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When reading these posts, I want to believe that the Russian army will fail as much as anyone. But I am reminded of Knoll's Law, and moreover reminded that up u

When reading these posts, I want to believe that the Russian army will fail as much as anyone. But I am reminded of Knoll's Law, and moreover reminded that up until the moment Russia invaded, there were armchair "experts on Russia" and "experts on Putin" saying it was a bluff and guaranteeing there would be no invasion. Black swan for sure.

pkaye 5y ago
I wonder if they said the same when Russia invaded in 2014.
Enginerrrd 5y ago
Let us also note the utter lack of precision in this argument. The only date provided has to do with another round of conscripts on April 1st which is 17 days out. The author just makes a lot of hand-wavy arguments about various logistics issues Russia is possibly (or even likely) experiencing. That's not really solid grounds to make a specific 10-day prediction.
joe_the_user 5y ago
The many people who didn't believe the invasion would happen (myself included) expected that such an invasion would so disastrous for Russia that the Russian state would avoid it. So I think people saying no invasion might claim to be half right, since it so-far does appear to be a disaster for Russia. Reports now have Putin isolated and being fed misinformation, so the intelligence or coherence of the Russian state seems to be where the predictions failed.
- jansen555 5y ago
pmoriarty 5y ago
"up until the moment Russia invaded, there were armchair "experts on Russia" and "experts on Putin" saying it was a bluff and guaranteeing there would be no invasion" It wasn't just "armchair experts"... it was the Ukranian and Russian governments themselves saying that any reports that Russia was going to invade was just propaganda. Many Ukranians believed them, with surveys showing that most Ukranians didn't expect an invasion.. and the Ukranian government was saying it was "ready". Well, we now see how much those words were worth. Many of those Ukranians who believed there wasn't going to be an invasion have either now fled their homes, are desperately trying to, are dead, or soon will be as bombs, famine and disease overtake their besieged cities.
yks 5y ago
The most anticipated black swan, Ukraine literally threw an ad-hoc holiday on the initially planned invasion day.
wolverine876 5y ago
> there were armchair "experts on Russia" and "experts on Putin" saying it was a bluff and guaranteeing there would be no invasion I don't recall many guarantees, and actual experts are not at home in armchairs. The OP author is not an armchair expert, but a three-star general. It's not a black swan; many did predict an invasion, including the governmet of the United States - openly and repeatedly.

pkaye 5y ago

I wonder if they said the same when Russia invaded in 2014.

Enginerrrd 5y ago

Let us also note the utter lack of precision in this argument. The only date provided has to do with another round of conscripts on April 1st which is 17 days out. The author just makes a lot of hand-wavy arguments about various logistics issues Russia is possibly (or even likely) experiencing. That's not really solid grounds to make a specific 10-day prediction.

joe_the_user 5y ago

The many people who didn't believe the invasion would happen (myself included) expected that such an invasion would so disastrous for Russia that the Russian state would avoid it. So I think people saying no invasion might claim to be half right, since it so-far does appear to be a disaster for Russia. Reports now have Putin isolated and being fed misinformation, so the intelligence or coherence of the Russian state seems to be where the predictions failed.

jansen555 5y ago

pmoriarty 5y ago

"up until the moment Russia invaded, there were armchair "experts on Russia" and "experts on Putin" saying it was a bluff and guaranteeing there would be no invasion" It wasn't just "armchair experts"... it was the Ukranian and Russian governments themselves saying that any reports that Russia was going to invade was just propaganda. Many Ukranians believed them, with surveys showing that most Ukranians didn't expect an invasion.. and the Ukranian government was saying it was "ready". Well, we now see how much those words were worth. Many of those Ukranians who believed there wasn't going to be an invasion have either now fled their homes, are desperately trying to, are dead, or soon will be as bombs, famine and disease overtake their besieged cities.

yks 5y ago

The most anticipated black swan, Ukraine literally threw an ad-hoc holiday on the initially planned invasion day.

wolverine876 5y ago

> there were armchair "experts on Russia" and "experts on Putin" saying it was a bluff and guaranteeing there would be no invasion I don't recall many guarantees, and actual experts are not at home in armchairs. The OP author is not an armchair expert, but a three-star general. It's not a black swan; many did predict an invasion, including the governmet of the United States - openly and repeatedly.