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How to Prepare for a Recession
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- DeathArrow 5y agoIn short, they don't know anything but they advise you to be prepared.
- jimhefferon 5y agoIf he addressed the question, I missed it. (Yes, I read the whole article.) I get that thinking medium and long term, and ignoring the possibility of a six month recession, is sound advice. However, given the state of the world (for instance, with Russia bringing up nuclear weapons) there are perfectly reasonable people thinking it would be prudent to expect a not-routine financial hit. So it is at the least a very misleading headline.
- artemonster 5y agoCame here to write exactly this.
- throw0101a 5y ago> Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.” > The same is true of recessions. > How do you prepare for one? The same way you prepare your finances for anything else. > Instead of changing your portfolio because you think a recession is coming, create an investment plan that is durable enough to withstand a wide range of environments (one of which includes economic contractions). > Give yourself a margin of safety with a high savings rate and an emergency fund not because it will help you survive a recession but because it will help you survive any number of curveballs life will inevitably throw at you. > Pay your bills on time and create a good credit score not because it will help you during a recession but because it will help you anytime you need to borrow money.
- lupire 5y ago> > Give yourself a margin of safety with a high savings rate If everyone does this, it creates a recession. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift Better to purchase durable goods (save real value, not shared delusion of money) (edit: or shelf-stable consumables), and invest in future productive capacity (backyard farm, work on your health and strength and education).
- throw0101a 5y ago> If everyone does this, it creates a recession. If everyone suddenly switches from low-savings to high-savings, yes, that may happen. But if everyone consistently has a not-low savings rate, then that is the 'baseline' that the economy will base its production on. It's the sudden changes that can cause problems and not necessarily the/a steady state. Even sudden changes up can cause problems, as we've learn with supply chains when everyone switched from buying services (going out) to buying goods during the lockdown(s). Of course 'just save more' isn't an answer for some people, as the author's coworker observed: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-biggest-lie-in-personal-finance/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-biggest-lie-in-personal-fin...
- nicoburns 5y agoIf everybody has high-savings, then does anybody actually have high savings? As in, would it still be possible for everyone to redeem those savings for concrete goods and services?
- throw0101a 5y agoA savings rates (of a person's income) of 15% is higher than a savings rate of 5% is higher than a savings rate of 0%. Some of those savings goes to building an emergency fund (which eventually tops out), while other savings goes into a retirement account to generate for future income; some may go into a child's education fund. Eventually most people will retire and draw down their savings. Eventually one's child will grow old and go to some kind of post-secondary school and need money for tuition, books, etc.
- politelemon 5y agoIt's a couple of vague abstract sentences which will make sense to people who are financially savvy, but that specific target audience would already know this advice.
- SkipperCat 5y agoFrom my take on the article, I think you just can't think about such short term events like the impact of the Ukraine war. It's most probably going to be back to some type of status quo in one or two years, so making bets on it is more speculating than investing.
- alecco 5y agoBecause it's an ad.
- a1445c8b 5y agoTL;DR: (1) Maintain a good credit score, (2) Maintain an emergency fund enough for X months, (3) Invest some of your extra money.
- ed_balls 5y agoInvest, but where and how?
- lucidguppy 5y agohttps://reddit.com/r/bogleheads https://reddit.com/r/bogleheads
- newaccount2021 5y ago
- lupire 5y agoWeb4 multiswap Pluto (better than doge + moon) metacoins, of course.
- randomhodler84 5y agoBitcoin, born out of the 2008 recession as a way of opting out of the central bank lead boom-bust cycle.
- post_break 5y agoRight now it seems like expensive Lego sets are having a huge return. Everything else I've invested in has tanked.
- a1445c8b 5y agoThat’s a great question and will be your homework for this week. :-) On a more serious note, the answer really depends on your situation. I.e. what investment products are accessible to you and how much risk you can tolerate.
- fangorn 5y agoSo the advice here is to "stop trying to predict the future" and "make sure you have a resilient portfolio". That's as useful as saying "if you want to be smart, don't be stupid, simple!". Looks like marketing fillers are reaching new bottoms recently.
- rat_1234 5y agoKeeping your fixed costs meaningfully less than your non-variable compensation (i.e., RSUs) is the root of everything he said here. It's that simple.
- lupire 5y agoLess than the recession value of RSUs. They won't go to zero in a recession, unless your salary does too.
- SketchySeaBeast 5y agoDo you keep your RSU's if you lose your job? I think that's the real fear here.
- thebean11 5y agoUnvested RSUs? Of course not.
- SketchySeaBeast 5y agoThen that doesn't seem like a great recession hedge. I think the biggest immediate fear of a recession is losing your job, your investments should be available in that situation.
- thebean11 5y agoI think GP was saying you shouldn't take them into account, not that they are a good hedge.
- TekMol 5y agoI am surprised that during a recession, stocks usually tank. You can either own part of the industry that produces stuff. Or you can own money with which you can place bids on the stuff the industry produces. During a recession, the industry produces less. Now at first you might say: That is the answer. The industry produces less. So it has less value. But if the amount of money is the same, the bids per piece of stuff should go up. Because there is the same amount of money bidding on fewer things. So the industry should still make the same amount of money. Any easy answer to this, why stocks tank during recessions?
- lbotos 5y agoBecause people who are over leveraged need to sell their stock to live, so they sell at “any price”. For a stock price to fall someone has to sell, and someone has to buy, so someone is taking the long position in said company. Additionally, the stock price is the belief on future profits so if the horizon looks worse then the past, then people may want to shift investments.
- newah1 5y agoTo hoard liquid cash for buying opportunities. If the prices of commodities goes way up, individuals and companies need cash in hand more than the long term assets. Cash is king.
- imglorp 5y ago“markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.”
- pengstrom 5y agoI guess because the differences between the neoclassical homo economics and the biomachine homo sapiens become relevant when scared? The approximation of people as rational actors falls apart.
- CPLX 5y agoBecause stocks are just the right to a stream of earnings. In a recession companies earn less and the future becomes more uncertain. Because of the way the math works relatively small changes in future earnings and risk can have a large impact on asset sizes.
- throw0101a 5y agoThe folks at Ritholtz Wealth Management really produce quality content on the economy and personal finance: * https://awealthofcommonsense.com https://awealthofcommonsense.com * https://ofdollarsanddata.com https://ofdollarsanddata.com * https://theirrelevantinvestor.com https://theirrelevantinvestor.com * https://ritholtz.com https://ritholtz.com * https://www.youtube.com/c/TheCompoundRWM https://www.youtube.com/c/TheCompoundRWM Using the Internet to put out their brand and philosophy out there so like-minded customers come to them instead of trying to chase down leads. And everyone who doesn't need a wealth manager / family office gets interesting content.
- not_math 5y agoHow can he write: > Therefore, a recession is now inevitable. And two paragraphs below: > Nothing is 100% certain in the markets or the economy.
- sushibowl 5y agoJust above the bulleted list at the top of the article: > There seems to be a growing consensus among smart people I follow right now: i.e. the conclusion that a recession is inevitable is not the author's own, but just an argument coming from "smart people the author follows."
- post_break 5y ago60% of the time, it works every time.
- btbuildem 5y agoTLDR he's just talking about investments.
- piokoch 5y ago"The war is going to cause massive food shortages in the next year since so many agricultural commodities come from Ukraine and Russia." this argument alone makes this story laughable, it seems the poor sod who wrote this must have Google blocked, as it is very easy to check how much food Ukraine and Russia exports (in fact, Russia still has to import food). I was only waiting for another "argument" that China bought 50% of World supply of wheat, which was a bullshit spread my mainstream media. "Inflation was already high and is only going to get worse because of the war". Why? US, French, British military equipment is hot now, nobody buys from Russians anymore as we all see how great is their stuff. Typically after the wars we saw rapid economic development, not stagnation. In fact a little inflation will help, as there will be no more stupid ways of "investing" money (cryptocurrencies are only the most pathological resource, there were many others, less popularized) so maybe there will be time for some real investments not hoarding money only. "Supply shocks were already bad and are only going to get worse", what actually people were buying from Russia except oil and gas? What other Russian product you've bought in past 5, 10, 15 years? China is clearly staying away from all this "trouble" that Russian have, in fact, China learned a quick lesson about true power of USA and NATO and their determination to support a country, which is not even NATO member. China also learned how great is post-soviet era military equipment, which both China and Russia still use and base its power on this. All those "innovative" solutions like Russian SU-57, Armata T-14 tank sound so great and fearful, the problem is that they don't really exist, I suspect that China might have the same issue. Maybe that's why we haven't heard about any recent Chinese provocation near Taiwan. So, the question is, why so many bullshit in this article, as usually, the answer depends on what this guy is selling, and we learn this at the very end of the article: "I also had Bill Artzerounian on the show to answer questions about the benefits of working with a tax advisor and the tax implications of selling a huge loser in your portfolio."
- jka 5y agoAgricultural commodities include more than food exports. Fertilizer is an important factor to consider as well. Here's an example from 2021 where fertilizer shortages within North America caused an expectation of price increases: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertilizer-shortage-north-america-farmers-food-prices https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertiliz... And here is one of the most commonly-used chemical processes used to produce ammonia for fertilizer -- it often uses natural gas as an input: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process Food scarcity and food price increases could cause large amounts of human suffering. Despite any ongoing conflicts I think it should be a priority to maintain and improve food supply chains.
- giantg2 5y agoAggregate household wealth may not be a great indicator of economic health. Demand may be up for many things, but do people have the money to sustain their lifestyle with the price increases? Distribution matters. If the top people saw the bulk of the gains, it won't help much because they can't spend it all themselves (see recent comments by Melinda Gates, the Giving Pledge, etc). https://money.yahoo.com/pandemic-wealth-inequality-180311704.html https://money.yahoo.com/pandemic-wealth-inequality-180311704...
- alecco 5y agoThis is very bad and generic advice and it smells of just another a wealth manager advertisement. Junk. If you have a mortgage and it is below property price rates (most likely), keep it or refinance for lower rates if you can. If you buy with mortgage, don't get over leveraged. Even if the property doesn't lose value, if you fail to pay your mortgage the bank will fire-sell it for lower to recoup their money leaving you in the red. And beware of bills piling up with inflation! Buy the smallest possible you can afford in a recession. Now for savings. You can't compete with Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, the bots, professionals. But you can take the other side of the bet of very short-sighted investors. Just do plain old and boring Sector Rotation. Pick large and liquid ETFs and REITs. Pick them very diverse. https://www.investopedia.com/search?q=sector+rotation https://www.investopedia.com/search?q=sector+rotation https://www.investopedia.com/search?q=etfs+for+sector+rotation https://www.investopedia.com/search?q=etfs+for+sector+rotati... https://www.investopedia.com/search?q=recession+proof+investing https://www.investopedia.com/search?q=recession+proof+invest... Also mind there is likely a scenario of new and higher taxes, price controls, and a lot of other fun things to cover the upcoming Unfunded Liabilities Crisis, the Pension Crisis, public and private debt, etc. If you are above 500k, I'd start looking for a second passport and offshore accounts. Have plan B and C.
- mark_l_watson 5y agoMy wife and I used a web based inflation calculator to see how 10% inflation over ten years would effect the long term purchasing power of our retirement savings. A little scary, but it is good to plan long term how money can be saved by reducing expenses (for us, travel is a large expense) while still maintaining a good quality of life.
- kkfx 5y agoIMVHO every Citizen must do one single analysis in two questions: "do I think that those who led us to the recession can fix their mess?"; "who profit from that recession?". Answering those question it's enough to start going to the court asking for removal of actual neoliberals in power for a long tail of crimes, the first one for crime against humanity. Otherwise that means Gustave Le Bon and Eduard Bernays was right saying that most humans are just animals in a flock to be led. So Democracy is impossible and abusing human being for profit is a normal activity...
- engineer_22 5y agoAre you Russian?
- kkfx 5y agoItalian, living in France. But also nephew of Italian's Partisans from WWII, so I was "trained" to recognize the nazi when they do not dress formal uniforms...
- GoodJokes 5y ago