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My granny was a statistician during Soviet times. She knows a lot about food supply chain on Europe. It didn’t change a lot during last decades. Now every day d

by lnsru 5y ago

My granny was a statistician during Soviet times. She knows a lot about food supply chain on Europe. It didn’t change a lot during last decades. Now every day during our daily call she talks about bread and coming starvation. As article mentions wheat an fertilizers come from this conflict area. If Europe will not stop a war in Ukraine in coming 2-3 weeks… then doubling energy prices will look like a funny joke. There will be no bread and everything related in European supermarkets for a long time. Sounds really apocalyptic and sadly it is.

NotOscarWilde 5y ago
> If Europe will not stop a war in Ukraine in coming 2-3 weeks As a European (living in Poland), I have to take offense to your phrasing. How is it our war to stop? There is one big country that can stop this war, and it is not called "Europe". Everyone here in Central/Eastern Europe is trying to mitigate the damages, with donations, hospitality, volunteering. Of course, the possibility of a peace treaty being signed also remains, and there is a long debate whether this would be good for Ukraine, good for Europe as a whole, etc., but yet again -- this is not "Europe" that will sign it.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- vorpalhex 5y ago
  Europe may starve if you don't. Not all duties are moral. Some are merely practical.
  - Kim_Bruning 5y ago
    Most of the EU will probably weather it just fine; some of the neighbors not so much. I think declaring war on Russia would have started to look fairly tempting by now, except for the fact that Russia is a nuclear power. Perhaps some sort of red-lining might yet be possible. ("Ok, ok, you've had your fun. We frankly don't care what your actual problem is, but this needs to be over before planting season. And no contaminating the soil either. Figure it out or else"). Before you do that though, you have to figure how much pain you're willing to tolerate before you take that risk-of-nuclear-apocalypse; just because a nuclear state leader is being stupid. I don't envy the people who need to make that particular call. :-/
  - dageshi 5y ago
    Europe for the most part can afford more expensive food, it's other parts of the world that will suffer as the prices get bid up.
    - jelliclesfarm 5y ago
      Western Europe is very reliant on food imports. It comes from India and China. The Dutch grow glasshouse produce. Pig meat and oil are the main agricultural items. Spain is the one of the main regions growing and exporting. But that’s mostly tomatoes. A lot of production has moved to Morocco and Tunisia. Especially olives(disease in Italy) also: Italian canned San Marzano tomato sauce? Grown and canned in China. Labeled in Italy. Europe will starve. When America and Europe threaten sanctions upon countries like India, it’s laughable. And illiterate. And also hypocritical considering Germany has bought over billions of dollars of oil from Russia since the conflict began. Europe does not have food self sufficiency.
      - dageshi 5y ago
        I'm not sure what your point is exactly? Yes I know europe imports food, if prices rise europe will still import food (although it may import less), it'll just pay more for it and it can afford to. It won't be a cakewalk but western europe won't starve.
        jelliclesfarm 5y ago
        Modern Ag is converting fossil fuels to calories. With sanctions, everything will be disrupted. Supply chain and logistics will affect everything from feed to fuel.
      - KptMarchewa 5y ago
        China has way, way bigger food trade deficit than EU.
        jelliclesfarm 5y ago
        It’s not about trade deficits but about calories for citizens and crop land foot print+productivity
  - gambiting 5y ago
    Yes, but how exactly. Poland especially is already looking after 1M+ refugees, what else can they do.
- lelanthran 5y ago
  > There is one big country that can stop this war, and it is not called "Europe". Which country are you talking about?
  - shagmin 5y ago
    I'm guessing Russia.
    - generalizations 5y ago
      Or Ukraine.
      - jokoon 5y ago
        what exactly do you want Ukraine to do to stop the war?
        generalizations 5y ago
        Not 'want'. Why would you assume that? But it seems obvious that Ukraine capitulating would end the war. (Unless it's morally reprehensible for me to even suggest that the good guys might lose. /s) This is what I guess is going on: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30723869 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30723869
        TheCoelacanth 5y ago
        I don't think that's obvious at all. Ukrainians don't want to be part of Russia and Ukraine can't make every single Ukrainian stop fighting. Ukraine capitulating would turn it from a war of state against state into a war of occupier against occupied people.
        generalizations 5y ago
        Fair enough. There's definitely an insurgency. I guess the question is if there's enough of one to sustain the guerilla warfare despite both sides wanting an end, and one of those sides wanting an end in order to feed the populace.
- lnsru 5y ago
  Cześć! My initial thought would be humanitarian air lift operation to Ukraine. While closing space for Russian aircrafts. Will Putin Launch nukes immediately afterwards? It’s a good question. Will putin stop after taking Kraków? Or does he need Warszawa? It’s another very good question.
  - kkfx 5y ago
    IMVHO are very wrong questions, like aiming at flame pinnacles instead of the base: why "putin" invade Ukraine? Perhaps because since 2014 (and so probably years before) USA formed and armed nazi militias there? Oh, of course putin is a dictator not much different than nazi, but of course he want to protect his territory. Do remember a thing since WWII end there was Yalta agreements, violated from day zero by NATO with the air bridge to Berlin, with proposed ops like "Operation Unthinkable" and "Operation Dropshot", with Solidarność etc and those activities are still very active around Russians borders. So how to stop the war? Well, arresting the "western puppets governments" in the eastern Europe playing the neutrality card as Finland, Sweden etc have done in the past. That immediately stop a war who advantage FAR more China, USA and UK than Russia or EU. Just try to study history and geopolitics a bit: China? They get a far more dependent Russia witch means far more cheap natural resources, far bigger hi-tech military gear, probably enough with the Chinese industrial system to being able to counter the USA in few years. For USA and UK? Their government are not hyper-contested anymore, they are not at the brink of a civil war anymore because of an outside war. Any move wanted for the Green New Deal, like skyrocketing oil and gas prices, is now justified and so on. Russia? The war is needed by them to secure their borders but it's costly. EU? Being against our own major supplier of natural resources is simply suicidal.
- tiahura 5y ago
  France could end the war if they really wanted to.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
sgt101 5y ago
The food supply in Europe has changed gigantically in recent decades. There are massive areas under glass, huge irrigation projects and challenges, and new shipping options (containers). The subsidy and production regimes have changed This is not to say that the food supply is secure.
- jelliclesfarm 5y ago
  You are right. More than half the world will be reliant for external food by way of imports. Ag imports is not always edible foods..as it includes produce, grains, fiber, fuel, meat, fish and dairy. West Europe’s food imports together far exceed USA. Figures as of 2017 : [..] The United States, being one of the world’s largest economies, imports a total of $133 billion USD worth of food and food products, followed by China at $105.26 billion USD, Germany at $98.90 billion USD, Japan at $68.86 billion USD, the United Kingdom at $66.54 billion USD, the Netherlands at $64.38 billion USD, France at $62.29 billion USD, Italy at $51.34 billion USD, Belgium at $40.87 billion USD, and the Russian Federation at $38.60 billion USD.[..]
  - KptMarchewa 5y ago
    The EU countries here include intra-EU imports. When looking at EU level, trade looks fairly balanced: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/trade/documents/monitoring-agri-food-trade_sept2019_en.pdf https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-f...
generalizations 5y ago
> If Europe will not stop a war in Ukraine in coming 2-3 weeks… then doubling energy prices will look like a funny joke. That's why I've been wondering if behind all this 'fog of war', Russia is planning to get what they want by creating a food shortage in Europe. Just toss a bunch of disposable soldiers and old equipment into the country, create chaos, and wait. Russia might survive the sanctions against it longer and better than Europe survives without Ukrainian wheat. It sure sounds like Europe has a lot less leverage than Putin and might have to capitulate just to keep their people fed.
- hypertele-Xii 5y ago
  "The main destination of Wheat exports from Ukraine are: Egypt ($685M), Indonesia ($603M), Philippines ($242M), Turkey ($207M), and Tunisia ($196M)." [1] None of these are European countries importing wheat from Ukraine. Most of my food imports come from Italy. I buy local also. Finland grows wheat, among other crops. Saw corn fields cycling cross country couple years back. [1] https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/ukr https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporte...
  - generalizations 5y ago
    My comment is based on what the parent said. > My granny was a statistician during Soviet times. She knows a lot about food supply chain on Europe. It didn’t change a lot during last decades. Now every day during our daily call she talks about bread and coming starvation. As article mentions wheat an fertilizers come from this conflict area.
crucialfelix 5y ago
Food supply chains are definitely something to examine. However Ukrainian wheat is exported to: Egypt ($685M), Indonesia ($603M), Philippines ($242M), Turkey ($207M), and Tunisia ($196M). I believe Pakistan and several African countries are also on the list. These countries are already aware and concerned. https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/ukr https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporte... EU grows its own wheat.
- crucialfelix 5y ago
  This article addresses the impact of the war very precisely: https://oec.world/en/blog/post/affects-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-on-global-food-access https://oec.world/en/blog/post/affects-of-russian-invasion-o...
Nasrudith 5y ago
For the Soviet Union certainly that pattern would hold. They were all about stupid levels of micromanagement and poorly attempted autarky while ignoring the value of trade and productivity increases beyonf mass factories. Frankly the concept of starvation for Europe sounds like another dumb apocalypse FUD meme put out by Putin that ignores reality. It is the same exact theme as the stupider "But Europe will somehow freeze to death in March!" played prior. It is part of the same pattern of gaslighting as an abuser "But you need, me babe!" combined with "Look what you made me do!". One who knows that he is losing. Petrochemistry is the default source of most fertilizers and Ukraine wasn't a rival to Russia in oil supply yet and there are plentiful ports in Europe. It doesn't even take any R&D cleverness to solve the alleged hypothetical problem.

by lnsru 5y ago

NotOscarWilde 5y ago

> If Europe will not stop a war in Ukraine in coming 2-3 weeks As a European (living in Poland), I have to take offense to your phrasing. How is it our war to stop? There is one big country that can stop this war, and it is not called "Europe". Everyone here in Central/Eastern Europe is trying to mitigate the damages, with donations, hospitality, volunteering. Of course, the possibility of a peace treaty being signed also remains, and there is a long debate whether this would be good for Ukraine, good for Europe as a whole, etc., but yet again -- this is not "Europe" that will sign it.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
vorpalhex 5y ago
Europe may starve if you don't. Not all duties are moral. Some are merely practical.
- Kim_Bruning 5y ago
  Most of the EU will probably weather it just fine; some of the neighbors not so much. I think declaring war on Russia would have started to look fairly tempting by now, except for the fact that Russia is a nuclear power. Perhaps some sort of red-lining might yet be possible. ("Ok, ok, you've had your fun. We frankly don't care what your actual problem is, but this needs to be over before planting season. And no contaminating the soil either. Figure it out or else"). Before you do that though, you have to figure how much pain you're willing to tolerate before you take that risk-of-nuclear-apocalypse; just because a nuclear state leader is being stupid. I don't envy the people who need to make that particular call. :-/
- dageshi 5y ago
  Europe for the most part can afford more expensive food, it's other parts of the world that will suffer as the prices get bid up.
  - jelliclesfarm 5y ago
    Western Europe is very reliant on food imports. It comes from India and China. The Dutch grow glasshouse produce. Pig meat and oil are the main agricultural items. Spain is the one of the main regions growing and exporting. But that’s mostly tomatoes. A lot of production has moved to Morocco and Tunisia. Especially olives(disease in Italy) also: Italian canned San Marzano tomato sauce? Grown and canned in China. Labeled in Italy. Europe will starve. When America and Europe threaten sanctions upon countries like India, it’s laughable. And illiterate. And also hypocritical considering Germany has bought over billions of dollars of oil from Russia since the conflict began. Europe does not have food self sufficiency.
    - dageshi 5y ago
      I'm not sure what your point is exactly? Yes I know europe imports food, if prices rise europe will still import food (although it may import less), it'll just pay more for it and it can afford to. It won't be a cakewalk but western europe won't starve.
      - jelliclesfarm 5y ago
        Modern Ag is converting fossil fuels to calories. With sanctions, everything will be disrupted. Supply chain and logistics will affect everything from feed to fuel.
    - KptMarchewa 5y ago
      China has way, way bigger food trade deficit than EU.
      - jelliclesfarm 5y ago
        It’s not about trade deficits but about calories for citizens and crop land foot print+productivity
- gambiting 5y ago
  Yes, but how exactly. Poland especially is already looking after 1M+ refugees, what else can they do.
lelanthran 5y ago
> There is one big country that can stop this war, and it is not called "Europe". Which country are you talking about?
- shagmin 5y ago
  I'm guessing Russia.
  - generalizations 5y ago
    Or Ukraine.
    - jokoon 5y ago
      what exactly do you want Ukraine to do to stop the war?
      - generalizations 5y ago
        Not 'want'. Why would you assume that? But it seems obvious that Ukraine capitulating would end the war. (Unless it's morally reprehensible for me to even suggest that the good guys might lose. /s) This is what I guess is going on: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30723869 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30723869
        TheCoelacanth 5y ago
        I don't think that's obvious at all. Ukrainians don't want to be part of Russia and Ukraine can't make every single Ukrainian stop fighting. Ukraine capitulating would turn it from a war of state against state into a war of occupier against occupied people.
        generalizations 5y ago
        Fair enough. There's definitely an insurgency. I guess the question is if there's enough of one to sustain the guerilla warfare despite both sides wanting an end, and one of those sides wanting an end in order to feed the populace.
lnsru 5y ago
Cześć! My initial thought would be humanitarian air lift operation to Ukraine. While closing space for Russian aircrafts. Will Putin Launch nukes immediately afterwards? It’s a good question. Will putin stop after taking Kraków? Or does he need Warszawa? It’s another very good question.
- kkfx 5y ago
  IMVHO are very wrong questions, like aiming at flame pinnacles instead of the base: why "putin" invade Ukraine? Perhaps because since 2014 (and so probably years before) USA formed and armed nazi militias there? Oh, of course putin is a dictator not much different than nazi, but of course he want to protect his territory. Do remember a thing since WWII end there was Yalta agreements, violated from day zero by NATO with the air bridge to Berlin, with proposed ops like "Operation Unthinkable" and "Operation Dropshot", with Solidarność etc and those activities are still very active around Russians borders. So how to stop the war? Well, arresting the "western puppets governments" in the eastern Europe playing the neutrality card as Finland, Sweden etc have done in the past. That immediately stop a war who advantage FAR more China, USA and UK than Russia or EU. Just try to study history and geopolitics a bit: China? They get a far more dependent Russia witch means far more cheap natural resources, far bigger hi-tech military gear, probably enough with the Chinese industrial system to being able to counter the USA in few years. For USA and UK? Their government are not hyper-contested anymore, they are not at the brink of a civil war anymore because of an outside war. Any move wanted for the Green New Deal, like skyrocketing oil and gas prices, is now justified and so on. Russia? The war is needed by them to secure their borders but it's costly. EU? Being against our own major supplier of natural resources is simply suicidal.
tiahura 5y ago
France could end the war if they really wanted to.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

sgt101 5y ago

The food supply in Europe has changed gigantically in recent decades. There are massive areas under glass, huge irrigation projects and challenges, and new shipping options (containers). The subsidy and production regimes have changed This is not to say that the food supply is secure.

jelliclesfarm 5y ago
You are right. More than half the world will be reliant for external food by way of imports. Ag imports is not always edible foods..as it includes produce, grains, fiber, fuel, meat, fish and dairy. West Europe’s food imports together far exceed USA. Figures as of 2017 : [..] The United States, being one of the world’s largest economies, imports a total of $133 billion USD worth of food and food products, followed by China at $105.26 billion USD, Germany at $98.90 billion USD, Japan at $68.86 billion USD, the United Kingdom at $66.54 billion USD, the Netherlands at $64.38 billion USD, France at $62.29 billion USD, Italy at $51.34 billion USD, Belgium at $40.87 billion USD, and the Russian Federation at $38.60 billion USD.[..]
- KptMarchewa 5y ago
  The EU countries here include intra-EU imports. When looking at EU level, trade looks fairly balanced: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/trade/documents/monitoring-agri-food-trade_sept2019_en.pdf https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-f...

generalizations 5y ago

> If Europe will not stop a war in Ukraine in coming 2-3 weeks… then doubling energy prices will look like a funny joke. That's why I've been wondering if behind all this 'fog of war', Russia is planning to get what they want by creating a food shortage in Europe. Just toss a bunch of disposable soldiers and old equipment into the country, create chaos, and wait. Russia might survive the sanctions against it longer and better than Europe survives without Ukrainian wheat. It sure sounds like Europe has a lot less leverage than Putin and might have to capitulate just to keep their people fed.

hypertele-Xii 5y ago
"The main destination of Wheat exports from Ukraine are: Egypt ($685M), Indonesia ($603M), Philippines ($242M), Turkey ($207M), and Tunisia ($196M)." [1] None of these are European countries importing wheat from Ukraine. Most of my food imports come from Italy. I buy local also. Finland grows wheat, among other crops. Saw corn fields cycling cross country couple years back. [1] https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/ukr https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporte...
- generalizations 5y ago
  My comment is based on what the parent said. > My granny was a statistician during Soviet times. She knows a lot about food supply chain on Europe. It didn’t change a lot during last decades. Now every day during our daily call she talks about bread and coming starvation. As article mentions wheat an fertilizers come from this conflict area.

crucialfelix 5y ago

Food supply chains are definitely something to examine. However Ukrainian wheat is exported to: Egypt ($685M), Indonesia ($603M), Philippines ($242M), Turkey ($207M), and Tunisia ($196M). I believe Pakistan and several African countries are also on the list. These countries are already aware and concerned. https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/ukr https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporte... EU grows its own wheat.

crucialfelix 5y ago
This article addresses the impact of the war very precisely: https://oec.world/en/blog/post/affects-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-on-global-food-access https://oec.world/en/blog/post/affects-of-russian-invasion-o...

Nasrudith 5y ago

For the Soviet Union certainly that pattern would hold. They were all about stupid levels of micromanagement and poorly attempted autarky while ignoring the value of trade and productivity increases beyonf mass factories. Frankly the concept of starvation for Europe sounds like another dumb apocalypse FUD meme put out by Putin that ignores reality. It is the same exact theme as the stupider "But Europe will somehow freeze to death in March!" played prior. It is part of the same pattern of gaslighting as an abuser "But you need, me babe!" combined with "Look what you made me do!". One who knows that he is losing. Petrochemistry is the default source of most fertilizers and Ukraine wasn't a rival to Russia in oil supply yet and there are plentiful ports in Europe. It doesn't even take any R&D cleverness to solve the alleged hypothetical problem.