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Do we need to replace all the fossil fuels from Russia? Conservation, electrification, etc. LNG from the US 100 million barrels of oil globally can’t be reduc

Do we need to replace all the fossil fuels from Russia? Conservation, electrification, etc. LNG from the US 100 million barrels of oil globally can’t be reduced to 95 million? Coal generated electricity from Poland? Horrible but necessary

twofornone 5y ago
Overnight? Not a chance.
- runarberg 5y ago
  Spring is here, Europe has reserves... if there is ever a good time for a continental energy crisis, it is now. Weighing an energy crisis in Europe against a prolonged war in Ukraine I think most europeans will agree with me that the energy crisis is the preferred option.
  - Sebb767 5y ago
    > Spring is here, Europe has reserves... We actually don't have a lot of reserves due to a mix of pissing of Russians (at mid/end '21) and massive speculation. > Weighing an energy crisis in Europe against a prolonged war in Ukraine I think most europeans will agree with me that the energy crisis is the preferred option. Lower class people and even lower middle class people are already hurting. I can handle a surprise increase in heating costs and a jump in gas prices, but people who need to drive to work daily aren't that lucky (and, to make matters worse, the government just reduced the home office incentives in Germany). Once prices hit serious peaks (doubling and up) or actual supply issues appear, support will fade very quickly,even in the privileged classes.
    - runarberg 5y ago
      Europeans really don’t want war on their continent. There are options which the governments can employ. Governments can offer free public transit, they can mandate remote work, they can mandate worker pick-ups for large workplaces, etc. There are a lot of inefficiencies in Europe’s energy uses, and during an energy crisis these inefficiencies will have to be tackled no matter the cost. And Europe does have the money to pay for these. Will it be inconvenient? Yes. Will it be devastating, probably not nearly as devastating as the war in Ukraine. I stand by what I said. Europe really doesn’t want this war, and I bet most people are willing to suffer an energy crisis with the hope that it will stop earlier. And if governments fail to offer remedies during the energy crisis, it is on them and they will suffer in the polls.
      - chii 5y ago
        > I bet most people are willing to suffer an energy crisis with the hope that it will stop earlier. and yet, the war is not really contingent on people suffering this energy crisis - it's merely a possibility. Putin can still wage the war and the only true response europe can have is to wage war in return. War in response to putin will be even harder to swallow after the people have suffered a year of energy rationing i reckon. When your house is cold and food scarce, the people in europe is more likely to be willing to accept appeasement.
        beachy 5y ago
        Appeasement. The very word conjures up images of brave resistance. Maybe I'm older but I imagine that Europeans have strong cultural memory of just how bad a strategy appeasing dictators is. Putting up with pain at the gas pump is different to having your children conscripted and sent to die in a far off frozen land.
        BlueTemplar 5y ago
        There is no such thing as "war in return", only global nuclear annihilation - if war in return was a possibility, EU armies would already be engaging Russia in Ukraine.
        Isinlor 5y ago
        There is "war in return". It is far from certain that Putin is willing to start nuclear war. In my view, it is unlikely that he would use nuclear weapons. And if he is willing to use them he will use them because he is loosing in Ukraine, without regard as to why is he loosing in Ukraine.
    - youngtaff 5y ago
      Biggest thing everyone can do on a personal level right now is get more energy efficient to reduce demand For example we saw a significant drop in electricity consumption when we moved from CFL to LED bulbs Not everyone can afford efficiency measures so governments will need to subsidise them - particularly in the UK where the housing stock needs huge improvements (though that depends on a Conservative government doing the right thing) Industrial energy consumption is another challenge though
  - PKop 5y ago
    How does killing your economy stop the war in Ukraine?
    - runarberg 5y ago
      By hurting the economy of the aggressor even more.
      - abalashov 5y ago
        It's important to see that there's no real near-distance endgame ("off ramp") for Putin politically; he's in a position from which he cannot retreat. That makes an economic bet quite a bold one. If Russia's polity were that sensitive to economic fluctuations, the war would have most likely never got started...
        FeepingCreature 5y ago
        If we are to care that Putin has no off-ramp, we would be incentivizing destroying your own off-ramps. As Putin arguably has done.
        Epa095 5y ago
        There is no off ramp for Putin, but getting rid of him is an off ramp for everyone else. The question is if there are still structures in Russia able to do that.
      - goatlover 5y ago
        Which is an assumption that devastating the Russian economy will either force Putin to withdraw or result in his removal from power. Biden told US reporters that we have to wait a month to see whether sanctions were working, because there's no guarantee it will have the desired effect on Moscow.
bluGill 5y ago
If we had 10 years warning and a slow drop off. Most uses of oil can't actually swtich to anything else without expensive rebuilding ' If conservation gets you anywhere why weren't you doing it before? There is a lot of room for insulation that was already cost effective at last years prices, so I doubt those who could do it will.
- melling 5y ago
  Oil usage during Covid dropped significantly. This article says 20% https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/moving-mountains-covid-19-and-peak-oil-demand https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/movin... And we only need to cut 5-10% globally
  - Sebb767 5y ago
    So we only need half of what we saved when states went into complete lockdown and travel basically ceased existing? That's not a very positive outlook.
    - melling 5y ago
      Not really, you went with one extreme of what I said, which was 5%-10% so anywhere from 25% to 50%. Even getting consumption down 5% would be helpful. Other countries can increase output.
  - antisthenes 5y ago
    That's very selective reading. Here's what the article says: > The unprecedented collapse in worldwide mobility as a result of lockdowns and travel restrictions in March and April 2020 slashed oil demand by over 20 million b/d, or 20% of total demand. So the 20% drop was temporary, during the most strict lockdown months. Extrapolating that to longer-term periods is obviously a mistake. > We expect about 75% or 6.3 million b/d of demand to come back in 2021 So the demand would be down by 5% (25% of 20%), YOY. No predictions as to how much it could come back in 2022. The graph a little bit further down the article predicts oil demand to keep going up at least until 2035, and 2040 for all oil products.

twofornone 5y ago

Overnight? Not a chance.

runarberg 5y ago
Spring is here, Europe has reserves... if there is ever a good time for a continental energy crisis, it is now. Weighing an energy crisis in Europe against a prolonged war in Ukraine I think most europeans will agree with me that the energy crisis is the preferred option.
- Sebb767 5y ago
  > Spring is here, Europe has reserves... We actually don't have a lot of reserves due to a mix of pissing of Russians (at mid/end '21) and massive speculation. > Weighing an energy crisis in Europe against a prolonged war in Ukraine I think most europeans will agree with me that the energy crisis is the preferred option. Lower class people and even lower middle class people are already hurting. I can handle a surprise increase in heating costs and a jump in gas prices, but people who need to drive to work daily aren't that lucky (and, to make matters worse, the government just reduced the home office incentives in Germany). Once prices hit serious peaks (doubling and up) or actual supply issues appear, support will fade very quickly,even in the privileged classes.
  - runarberg 5y ago
    Europeans really don’t want war on their continent. There are options which the governments can employ. Governments can offer free public transit, they can mandate remote work, they can mandate worker pick-ups for large workplaces, etc. There are a lot of inefficiencies in Europe’s energy uses, and during an energy crisis these inefficiencies will have to be tackled no matter the cost. And Europe does have the money to pay for these. Will it be inconvenient? Yes. Will it be devastating, probably not nearly as devastating as the war in Ukraine. I stand by what I said. Europe really doesn’t want this war, and I bet most people are willing to suffer an energy crisis with the hope that it will stop earlier. And if governments fail to offer remedies during the energy crisis, it is on them and they will suffer in the polls.
    - chii 5y ago
      > I bet most people are willing to suffer an energy crisis with the hope that it will stop earlier. and yet, the war is not really contingent on people suffering this energy crisis - it's merely a possibility. Putin can still wage the war and the only true response europe can have is to wage war in return. War in response to putin will be even harder to swallow after the people have suffered a year of energy rationing i reckon. When your house is cold and food scarce, the people in europe is more likely to be willing to accept appeasement.
      - beachy 5y ago
        Appeasement. The very word conjures up images of brave resistance. Maybe I'm older but I imagine that Europeans have strong cultural memory of just how bad a strategy appeasing dictators is. Putting up with pain at the gas pump is different to having your children conscripted and sent to die in a far off frozen land.
      - BlueTemplar 5y ago
        There is no such thing as "war in return", only global nuclear annihilation - if war in return was a possibility, EU armies would already be engaging Russia in Ukraine.
        Isinlor 5y ago
        There is "war in return". It is far from certain that Putin is willing to start nuclear war. In my view, it is unlikely that he would use nuclear weapons. And if he is willing to use them he will use them because he is loosing in Ukraine, without regard as to why is he loosing in Ukraine.
  - youngtaff 5y ago
    Biggest thing everyone can do on a personal level right now is get more energy efficient to reduce demand For example we saw a significant drop in electricity consumption when we moved from CFL to LED bulbs Not everyone can afford efficiency measures so governments will need to subsidise them - particularly in the UK where the housing stock needs huge improvements (though that depends on a Conservative government doing the right thing) Industrial energy consumption is another challenge though
- PKop 5y ago
  How does killing your economy stop the war in Ukraine?
  - runarberg 5y ago
    By hurting the economy of the aggressor even more.
    - abalashov 5y ago
      It's important to see that there's no real near-distance endgame ("off ramp") for Putin politically; he's in a position from which he cannot retreat. That makes an economic bet quite a bold one. If Russia's polity were that sensitive to economic fluctuations, the war would have most likely never got started...
      - FeepingCreature 5y ago
        If we are to care that Putin has no off-ramp, we would be incentivizing destroying your own off-ramps. As Putin arguably has done.
      - Epa095 5y ago
        There is no off ramp for Putin, but getting rid of him is an off ramp for everyone else. The question is if there are still structures in Russia able to do that.
    - goatlover 5y ago
      Which is an assumption that devastating the Russian economy will either force Putin to withdraw or result in his removal from power. Biden told US reporters that we have to wait a month to see whether sanctions were working, because there's no guarantee it will have the desired effect on Moscow.

bluGill 5y ago

If we had 10 years warning and a slow drop off. Most uses of oil can't actually swtich to anything else without expensive rebuilding ' If conservation gets you anywhere why weren't you doing it before? There is a lot of room for insulation that was already cost effective at last years prices, so I doubt those who could do it will.

melling 5y ago
Oil usage during Covid dropped significantly. This article says 20% https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/moving-mountains-covid-19-and-peak-oil-demand https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/movin... And we only need to cut 5-10% globally
- Sebb767 5y ago
  So we only need half of what we saved when states went into complete lockdown and travel basically ceased existing? That's not a very positive outlook.
  - melling 5y ago
    Not really, you went with one extreme of what I said, which was 5%-10% so anywhere from 25% to 50%. Even getting consumption down 5% would be helpful. Other countries can increase output.
- antisthenes 5y ago
  That's very selective reading. Here's what the article says: > The unprecedented collapse in worldwide mobility as a result of lockdowns and travel restrictions in March and April 2020 slashed oil demand by over 20 million b/d, or 20% of total demand. So the 20% drop was temporary, during the most strict lockdown months. Extrapolating that to longer-term periods is obviously a mistake. > We expect about 75% or 6.3 million b/d of demand to come back in 2021 So the demand would be down by 5% (25% of 20%), YOY. No predictions as to how much it could come back in 2022. The graph a little bit further down the article predicts oil demand to keep going up at least until 2035, and 2040 for all oil products.