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> The real winner is the West. The real winner is US. Europe will pay for this war by its' economy.

by vogre 5y ago

legalcorrection 5y ago
Yes, good point. The truth is Europe is utterly helpless militarily. They can't defend against Russian action in Eastern Europe without American military power. So they have to accept these sanctions as the cost of that protection. This is no doubt part of the why the United States has lobbied so strongly against the development of an integrated EU army, which is the probably the only way Europe can by itself deter aggression on its periphery.
- creato 5y ago
  I don’t know about an integrated EU army, but the US has been lobbying for Europe to expand its defense capabilities for years, that wasn’t just Trump.
- Balero 5y ago
  I think Russia's incompetent invasion goes to show that Europe can defend itself against Russia (at least discounting Nuclear Weapons, but who can defend there, and not just retaliate). And further more, that they should prepare in order to defend even more capably. In general some countries in Europe, notably Germany, have been relying on the US and to a lesser extent France, UK and Poland to defend them from Russia. But recent events have caused a change in tack here.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > Russia's incompetent invasion goes to show that Europe can defend itself against Russia The incompetence cuts both ways. They're unlikely to win a land war in Europe. But they're apparently happy to start wars they can't win.
    - Balero 5y ago
      Hopefully after this pointless fiasco they will be less happy to start something. But it is a good reason for European countries to keep supplying Ukraine, and to build their own defence forces. Good point though! I hadn't thought of that.
- jhgb 5y ago
  > The truth is Europe is utterly helpless militarily. They can't defend against Russian action in Eastern Europe without American military power. If you paid any attention to recent weeks, it would have occurred to you that the rest of Europe would obliterate Russian forces if Russia dared to attack with its absolutely inept ground forces.
- malka 5y ago
  > created: 61 days ago hmmm.
  - legalcorrection 5y ago
    Give me a break. If you look through my other comments and still think I'm a paid shill, then you're paranoid and seeing ghosts.
- orwin 5y ago
  I'm pretty sure the Russian cannot detect French Rafale in enemy territory, and while MICA can hit most Russian planes without troubles AND defend against R77s, i'm not convinced old long distance missile like the R-27 can actually lock on a Rafale, let alone hit it. Also i'm not sure there is a chance for any Russian fighter to avoid getting hit by a Meteor, so i guess Russia would have to destroy Eu satellites and hope the US doesn't lend theirs? Also i think Europe have more MICA-VF than Ukrainian had manpads. So the Russian would have to go ground-only. I don't think they have something as good as MICAVF to defend against let's say SCALP, so most of the artillery would have to stay under cover (and again, need to destroy EU satellites). I'm pretty sure the fuel tech used in the Meteors could be used in AtS missiles too, and that would render any artillery useless as long as any EU satellites can discover the piece. Basically, mechanized infantery and tanks would have to be the way to go.
spurgu 5y ago
The US as well (massively) if this leads to a shift off the petrodollar.
- echelon 5y ago
  This is one of the developments I've been watching with interest. Saudi Arabia seems to be interested in trading oil in Yuan now [1], which would mark an enormous shift away from the petrodollar. And from one of the US' biggest oil trading partners, at that. Does anyone with more context in the energy / geopolitical world care to add some color? [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541 https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-acceptin... edit: add link, +" away from the petrodollar"
  - ericmay 5y ago
    It doesn't matter. They were only proposing this for trade with China, and the USD is useful regardless. Notice how nobody in Europe is worried that the Euro isn't the primary trading currency for oil, and the Euro is worth more than the USD? The only existential threat to the USD is an actual civil war in the United States. I don't even view cryptocurrency as a threat.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > if this leads to a shift off the petrodollar Given the petrodollar hypothesis for dollar dominance is a debunked myth, no. (TL; DR Oil is priced and trades in numerous currencies. America is not dependent on foreign oil. The global transaction volumes in oil, across currencies, pales next to total U.S. dollar volumes.) We've in all but explicit name cancelled the deal with the House of Saud that created the petrodollar because petrodollars are no longer useful to us.

> The real winner is the West. The real winner is US. Europe will pay for this war by its' economy.

by vogre 5y ago

> The real winner is the West. The real winner is US. Europe will pay for this war by its' economy.

Yes, good point. The truth is Europe is utterly helpless militarily. They can't defend against Russian action in Eastern Europe without American military power. So they have to accept these sanctions as the cost of that protection. This is no doubt part of the why the United States has lobbied so strongly against the development of an integrated EU army, which is the probably the only way Europe can by itself deter aggression on its periphery.

creato 5y ago
I don’t know about an integrated EU army, but the US has been lobbying for Europe to expand its defense capabilities for years, that wasn’t just Trump.
Balero 5y ago
I think Russia's incompetent invasion goes to show that Europe can defend itself against Russia (at least discounting Nuclear Weapons, but who can defend there, and not just retaliate). And further more, that they should prepare in order to defend even more capably. In general some countries in Europe, notably Germany, have been relying on the US and to a lesser extent France, UK and Poland to defend them from Russia. But recent events have caused a change in tack here.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > Russia's incompetent invasion goes to show that Europe can defend itself against Russia The incompetence cuts both ways. They're unlikely to win a land war in Europe. But they're apparently happy to start wars they can't win.
  - Balero 5y ago
    Hopefully after this pointless fiasco they will be less happy to start something. But it is a good reason for European countries to keep supplying Ukraine, and to build their own defence forces. Good point though! I hadn't thought of that.
jhgb 5y ago
> The truth is Europe is utterly helpless militarily. They can't defend against Russian action in Eastern Europe without American military power. If you paid any attention to recent weeks, it would have occurred to you that the rest of Europe would obliterate Russian forces if Russia dared to attack with its absolutely inept ground forces.
malka 5y ago
> created: 61 days ago hmmm.
- legalcorrection 5y ago
  Give me a break. If you look through my other comments and still think I'm a paid shill, then you're paranoid and seeing ghosts.
orwin 5y ago
I'm pretty sure the Russian cannot detect French Rafale in enemy territory, and while MICA can hit most Russian planes without troubles AND defend against R77s, i'm not convinced old long distance missile like the R-27 can actually lock on a Rafale, let alone hit it. Also i'm not sure there is a chance for any Russian fighter to avoid getting hit by a Meteor, so i guess Russia would have to destroy Eu satellites and hope the US doesn't lend theirs? Also i think Europe have more MICA-VF than Ukrainian had manpads. So the Russian would have to go ground-only. I don't think they have something as good as MICAVF to defend against let's say SCALP, so most of the artillery would have to stay under cover (and again, need to destroy EU satellites). I'm pretty sure the fuel tech used in the Meteors could be used in AtS missiles too, and that would render any artillery useless as long as any EU satellites can discover the piece. Basically, mechanized infantery and tanks would have to be the way to go.

spurgu 5y ago

The US as well (massively) if this leads to a shift off the petrodollar.

echelon 5y ago
This is one of the developments I've been watching with interest. Saudi Arabia seems to be interested in trading oil in Yuan now [1], which would mark an enormous shift away from the petrodollar. And from one of the US' biggest oil trading partners, at that. Does anyone with more context in the energy / geopolitical world care to add some color? [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541 https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-acceptin... edit: add link, +" away from the petrodollar"
- ericmay 5y ago
  It doesn't matter. They were only proposing this for trade with China, and the USD is useful regardless. Notice how nobody in Europe is worried that the Euro isn't the primary trading currency for oil, and the Euro is worth more than the USD? The only existential threat to the USD is an actual civil war in the United States. I don't even view cryptocurrency as a threat.
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> if this leads to a shift off the petrodollar Given the petrodollar hypothesis for dollar dominance is a debunked myth, no. (TL; DR Oil is priced and trades in numerous currencies. America is not dependent on foreign oil. The global transaction volumes in oil, across currencies, pales next to total U.S. dollar volumes.) We've in all but explicit name cancelled the deal with the House of Saud that created the petrodollar because petrodollars are no longer useful to us.