).

datavirtue 5y ago
I agree. Congress is paralyzed (far more than the usual) when it comes to monetary policy and financial services regulation. It's officially their job but not their wheel house. Unsettling.
pxue 5y ago
the job of the Fed is a proven impossible one. Their job is to nudge the entirety of the economy towards one or two of the Fixed Exchange Rate, Free Capital Flow, and Independent Monetary Policy at any given time, but never all three at once. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity