6 ms·

So what will be the consequences of this? Article makes it clear this is not normal, but doesn't really say much else.

by bruce343434 5y ago

pil0u 5y ago
I'd argue that such event is the consequences.
- ianai 5y ago
  And melting all that ice would have drastic effects on the oceans. Current changes, sea level rises, etc. we probably can only estimate at the lower range of consequences.
elif 5y ago
Accelerated calving, meltwater flows, unsafe ice conditions for researchers would be some of the immediate consequences, in addition to the obvious long-term atmospheric and oceanic implications resulting from ice volume loss.
- fallingknife 5y ago
  It's still below freezing. It's just supposed to be way colder than that.
  - throwaway290 5y ago
    Under the hood Antarctica is way hotter way closer to the surface than you might expect. There are volcanoes, too. We probably want the weather to stay much colder than the negative one degree Celsius technically required for it to not melt straight away. Could make a critical difference or at least soften the impact.
    - hh3k0 5y ago
      And it is winter in Antarctica, a mild winter can make the impact of summer worse.
      - digisign 5y ago
        It is summer and ending in a few days.
    - drewmol 5y ago
      Isn't it more like < -2 Celcius ambient temperature, since it's sea water?
    - traeregan 5y ago
      > Under the hood Antarctica is way hotter way closer to the surface than you might expect. There are volcanoes, too. Thanks, I had no idea. I found this related article interesting: http://www.plateclimatology.com/geological-hotspot-melting-pine-island-and-thwaites-glaciers-not-global-warming http://www.plateclimatology.com/geological-hotspot-melting-p...
kadoban 5y ago
Nobody really knows, and it's too late to do anything real about it. Fun times.
- einpoklum 5y ago
  It is too late to do something about what happens _today_, it is not too late to do something about what is now likely to happen in a decade, and two, and three. Your comment sounds like on of the stages of the "four stage strategy" from Yes Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak originally about why the UK doesn't help foreign nations in an inconvenient crisis.
  - kadoban 5y ago
    > [...] a decade, and two, and three. My understanding is that very little of what we do now would have any effect on what happens in a decade. Maybe in three.
  - yissp 5y ago
    Amazing, I would totally have assumed that clip was referring to climate change without any other context.
    - Jaruzel 5y ago
      Most of the great scenes from Yes Minister, and latterly Yes Prime Minister, still not only stand up today, but are also surprisingly still relevant 40 years after they were first broadcast. It truly was a genius show.
- pil0u 5y ago
  That is wrong on many levels. Such nihilist position does not help the millions of people leading concrete actions on different scales. You are wrong, it's not too late to change how we behave regarding climate and such way of thinking is unlikely to induce the required actions.
  - 5y ago
justanother 5y ago
The Elder Things will awaken and humanity will have to choose a side between the Elders and the Shoggoths.
ben_w 5y ago
The equivalent sea level rise numbers here are larger than I was expecting, but if temperatures are regularly above melting (are they? IDK from the article), one should expect something like this: https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/what-is-the-global-volume-of-land-ice-and-how-is-it-changing/ https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/what-...
luxuryballs 5y ago
Nothing long term, it will most likely swing back the other way in a decade or two just like it has done for all of recorded history, oscillating back and forth like a global thermal tide.
- Kim_Bruning 5y ago
  For that to be true, it either should have swung back already, or at least it needs to do so very VERY soon. https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/
toss1 5y ago
If it is just some kind of random anomaly, like a rogue wave, not much beyond an odd layer in the glacial ice pack. The problem is that this is most definitely not an anomaly, but a point in a trend of massive climate change. There are many predictions of the consequences, and as far as I can tell, the actual data are running ahead of the most serious predictions. Seems like just another data point. Also to consider is the multiplier effects of higher temperatures at high latitudes, which is already starting to release gigatons of methane stored in the permafrost, and methane has about 22X the warming effect of carbon dioxide. Not the kind of feedback loop we want to allow to run away.
tejohnso 5y ago
One of the major concerns, alluded to in the article, is the destabilization of the Thwaites. If that thing goes, we're done.

So what will be the consequences of this? Article makes it clear this is not normal, but doesn't really say much else.

pil0u 5y ago

I'd argue that such event is the consequences.

ianai 5y ago
And melting all that ice would have drastic effects on the oceans. Current changes, sea level rises, etc. we probably can only estimate at the lower range of consequences.

elif 5y ago

Accelerated calving, meltwater flows, unsafe ice conditions for researchers would be some of the immediate consequences, in addition to the obvious long-term atmospheric and oceanic implications resulting from ice volume loss.

fallingknife 5y ago
It's still below freezing. It's just supposed to be way colder than that.
- throwaway290 5y ago
  Under the hood Antarctica is way hotter way closer to the surface than you might expect. There are volcanoes, too. We probably want the weather to stay much colder than the negative one degree Celsius technically required for it to not melt straight away. Could make a critical difference or at least soften the impact.
  - hh3k0 5y ago
    And it is winter in Antarctica, a mild winter can make the impact of summer worse.
    - digisign 5y ago
      It is summer and ending in a few days.
  - drewmol 5y ago
    Isn't it more like < -2 Celcius ambient temperature, since it's sea water?
  - traeregan 5y ago
    > Under the hood Antarctica is way hotter way closer to the surface than you might expect. There are volcanoes, too. Thanks, I had no idea. I found this related article interesting: http://www.plateclimatology.com/geological-hotspot-melting-pine-island-and-thwaites-glaciers-not-global-warming http://www.plateclimatology.com/geological-hotspot-melting-p...

kadoban 5y ago

Nobody really knows, and it's too late to do anything real about it. Fun times.

einpoklum 5y ago
It is too late to do something about what happens _today_, it is not too late to do something about what is now likely to happen in a decade, and two, and three. Your comment sounds like on of the stages of the "four stage strategy" from Yes Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak originally about why the UK doesn't help foreign nations in an inconvenient crisis.
- kadoban 5y ago
  > [...] a decade, and two, and three. My understanding is that very little of what we do now would have any effect on what happens in a decade. Maybe in three.
- yissp 5y ago
  Amazing, I would totally have assumed that clip was referring to climate change without any other context.
  - Jaruzel 5y ago
    Most of the great scenes from Yes Minister, and latterly Yes Prime Minister, still not only stand up today, but are also surprisingly still relevant 40 years after they were first broadcast. It truly was a genius show.
pil0u 5y ago
That is wrong on many levels. Such nihilist position does not help the millions of people leading concrete actions on different scales. You are wrong, it's not too late to change how we behave regarding climate and such way of thinking is unlikely to induce the required actions.
- 5y ago

justanother 5y ago

The Elder Things will awaken and humanity will have to choose a side between the Elders and the Shoggoths.

ben_w 5y ago

The equivalent sea level rise numbers here are larger than I was expecting, but if temperatures are regularly above melting (are they? IDK from the article), one should expect something like this: https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/what-is-the-global-volume-of-land-ice-and-how-is-it-changing/ https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/what-...

luxuryballs 5y ago

Nothing long term, it will most likely swing back the other way in a decade or two just like it has done for all of recorded history, oscillating back and forth like a global thermal tide.

Kim_Bruning 5y ago
For that to be true, it either should have swung back already, or at least it needs to do so very VERY soon. https://xkcd.com/1732/ https://xkcd.com/1732/

toss1 5y ago

If it is just some kind of random anomaly, like a rogue wave, not much beyond an odd layer in the glacial ice pack. The problem is that this is most definitely not an anomaly, but a point in a trend of massive climate change. There are many predictions of the consequences, and as far as I can tell, the actual data are running ahead of the most serious predictions. Seems like just another data point. Also to consider is the multiplier effects of higher temperatures at high latitudes, which is already starting to release gigatons of methane stored in the permafrost, and methane has about 22X the warming effect of carbon dioxide. Not the kind of feedback loop we want to allow to run away.

tejohnso 5y ago

One of the major concerns, alluded to in the article, is the destabilization of the Thwaites. If that thing goes, we're done.