4 ms·

This is politics in its finest. China will not be able to handle the rise in fossil fuel prices and will perhaps be the country to ask Russia to stop it's inva

This is politics in its finest. China will not be able to handle the rise in fossil fuel prices and will perhaps be the country to ask Russia to stop it's invasion of Ukraine because it hurts China too much because of this. USA wants this. It's not something that had just happened. This is a coordinated effort based on good intelligence work. Imo. Xi Jinping is also running for election soon and is under massive internal pressure. So he has to act. Not sure where this will leave Russia but they will be the one who lose because the pressure from the outside is to much. But sanctions will likely continue and Russia will be doomed.

onetokeoverthe 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
bryanlarsen 5y ago
China is buying Russian oil at a significant discount. Since such a huge portion of the cost of goods is embodied energy, this gives them a huge advantage.
- matthewdgreen 5y ago
  Yes, but what will China do with the goods it manufactures? If they have the internal demand to consume them, that's good. If their plan is to sell exports to Western nations then they need to be strategic. TFA is about sanctions being extended to Chinese firms that invest in Russian energy firms, but one could imagine a spiral where the sanctions expand to other Chinese firms that produce manufactured goods ("embodied energy") as well. We're not there yet, but it is a possibility.
  - deutschew 5y ago
    It will raise the cost of goods to the point which will be forced upon the consumer which will not be able to afford it. Already unemployment is rising rapidly in China as is inflation, when Chinese people find they can no longer afford a roof or basic foods, they will have nothing to lose. This is what Xi fears, death of domestic demand.
- deutschew 5y ago
  For now ;) or as the old proverb goes: Бесплатный сыр только в мышеловке
  - hackerfromthefu 5y ago
    Google translate from russian shows: Free mouse only in mouse. Perhaps someone could kindly offer a non-marsupial translation?
    - vl 5y ago
      Cheese is free only in mousetrap.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - blinding-streak 5y ago
        What a great saying. Gonna remember this.
        deutschew 5y ago
        or "there is no free lunch" but I like the Russian one better. It's really fascinating to see the differences in how two cultures express essentially the same idea.
    - huhtenberg 5y ago
      Try https://deepl.com https://deepl.com instead.
trasz 5y ago
For China, Russian oil price goes down, because Russia got no other buyers. And even before war Russia was selling that oil at loss. The more they sell to China, the better to the west.
- FpUser 5y ago
  Or Russia could just say this is a price and either swallow it or fuck off. Oil price is already high and due to West not buying it from Russia competition increases. So China can either pay exorbitant prices to compete with the western buyers or just take some reasonable price from Russia. Win win for either. The West of course can get mad and start sanctioning China but nobody can really predict how / when / if this is going to play.
deutschew 5y ago
Putin promised Xi the war in Ukraine would be over very quickly but what has transpired is that China is part of the blowback against Russia as a result of knowing beforehand that Putin would invade Russia. The US now has every excuse to coerce China, from everything ranging to Taiwan, trade issues. In large, Putin's war with Ukraine ended up raising fossil, food prices which puts real pressure on Xi's regime. I do not think Russia has the same level of worry as China because it has endless amount of oil and food that China does not. If China is suddenly no longer allowed to import these from other countries, it would be forced to trade with Russia under Putin's terms. The last time we did this to a country, they launched a war instead of waiting for the inevitable internal collapse. All of this is creating an uncertain and volatile future. TLDR: Putin's war and looming US sanctions against China will cause a volatile reaction.
- adventured 5y ago
  Russia's primary problem is going to be the instability that comes out of the reveal that Putin is a typical incompetent authoritarian and Russia's military is weak (and there's nothing they can do about it, clearly, or the past decade of 'modernization' and spending would have). To the extent Russia has had some limited stability under Putin, it has been built on the image of Putin's competency as a command & control operator of the Russian state and Russia's supposed potent military strength in particular - the projection of strength generally, all the fake imagery the propaganda machine has dished out regarding Putin over two decades. Naturally, as it turns out, the truth is closer to the opposite. It always seemed a distinct aberration that Russia would manage to somehow maintain a competent, potent, relatively well-organized military while everything else was so subpar and rotting. Everything makes sense again, their military looks like the rest of the nation. The knives will come out for Putin now that everybody knows he's weak and fragile. His recent moves to punish powerful internal figures will force him to go even further. Being likely paranoid as dictators commonly are, Putin will likely do as much damage to Russia's internal functioning as sanctions do from the outside to its economy. Putin is likely to elevate the fascism to the point where their system stops functioning much at all, including their domestic economy. Purges, gulags, genocide, things typical of later stage statist regimes, it's all on the table if Putin's intention is to retain his present power. Putin only has two choices: give it up, or kill lots of people to try to fend off the sharks that will inevitably come for him and challenge his position. The considerable, fake image of strength was previously making it largely unnecessary to go as far as most dictators do to retain control, that luxury will now vanish and it'll dramatically damage Russia. People fleeing Russia are making the right choice, get out while you can.

onetokeoverthe 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

bryanlarsen 5y ago

China is buying Russian oil at a significant discount. Since such a huge portion of the cost of goods is embodied energy, this gives them a huge advantage.

matthewdgreen 5y ago
Yes, but what will China do with the goods it manufactures? If they have the internal demand to consume them, that's good. If their plan is to sell exports to Western nations then they need to be strategic. TFA is about sanctions being extended to Chinese firms that invest in Russian energy firms, but one could imagine a spiral where the sanctions expand to other Chinese firms that produce manufactured goods ("embodied energy") as well. We're not there yet, but it is a possibility.
- deutschew 5y ago
  It will raise the cost of goods to the point which will be forced upon the consumer which will not be able to afford it. Already unemployment is rising rapidly in China as is inflation, when Chinese people find they can no longer afford a roof or basic foods, they will have nothing to lose. This is what Xi fears, death of domestic demand.
deutschew 5y ago
For now ;) or as the old proverb goes: Бесплатный сыр только в мышеловке
- hackerfromthefu 5y ago
  Google translate from russian shows: Free mouse only in mouse. Perhaps someone could kindly offer a non-marsupial translation?
  - vl 5y ago
    Cheese is free only in mousetrap.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - blinding-streak 5y ago
      What a great saying. Gonna remember this.
      - deutschew 5y ago
        or "there is no free lunch" but I like the Russian one better. It's really fascinating to see the differences in how two cultures express essentially the same idea.
  - huhtenberg 5y ago
    Try https://deepl.com https://deepl.com instead.

trasz 5y ago

For China, Russian oil price goes down, because Russia got no other buyers. And even before war Russia was selling that oil at loss. The more they sell to China, the better to the west.

FpUser 5y ago
Or Russia could just say this is a price and either swallow it or fuck off. Oil price is already high and due to West not buying it from Russia competition increases. So China can either pay exorbitant prices to compete with the western buyers or just take some reasonable price from Russia. Win win for either. The West of course can get mad and start sanctioning China but nobody can really predict how / when / if this is going to play.

deutschew 5y ago

Putin promised Xi the war in Ukraine would be over very quickly but what has transpired is that China is part of the blowback against Russia as a result of knowing beforehand that Putin would invade Russia. The US now has every excuse to coerce China, from everything ranging to Taiwan, trade issues. In large, Putin's war with Ukraine ended up raising fossil, food prices which puts real pressure on Xi's regime. I do not think Russia has the same level of worry as China because it has endless amount of oil and food that China does not. If China is suddenly no longer allowed to import these from other countries, it would be forced to trade with Russia under Putin's terms. The last time we did this to a country, they launched a war instead of waiting for the inevitable internal collapse. All of this is creating an uncertain and volatile future. TLDR: Putin's war and looming US sanctions against China will cause a volatile reaction.

adventured 5y ago
Russia's primary problem is going to be the instability that comes out of the reveal that Putin is a typical incompetent authoritarian and Russia's military is weak (and there's nothing they can do about it, clearly, or the past decade of 'modernization' and spending would have). To the extent Russia has had some limited stability under Putin, it has been built on the image of Putin's competency as a command & control operator of the Russian state and Russia's supposed potent military strength in particular - the projection of strength generally, all the fake imagery the propaganda machine has dished out regarding Putin over two decades. Naturally, as it turns out, the truth is closer to the opposite. It always seemed a distinct aberration that Russia would manage to somehow maintain a competent, potent, relatively well-organized military while everything else was so subpar and rotting. Everything makes sense again, their military looks like the rest of the nation. The knives will come out for Putin now that everybody knows he's weak and fragile. His recent moves to punish powerful internal figures will force him to go even further. Being likely paranoid as dictators commonly are, Putin will likely do as much damage to Russia's internal functioning as sanctions do from the outside to its economy. Putin is likely to elevate the fascism to the point where their system stops functioning much at all, including their domestic economy. Purges, gulags, genocide, things typical of later stage statist regimes, it's all on the table if Putin's intention is to retain his present power. Putin only has two choices: give it up, or kill lots of people to try to fend off the sharks that will inevitably come for him and challenge his position. The considerable, fake image of strength was previously making it largely unnecessary to go as far as most dictators do to retain control, that luxury will now vanish and it'll dramatically damage Russia. People fleeing Russia are making the right choice, get out while you can.