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Oil and gas are used to make fertilizer, fertilizer is needed to create the massive crop yields we expect. Like for wheat, when the norhtern hemisphere harvests
by downrightmike 5y ago
Oil and gas are used to make fertilizer, fertilizer is needed to create the massive crop yields we expect. Like for wheat, when the norhtern hemisphere harvests in the fall, they have six months of reserves on top of that to cover demand. For corn and soybeans, it is usually just 60 days, And the Sothern hemisphere is harvesting now. brazil and argentina both do soybeans really well, so there is always some production somewhere. We really don't have to worry about 2022 from a production standpoint, but a logistics one. Port of LA pre covid, 90% of ships were on time, now only 10% and there is a backlog. Which means bottle neck. So we can't move food where it needs to be, so that should increase reserves being held. 2023 will be a problem if we can't get enough fertilizer or have a very bad rainy season. But no one in exporting countries should have an issue getting food, other than it will be more expensive. Alternatives will be needed for sure in net importers, and likely in the exporters too, because they will always feed themselves first. And as an example, the USA companies have to get permission to sell large amounts of grain to foreign buyers. So that is a possible action too.
- hinkley 5y ago> brazil and argentina both do soybeans really well Where is Brazil growing that soy? In their vast and ample prairies? (hint: the answer to the second question is 'no') > So we can't move food where it needs to be, so that should increase reserves being held. This parallels a problem we have in cluster management - if load increases and you spin up new servers as a response (increasing capacity), then depending on how those servers work they might actually increase load while trying to spool up. You then have to be careful you don't create a feedback loop where spinning up servers triggers spinning up more servers. If you can't get food into the ports, then stockpiling it means bringing more food in through those same ports. Which makes getting food (and other supplies) slower, which means you increase your stockpiles, which means more shipments having trouble getting into port... Often the right answer is to raise the low water mark, which means that the status quo is maintained until the next lull, when you hold on to some of your excess capacity instead of letting it go, and to refine your boundary conditions to react a little bit sooner, and/or a little less aggressively (ie, do less but do it sooner).
- downrightmike 5y agoBrazil soybean production map: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Bra... They cut down rainforest for soybeans and cattle. Which McD and burger king buy from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/17/leading-burger-supplier-sourced-from-amazon-farmer-guilty-of-deforestation https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/17/leading-...
- brabel 5y ago> Where is Brazil growing that soy? https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Produ%C3%A7%C3%A3o_de_soja_no_Brasil#/media/Ficheiro:Agro_PR_Soja_em_Guarapuava.jpg https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Produ%C3%A7%C3%A3o_de_soja_no_... https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Produ%C3%A7%C3%A3o_de_soja_no_Brasil#/media/Ficheiro:Soja_exportacao.jpg https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Produ%C3%A7%C3%A3o_de_soja_no_...
- marcosdumay 5y ago> hint: the answer to the second question is 'no' Of course it's 'no'. It is mostly produced on the savanna and semi-arid areas.
- simulate-me 5y agoOil and gas are used to make hydrogen which is used to make fertilizer, but it’s possible to get hydrogen without oil.
- all2 5y ago> Port of LA pre covid, 90% of ships were on time, now only 10% and there is a backlog. Where can I find this information?