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Yeah, I would agree with that. In my limited observational capacity as a Russian, I would also add that Western notions of Putin being toppled in a popular coup

Yeah, I would agree with that. In my limited observational capacity as a Russian, I would also add that Western notions of Putin being toppled in a popular coup are, while adorable, profoundly facile; the repressive capacity of an autocratic siloviki state is greatly underestimated in this fairy tale. You ain't seen _nothin_ yet.

alephxyz 5y ago
I agree that's there's no chance of a popular coup anytime soon. Russian intelligence services were able to influence the results of the US election just by buying Facebook ads, leaking hacked DNC emails to WikiLeaks and funding a few extremist voices. Now imagine what they could do by controlling every single media outlet in a country for the two decades Putin has been in power.
- nradov 5y ago
  How many Electoral College votes did the Russian intelligence services change in the US election?
  - dmead 5y ago
    In Philadelphia, there was a trump rally organized on the east side of city hall before the 2016 election. Turned out it was organized entirely in Facebook ads and groups paid for by proxies of the fsb. So, to answer your question 20. In my community it was potentially 20 electoral votes.
    - djrogers 5y ago
      So you’re saying enough people to swing 20 electors, who weren’t already planning to vote for Trump, went to a Trump rally organized by Russian proxies, and were convinced to vote for him because of this rally? That sounds… Unlikely.
    - WillPostForFood 5y ago
      There’s no evidence that the rallies scheduled in October 2016 for Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Allentown, Wilkes-Barre, and Erie ever took place. There were no permit applications filed for the day of the Philly rally, either. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/mueller-report-miners-for-trump-philadelphia-russia-photo-20190423.html https://www.inquirer.com/politics/mueller-report-miners-for-... Russia through 100k in facebook ads, and got the typical results, nothing much. Even if they were the best FB ad optimizers in the world how much impact is 100k in an election where the spending was estimated at $2.65 billion dollars? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016s-price-tag-6-8-billion/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016s-price-tag-6-8-bi...
      - dmead 5y ago
        okay, so i'll just relay that to the south philly rubes that told me they went. /shrug.
PeterisP 5y ago
Whenever I have seen the analysts making hypothesis about a possible coup in Russia, it always was not a popular coup but a 'palace coup' or one orchestrated by some part of siloviki. Popular protests can prevent the state from taking some action, but a full coup seems unlikely, as you state.
- abalashov 5y ago
  Of the two possibilities, it's certainly more likely -- in strictly relative terms. But Western media seems to put a lot of stock in 'people power'. In this particular case, it's misplaced.
  - BlueTemplar 5y ago
    Is it ? Putin until now had managed to carefully play the Russian opinion to be mostly favorable to him, and I just don't see how this can possibly continue once the reality of what is currently happening in Ukraine to their friends and family filters through the propaganda. His own glorification of WW2 over the last decades is going to play against him here, as the pictures of bombed cities are going to raise immediate associations putting in question just who are the real "Nazis" here. This leaves the repressive option... but this would require levels of repression not seen since Stalin, and we're living in a completely different mediatic landscape. No way that this doesn't end up in a revolution. Nor I believe that attempts of going full North Korea with almost completely cut off media and communications would be accepted by the population, or even feasible in practice. The only thing going for Putin is the indiscriminate nature of economic sanctions, strengthening his "the West wants to destroy Russia" line.
    - frenchy 5y ago
      Nazi Germany didn't fall to a coup (though at least one was tried).
      - BlueTemplar 5y ago
        And Hitler didn't raze Austria.

alephxyz 5y ago

I agree that's there's no chance of a popular coup anytime soon. Russian intelligence services were able to influence the results of the US election just by buying Facebook ads, leaking hacked DNC emails to WikiLeaks and funding a few extremist voices. Now imagine what they could do by controlling every single media outlet in a country for the two decades Putin has been in power.

nradov 5y ago
How many Electoral College votes did the Russian intelligence services change in the US election?
- dmead 5y ago
  In Philadelphia, there was a trump rally organized on the east side of city hall before the 2016 election. Turned out it was organized entirely in Facebook ads and groups paid for by proxies of the fsb. So, to answer your question 20. In my community it was potentially 20 electoral votes.
  - djrogers 5y ago
    So you’re saying enough people to swing 20 electors, who weren’t already planning to vote for Trump, went to a Trump rally organized by Russian proxies, and were convinced to vote for him because of this rally? That sounds… Unlikely.
  - WillPostForFood 5y ago
    There’s no evidence that the rallies scheduled in October 2016 for Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Allentown, Wilkes-Barre, and Erie ever took place. There were no permit applications filed for the day of the Philly rally, either. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/mueller-report-miners-for-trump-philadelphia-russia-photo-20190423.html https://www.inquirer.com/politics/mueller-report-miners-for-... Russia through 100k in facebook ads, and got the typical results, nothing much. Even if they were the best FB ad optimizers in the world how much impact is 100k in an election where the spending was estimated at $2.65 billion dollars? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016s-price-tag-6-8-billion/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016s-price-tag-6-8-bi...
    - dmead 5y ago
      okay, so i'll just relay that to the south philly rubes that told me they went. /shrug.

PeterisP 5y ago

Whenever I have seen the analysts making hypothesis about a possible coup in Russia, it always was not a popular coup but a 'palace coup' or one orchestrated by some part of siloviki. Popular protests can prevent the state from taking some action, but a full coup seems unlikely, as you state.

abalashov 5y ago
Of the two possibilities, it's certainly more likely -- in strictly relative terms. But Western media seems to put a lot of stock in 'people power'. In this particular case, it's misplaced.
- BlueTemplar 5y ago
  Is it ? Putin until now had managed to carefully play the Russian opinion to be mostly favorable to him, and I just don't see how this can possibly continue once the reality of what is currently happening in Ukraine to their friends and family filters through the propaganda. His own glorification of WW2 over the last decades is going to play against him here, as the pictures of bombed cities are going to raise immediate associations putting in question just who are the real "Nazis" here. This leaves the repressive option... but this would require levels of repression not seen since Stalin, and we're living in a completely different mediatic landscape. No way that this doesn't end up in a revolution. Nor I believe that attempts of going full North Korea with almost completely cut off media and communications would be accepted by the population, or even feasible in practice. The only thing going for Putin is the indiscriminate nature of economic sanctions, strengthening his "the West wants to destroy Russia" line.
  - frenchy 5y ago
    Nazi Germany didn't fall to a coup (though at least one was tried).
    - BlueTemplar 5y ago
      And Hitler didn't raze Austria.