You didn't say if you're still above water. You won't likely owe any AMT if you close your position the same year that you exercise, though if it went down, you

You didn't say if you're still above water. You won't likely owe any AMT if you close your position the same year that you exercise, though if it went down, you'll be carrying that loss for a while. If you suspected they'd tank, there was really no reason to exercise early. If an IPO looks eminent, you should probably wait a few months to exercise to see how the market reacts. Exercising early is more interesting when you're leaving or if the company is a sure thing, the IPO is a few years out, and you're chasing long-term capital gains.