5 ms·

If it was anywhere close to being commercially feasible, you'd first see it in oil/gas futures. Money will know long before you or I or any news outlets will kn

by qiskit 5y ago

If it was anywhere close to being commercially feasible, you'd first see it in oil/gas futures. Money will know long before you or I or any news outlets will know.

onethought 5y ago
I’m not sure that is true. GM isn’t a penny stock when it should be, and Neo or Xpeng should be bigger, and they are not. Sometimes money wants to deny the future that is coming.
- liketochill 5y ago
  Clearly the market disagrees with you. I’ve never heard of neo or xpeng and GM has a long history of manufacturing vehicles to North American safety standards. Whatever neo or xpeng do is GM incapable of hiring some engineers (they might already have some) to copy it and then build it in their existing factories?
  - onethought 5y ago
    No, GM are incapable of doing it. For a whole bunch of reasons: - ICE factories can't just be switched to be EV factories, so having an existing ICE factory is a burden not a benefit. - They don't have capacity to build batteries - Even if they did, they don't have the raw materials - Even if they did, they don't have the raw materials processing capacity - Even if they did start securing the capacity now i.e. Building Lithium mines, battery factories, EV car factories etc. By the time they come online... GM will have run out of money, because no one will be buying their cars anymore, but they'll still be paying for ICE factories/workforce/etc. Xpeng and Neo are kind of Tesla clones, but they have home ground advantage in that they are Chinese based which is where the majority of the EV market is right now, it's also where all the battery supply is. You haven't heard of them, because they haven't entered the US market yet.
    - liketochill 5y ago
      So GE is doomed because their strategy is to buy battery cells instead of manufacturing them themselves? There are a lot more parts in a vehicle than the cells.
      - onethought 5y ago
        There aren’t any cells to buy. And no, there is no way to make an EV without a battery. GM don’t have a strategy, it’s clear they are just hoping for a miracle. Hence: Penny stock. The market agrees with me (look at the growth rate of EV sales globally). The stock market disagrees with me… but it’s clearly irrational… again look at the growth rate of EVs.
zizee 5y ago
This doesn't sound right to me. How many years out do oil/gas futures project? Even if someone from the future arrived today with blueprints of a perfect fusion power plant design, it would take many years to build up enough fusion power plants to make a dent in the world's oil/gas consumption. You'd not only need to switch over power plants, but replace every car, truck, house, ship, smelter, xxxx to use electricity.
- lazide 5y ago
  The poster is saying the stakes in oil/gas are high enough that someone IS already paying millions of dollars to have dedicated staff follow projects and give people a heads up if anyone seems actually close (or it seems remotely feasible) - and you'd see it reflected in various market moves, either by hedge funds or by the companies themselves in how they invest on projects. Which is probably true. I've heard from friends of some of the typical shenanigans played among state actors involving oil and gas, and that would be the least underhanded thing going on.
  - zizee 5y ago
    I understand what they are saying. I am saying that the timeframe between a breakthrough in fusion, and it having a measurable effect on energy usage is so large that "money" will not reflect it with immediate and large moves in the market.
    - lazide 5y ago
      Then you don’t understand what they’re saying? ‘Breakthroughs’ like fusion typically does are useless. Something viable is not. When something viable happens, you’ll see markets move, because market pricing is based on expectations of future performance, not current performance.
      - zizee 5y ago
        The comment I was responding to was specifically talking about oil and gas futures. Not general stock prices, or which projects are started. My non-expert understanding is that Futures are a specific financial instrument with set expiry dates, and are about locking in prices for these commodities at a certain date. The vast majority of these would be expiring in under low digit years. I am arguing that the ramp up time for fusion to go from "feasible design" to "having a significant impact on the the amount of oil/gas consumed" is much longer than most futures expiry dates, and would therefore have little impact. That said, I guess people can (and do) buy futures with expiry dates for more than 10 years out, presumably they just have to find a counter party. Is this a significant amount invested? Bringing me back around to my original (and honestly asked) question: How many years out do oil/gas futures project?
apendleton 5y ago
Oil and gas are investing in fusion startups, so maybe it already does. Equinor and Eni have both invested in CFS, Chevron has invested in Zap, and Cenovus has invested in General Fusion.

by qiskit 5y ago

If it was anywhere close to being commercially feasible, you'd first see it in oil/gas futures. Money will know long before you or I or any news outlets will know.

onethought 5y ago

I’m not sure that is true. GM isn’t a penny stock when it should be, and Neo or Xpeng should be bigger, and they are not. Sometimes money wants to deny the future that is coming.

liketochill 5y ago
Clearly the market disagrees with you. I’ve never heard of neo or xpeng and GM has a long history of manufacturing vehicles to North American safety standards. Whatever neo or xpeng do is GM incapable of hiring some engineers (they might already have some) to copy it and then build it in their existing factories?
- onethought 5y ago
  No, GM are incapable of doing it. For a whole bunch of reasons: - ICE factories can't just be switched to be EV factories, so having an existing ICE factory is a burden not a benefit. - They don't have capacity to build batteries - Even if they did, they don't have the raw materials - Even if they did, they don't have the raw materials processing capacity - Even if they did start securing the capacity now i.e. Building Lithium mines, battery factories, EV car factories etc. By the time they come online... GM will have run out of money, because no one will be buying their cars anymore, but they'll still be paying for ICE factories/workforce/etc. Xpeng and Neo are kind of Tesla clones, but they have home ground advantage in that they are Chinese based which is where the majority of the EV market is right now, it's also where all the battery supply is. You haven't heard of them, because they haven't entered the US market yet.
  - liketochill 5y ago
    So GE is doomed because their strategy is to buy battery cells instead of manufacturing them themselves? There are a lot more parts in a vehicle than the cells.
    - onethought 5y ago
      There aren’t any cells to buy. And no, there is no way to make an EV without a battery. GM don’t have a strategy, it’s clear they are just hoping for a miracle. Hence: Penny stock. The market agrees with me (look at the growth rate of EV sales globally). The stock market disagrees with me… but it’s clearly irrational… again look at the growth rate of EVs.

zizee 5y ago

This doesn't sound right to me. How many years out do oil/gas futures project? Even if someone from the future arrived today with blueprints of a perfect fusion power plant design, it would take many years to build up enough fusion power plants to make a dent in the world's oil/gas consumption. You'd not only need to switch over power plants, but replace every car, truck, house, ship, smelter, xxxx to use electricity.

lazide 5y ago
The poster is saying the stakes in oil/gas are high enough that someone IS already paying millions of dollars to have dedicated staff follow projects and give people a heads up if anyone seems actually close (or it seems remotely feasible) - and you'd see it reflected in various market moves, either by hedge funds or by the companies themselves in how they invest on projects. Which is probably true. I've heard from friends of some of the typical shenanigans played among state actors involving oil and gas, and that would be the least underhanded thing going on.
- zizee 5y ago
  I understand what they are saying. I am saying that the timeframe between a breakthrough in fusion, and it having a measurable effect on energy usage is so large that "money" will not reflect it with immediate and large moves in the market.
  - lazide 5y ago
    Then you don’t understand what they’re saying? ‘Breakthroughs’ like fusion typically does are useless. Something viable is not. When something viable happens, you’ll see markets move, because market pricing is based on expectations of future performance, not current performance.
    - zizee 5y ago
      The comment I was responding to was specifically talking about oil and gas futures. Not general stock prices, or which projects are started. My non-expert understanding is that Futures are a specific financial instrument with set expiry dates, and are about locking in prices for these commodities at a certain date. The vast majority of these would be expiring in under low digit years. I am arguing that the ramp up time for fusion to go from "feasible design" to "having a significant impact on the the amount of oil/gas consumed" is much longer than most futures expiry dates, and would therefore have little impact. That said, I guess people can (and do) buy futures with expiry dates for more than 10 years out, presumably they just have to find a counter party. Is this a significant amount invested? Bringing me back around to my original (and honestly asked) question: How many years out do oil/gas futures project?

apendleton 5y ago

Oil and gas are investing in fusion startups, so maybe it already does. Equinor and Eni have both invested in CFS, Chevron has invested in Zap, and Cenovus has invested in General Fusion.