9 ms·

Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

133 points by philipDS 15y ago

flyosity 15y ago
I think we all saw what we wanted to see. I wanted an iPhone 5 and journalists wanted to write about an iPhone 5 so that was the story we all focused on. Looking back there are multiple signs that the 4S was going to be the only new model introduced, but just like Fox Mulder, we all wanted to believe.
- emilsedgh 15y ago
  Why does your comment sound like coming of 'iphone 5' is the most important thing on earth that humanity couldnt survive without? Seriously, I dont want to troll and I understand that iphone's are cool, people want them and even many people in HN have businesses based on it, but "we all wanted to believe"? is iphone5 that important? This is beyond simple fanboism. This is a disaster.
saddino 15y ago
The problem for big (and small) media is that hype (and its counterpart FUD) drives page views. Even good writers are more apt to fall for the "big" story even if they know it sounds fishy. Wishful thinking and greed (for clicks) leads to speculation run rampant.
Tichy 15y ago
One of these days I really must create a bunch of alter egos and make them predict different things. Then I can style the remaining ego that predicted the right thing into a prophet and make big money.
- jsavimbi 15y ago
  Too much hassle. Start with one persona and just keep revising estimates as word comes out without mentioning it. Then obfuscate by "calling out" other experts. Nobody can be arsed to click the link you provide and wade through commentary to refute you anyway. Just remember to answer any question with "It's what I've been saying all along..." and use short, choppy sentences.
  - akashshah 15y ago
    You mean like MG Siegler?
  - wanorris 15y ago
    IMHO, the most shameless was Jonathan Geller at BGR, who not only hyped the supposedly impending iPhone 5 to death, he released a story on Monday pushing a rumor that Sprint was getting an exclusive 4G iPhone 5. Yesterday, his iPhone 4S story offered this astonishing course reversal: "While confusion was sprinkled throughout the industry on exactly what Apple would announce, most seemed to agree that the iPhone 4S would be the smartphone that Apple ultimately would unveil." http://www.bgr.com/2011/10/04/apple-iphone-4s-unveiled/ http://www.bgr.com/2011/10/04/apple-iphone-4s-unveiled/
    - jsavimbi 15y ago
      See? If you didn't know who he was or read his Apple-related articles previous to the release, you'd think the guy was no moron. Admit nothing.
- snarfman 15y ago
  This is how some sports betting scams work. I can email a lot of people with one side of a wager and another large lot with the other side. The next week I'll just use the winning side email pool to send out another split wager. All the while I invite bettors to join my foolproof pick service. In a few weeks I'm looking pretty good to a small group.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
brackin 15y ago
I showed my friends the iPhone 4S today without mentioning how some people online are disappointed and they loved it, they aren't geeks and were part of the group that said the iPad was useless and just a big iPod. Most of the UK news outlets i've seen haven't reported it as a flop of any kind just reported it as an update. People seem really excited by Siri, they thought it was impossible and I heard similar thoughts on the radio. Not sure if it's just the tech news bubble or that people love Apple. I got all of the features I wanted but didn't get the design changes. I'm glad Apple didn't call it 4G as technically they can now as what makes 4G was changed once all of these phones called themselves 4G.
- demallien 15y ago
  You know, I honestly don't know why people are saying that they're disappointed. For me, this is the first iPhone since the original that gave me a real 'Wow, the future has just arrived' moment. For the original phone it was the Minority Report UI. This time around it's the Star Trek computer that talks to you. When Apple start running TV ads showing off Siri, the average consumer is going to love it.
  - hopeless 15y ago
    How many people ever tried using the Voice Control in the iPhone 4? Siri is one of those features (awesome technological achievement notwithstanding) that's great to demo but largely irrelevant (or even unknown) to most users. It's this generation's Carousel view.
    - _djo_ 15y ago
      The technology (and engineers) behind Voice Control and Siri are completely different.
      - thematt 15y ago
        Not that I necessarily agree, but I think his point is that they have overlapping use cases and that people aren't avoiding Voice Control because it sucks, they're not using it because they don't have a huge need to.
mcritz 15y ago
The author's superfluous use of words written in all capital letters and liberal use of exclamation points speaks volumes towards his credibility.
- ugh 15y ago
  Your focus on that speaks volumes about how superficial you are :-)
- rsanchez1 15y ago
  The man has a point, though. You're just disappointed that there was no iPhone 5.
prawn 15y ago
Saw the common reaction to the iPhone 5 disappointment summarised loosely as: "If this new product looks like the last one, how will people tell that I'm superior to them?"
- mikeash 15y ago
  If this exact same phone had come out with the name "iPhone 5", and maybe a different case, people would be praising it to the heavens. People are weird.
  - robgough 15y ago
    I don't agree with you on that one. I think people would have been more upset, as they expect a number increase = new design.
    - mikeash 15y ago
      That's the "maybe a different case" bit.
      - robgough 15y ago
        my apologies, seem to have missed that in my initial read. I still think there were no breakout features this time round though. Siri being '4S' only is a bit of a cheek - and everything else felt firmly incremental. Even iOS 5 doesn't excite me much except for the notification system (though that is much appreciated). Apple are experts in taking a feature their competitors technically have, but few customers use - and taking it 'mainstream' - nothing along those lines this time. It seems to me that their next breakthrough in that regard is likely to be the NFC stuff, presumably to arrive with iPhone 5.
        mikeash 15y ago
        I don't think breakout features are really that necessary, though. There's tremendous value in incremental improvements. The 3GS was "only" an incremental improvement over the 3G, but the net result was a vastly better device. The iPhone 4's only breakout features were the screen (which is pretty impressive, but not ultimately all that consequential) and the new look. I don't think there's anything wrong with taking a great product and just making it greater. In fact, it seems to me that a lot of other companies miss that part and instead try too hard to come up with new stuff that will amaze people, which results in a worse product overall.
chugger 15y ago
some interesting points: * More than 90% of Americans still don’t own an iPhone. Heck, two-thirds of Americans still don’t own a smartphone. So the iPhone 4 design isn’t “old” to them. * http://www.splatf.com/2011/10/iphone-4s/ http://www.splatf.com/2011/10/iphone-4s/
- matwood 15y ago
  I agree with everything the article says. IMHO, the biggest announcement from yesterday is the $99 iPhone4. I think consumers when given the choice between a cheaper Android (not the flagship ones at $200+) handsets or an iPhone4 will pick the iPhone4.
  - hugh3 15y ago
    On a two-year contract, the difference between a $199 iPhone and a $99 iPhone is, what, five percent?
    - fleitz 15y ago
      When you're in the store it's twice the price.
    - matwood 15y ago
      Most people don't think like that (last I read the average American is $8k+ in CC debt). Also, see how many people are using the free phone that comes with their contract.
wallflower 15y ago
The real reason (according to a CNET blog) is that iPhone 4 users are still locked into their 2-year contracts. The iPhone 4S is a good intermediate product which might attract former iPhone users (out of contract) or Droid users.
- ajross 15y ago
  That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features. Hell, the original iPhone was dropped en masse by pretty much everyone in favor of the 3G when it was released after just a year. That sounds more like an excuse than a "real reason" honestly. The real reason, of course, is that Apple didn't have anything revolutionary to ship (other than an out-of-house software product that they turned into a "hardware" feature by fiat). I'm not convinced that's bad, really. I think a bigger issue is that smartphones are turning into a mature product and there's simply less revolution to be had. But my gut is with the many other people who have voiced similar intuitions: this feels a lot like the mid-90's, when Apple stagnated in the face of clear motion in the industry, chasing old markets while new ones opened. Is the iPhone 4S the new Centris?
  - _djo_ 15y ago
    "That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features." Not so, the pattern of introducing an entirely new model only every second year and a performance boost of the existing model in between is one that Apple has followed since the iPhone 3G: iPhone 3G -> iPhone 3GS -> iPhone 4 -> iPhone 4S For that reason I was not expecting an iPhone 5 and was bemused by all the hype surrounding it. Yet objectively this is a significant upgrade with a huge performance gain, the addition of a very exciting feature in Siri (I suspect it's limited to the iPhone 4S as a result of the decision to add dedicated processing hardware) and a vastly-improved camera. The iPhone 4 design is great and extremely successful, I don't understand why people are so upset that it wasn't changed.
    - CamperBob 15y ago
achompas 15y ago
Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case designs, etc. Traffic spikes. 3. Live blog the launch event. Toss in snarky one-liners ("Siri? beam me up Scotty m i rite lolol") because you and your readers are too cool to watch the keynote but I guessssss we'll tune in anyway. Servers overload with traffic. 4. Write editorials complaining about how pie-in-the-sky features from #1 don't arrive. Cover your ass by reporting "supply chain delays" from unnamed sources. Hits among disillusioned gadget connoisseurs (heh) spike. 4.5. AAPL falls 2-3% even though the product will break sales records again. Yawn. 5. Break for a week or two to avoid tech journalism burnout, then repeat for next product. (e.g. iPad HD supply chain rumors in Nov/Dec). Traffic spikes. Whatever. EDIT: My favorite was the rumor about the iPad 2 getting a HD screen. The next best screen on the market (the Xoom) was like 140 ppi. Why would Apple drop $n >> 0 per iPad when competitors' screens are relatively abysmal and the iPad would sell out? Anyone who bought that rumor displayed a serious unfamiliarity with the concepts of marginal benefit and marginal cost. EDIT 2: Go read the child comment by chugger. It's all about the short positions.
- gks 15y ago
  Yup. MacRumors really did a disservice to everyone with that mock up stuff. I get what the reasoning was, but that doesn't make it any better. Sometimes the rumor sites just flat out get it wrong, and MacRumors I think is responsible for a lot of over-zealous reporting. That said, the stock lost some ground, but the thing with Apple's stock, it always goes up before and after their quarterly earnings calls. They continue to defy the numbers people expect from it. Their profits are going to continue to rise, and with it, so will the stock. The geeks that have to have the new shiny will be disappointed, however, the casual user will love the iPhone 4S and it well sell like crazy. At least just as well as the iPhone 4. Were we all hoping to see an "iPhone 5" ? Yup. I think we all were hoping, however little, that it would show up. But many of us with any sense of reasoning and logic regarding Apple have pretty much known that this update was going to be almost exactly what it was. Apple is on a two year design plan. Excuse the original iPhone since that was the exception (again, not that the iPhone 5 couldn't have been one as well). But if you look at it now, it becomes a lot more clear. iPhone 3G-> iPhone 3GS (Faster processor, more ram and the same design). iPhone 4->iPhone 4S (Faster processor, probably more ram, same design). Next year we'll see a new case design, and maybe it'll resemble the tapered design that has been rumored. I'm kind of hoping against it since it would be awkward to hold in landscape orientation. Something that is curved in both directions would be neat. As long as it is symetrical. The problem with a "banana" shape is that it would no longer sit flat on a desk and that would bother me. I'm pretty happy with the iPhone4/4S case. I kind of wish it was a bit more curved on the edges since I find the metal "mid-case" to be a bit sharp, not a cut you kind of sharp, but it could be more blunt and thus more comfortable in your hand. Think more pebble shaped with regard to the sides.
bhartzer 15y ago
Honestly, I think that they wanted to launch the iPhone 5. But it just probably wasn't ready for "prime time" yet.
ABCD_FUFU 15y ago
The guy completely misses the point. The only feature missing was a bigger screen, not LTE. The reason there was no screen is because apple pissed off samsung. Whay would samsung give apple third gen amoled?
protomyth 15y ago
It seems like, with most of the tech media, if they had called it a 5 it would have gone over better. The A5 processor in this thing is nothing to sneeze at. I am hopeful about the new antenna system, but will need to see it in action in a rural environment. Never mind the adding of Sprint and the price reduction on the 3GS and 4. The screen is dense enough pixel wise, and consumers don't have to wait for new cases, bumpers, etc. since the iPhone 4 stuff works well. It is a good thing for consumers. I am more and more convinced most of these stories were pre-written as soon as the 4S designation was found in iTunes. I am particularly down on All Things D and feel their reporting is pretty much useless.
hemancuso 15y ago
I'm surprised nobody is pointing out similarity to Intel's very successful Tick-Tock release cycle - release a new architecture on tick and refine the process on tock The benefits for Apple are manifold, but the two most obvious are: 1. Keep expectations sane - they can't release a radical new industrial design of superbly high quality every year. 2. Give customers on a 2 year contract predictable value rather than leaving them always waiting for the next awesome device
- kenjackson 15y ago
  People have mentioned the tick/tock model. In fact, I did, and even said they should just do an iPhone 4s this time around: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3061278 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3061278 I also noted they should tick the iPhone when the iPad tocks.
- azulum 15y ago
  @siracusa makes this very point in yesterday's 5by5 special http://5by5.tv/specials/1 http://5by5.tv/specials/1
- InclinedPlane 15y ago
  Microsoft does the same thing with Windows. Tick: Windows 95, Tock: Windows 98 Tick: Windows 2000, Tock: Windows XP Tick: Windows Vista, Tock: Windows 7
  - Florin_Andrei 15y ago
    Except this "tick" (iPhone 4) was actually pretty good, whereas in your example all the "ticks" were abysmal failures.
    - grillz 15y ago
      I didn't feel like Windows 95 and 2000 were failures. In fact, Windows 2000 was one of their best releases.
    - danh 15y ago
ngsayjoe 15y ago
I think the reason there is no iPhone 5 is becoz the LTE / TD-LTE / WiMAX hybrid-chip is not yet ready. When iPhone 5 comes out it is gonna run on Verizon LTE, Sprint WiMAX and China Mobile TD-LTE networks.
SeanLuke 15y ago
Isn't there also something about a promise Verizon gave the government when they won their LTE spectrum? That all devices on the network would be open to any application? I recall Google using this as a club over the iPhone 5 on Verizon.
nextparadigms 15y ago
Wait a minute. What's all this "the iPhone 5 didn't arrive because LTE chips weren't good enough" ? It wasn't mandatory for an "iPhone 5" to have LTE in the first place. Just because it wouldn't have had LTE ,doesn't mean they couldn't have made an "iPhone 5". And if it's all about economics, then I guess it makes even more sense to keep the same design for 3, or even 4 years, no? That's probably what would happen if the iPhone had no competition, seeing how even with strong competition from Android, they still don't seem to care about using the same phone over and over again. What's funny is that when HTC releases a more "refined" design (but still basically the same), the media is all "oh, same old design from HTC". But when Apple does it, "well, they are just refining a work of art!" or "It's the inside that counts!" Yeah right. Most people buy phones for 3 main reasons: 1) design - and they don't want the same old one over and over again. It's no coincidence the iPhone 3GS was the most disappointing iPhone launch so far, too - until now that is 2) price - people will buy the phone they can afford 3) value - the most bang for the buck
- azulum 15y ago
  you are conflating many different people into one. so here's me: i like apple products. i like HTC's variations on a theme. i was disappointed by the 4S because i like new things, even if only on the outside. (though the 4S has an S on it, like superman, heh) apple has its reasons for not changing the design and they are sound as ever—evolutionary, not revolutionary. and it makes so much sense for the 2-year upgrade cycle. considering too that apple is trying to make as many devices as possible, the same old design really helps them to that end. i am disappointed. but the product is by no means a disappointment. (i really wanted an ipod touch 3g with upgraded internals that could go month by month like the ipad and do facetime/skype over wifi/3g)
raldi 15y ago
The real reason Apple called it an "iPhone 4S" is that they want to start selling the 4 to the large segment of the market shy of the cutting edge. Plenty of people will buy something called a "4" when the state of the art is a "4S" -- there's no embarrassment there: "Oh, my discount phone is almost as good; it's just missing an S. And it's not like my friends will be able to tell that I'm using last year's model. It looks the same." But if the latest model is called the "5", then suddenly there's a stigma to having the 4. You're stuck one full number behind the Joneses. And everybody knows, because you're still using the phone with the unfashionable flat back while everyone else has the slick new teardrop design that's all the rage.
- krobertson 15y ago
  I don't know if I agree with the reasoning of the "4" being like the "4S" as the reason for buying. I'd look at it instead as on the surface, looking at someone using an iPhone, you wouldn't be able to tell if it was a 4 or a 4S. The 4S will sell to early adopters and power users, and the 4 will sell to more price conscious late adopters. Either way, Apple wins. They're already doing good with iPhone 4 production, probably have decent amount stocked, and production costs between the two don't change too much.
- jsz0 15y ago
  Interesting theory but personally I don't see that most normal people care about that type of stuff at all. The 2+ year old 3GS was the #2 best selling SmartPhone last month even though it's using a 3+ year old design. If anyone was really that insecure about themselves they would probably just spend the extra $100 to get the latest & greatest.
ChuckFrank 15y ago
It's called phased obsolescence. It is a terrible time to find a replacement for a lost ipod. I've been waiting until today's Apple event before getting anything. I was ready to be pleasantly surprised. Turns out Apple has just enough market share and momentum to waive their hands around for renewed sales. Why break ground when you can still make great profits off the old stuff? Nano is a software update. Touch has a new color (wowsy!). Phone has speaking app installed, a slightly faster chip. It is new technology at the slowest drip possible. Give me a small ipod with tons of storage. Easy enough, right? Look at the cost of memory these days. You can buy a 32GB SD card for $40. But Apple won't do that. The whole iCloud business looms. The iCloud is just a way to capture and sell you data. So they provide iTunes, integration with everything, then reel in the fishes. They haven't updated the capacity of any of their devices for four years. The ipod nano no longer has a camera, no longer shows videos, has a smaller screen than ever before, and the maximum capacity remains 16GB. But they come in a dazzling array of colors; come and get them while they last!!! Should I wait another 6 months? 12 months? I've thought about getting one of the old nanos, but I'm learning something about the mac I use for work. The computer itself is awesome, even though it is about 7 years old. It is actually faster and more stable than the 64-bit PC I got a few months ago. The thing is, fewer and fewer programs work on it. Google Earth was automatically updated and no longer works. A bunch of other programs are the same. This old architecture (PowerPC) doesn't support any new Adobe products or really any thing else that is new. Even browsers are starting to act weird. But it isn't the hardware, its great. It is that new software doesn't communicate with it anymore. So, I suspect the same will be true with these mac devices. Software will be designed specifically for new devices. So on older devices, either you won't be able to get the newest software or software will be automatically updated and cease to work. For instance, the click wheel now only exists on the ipod classic. Once the classic is discontinued, you can bet that any ipod with a click wheel will start having problems with any new OS. And they update the OS at least once a year. So you can't go back, even if the device remains superior. Welcome to Apple's vision of the future, the - phase it out, throw it away, buy it new - society.
- gwright 15y ago
  Apple's vision of the future? Lots of room for different opinions on the life cycle of electronics but: 1) What you are complaining about is a decades old, industry wide phenomena and not something vaguely unique about Apple. 2) Apple products tend to retain functionality and re-sale value much longer than their competitors.
farrel 15y ago
Outside of the case this is a brand new phone. A5 CPU, new GPU, better camera, better battery and better software (I believe Siri is 4S exclusive).
gamble 15y ago
The advantage of operating at Apple scale is the ability to buy components in vast quantities, giving Apple better deals and exclusivity that their competitors can't match. The downside is that they have to buy at those scales. Apple can't afford to ship anything that contains components they can't source by the million. If one HTC handset is delayed by six months thanks to part shortages, that's a problem for them. They have plenty of other products to fall back on, though. If an Apple product is delayed six months, it's a disaster. Apple would lose billions of dollars in revenue and suffer a PR holocaust. So when I see rumors like the Retina iPad 3, I always filter them by asking, "Can Apple get that part in increments of a million units?" Given that, it should be very rare for Apple to ship the first product containing any given component.
- cwp 15y ago
  Actually, I think Apple could ride out a 6 month product delay quite easily. It would seem that the 4S was delayed 3 or 4 months (part shortage resulting from the earthquake in Japan?) from the normal summer release with no ill effects. Releasing it in December would have been bad, sure, but that has more to do with Christmas than the length of the delay.
  - gamble 15y ago
    I'm thinking more the kind of delay where the product is already on the market and a part shortage stops production, leaving Apple with nothing to sell.
- 0x12 15y ago
  Downvoted for spurious use of the word 'holocaust'.
flocial 15y ago
I expected the 5 but I really admire how Apple stuck to their guns. With the CEO change any other company would have rushed out a new design to keep analysts happy considering the hardware boost (it's a bigger jump than 3S was to 4). While I prefer a rounder design personally I also don't want a mediocre iPhone. Apple won't refresh a design until everything is right. Also people fail to realize that the 4S comes with an improved antenna so they did improve the things that matter. The downfall of Japanese manufacturers was adding features for features sake and switching up design to manufacture demand for the "new" model. Sony would have some nice products with promise but they always managed to screw something up with every iteration, never quite getting it right or abandoning product lines with passionate fans altogether. They're all struggling to stay alive now. The Koreans are doing the same only a little better (more innovation and focus on technology but still the same frequent changes). When the dust settles I think you'll see that people who purchase or upgrade to 4S will be more than satisfied with the end product.

133 points by philipDS 15y ago

I think we all saw what we wanted to see. I wanted an iPhone 5 and journalists wanted to write about an iPhone 5 so that was the story we all focused on. Looking back there are multiple signs that the 4S was going to be the only new model introduced, but just like Fox Mulder, we all wanted to believe.

emilsedgh 15y ago
Why does your comment sound like coming of 'iphone 5' is the most important thing on earth that humanity couldnt survive without? Seriously, I dont want to troll and I understand that iphone's are cool, people want them and even many people in HN have businesses based on it, but "we all wanted to believe"? is iphone5 that important? This is beyond simple fanboism. This is a disaster.

saddino 15y ago

The problem for big (and small) media is that hype (and its counterpart FUD) drives page views. Even good writers are more apt to fall for the "big" story even if they know it sounds fishy. Wishful thinking and greed (for clicks) leads to speculation run rampant.

Tichy 15y ago

One of these days I really must create a bunch of alter egos and make them predict different things. Then I can style the remaining ego that predicted the right thing into a prophet and make big money.

jsavimbi 15y ago
Too much hassle. Start with one persona and just keep revising estimates as word comes out without mentioning it. Then obfuscate by "calling out" other experts. Nobody can be arsed to click the link you provide and wade through commentary to refute you anyway. Just remember to answer any question with "It's what I've been saying all along..." and use short, choppy sentences.
- akashshah 15y ago
  You mean like MG Siegler?
- wanorris 15y ago
  IMHO, the most shameless was Jonathan Geller at BGR, who not only hyped the supposedly impending iPhone 5 to death, he released a story on Monday pushing a rumor that Sprint was getting an exclusive 4G iPhone 5. Yesterday, his iPhone 4S story offered this astonishing course reversal: "While confusion was sprinkled throughout the industry on exactly what Apple would announce, most seemed to agree that the iPhone 4S would be the smartphone that Apple ultimately would unveil." http://www.bgr.com/2011/10/04/apple-iphone-4s-unveiled/ http://www.bgr.com/2011/10/04/apple-iphone-4s-unveiled/
  - jsavimbi 15y ago
    See? If you didn't know who he was or read his Apple-related articles previous to the release, you'd think the guy was no moron. Admit nothing.
snarfman 15y ago
This is how some sports betting scams work. I can email a lot of people with one side of a wager and another large lot with the other side. The next week I'll just use the winning side email pool to send out another split wager. All the while I invite bettors to join my foolproof pick service. In a few weeks I'm looking pretty good to a small group.
deleted 15y ago
[deleted]

brackin 15y ago

I showed my friends the iPhone 4S today without mentioning how some people online are disappointed and they loved it, they aren't geeks and were part of the group that said the iPad was useless and just a big iPod. Most of the UK news outlets i've seen haven't reported it as a flop of any kind just reported it as an update. People seem really excited by Siri, they thought it was impossible and I heard similar thoughts on the radio. Not sure if it's just the tech news bubble or that people love Apple. I got all of the features I wanted but didn't get the design changes. I'm glad Apple didn't call it 4G as technically they can now as what makes 4G was changed once all of these phones called themselves 4G.

demallien 15y ago
You know, I honestly don't know why people are saying that they're disappointed. For me, this is the first iPhone since the original that gave me a real 'Wow, the future has just arrived' moment. For the original phone it was the Minority Report UI. This time around it's the Star Trek computer that talks to you. When Apple start running TV ads showing off Siri, the average consumer is going to love it.
- hopeless 15y ago
  How many people ever tried using the Voice Control in the iPhone 4? Siri is one of those features (awesome technological achievement notwithstanding) that's great to demo but largely irrelevant (or even unknown) to most users. It's this generation's Carousel view.
  - _djo_ 15y ago
    The technology (and engineers) behind Voice Control and Siri are completely different.
    - thematt 15y ago
      Not that I necessarily agree, but I think his point is that they have overlapping use cases and that people aren't avoiding Voice Control because it sucks, they're not using it because they don't have a huge need to.

mcritz 15y ago

The author's superfluous use of words written in all capital letters and liberal use of exclamation points speaks volumes towards his credibility.

ugh 15y ago
Your focus on that speaks volumes about how superficial you are :-)
rsanchez1 15y ago
The man has a point, though. You're just disappointed that there was no iPhone 5.

prawn 15y ago

Saw the common reaction to the iPhone 5 disappointment summarised loosely as: "If this new product looks like the last one, how will people tell that I'm superior to them?"

mikeash 15y ago
If this exact same phone had come out with the name "iPhone 5", and maybe a different case, people would be praising it to the heavens. People are weird.
- robgough 15y ago
  I don't agree with you on that one. I think people would have been more upset, as they expect a number increase = new design.
  - mikeash 15y ago
    That's the "maybe a different case" bit.
    - robgough 15y ago
      my apologies, seem to have missed that in my initial read. I still think there were no breakout features this time round though. Siri being '4S' only is a bit of a cheek - and everything else felt firmly incremental. Even iOS 5 doesn't excite me much except for the notification system (though that is much appreciated). Apple are experts in taking a feature their competitors technically have, but few customers use - and taking it 'mainstream' - nothing along those lines this time. It seems to me that their next breakthrough in that regard is likely to be the NFC stuff, presumably to arrive with iPhone 5.
      - mikeash 15y ago
        I don't think breakout features are really that necessary, though. There's tremendous value in incremental improvements. The 3GS was "only" an incremental improvement over the 3G, but the net result was a vastly better device. The iPhone 4's only breakout features were the screen (which is pretty impressive, but not ultimately all that consequential) and the new look. I don't think there's anything wrong with taking a great product and just making it greater. In fact, it seems to me that a lot of other companies miss that part and instead try too hard to come up with new stuff that will amaze people, which results in a worse product overall.

chugger 15y ago

some interesting points: * More than 90% of Americans still don’t own an iPhone. Heck, two-thirds of Americans still don’t own a smartphone. So the iPhone 4 design isn’t “old” to them. * http://www.splatf.com/2011/10/iphone-4s/ http://www.splatf.com/2011/10/iphone-4s/

matwood 15y ago
I agree with everything the article says. IMHO, the biggest announcement from yesterday is the $99 iPhone4. I think consumers when given the choice between a cheaper Android (not the flagship ones at $200+) handsets or an iPhone4 will pick the iPhone4.
- hugh3 15y ago
  On a two-year contract, the difference between a $199 iPhone and a $99 iPhone is, what, five percent?
  - fleitz 15y ago
    When you're in the store it's twice the price.
  - matwood 15y ago
    Most people don't think like that (last I read the average American is $8k+ in CC debt). Also, see how many people are using the free phone that comes with their contract.

wallflower 15y ago

The real reason (according to a CNET blog) is that iPhone 4 users are still locked into their 2-year contracts. The iPhone 4S is a good intermediate product which might attract former iPhone users (out of contract) or Droid users.

ajross 15y ago
That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features. Hell, the original iPhone was dropped en masse by pretty much everyone in favor of the 3G when it was released after just a year. That sounds more like an excuse than a "real reason" honestly. The real reason, of course, is that Apple didn't have anything revolutionary to ship (other than an out-of-house software product that they turned into a "hardware" feature by fiat). I'm not convinced that's bad, really. I think a bigger issue is that smartphones are turning into a mature product and there's simply less revolution to be had. But my gut is with the many other people who have voiced similar intuitions: this feels a lot like the mid-90's, when Apple stagnated in the face of clear motion in the industry, chasing old markets while new ones opened. Is the iPhone 4S the new Centris?
- _djo_ 15y ago
  "That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features." Not so, the pattern of introducing an entirely new model only every second year and a performance boost of the existing model in between is one that Apple has followed since the iPhone 3G: iPhone 3G -> iPhone 3GS -> iPhone 4 -> iPhone 4S For that reason I was not expecting an iPhone 5 and was bemused by all the hype surrounding it. Yet objectively this is a significant upgrade with a huge performance gain, the addition of a very exciting feature in Siri (I suspect it's limited to the iPhone 4S as a result of the decision to add dedicated processing hardware) and a vastly-improved camera. The iPhone 4 design is great and extremely successful, I don't understand why people are so upset that it wasn't changed.
  - CamperBob 15y ago

achompas 15y ago

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case designs, etc. Traffic spikes. 3. Live blog the launch event. Toss in snarky one-liners ("Siri? beam me up Scotty m i rite lolol") because you and your readers are too cool to watch the keynote but I guessssss we'll tune in anyway. Servers overload with traffic. 4. Write editorials complaining about how pie-in-the-sky features from #1 don't arrive. Cover your ass by reporting "supply chain delays" from unnamed sources. Hits among disillusioned gadget connoisseurs (heh) spike. 4.5. AAPL falls 2-3% even though the product will break sales records again. Yawn. 5. Break for a week or two to avoid tech journalism burnout, then repeat for next product. (e.g. iPad HD supply chain rumors in Nov/Dec). Traffic spikes. Whatever. EDIT: My favorite was the rumor about the iPad 2 getting a HD screen. The next best screen on the market (the Xoom) was like 140 ppi. Why would Apple drop $n >> 0 per iPad when competitors' screens are relatively abysmal and the iPad would sell out? Anyone who bought that rumor displayed a serious unfamiliarity with the concepts of marginal benefit and marginal cost. EDIT 2: Go read the child comment by chugger. It's all about the short positions.

gks 15y ago
Yup. MacRumors really did a disservice to everyone with that mock up stuff. I get what the reasoning was, but that doesn't make it any better. Sometimes the rumor sites just flat out get it wrong, and MacRumors I think is responsible for a lot of over-zealous reporting. That said, the stock lost some ground, but the thing with Apple's stock, it always goes up before and after their quarterly earnings calls. They continue to defy the numbers people expect from it. Their profits are going to continue to rise, and with it, so will the stock. The geeks that have to have the new shiny will be disappointed, however, the casual user will love the iPhone 4S and it well sell like crazy. At least just as well as the iPhone 4. Were we all hoping to see an "iPhone 5" ? Yup. I think we all were hoping, however little, that it would show up. But many of us with any sense of reasoning and logic regarding Apple have pretty much known that this update was going to be almost exactly what it was. Apple is on a two year design plan. Excuse the original iPhone since that was the exception (again, not that the iPhone 5 couldn't have been one as well). But if you look at it now, it becomes a lot more clear. iPhone 3G-> iPhone 3GS (Faster processor, more ram and the same design). iPhone 4->iPhone 4S (Faster processor, probably more ram, same design). Next year we'll see a new case design, and maybe it'll resemble the tapered design that has been rumored. I'm kind of hoping against it since it would be awkward to hold in landscape orientation. Something that is curved in both directions would be neat. As long as it is symetrical. The problem with a "banana" shape is that it would no longer sit flat on a desk and that would bother me. I'm pretty happy with the iPhone4/4S case. I kind of wish it was a bit more curved on the edges since I find the metal "mid-case" to be a bit sharp, not a cut you kind of sharp, but it could be more blunt and thus more comfortable in your hand. Think more pebble shaped with regard to the sides.

bhartzer 15y ago

Honestly, I think that they wanted to launch the iPhone 5. But it just probably wasn't ready for "prime time" yet.

ABCD_FUFU 15y ago

The guy completely misses the point. The only feature missing was a bigger screen, not LTE. The reason there was no screen is because apple pissed off samsung. Whay would samsung give apple third gen amoled?

protomyth 15y ago

It seems like, with most of the tech media, if they had called it a 5 it would have gone over better. The A5 processor in this thing is nothing to sneeze at. I am hopeful about the new antenna system, but will need to see it in action in a rural environment. Never mind the adding of Sprint and the price reduction on the 3GS and 4. The screen is dense enough pixel wise, and consumers don't have to wait for new cases, bumpers, etc. since the iPhone 4 stuff works well. It is a good thing for consumers. I am more and more convinced most of these stories were pre-written as soon as the 4S designation was found in iTunes. I am particularly down on All Things D and feel their reporting is pretty much useless.

hemancuso 15y ago

I'm surprised nobody is pointing out similarity to Intel's very successful Tick-Tock release cycle - release a new architecture on tick and refine the process on tock The benefits for Apple are manifold, but the two most obvious are: 1. Keep expectations sane - they can't release a radical new industrial design of superbly high quality every year. 2. Give customers on a 2 year contract predictable value rather than leaving them always waiting for the next awesome device

kenjackson 15y ago
People have mentioned the tick/tock model. In fact, I did, and even said they should just do an iPhone 4s this time around: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3061278 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3061278 I also noted they should tick the iPhone when the iPad tocks.
azulum 15y ago
@siracusa makes this very point in yesterday's 5by5 special http://5by5.tv/specials/1 http://5by5.tv/specials/1
InclinedPlane 15y ago
Microsoft does the same thing with Windows. Tick: Windows 95, Tock: Windows 98 Tick: Windows 2000, Tock: Windows XP Tick: Windows Vista, Tock: Windows 7
- Florin_Andrei 15y ago
  Except this "tick" (iPhone 4) was actually pretty good, whereas in your example all the "ticks" were abysmal failures.
  - grillz 15y ago
    I didn't feel like Windows 95 and 2000 were failures. In fact, Windows 2000 was one of their best releases.
  - danh 15y ago

ngsayjoe 15y ago

I think the reason there is no iPhone 5 is becoz the LTE / TD-LTE / WiMAX hybrid-chip is not yet ready. When iPhone 5 comes out it is gonna run on Verizon LTE, Sprint WiMAX and China Mobile TD-LTE networks.

SeanLuke 15y ago

Isn't there also something about a promise Verizon gave the government when they won their LTE spectrum? That all devices on the network would be open to any application? I recall Google using this as a club over the iPhone 5 on Verizon.

nextparadigms 15y ago

Wait a minute. What's all this "the iPhone 5 didn't arrive because LTE chips weren't good enough" ? It wasn't mandatory for an "iPhone 5" to have LTE in the first place. Just because it wouldn't have had LTE ,doesn't mean they couldn't have made an "iPhone 5". And if it's all about economics, then I guess it makes even more sense to keep the same design for 3, or even 4 years, no? That's probably what would happen if the iPhone had no competition, seeing how even with strong competition from Android, they still don't seem to care about using the same phone over and over again. What's funny is that when HTC releases a more "refined" design (but still basically the same), the media is all "oh, same old design from HTC". But when Apple does it, "well, they are just refining a work of art!" or "It's the inside that counts!" Yeah right. Most people buy phones for 3 main reasons: 1) design - and they don't want the same old one over and over again. It's no coincidence the iPhone 3GS was the most disappointing iPhone launch so far, too - until now that is 2) price - people will buy the phone they can afford 3) value - the most bang for the buck

azulum 15y ago
you are conflating many different people into one. so here's me: i like apple products. i like HTC's variations on a theme. i was disappointed by the 4S because i like new things, even if only on the outside. (though the 4S has an S on it, like superman, heh) apple has its reasons for not changing the design and they are sound as ever—evolutionary, not revolutionary. and it makes so much sense for the 2-year upgrade cycle. considering too that apple is trying to make as many devices as possible, the same old design really helps them to that end. i am disappointed. but the product is by no means a disappointment. (i really wanted an ipod touch 3g with upgraded internals that could go month by month like the ipad and do facetime/skype over wifi/3g)

raldi 15y ago

The real reason Apple called it an "iPhone 4S" is that they want to start selling the 4 to the large segment of the market shy of the cutting edge. Plenty of people will buy something called a "4" when the state of the art is a "4S" -- there's no embarrassment there: "Oh, my discount phone is almost as good; it's just missing an S. And it's not like my friends will be able to tell that I'm using last year's model. It looks the same." But if the latest model is called the "5", then suddenly there's a stigma to having the 4. You're stuck one full number behind the Joneses. And everybody knows, because you're still using the phone with the unfashionable flat back while everyone else has the slick new teardrop design that's all the rage.

krobertson 15y ago
I don't know if I agree with the reasoning of the "4" being like the "4S" as the reason for buying. I'd look at it instead as on the surface, looking at someone using an iPhone, you wouldn't be able to tell if it was a 4 or a 4S. The 4S will sell to early adopters and power users, and the 4 will sell to more price conscious late adopters. Either way, Apple wins. They're already doing good with iPhone 4 production, probably have decent amount stocked, and production costs between the two don't change too much.
jsz0 15y ago
Interesting theory but personally I don't see that most normal people care about that type of stuff at all. The 2+ year old 3GS was the #2 best selling SmartPhone last month even though it's using a 3+ year old design. If anyone was really that insecure about themselves they would probably just spend the extra $100 to get the latest & greatest.

ChuckFrank 15y ago

It's called phased obsolescence. It is a terrible time to find a replacement for a lost ipod. I've been waiting until today's Apple event before getting anything. I was ready to be pleasantly surprised. Turns out Apple has just enough market share and momentum to waive their hands around for renewed sales. Why break ground when you can still make great profits off the old stuff? Nano is a software update. Touch has a new color (wowsy!). Phone has speaking app installed, a slightly faster chip. It is new technology at the slowest drip possible. Give me a small ipod with tons of storage. Easy enough, right? Look at the cost of memory these days. You can buy a 32GB SD card for $40. But Apple won't do that. The whole iCloud business looms. The iCloud is just a way to capture and sell you data. So they provide iTunes, integration with everything, then reel in the fishes. They haven't updated the capacity of any of their devices for four years. The ipod nano no longer has a camera, no longer shows videos, has a smaller screen than ever before, and the maximum capacity remains 16GB. But they come in a dazzling array of colors; come and get them while they last!!! Should I wait another 6 months? 12 months? I've thought about getting one of the old nanos, but I'm learning something about the mac I use for work. The computer itself is awesome, even though it is about 7 years old. It is actually faster and more stable than the 64-bit PC I got a few months ago. The thing is, fewer and fewer programs work on it. Google Earth was automatically updated and no longer works. A bunch of other programs are the same. This old architecture (PowerPC) doesn't support any new Adobe products or really any thing else that is new. Even browsers are starting to act weird. But it isn't the hardware, its great. It is that new software doesn't communicate with it anymore. So, I suspect the same will be true with these mac devices. Software will be designed specifically for new devices. So on older devices, either you won't be able to get the newest software or software will be automatically updated and cease to work. For instance, the click wheel now only exists on the ipod classic. Once the classic is discontinued, you can bet that any ipod with a click wheel will start having problems with any new OS. And they update the OS at least once a year. So you can't go back, even if the device remains superior. Welcome to Apple's vision of the future, the - phase it out, throw it away, buy it new - society.

gwright 15y ago
Apple's vision of the future? Lots of room for different opinions on the life cycle of electronics but: 1) What you are complaining about is a decades old, industry wide phenomena and not something vaguely unique about Apple. 2) Apple products tend to retain functionality and re-sale value much longer than their competitors.

farrel 15y ago

Outside of the case this is a brand new phone. A5 CPU, new GPU, better camera, better battery and better software (I believe Siri is 4S exclusive).

gamble 15y ago

The advantage of operating at Apple scale is the ability to buy components in vast quantities, giving Apple better deals and exclusivity that their competitors can't match. The downside is that they have to buy at those scales. Apple can't afford to ship anything that contains components they can't source by the million. If one HTC handset is delayed by six months thanks to part shortages, that's a problem for them. They have plenty of other products to fall back on, though. If an Apple product is delayed six months, it's a disaster. Apple would lose billions of dollars in revenue and suffer a PR holocaust. So when I see rumors like the Retina iPad 3, I always filter them by asking, "Can Apple get that part in increments of a million units?" Given that, it should be very rare for Apple to ship the first product containing any given component.

cwp 15y ago
Actually, I think Apple could ride out a 6 month product delay quite easily. It would seem that the 4S was delayed 3 or 4 months (part shortage resulting from the earthquake in Japan?) from the normal summer release with no ill effects. Releasing it in December would have been bad, sure, but that has more to do with Christmas than the length of the delay.
- gamble 15y ago
  I'm thinking more the kind of delay where the product is already on the market and a part shortage stops production, leaving Apple with nothing to sell.
0x12 15y ago
Downvoted for spurious use of the word 'holocaust'.

flocial 15y ago

I expected the 5 but I really admire how Apple stuck to their guns. With the CEO change any other company would have rushed out a new design to keep analysts happy considering the hardware boost (it's a bigger jump than 3S was to 4). While I prefer a rounder design personally I also don't want a mediocre iPhone. Apple won't refresh a design until everything is right. Also people fail to realize that the 4S comes with an improved antenna so they did improve the things that matter. The downfall of Japanese manufacturers was adding features for features sake and switching up design to manufacture demand for the "new" model. Sony would have some nice products with promise but they always managed to screw something up with every iteration, never quite getting it right or abandoning product lines with passionate fans altogether. They're all struggling to stay alive now. The Koreans are doing the same only a little better (more innovation and focus on technology but still the same frequent changes). When the dust settles I think you'll see that people who purchase or upgrade to 4S will be more than satisfied with the end product.