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The transition will not be slow. As soon as there's an addon to an existing truck or a taxi, they will be switched over very quickly. Businesses aren't stupid,

The transition will not be slow. As soon as there's an addon to an existing truck or a taxi, they will be switched over very quickly. Businesses aren't stupid, they understand human drivers are expensive and get tired and cause accidents. Millions of jobs will be lost within a few years. And your comment didn't address of where these drivers will go in any way. "Adapt" is not an answer. Your average 46 year old truck driver will not be learning Javascript.

breadzeppelin__ 5y ago
they definitely already have this for tractors / farming https://www.agleader.com/blog/ag-leader-unveils-new-geosteer-automated-steering-system/?locale=en https://www.agleader.com/blog/ag-leader-unveils-new-geosteer...
- logifail 5y ago
  > they definitely already have this for tractors / farming As in, a significant % of tractors are without human drivers, or as in, a significant % of tractors with human drivers have GPS-based assistance? I live in a rural area and see several dozens of tractors every day, and FWIW, I've never seen a tractor without a human driver. Yet.
  - breadzeppelin__ 4y ago
    As in the technology is available to make many 'off the shelf' tractors self-driving. I have no info on actual uptake just that there are components available to make 'normal' driving in to self-driving using third party modules
supportlocal4h 5y ago
How fast has warehouse automation occurred? What has happened to all the former warehouse workers? Fully autonomous warehouses has been a reasonable thing way before autonomous driving in the wild. It carries all the cost-saving and safety arguments. It might affect more people's jobs. What can we learn from that?
- worldsayshi 5y ago
  It seems to me that automating a warehouse would be a much larger relative investment than installing conversion kits into taxis.
  - airstrike 5y ago
    We are easily 20+ years away from simply adding a conversion kit into a taxi to make it driverless.
    - worldsayshi 5y ago
      You're probably right but I feel that the incentives to create such kits would be quite big once true autonomous driving has shown to work on large scale.
- bufferoverflow 5y ago
  As far as I know, there aren't fully automated warehouses. Amazon ones are still employing a ridiculous number of human pickers, sorters, packers.
  - dntrkv 5y ago
    And driverless cars will not be able to drive everywhere at once. Initially, it will be a few predefined routes and certain times. It will take much longer than 10 years to have a driverless car that can go anywhere, at anytime.
- monocasa 5y ago
  > Fully autonomous warehouses has been a reasonable thing way before autonomous driving in the wild. The issue in warehouses is that even before talking about control software behind automating, we simply don't have hardware for manipulators that are as versatile as human hands. That's why top of the line automated warehouses have sort of converged on automating everything except stations where humans can act like task reconfigurable pick and place machines. Better manipulators than biological hands is still an open research problem. Automated cars don't have the hardware barrier, and as soon as the control software meets the required error rates, we should expect a rapid switchover to automated fleets.

breadzeppelin__ 5y ago

they definitely already have this for tractors / farming https://www.agleader.com/blog/ag-leader-unveils-new-geosteer-automated-steering-system/?locale=en https://www.agleader.com/blog/ag-leader-unveils-new-geosteer...

logifail 5y ago
> they definitely already have this for tractors / farming As in, a significant % of tractors are without human drivers, or as in, a significant % of tractors with human drivers have GPS-based assistance? I live in a rural area and see several dozens of tractors every day, and FWIW, I've never seen a tractor without a human driver. Yet.
- breadzeppelin__ 4y ago
  As in the technology is available to make many 'off the shelf' tractors self-driving. I have no info on actual uptake just that there are components available to make 'normal' driving in to self-driving using third party modules

supportlocal4h 5y ago

How fast has warehouse automation occurred? What has happened to all the former warehouse workers? Fully autonomous warehouses has been a reasonable thing way before autonomous driving in the wild. It carries all the cost-saving and safety arguments. It might affect more people's jobs. What can we learn from that?

worldsayshi 5y ago
It seems to me that automating a warehouse would be a much larger relative investment than installing conversion kits into taxis.
- airstrike 5y ago
  We are easily 20+ years away from simply adding a conversion kit into a taxi to make it driverless.
  - worldsayshi 5y ago
    You're probably right but I feel that the incentives to create such kits would be quite big once true autonomous driving has shown to work on large scale.
bufferoverflow 5y ago
As far as I know, there aren't fully automated warehouses. Amazon ones are still employing a ridiculous number of human pickers, sorters, packers.
- dntrkv 5y ago
  And driverless cars will not be able to drive everywhere at once. Initially, it will be a few predefined routes and certain times. It will take much longer than 10 years to have a driverless car that can go anywhere, at anytime.
monocasa 5y ago
> Fully autonomous warehouses has been a reasonable thing way before autonomous driving in the wild. The issue in warehouses is that even before talking about control software behind automating, we simply don't have hardware for manipulators that are as versatile as human hands. That's why top of the line automated warehouses have sort of converged on automating everything except stations where humans can act like task reconfigurable pick and place machines. Better manipulators than biological hands is still an open research problem. Automated cars don't have the hardware barrier, and as soon as the control software meets the required error rates, we should expect a rapid switchover to automated fleets.