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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
- ss108 5y agolol fukuyama I don't begrudge someone for being wrong; anyone doing anything worthwhile is going to be wrong and make errors sometimes. But I get the impression that this guy just wants to act like his garbage "end of history" thing never happened.
- phtrivier 5y agoSince we can just make fuzzy predictions and not face any consequence, let's go ! 1. The Russian military (aided if needed by mercenaries) is bringing entire cities to the ground in the south of Ukraine, and just buying times before leveling substantial parts of Kyiv. Source : the news. Painting that as a "military defeat in the making for Russia" is just insane propaganda. 2. There is a perfectly "acceptable" diplomatic compromise, where Ukraine is split into roughly east/west of the river, buffer puppet states protect Russian border, and Ukraine is free to join EU - except Ukraine does not have all the eastern mines anymore, and is basically another poor country that northern Europe is going to refuse people from. The compromise is "acceptable" by everyone except Ukrainian gouvernement, of course - but it's astonishing what having the rest of the world urge you to bail (before the winter gets cold) can do. 3. Putin will stay in power as long as his health and / or close guard of oligarchs permits. As long as gas and oil remains sold to EU, he only has to fear about the former - which we know nothing about, and I'm tired of hearing people speculate about. 4. Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen dropped a couple points in the poll - thankfully for them, the elections are in an eternity of four weeks, so this will not prevent one of them to be on the 2nd round. None of them is planning on winning anyway (baring a last minute scandal for the president), financially getting their 15% each will ensure the success of their campaigns - so business is going fairly according to plan. 5. I think I vaguely remember this author of the post saying things about the end of history after the wall fell - so as assume we could both be wrong in the end, right ?
- zozbot234 5y agoLeveling cities into rubble does not necessarily help the attacker, see Stalingrad. It hurts civilians of course, but not necessarily military defense. The thing is that modern urban warfare is so favorable to defense that the attacker has little other choice - it's rolling the dice and nothing more. West Ukraine is not even all that poor, they have a legacy of good institutions as part of the European West and their human capital has a lot of potential. Like many middle-income countries (including Russia itself) they're hobbled by bad policy, but joining the EU would encourage them to fix this.
- KineticLensman 5y ago> Leveling cities into rubble does not necessarily help the attacker, see Stalingrad. Yes. It wasn't a city, but when the Allies bombed the Italian hillside monastery of Monte Cassino [0] in 1944, it left a pile of rubble that the Germans managed to hold for another three months. If you don't rubbleise a city, they are horrendous to assault. Most battle tanks (western and Russian) can't elevate their main guns high enough to take out attackers in a nearby multi-story towerblock (the 'urban canyon'), some military comms systems and GPS lose signals, defenders can use subways to transit, etc etc. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Monte_Cassino https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Monte_Cassino
- ch4s3 5y agoTo point 1, the rubbling of cities will make for much more dangerous block to block urban combat. Experts seem to think you need good supply lines and a 6 to 1 numerical advantage to win in urban guerrilla combat as the attacker. The 2nd Chechen war was ~15 years ago, the Russians have no real experience doing this. That’s why they’re recruiting Syrians. The Ukrainian defenders were trained by NATO based on urban combat doctrine developed in Fallujah and Syria. The Ukrainians could feasibly bleed the Russians until they’re out of combat ready units. Ultimately it’s going to be a slow rolling atrocity, and there’s no way to know what next week will look like.
- petermcneeley 5y ago#5 Fukuyama is almost certainly wrong or at best he is too early with his prediction "What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama#The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama#The_End_of_Hi...
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- syrrim 5y ago> The compromise is "acceptable" by everyone except Ukrainian government, of course It's acceptable to everyone except the people actually hurt by it. A common problem.
- bob66 5y ago
- rayiner 5y agoThe populists win the French election no matter who wins. The left has collapsed completely, and Macron is sounding pretty right wing attacking wokeness and defending western values versus Islam.
- phtrivier 5y agoMacron is definitely more right-wing than might have been expected five years ago. That being said, even with the largest possible definition of "populist", he hardly qualifies. The most likely outcome of this election round (president + assembly) is a macron presidency with an "official" right-wing coalition of macron's party with the most "centrist" part of the right wing. Very run of the mill stuff. And populists keeping their job as "yelling from the side". Then again, "eternity of one month".
- rayiner 5y agoI’m not saying he’s a populist, I’m saying that the populists have scored a significant victory by pushing him to the right on cultural issues even if he ultimately wins reelection.
- zozbot234 5y agoMilitant secularism is not a right wing position in France. It's very much part of the shared zeitgeist. This is the country that once had a "Cult of the Reason Goddess" as their state religion, and their modern über-secular laïcité is not very different.
- rayiner 5y agoThe secularism isn’t right wing, but he’s also had strong words against American progressive ideology: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/france-threat-american-universities.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/france-threa...
- BlueTemplar 5y ago
- pphysch 5y agoOn 2, the diplomatic option has been on the table since the civil war started in 2014 (Minsk agreements). However, it is critical to understand that it is not merely "the Ukrainians" (i.e. the current Zelensky-Klitschko-Pinchuk oligarchy) that are opposed to it, it is also Washington. After all, the latter spent billions of dollars and decades of effort tearing down the Budapest Memo, and they weren't going to easily return to that status quo. This is also blindingly obvious in the fact that the Overton window here in USA ranges from "no fly zone! WW3! Hoo-rah!" to "we will merely arm the Ukrainian civilians with Javelins" -- surrender and life-saving compromise isn't even on the table. What would the Kagans get out of that?!
- hkpack 5y agoThere never was a civil war in Ukraine. In 2014 - that was still Russian forces both in Crimea and in eastern part of Ukraine. Russia got sanctioned since 2014 exactly for that.
- pphysch 5y agoWow. 14,000 Ukrainians have been killed by Ukrainians since 2014 in the Donbass region. Heavy weaponry involved. If that is not a civil war, what is it?
- mopsi 5y ago> If that is not a civil war, what is it? Russian invasion of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. Ironically, since most people living there are Russians, it's Russians killing Russians in Ukraine in the name of Putin's delusions.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- atlantas 5y ago> The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. Thankful for this, cooler heads prevailed. Despite relentless pressure coming from the news media and twitter demanding that we escalate.
- srvmshr 5y agoAnother counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasion-stalled https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides unfortunately.
- draw_down 5y ago
- ch4s3 5y agoEven supporting the Ukrainian side, it’s clear that they’re taking heavy losses and doubly so on the civilian side. What I think people are correctly surprised by is how well the Ukrainians are utilizing NATO training an arms, and how badly the Russians are performing.
- frozencell 5y agoWe don’t have a cryptographic proof on each statistics both sides news give us.
- pavlov 5y agoHow would that even work? Do you expect dying soldiers to bravely sign "I am dead" blockchain transactions with their private keys?
- prepend 5y agoSadly, there’s no money in speculating on proof of life, real-time blockchains. I remember in the 90s when we were thinking about notification schemes to prove we were still alive and would post daily keepalive posts to show we were still alive. That wasn’t much fun so we didn’t keep doing it for long.
- Overtonwindow 5y agoFor a while I was pushing the no-fly zone as well, until I read this article. I'm surprised Russia would be heading for an outright defeat, and if true they've marshaled the bulk of Russian forces in this conflict, I have to wonder what the rest of the defense position looks like for Russia? For example, if China were to, say, start rolling across Siberia, besides moving the mother of all bowel movements, there's absolutely no way in my mind Russia could stop a complete Chinese defeat. In fact, if China did invade Russia, they could do so to "stop a raving mad man" and I dare say be cheered on by many in the west. China could...almost redeem a piece of itself. That would start a nuclear war, however, because Putin would simply press the button..but it's fodder for thought how China could play a role.
- zozbot234 5y ago> For a while I was pushing the no-fly zone as well Enforcing a "no fly zone" means that NATO would have to get involved in order to gain air supremacy, potentially supported by boots on the ground . It would be the Libyan playbook, which hasn't worked all that well for NATO.
- purple_ferret 5y agoPutin is doing everything he can to avoid conscription, which would put Russia's view of the war in more precarious situation He's even trying to recruit African mercenaries: https://twitter.com/_IntelMA_/status/1502262997099724802 https://twitter.com/_IntelMA_/status/1502262997099724802
- popularonion 5y agoChina would do far more damage to Russia just by putting on trade sanctions, rather than marching around Russian Far East territories where literally nobody lives.
- pbourke 5y agoWhy would China ever do that when they can have Russia as a client state at zero military cost? China can merely incorporate a weakened Russia into its belt-and-road neo-colonial strategy.
- 5y ago
- slim 5y agothis guy is a fortune teller. the nerve he has is incredible. still predicting the future from a future he predicted would never exist in his book "the end of history"
- civilized 5y agoSounds like this pop view of Fukuyama is inaccurate https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/history-restarts?s=r https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/history-restarts?s=r Most people have a meme-level understanding of him and no idea what he has really said. This is relevant today as the pile-on of negative comments on his credibility are based on this meme-level understanding.
- nickpinkston 5y agoYea, that was my first thought too. Now I'm expecting him to write: "The End of the End of the End of History".
- disk0 5y ago"The End of the End of History"[0] is a thing, so it's only a matter of time now for his response /s [0]: https://bungacast.com/book/ https://bungacast.com/book/
- nickpinkston 5y agoYea, I this is what I was referencing - thanks!
- jeffreyrogers 5y agoHe pretty much says the opposite of what everyone claims he said in that book. People who've never read the book read the title and assume they know what his argument is.
- slim 5y agooh, that's interesting. I read the book. although I was young and I did not finish it because it was dreadfully propagandist. i remember I got the feeling the book was written by a committee under the pseudonymous fukuyama. so maybe the conclusion of the book is reasonable and that's what you are referring to. i'm going to reread it. thank you
- c-smile 5y agoThe Great Delusion (2020) by prof. John Mearsheimer: https://youtu.be/nZVIaXFN2lU https://youtu.be/nZVIaXFN2lU That if someone really wants to understand where we are with all those Libya, Syria, Iraq, ... Ukraine. And how and when this one really started: https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc As of Francis Fukuyama predictions... I am Ukrainian by myself. With family spread over West Ukraine and Russia East. Note: Russia is the second country after Ukraine where Ukrainians leave. There is a concept of "for the Motherland" and there are many as Russians as Ukrainians who still consider joined Russia and Ukraine as a common motherland and those predictions are completely out of touch in this respect.
- jonahbenton 5y ago[flagged]
- c-smile 5y agoProbably. But the fact that we've transitioned from BiPolar (US<->USSR) to UniPolar(US) and now to MultiPolar world is correct as we see.
- pphysch 5y agoDismissing Mearsheimer as a "right wing thinker" that is "blinded by ideology". Oh the irony. Mearsheimer may be blinded by silly IR theories, but he is a realist (i.e. not ideologue) through and through.
- jonahbenton 5y agoSorry, have to disagree. His repeated "Putin is a brilliant strategist" is right out of right wing orthodoxy. Putin is a nascissist and a ruthless bully. His will to power is generally worshipped on the right, and mistaken for strategic brilliance, but it is not. For instance the endemic corruption in the regime is virtually absent from Mearsheimer analyses, but is critically important from a realist assessment. Putin also sees everything in individual people terms, not structures and systems- unlike, for instance, China. This is also misunderstood on the right- the individual will to power takes precedence over structures and systems. Russia- as a system- has been weakening, not strengthening, acting only in asymmetric contexts like a jackal, a guerrilla terrorist. Mearsheimer has missed this. Cheers.
- stephc_int13 5y agoThis is looking like wishful thinking or propaganda. I love this story and I want it to be true. But I am not sure we know that much. From what we can gather, not everything is going perfectly for Putin, but it could take years or even decades before we can clearly see who are the winners.
- ilamont 5y agoThis is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses. I'm puzzled why more attention isn't focused on Russia's progress in the south and naval superiority. They clearly want Ukraine and the world to accept its annexation of Crimea and bolstering the zone around it is shaping up to be a point of negotiation, as they made clear in one of Putin's demands about a week ago (that was rejected). Regarding Taiwan restoring conscription: They never got rid of it, but basically reduced it from 2 years to 4 months with lots of exceptions. It's amazing they don't follow the model of Israel and South Korea, considering the PRC menace, constant posturing, and aggressive territory grabs in the South China Sea.
- netsharc 5y agoSay Ukraine surrenders and Putin gets what he wants, and the shooting stops, new borders are drawn and soldiers from both sides retreat. I can't see how Putin gets out of the economic war, though. EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions, and they'll boycott businesses who announce they're returning to Russia (they won't anyway, if SWIFT doesn't work and money can't flow easily). What will Putin do? Be a North Korea? I guess he can try increasing trade with China.
- hackerfromthefu 5y agoFrankly as a consumer I'm going to make efforts to avoid Indian and Chinese goods where possible.
- vogre 5y agoYou should also avoid goods made in Indonesia and Turkey.
- vogre 5y ago> EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions They will when they see their gas and food bills. Everyone is hawk in social networks and enjoys its moral justice, but for many workers in Europe these sanctions mean closing their businesses and increasing paychecks. Of course everyone can say that Ukraine has right to join NATO, but how much are you ready to pay for this right? For most of people these events are only important when they are all over [social] media. Most of the people who call for immediate beginning of WW3 will forget about it when media will start the Next Big Story(China? US elections?). How many of enraged US citizens can show Ukraine on the map? Who was in the context of Russo-Ukrainian relationships month ago? When the wartime propaganda is over, people will find a way to collaborate.
- klelatti 5y agoThe question I don’t have an answer for here is how does Russia control Ukraine if they do win militarily? It seems incredibly unlikely that they have enough troops and doesn’t seem remotely sustainable.
- varjag 5y agoThrough a campaign of mass terror and genocide.
- BurningFrog 5y agoThe motivation for the war is that Ukrainians are really Russians who happened to be trapped in a separate country under a Nazi government. Killing all the people you came to liberate is a tough PR sell.
- bambax 5y agoYou're right, but so far it's unclear if Putin is at all concerned with PR.
- srvmshr 5y agoThey can't. An unbiasedly simple answer. Strategically this war is a lost cause for Russia, even if they win militarily in the short term. Capture is one thing. Holding on is another. According to latest estimates, RU has already invested the lion share of its military assets (not army men) in the Ukraine invasion. And they're doing badly. There will be attrition & guerrila warfare if boots stay on Ukrainian soil. They dont have an economy like US/UK to back this up well. They're bleeding under sanctions. Economy is falling as fast as when USSR collapsed. No major foreign trade possible (except the Southern hemisphere countries, China & India) & companies are pulling out. Mass unemployment & currency devaluation will likely follow. The world opinion is not sympathetic to Russia. It is a lose-lose. As of now the Russians are fighting for the sake of one man's inflated ego of building the 'Historic Russia'. The Ukrainians may or may not win this offensive, but they have showed remarkable heroism & solidarity to keep the country fighting.
- purple_ferret 5y agoPeople love to lampoon Fukuyama, but he merely put into words and placed on a pedestal an entire mindset (which continues to persist) that has proven to be highly flawed. I am grateful he exists as at least a small focal point people can bring up. Even now the world just continues with this hazy 'everything's gonna be better eventually' talk that is well loved and perpetuated even in the face of an opposing reality.
- mistermann 5y agoAgreed... Even "thought leaders" think about things simplistically, but people love simplicity so it sells.
- FiberBundle 5y agoHave you actually read "The end of History"?
- yodon 5y ago>Have you actually read "The end of History"? The Hacker News guidelines page[0] is a pretty incredible document. One of the smallest but most central insights in it is "Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. 'Did you even read the article? It mentions that' can be shortened to "The article mentions that." Unlike most sites, HN is very intentional about optimizing everything in the site for quality of discussion, not for outrage and conflict and dismissal. Everything about how the Karma system works here and the way audiences react to posts differently here than on Reddit ties back to that goal (HN isn't interested in page views or ad revenues, it wants to be interesting to smart people so they stick around and participate). [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- shusaku 5y agoExcept “the end of history” isn’t the article linked. Maybe you’d know that if you read it.
- netsharc 5y agoGod, what a simplistic model he's got. Putin is probably on his way to defeat, but it's a long way and IMO we might get a few nuked out cities before that happens. If Europe chickens out then he could be the winner, holding everyone hostage with his finger on the red button in a "Pax Russianus". > 7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power? The way I see it, he's a mafia boss with everyone under him (the military, the police) under his control. It feels like everyone under him is dedicated to the "Make Russia Great Again" cause. If someone takes him out, the new guy will still be a strongman with a big army and nukes, so what's the point? If someone takes him out and offers peace, US/EU/NATO will want a huge armistice (a bit like Germany after WW2) before they'd restore the economic relationship, and if the new guy accepts that sort of conquering, there'll be plenty of people from the "Long Live Russia" side ready to take him out. A better analysis: https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-f91e-4bed-b6dc-0d09582dd007 https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-f91e-4bed-b6dc-0d09582dd...
- smoyer 5y agoI'm not sure I believe any of this beyond the fact that the west's "reserve" has at least kept the conflict from extending beyond Ukraine's borders. If the war ended with Russia pulling out of Ukraine tomorrow, it's my opinion that the sanctions should last until there's a complete overhaul of the Russian government - we don't want this happening every five years!
- smcl 5y agoIs that not precisely the logic the resulted in the rise of the Nazis? Let’s not forget too that sanctions are themselves an means of conducting warfare. Additionally if Russian withdrawal isn’t met by a relaxation of sanctions, what incentive is there for them to withdraw? Edit - to the downvoters: after the central powers were defeated in WW1 some hefty penalties were levied on Germany in the treaty of Versailles. The idea was that they needed to be punished heavily otherwise they'd be tempted to rebuild and enter into another conflict that would consume Europe. Obviously that did not work.
- zozbot234 5y agoIt would be easy to do a partial rollback if the Russians withdraw. I agree though that removing the sanctions completely might be difficult.
- jgwil2 5y agoAfter WWI Germany's government was overhauled and yet the allies still forced them to pay punitive reparations, so it's not exactly the same. But presumably Russia would negotiate some easing of sanctions before they withdraw; they're certainly not just going to admit defeat and withdraw unconditionally.
- pphysch 5y agoI read the title and assumed Fukuyama would be humbly accepting the "defeat" of his "end of history" vision for a unipolar world... > 1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. LOL
- ogogmad 5y agoHow do we know that this is not another Afghanistan/Chechen-1 for Russia? They lost both of those, and I don't think those got off to the same troubled start (for Russia) as this one did. Think flight from the country, brain drain, economic meltdown, loss of 3 generals in one fortnight, Ukraine being flooded with weapons, equipment loss, major logistical failures, the loss of the information war... An outright defeat is now a possibility. > unipolar world What does that mean in the context of Fukuyama's thesis?
- rayiner 5y agoThe difference is that afghans and Chechnyans won’t surrender even if you turn their country into rubble around their feet. They’re accustomed to a brutally hard existence. I’m not sure Ukrainians are in the same situation.
- bambax 5y agoI'm not sure either, but so far they have proven to be incredibly resilient.
- cute_boi 5y agoI agree. Many people press guerilla warfare which I don't think is applicable in Ukraine. Afghanistan and Ukraine are different countries. I don't think people in Ukraine can tolerate the life of Afghani people. They are not used to luxury and were indoctrinated with radical religious views. They were following terrorism, although I don't think they were terrorists as portrayed by the media. Ukraine people are modern and they understand the value of life. And, even if they resist Russian and start to act like a terrorist, the EU won't support them in long run. There is no place in the EU for terrorism or radical beliefs.
- WJW 5y agoAn interesting development in the past few days is that both sides have been testing how far they can take escalation. For example Russia has stated that arming the Ukrainians would be seen as an act of war, but numerous NATO countries have done so anyway and nothing more than strong words has followed. It is also widely accepted that NATO has been supplying the Ukrainians with satellite imagery and the like. OTOH, straight up delivering extra fighter jets or enforcing a no-fly zone is seen as "too much" at the moment. I think the West have several escalation steps more they can get away with if they are careful. After all, what is Russia going to do about it other than starting a nuclear exchange with NATO? The cost to NATO will be extremely high but Putin can be sure he won't survive either and that is what the whole thing was about from the start. It all looks very much like one of the "proxy wars" of the cold war era, only Russia forgot to do it by proxy this time.
- zozbot234 5y ago> I think the West have several escalation steps more they can get away with if they are careful. If so, these escalation steps should be kept in reserve as much as possible, and not deployed carelessly. The Russians have not exactly been restraining themselves thus far, but they could nonetheless be doing a lot worse and being able to deter them without triggering WWIII in the process is kinda important.
- kavalg 5y agoYou do realize that a nuclear exchange may involve the US on the receiving side right and not only Eastern European part of NATO right?
- WJW 5y agoI live in Europe myself, so yes the possibility of my own home being bombed is very much something I'm aware of.
- credit_guy 5y agoI agree with every point he makes. Fantastic summary. I think the Russian collapse will be like what scientists call a phase transition: a semblance of stability one day, a complete breakdown one (literal) day later. Ukraine will end up holding more than 100k POWs. The only negotiations will Russia will be about reparations. I hope they don’t settle for anything less than one trillion.
- BurningFrog 5y agoThe "Single Point of Failure" is Putin. If he's deposed or killed, we probably have a very different Russia the next day.
- credit_guy 5y agoPutin is obviously a point of failure. But so are the hungry and scared soldiers in the field. Putin is not able to supply almost 200k soldiers, most of whom are already tens of kilometers away from the border. There will be some supply trucks coming, but if it's only 80% of what's needed rather than 100% (or better yet 120%), then soon, very soon, people on the front line will start running out of stuff that keeps them in fighting condition. And here you have so many points of failure: water, food, munitions, fuel come to mind. You run out of one of these, you stop fighting, simple as that.
- jnsaff2 5y agoOne can dream but I highly doubt, Russian history is littered with autocrats and tyrants. Brief periods of even nominal democracy have also been highly unstable. The deep rooted ‘russian greatness’ is a very fertile ground for populists.
- BurningFrog 5y agoI wouldn't expect a Jeffersonian democracy from a coup. But a new regime that makes peace and stays within Russian borders would be likely.
- thriftwy 5y ago
- jonahbenton 5y agoThe title is deceptive- Fukuyama, writing from Northern Macedonia, has an extremely optimistic view that Russia will be "defeated" and Putin will fall- notwithstanding enormous, catastrophic losses for Ukraine- with significant downstream implications. The two subpoints with which I agree are that the NATO decision on the MiGs was wise, and that neither Russia nor Ukraine can climb down from their positions. My expectation is that of a long hot/cold standoff, eventual splitting of Ukraine, and gradual North Koreanification of Russia with Putin at the helm.
- zozbot234 5y ago> gradual North Koreanification of Russia with Putin at the helm Which would still be pretty effective in preserving the current international order. If it becomes exceedingly clear that threatening your neighbors militarily means turning your country into a new North Korea at best even if you have nukes, that will deter future leaders from trying the same. (The nukes part is very important because the only thing keeping the current non-proliferation equilibrium in place, at least among developed countries, is an understanding that nukes are only useful to defend against other nukes. Russia's overt threats in the context of this "operation" would otherwise put that equilibrium at serious risk.)
- flycaliguy 5y agoA recent fear of mine has been a false-flag chemical attack followed up by a “justified” nuke to evaporate the evidence.
- BlueTemplar 5y agoPutin is now screwed regardless. His own public opinion is not going to forgive him what he did to their friends and family members in Ukraine. The only question is how long that is going to take, and how bloody it will get.
- FpUser 5y ago>"Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations." General attitude of in Russian army except maybe some strategic stuff is fuck everything coupled with rampant corruption, theft and all encompassing decay. I am not sure China has the same problem and would not count on them being incompetent. >"Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power" I think he knows this well and am I afraid that if he sees the end this abomination of human would engineer something that would lead to a WWIII with all the consequences. I hope he gets eliminated before reaching this stage.
- CodeArtisan 5y agoAlexander Nevzorov on invading Ukraine back in April 2021 https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_pre... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Nevzorov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Nevzorov
- throwaway4good 5y agoKinda absurd take from mister end of history writing out of the balkans.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- yardie 5y agoSurprisingly, I had managed to avoid any sort of layoff, firing for most of my career except that whole dotbomb era. Then COVID came and I had my first RIF, ever. I was told weeks in advance so I could prepare my documentation and handoff. Even though I really liked that job promotions were limited and I was getting restless.
- geuis 5y agoWrong post.
- HideousKojima 5y ago>The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. This line makes me significantly question the author's competence (as if knowing he was the author of The End of History before going into it didn't already negatively color my expectations). Russia has a permanent veto on the security council, of course it's going to be useless. Anything that goes against the interests of one of the veto members will always get vetoed and he's acting like this is some kind of surprising disappointment. Also MiGs somehow wouldn't help stop artillery and rockets? Has the man never heard of bombs? Mind you I don't think NATO should get involved, but supplying more jets and missiles to bomb Russian artillery positions would absolutely help.
- zozbot234 5y agoForcing the Russians to use their veto power at the UNSC is not "useless" at all. It's a meaningful signal, and very much worth doing.
- dh2022 5y agoWhat is the value of this signal? Thank you! (I always thought that UN Security Council did not have any value because veto-yielding members would always block adverse resolutions. If there is any value in the UN Security Council I would really like to know. Thanks again!)
- yyyk 5y agoRegretfully too optimistic. 1) I can see the Russians being bogged down indefinitely, but outright defeat in the manner Fukuyama suggests requires either a counteroffensive or mass mutiny. Ukrainian forces have proven they could defend and execute ambushes, but there haven't been many successful counterattacks, and no large scale counterattacks - and I guess they are right not to try. If the Ukrainians get the timing wrong and Russians aren't entirely out of ammo, they get cut down by Russian artillery, which is one thing the Russians seem to have an endless supply of. 2) Strategic counterattack requires heavy weapons, the weapons Fukuyama suggests not giving Ukraine with a very silly reason ('narratives' are less important than giving weapons the Ukrainians need). I suspect he lets his feelings towards the current US administration get in the way - Ukrainian generals are better suited to know what they need and we should listen. 3) There will be no effect on the fortunes of populists all over the world. The reasons that led to their original success are local and still exist. Also frankly the record of non-populist politicians regarding Putin is less than stellar. For example, if history went a bit differently and the US did not pressure France, Putin would be attacking using Mistral ships sold by France.
- Proven 5y ago
- pbourke 5y agoI can’t believe you’d discuss this situation without considering the nuclear angle. Putin holds a significant wild card in terms of tactical nuclear weapons. I’m sure Russia believes that they could be deployed inside of Ukraine in order to force an end to the Ukrainian resistance and the west would continue to remain on the sidelines to avert escalation to the end of the world. A total defeat/humiliation of Russia without nukes flying seems like a remote possibility. Putin realizes that defeat signals the end of his regime and likely the Russian Federation as constructed today, just like the Russo-Japanese war led to the end of the Russian Empire and Afghanistan war led to the end of the USSR. Right now there lacks Sun Tzu’s “golden bridge” across which Russia could retreat in dignity.
- BlueTemplar 5y agoHe could, but considering the relations between Russian and Ukrainian peoples and the risk of WW3 this would most likely just result in mutiny and the subsequent removal of Putin, probably even just in reaction to that order.
- pbourke 5y agoIf Russia’s willing to drop cluster munitions on Ukrainian cities, I don’t see why they wouldn’t send a tactical nuke to a air base or industrial area. The relations between Russians and Ukrainians seem well and truly fucked at this point as it is. We can hope that a mutiny will happen but it’s by no means guaranteed.
- jansen555 5y ago[dead]
- engineer_22 5y agoIt's been 2 weeks. It's premature to be talking about victory or defeat
- binarray2000 5y agoIt hurts to read the prevailing opinion in the western sphere these days, Fukuyama and comments here included. HN was mostly logical and rational in the past, but lately (Cov-19 and Russia) it is outright one sided. Are you aware that the USA and its "allies" have orchestrated a Coup d'etat in Ukraine? Are you aware of the "F*ck EU" phone call in which Nuland moves people in Ukrainian politics like peons on the chessboard? Are you aware of real Nazis being part of government and security aparatus in Ukraine? Are you aware of Odessa, where dozens of pro-Russian people were burned alive by those same Nazis? Are you aware that Zelensky threatened to make atomic weapons at the Munich Security Conference mid February 2022? Are you aware of the complicity of Biden and his family in this (Hunter and his board seat at Burisma), not to speak of VP Biden blackmailing Ukrainians to fire their attorney general for probing Burisma or they'd get no money from (I think) MMF? This is just a small selection of past events, not to mention new ones. All this is not an isolated, Russia/Ukraine (both predominantly Orthodox Christian), issue. The collective West is causing death and destruction in the Muslim world for at least 30 years, as well. Furthermore, Snowden and Wikileaks documents have revealed a part of corruption in the US political and intelligence system. And there was no war waged by the West that wasn't supported by the Western media. Speaking of Fukuyama: He is a neocon, part of the cabal whose ideology has caused millions of dead and displaced people, their property destroyed. Their ideology has immensely weakened the US with meaningless and costly wars. And you still listen to him instead to shun him. You look ridiculous to the World Outside of the West (~6 billion people) with your "we stand with Ukraine", with how you cancel and sanction everything Russian, how you moralize. Business model of the West for centuries is robbery and enslavement, who rises against it gets bombs on his head (hint: that are those in the World Outside the West). USA is literally built on the genocide of the Natives and the susequent landgrab! That West led by that USA is now condemning Russia for not wanting Nazis with nuclear weapons at her doorstep - imagine that! Do you really don't get all this or do you act out of pure self interest (Russia is a too rich country to have all those riches/resources only for itself)?
- civilized 5y ago> Are you aware that the USA and its "allies" have orchestrated a Coup d'etat in Ukraine? You mean that thing in 2014 where a few Ukrainians protested a thing the president did that they didn't like, and in response the president of Ukraine promptly fled the country never to return? Meanwhile the current president has the entire Russian Army bearing down on him and hasn't left. Some "coup". The truth is, all "Evil West" whataboutism aside, Russia is weak and corrupt and cannot bend Ukraine to its will. Too bad.
- cmurf 5y ago>The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. Useless in a practical sense, in this particular case, yes. It's not at all surprising. Specifically the problem is due to simultaneous issues (a) only the Security Council can commit armed forces to enforce resolutions (b) Security Council resolutions need concurrence of its permanent members (U.S., U.K., France, China, Russia), i.e. this what is often referred to as a veto (c) one of the permanent members is violating the charter in a fundamental manner, and certainly will not vote to enforce the charter on itself. Should there no longer be permanent members of the Security Council? Perhaps. It is likely to change? Nope.
- euroderf 5y ago"Medieval" is well put. Sucks to be besieged by the Russian army. What else might they try ? Maybe catapult some dead cows into cities ? Throw dead bodies down wells ? Drop anthrax from drones ? In any case they seem obv keen to avoid urban warfare. Russian mothers are already on alert to the slaughter.
- jdrc 5y agoHa. Contrary to everyone in here i ll say he is right. Please show me a timeline in which the Russian regime comes out of this stronger, or in which the faith in liberalism (democratic or better) is not restored.
- gumby 5y ago> The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors. While a majority of states voted to condemn the invasion, the countries that voted to let it happen represent a majority of the world's population (it wasn't just India and China; there was widespread support in Africa, for example).
- gumby 5y agoAll this discussion of the "endgame" (not just Fukuyama of course, and he at least is worth listening to). But what's the endgame after the endgame? A "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine is a likely possibility. But a Marshall Plan for Russia, who will need it almost as much? Unlikely.
- fmajid 5y ago> The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. Yes, MiGs, like all manned fighters, are as relevant today in the age of the drone as battleships were during WWII (and arguably the Japanese did us a favor at Pearl Harbor by definitively discrediting the battleship die-hard dead wood in the Navy).