5 ms·

I agree with the blunder part but only if he ends up failing to control ukraine. So long as he succeeds there, the russian people will lose big time but Putin w

by _8j50 5y ago

I agree with the blunder part but only if he ends up failing to control ukraine. So long as he succeeds there, the russian people will lose big time but Putin will do just fine. But if he loses, I don't think he will leave peacefully but he will leave.

beebmam 5y ago
Without full extermination of Ukrainians, I'm having a hard time believing Russia will be able to control it.
- _8j50 5y ago
  I think the problem is morale for russia. If they have it, they can annex ukraine like the USSR days. Chechnya fought very hard like ukraine.
  - mopsi 5y ago
    The morale is such that Russia imprisons people who call this a war and any reporting other than rehashing official PR statements is banned, all independent media has been shut down. In official statements, there's only a limited "special operation" against "Neo-Nazi drug addicts" in Ukraine and it's going well, while on the ground everything's falling apart and in some sectors they've deployed rear troops that shoot their own soldiers if they attempt to retreat. Some POWs have even described how their units executed own wounded soldiers to avoid having to deal with treating them. All in all, thousands of Russian service members have died, but Russian representatives refuse to collect bodies from Ukrainian authorities for proper burial. Relatives are kept in the dark. Many will receive a letter months from now saying that their father/husband/son died in undefined military exercise. Those relatives who speak up get a visit from security service intimidating them into shutting up. It's a total nightmare. There'd be a violent revolution the next day if Russian TV showed truth for one evening: orthodox churches burning, entire towns razed to ground, kids getting limbs blown off from cluster munitions dropped onto residential areas, all kinds of unimaginable suffering. The scale of this is such that there's no way to conceal truth for an extended period of time. It will lead to implosion of Russian society just like the Afghan war did in the 1980s.
    - freeopinion 5y ago
      The truth is readily available in Russia. But just like everywhere else, truth and lies are rejected or embraced regardless of how flimsy or strong they are. Human bias and other psychology can be astounding.
      - mopsi 5y ago
        The scary thing is that there's no TV or radio channel to tune to or a newspaper to buy that would offer an alternative, truthful take. Even foreign press suspended activities in Russia after the March 4th law that made independent reporting punishable by up to 15 years in prison. Determined people may seek out independent online sources if they can digest that everything they've been told is a lie, but that's an insignificant fraction of the whole population and their activism is mercilessly crushed by security services. The critical majority remains unaware of what the whole world has seen on front pages for the past several weeks and instead lives in a parallel reality where the widely reported bombing of Mariupol's hospital didn't happen, or if it did, they were all Nazis and crisis actors. It's Alex Jones and InfoWars adopted as state religion. Insane.
        freeopinion 5y ago
        The U.S. has a nominally free press. There is a wide spectrum. But you will find a significant population that believes Jan 6 was fake. And you will find some who believe it was jovial tailgaters responding to a personal invitation from the President. People often believe what they want to believe. Repression of the press is not helpful. But it isn't hard to find the truth in Russia. You can find whatever truth you want to find.
    - foverzar 5y ago
      Yeah, most of this is untrue, you're read too much CNN
  - kcb 5y ago
    Remember Chechnya and Grozny are a fraction of the scale that is Ukraine and its major cities.
- tartoran 5y ago
  They may pound the poor Ukrainians for months to come to some sort of despair and depression if the war continues that long but I agree that they’ll never fully control the Ukrainians without full destruction. The built up resentiment is hard to dissipate especially now after the war started. I hope either that the Russians withdraw without a very bruised ego so they leave poor Ukrainians alone to rebuild their country or that they simply collapse altogether and start afresh without Putin. Would like to live to see Putin condemned and perhaps imprisoned or executed by his own people, that would completely vindicate the Russian people in my eyes but I very much doubt that.
tartoran 5y ago
Putin may as well consolide his power further should anyone express thier disatisfaction with him. Im talking about the power hierarchy he’s sitting atop of, not just the Russian populace who already have some significant percentace of dissatisfaction - the real number is unknown since voting is heavily rigged and manipulated and the electorate is heavily manipulated by obvious propaganda.
- AuthorizedCust 5y ago
  He’s already consolidated it so much that those reporting to him seem to be mere yes-men. “Take over Ukraine!” “Yes!” But nothing (?) about 1. very hard, 2. unprepared military, 3. external risks.
xiphias2 5y ago
Putin is already one of the richest and most powerful people in the world. If it was not enough for him, nothing will be.
TillE 5y ago
I don't really know anything about his personal goals - he's an old man who will probably be dead in around 10 years. But it's difficult to see how even a successful conquest of Ukraine is a positive result. Russia would have gained some territory of minimal value at the cost of crushing sanctions. There's no rational benefit, it's just the bizarre thinking that a physical buffer between Moscow and NATO is somehow helpful in a world with thousands of ICBMs.
- aeternum 5y ago
  There really should not be a rational benefit, perhaps only a symbolic benefit (not letting an enemy alliance set up camp on your doorstep). On the flip side, it's ridiculous that the US and NATO leaders are willing to risk nuclear war over something symbolic with miniscule strategic value. If WW3 is started over something as foolish as this when all we had to say was 'Ukraine will never join NATO'. In a way it is hypercritical to say Russia is overreacting when the US was extremely close to escalating to all-out war over the missiles in Cuba.
  - timeon 5y ago
    The problem is that Ukraine was not able to join NATO and is invaded anyway.
    - aeternum 5y ago
      Ukraine joining NATO has been in the works for over a decade now and it is already closely involved with and cooperating with NATO including joint military drills. It's done everything short of being an official member: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Applying_for_Ukraine_to_join_the_NATO_Membership_Action_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...
      - orwin 5y ago
        It couldn't join NATO until the war against Donetsk and the Dombass were over anyway. That mean recognition that this region seceded. Doesn't matter the formation/joint training, it wasn't legally possible for Ukraine to join.
sofixa 5y ago
There's absolutely no way Russia could occupy Ukraine for a prolonged period of time. Ukrainian morale and national unity are very high, and as was seen time and again ( Spain against Napoleon, Afghanistan against everyone, Yugoslav partisans against the Nazis) a determined population is impossible to control by a foreign occupier regardless of its strength.
- throw_5202 5y ago
  There a way, unfortunately. Putin: 1. has no regard for human lives (including lives of Russian citizens) 2. is great admirer of Joseph Stalin. His current plan likely: 1. destroy Ukrainian military and establish control over all major cities, roads and borders (russian losses to achieve this goal is no-brainier for him) 2. starve population (repeat Holodomor [1]) 3. sent millions to prison camps. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

by _8j50 5y ago

beebmam 5y ago

Without full extermination of Ukrainians, I'm having a hard time believing Russia will be able to control it.

_8j50 5y ago
I think the problem is morale for russia. If they have it, they can annex ukraine like the USSR days. Chechnya fought very hard like ukraine.
- mopsi 5y ago
  The morale is such that Russia imprisons people who call this a war and any reporting other than rehashing official PR statements is banned, all independent media has been shut down. In official statements, there's only a limited "special operation" against "Neo-Nazi drug addicts" in Ukraine and it's going well, while on the ground everything's falling apart and in some sectors they've deployed rear troops that shoot their own soldiers if they attempt to retreat. Some POWs have even described how their units executed own wounded soldiers to avoid having to deal with treating them. All in all, thousands of Russian service members have died, but Russian representatives refuse to collect bodies from Ukrainian authorities for proper burial. Relatives are kept in the dark. Many will receive a letter months from now saying that their father/husband/son died in undefined military exercise. Those relatives who speak up get a visit from security service intimidating them into shutting up. It's a total nightmare. There'd be a violent revolution the next day if Russian TV showed truth for one evening: orthodox churches burning, entire towns razed to ground, kids getting limbs blown off from cluster munitions dropped onto residential areas, all kinds of unimaginable suffering. The scale of this is such that there's no way to conceal truth for an extended period of time. It will lead to implosion of Russian society just like the Afghan war did in the 1980s.
  - freeopinion 5y ago
    The truth is readily available in Russia. But just like everywhere else, truth and lies are rejected or embraced regardless of how flimsy or strong they are. Human bias and other psychology can be astounding.
    - mopsi 5y ago
      The scary thing is that there's no TV or radio channel to tune to or a newspaper to buy that would offer an alternative, truthful take. Even foreign press suspended activities in Russia after the March 4th law that made independent reporting punishable by up to 15 years in prison. Determined people may seek out independent online sources if they can digest that everything they've been told is a lie, but that's an insignificant fraction of the whole population and their activism is mercilessly crushed by security services. The critical majority remains unaware of what the whole world has seen on front pages for the past several weeks and instead lives in a parallel reality where the widely reported bombing of Mariupol's hospital didn't happen, or if it did, they were all Nazis and crisis actors. It's Alex Jones and InfoWars adopted as state religion. Insane.
      - freeopinion 5y ago
        The U.S. has a nominally free press. There is a wide spectrum. But you will find a significant population that believes Jan 6 was fake. And you will find some who believe it was jovial tailgaters responding to a personal invitation from the President. People often believe what they want to believe. Repression of the press is not helpful. But it isn't hard to find the truth in Russia. You can find whatever truth you want to find.
  - foverzar 5y ago
    Yeah, most of this is untrue, you're read too much CNN
- kcb 5y ago
  Remember Chechnya and Grozny are a fraction of the scale that is Ukraine and its major cities.
tartoran 5y ago
They may pound the poor Ukrainians for months to come to some sort of despair and depression if the war continues that long but I agree that they’ll never fully control the Ukrainians without full destruction. The built up resentiment is hard to dissipate especially now after the war started. I hope either that the Russians withdraw without a very bruised ego so they leave poor Ukrainians alone to rebuild their country or that they simply collapse altogether and start afresh without Putin. Would like to live to see Putin condemned and perhaps imprisoned or executed by his own people, that would completely vindicate the Russian people in my eyes but I very much doubt that.

tartoran 5y ago

Putin may as well consolide his power further should anyone express thier disatisfaction with him. Im talking about the power hierarchy he’s sitting atop of, not just the Russian populace who already have some significant percentace of dissatisfaction - the real number is unknown since voting is heavily rigged and manipulated and the electorate is heavily manipulated by obvious propaganda.

AuthorizedCust 5y ago
He’s already consolidated it so much that those reporting to him seem to be mere yes-men. “Take over Ukraine!” “Yes!” But nothing (?) about 1. very hard, 2. unprepared military, 3. external risks.

xiphias2 5y ago

Putin is already one of the richest and most powerful people in the world. If it was not enough for him, nothing will be.

TillE 5y ago

I don't really know anything about his personal goals - he's an old man who will probably be dead in around 10 years. But it's difficult to see how even a successful conquest of Ukraine is a positive result. Russia would have gained some territory of minimal value at the cost of crushing sanctions. There's no rational benefit, it's just the bizarre thinking that a physical buffer between Moscow and NATO is somehow helpful in a world with thousands of ICBMs.

aeternum 5y ago
There really should not be a rational benefit, perhaps only a symbolic benefit (not letting an enemy alliance set up camp on your doorstep). On the flip side, it's ridiculous that the US and NATO leaders are willing to risk nuclear war over something symbolic with miniscule strategic value. If WW3 is started over something as foolish as this when all we had to say was 'Ukraine will never join NATO'. In a way it is hypercritical to say Russia is overreacting when the US was extremely close to escalating to all-out war over the missiles in Cuba.
- timeon 5y ago
  The problem is that Ukraine was not able to join NATO and is invaded anyway.
  - aeternum 5y ago
    Ukraine joining NATO has been in the works for over a decade now and it is already closely involved with and cooperating with NATO including joint military drills. It's done everything short of being an official member: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Applying_for_Ukraine_to_join_the_NATO_Membership_Action_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...
    - orwin 5y ago
      It couldn't join NATO until the war against Donetsk and the Dombass were over anyway. That mean recognition that this region seceded. Doesn't matter the formation/joint training, it wasn't legally possible for Ukraine to join.

sofixa 5y ago

There's absolutely no way Russia could occupy Ukraine for a prolonged period of time. Ukrainian morale and national unity are very high, and as was seen time and again ( Spain against Napoleon, Afghanistan against everyone, Yugoslav partisans against the Nazis) a determined population is impossible to control by a foreign occupier regardless of its strength.

throw_5202 5y ago
There a way, unfortunately. Putin: 1. has no regard for human lives (including lives of Russian citizens) 2. is great admirer of Joseph Stalin. His current plan likely: 1. destroy Ukrainian military and establish control over all major cities, roads and borders (russian losses to achieve this goal is no-brainier for him) 2. starve population (repeat Holodomor [1]) 3. sent millions to prison camps. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor