5 ms·

Hoping my sarcasm detector is misfiring here, I still want to engage with this comment. Can you explain to me how zoning law does anything to change the reality

by ctoth 5y ago

Hoping my sarcasm detector is misfiring here, I still want to engage with this comment. Can you explain to me how zoning law does anything to change the reality that poor people are being outbid by large corporations when attempting to buy their homes? If the land were zoned for anything, how would this change the fundamental truth that a large corporation with access to capital can outbid poor people whose largest assets are the homes that are being taken away from them? If there were more competition in the mobile home market, okay cool, now the people trying to buy their land are fighting against even more corporations? Really hoping this was supposed to be a funny and I'm not getting it.

missedthecue 5y ago
When the supply of houses is limited, but the number of bidders is increasing, the price can only do one thing; rapidly increase to meet the new equilibrium. I am not talking about more competition in the buyers side, I am talking about more competition in the building and selling side. If supply increases to match or outstrip the new demand, the prices of homes, mobile and otherwise, will fall. Clearly, selling homes is profitable because home prices are so high. So why are new homes not being built? The answer is because zoning laws in our current vetocracy explicitly prevent the construction of new housing under a variety of pretexts. We have been under-building for 10 years now and it's time to pay the piper.
- joshcryer 5y ago
  Permits are the highest they've been in the past 5 years. This is almost certainly supply chain and labor effects and we will feel them for years to come. Here's a link to the Census Building Permits survey: https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/ https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/ You can read a brief info graphic here: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf Note that "starts" of new buildings is close to permits, but completions are flat. There either isn't enough materials to finish these projects or there's a labor shortage to complete these projects. edit: not agreeing with your supply and demand argument tho there's lots of reasons people can't build in certain areas (where people want to live), but house prices are going up across the board, there really is an effort by the owner class to buy everything up and flip it to rental.
  - missedthecue 5y ago
    Highest in the 5 years is still ridiculously low. With a much smaller population, we used to frequently see 2m+ monthly starts. We haven't been close in coming up on 20 years. Yet the US population is higher than it has ever been. (image of graph) https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zYvA49j3pFA/XxGa4SdGiOI/AAAAAAAA1ds/Ki9uQ0N6ttQLfEbG7Z0rwCwXeJsn2HjlwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/StartsJune2020.PNG https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zYvA49j3pFA/XxGa4SdGiOI/AAAAAAAA1...
- salawat 5y ago
  How about the fact home prices are inflated to the point where you must take out a loan? The ubiquity of the mortgage seems like it's more an enabler of corporatized property buying by turning homes into a financial vehicle. You can blame zoning all you want, but really all zoning is is trying to ensure you don't end up with something massively disruptive to the surrounding area popping up without getting due attention paid to it. Furthermore, the big push for "high density housing" doesn't do squat to make ownable housing more accessible. Face it. It's the incestuous relationship with the financial sector. Cut that, and you're at least not continuing to do the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result.
  - missedthecue 5y ago
    The last time people normally bought houses without mortgages was what? Pre 1920? The housing market has been functional since then.
  - zo1 5y ago
    The loan/mortgage is a trap if you ask me (I actually agree with you both). The real question I've been asking myself lately is "why do you need to take out a mortgage to buy a house if you (after x years of saving) can buy it cash". There is a big problem or lack of generational help. Like it should be trivial, just live with family/parents till you've saved up to buy your own, or we should be promoting and encouraging the transfer of housing to children from parents. E.g. Get rid of inheritance tax and maybe even make it illegal for estates to sell property to pay off debts if there are children that it could be given to.
    - chii 5y ago
      > illegal for estates to sell property to pay off debts that would be bad for lenders - because it incentivizes holding the debt till you die, then get it cleared for free. No lender will lend to you if that's gonna happen.
meetingthrower 5y ago
Mobile home zoning is also now almost impossible to get, so supply is constrained which jacks up the price of the existing parks. There is basically zero chance of being able to buy land and start a park from scratch.

by ctoth 5y ago

missedthecue 5y ago

When the supply of houses is limited, but the number of bidders is increasing, the price can only do one thing; rapidly increase to meet the new equilibrium. I am not talking about more competition in the buyers side, I am talking about more competition in the building and selling side. If supply increases to match or outstrip the new demand, the prices of homes, mobile and otherwise, will fall. Clearly, selling homes is profitable because home prices are so high. So why are new homes not being built? The answer is because zoning laws in our current vetocracy explicitly prevent the construction of new housing under a variety of pretexts. We have been under-building for 10 years now and it's time to pay the piper.

joshcryer 5y ago
Permits are the highest they've been in the past 5 years. This is almost certainly supply chain and labor effects and we will feel them for years to come. Here's a link to the Census Building Permits survey: https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/ https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/ You can read a brief info graphic here: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf Note that "starts" of new buildings is close to permits, but completions are flat. There either isn't enough materials to finish these projects or there's a labor shortage to complete these projects. edit: not agreeing with your supply and demand argument tho there's lots of reasons people can't build in certain areas (where people want to live), but house prices are going up across the board, there really is an effort by the owner class to buy everything up and flip it to rental.
- missedthecue 5y ago
  Highest in the 5 years is still ridiculously low. With a much smaller population, we used to frequently see 2m+ monthly starts. We haven't been close in coming up on 20 years. Yet the US population is higher than it has ever been. (image of graph) https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zYvA49j3pFA/XxGa4SdGiOI/AAAAAAAA1ds/Ki9uQ0N6ttQLfEbG7Z0rwCwXeJsn2HjlwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/StartsJune2020.PNG https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zYvA49j3pFA/XxGa4SdGiOI/AAAAAAAA1...
salawat 5y ago
How about the fact home prices are inflated to the point where you must take out a loan? The ubiquity of the mortgage seems like it's more an enabler of corporatized property buying by turning homes into a financial vehicle. You can blame zoning all you want, but really all zoning is is trying to ensure you don't end up with something massively disruptive to the surrounding area popping up without getting due attention paid to it. Furthermore, the big push for "high density housing" doesn't do squat to make ownable housing more accessible. Face it. It's the incestuous relationship with the financial sector. Cut that, and you're at least not continuing to do the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result.
- missedthecue 5y ago
  The last time people normally bought houses without mortgages was what? Pre 1920? The housing market has been functional since then.
- zo1 5y ago
  The loan/mortgage is a trap if you ask me (I actually agree with you both). The real question I've been asking myself lately is "why do you need to take out a mortgage to buy a house if you (after x years of saving) can buy it cash". There is a big problem or lack of generational help. Like it should be trivial, just live with family/parents till you've saved up to buy your own, or we should be promoting and encouraging the transfer of housing to children from parents. E.g. Get rid of inheritance tax and maybe even make it illegal for estates to sell property to pay off debts if there are children that it could be given to.
  - chii 5y ago
    > illegal for estates to sell property to pay off debts that would be bad for lenders - because it incentivizes holding the debt till you die, then get it cleared for free. No lender will lend to you if that's gonna happen.

meetingthrower 5y ago

Mobile home zoning is also now almost impossible to get, so supply is constrained which jacks up the price of the existing parks. There is basically zero chance of being able to buy land and start a park from scratch.