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I don't know how much of what I saw online was Ukraine propaganda. But the Russian military seems to be in bad shape. Almost nothing of the new stuff they para

by k__ 5y ago

I don't know how much of what I saw online was Ukraine propaganda. But the Russian military seems to be in bad shape. Almost nothing of the new stuff they paraded all these years is used in Ukraine. Some people argued that it's a smart ploy, others say they simply don't have the technology in amounts that are enough for a war. It makes me think, how many nukes does Russia actually have? How many are usable? How many are "high tech" enough so they can't be intercepted?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
throwthere 5y ago
I guess all it takes is one
praveen9920 5y ago
It is very much possible that they are "going easy" on Ukraine. Unlike the western media reports, they are clearly targeting strategic locations to bomb( with some civilian casualties ) and they are not advancing faster than they could. To summarise, They may not be in bad shape, they seem to be reluctant to use force against their neighbour.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > It is very much possible that they are "going easy" on Ukraine. They have been (I mean, aside from the deliberate atrocities) but not, I think, intentionally. Ironically, I think it is because Putin’s claims of closeness of the Russian and Ukrainian people aren't wrong, and the Russian conscripts largely shoved into this war don't really have any desire to kill Ukrainian’s for Putin’s murky purposes. That's why they begged Kazakhstan for troops, why they sent Chechen kill squads after Zelenskyy, why they are now recruiting in Syria, etc. The material condition of the Russian Army isn't great, but the human component doesn't seem particularly enthusiastic about the war, either.
seanp2k2 5y ago
I’m pretty convinced that they’re sandbagging to see what happens and how little they can try to get what they want. They’re definitely playing mental games with the rest of the world. What’s much less clear to me is what the actual goal is and what the state of their country will be once it’s settled. Gain Ukraine, lose connection to the rest of the world and most foreign trade, plus put your citizens through hell…it makes me think that the plan must be much bigger to make this “worth it”, assuming we’re dealing with a rational actor.
- codingdave 5y ago
  There were leaked documents of their plan. They expected it to be a 15 day exercise to take Ukraine. The pushback they have received from the entire world was unexpected. I'm not sure of their plans either, but you can be sure that the current events were not their plans. (Or maybe not so sure if everything is propaganda, but this doesn't seem like a well planned effort by any measure.)
- reese_john 5y ago
  They've already had thousands of casualities, including two generals and other high-ranking officials[0]. I wouldn't say they are playing mental games with the rest of the world. It doesn't even look like China, supposedly their number one ally, is on board with all of this[1] Clearly, Russia's army is having a lot of problems, and Putin is not that mastermind that some media segments claim him to be. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/vitaly-gerasimov-second-russian-general-killed-ukraine-defence-ministry-claims https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/vitaly-gerasim... [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sa...
_fs 5y ago
ICBM's cannot be reliably intercepted. 95% of them will get through. Russia has > 300 ICBMS ready to go.
nradov 5y ago
Most of the Russian nukes are likely to be usable, especially the SLBMs. Even when the Russian economy collapsed and their conventional forces fell apart they still managed to scrape together enough funding for their nuclear forces. Our current ability to intercept Russian ballistic missiles is extremely limited. We might get a few at most. There just aren't many interceptors deployed.

by k__ 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

throwthere 5y ago

I guess all it takes is one

praveen9920 5y ago

It is very much possible that they are "going easy" on Ukraine. Unlike the western media reports, they are clearly targeting strategic locations to bomb( with some civilian casualties ) and they are not advancing faster than they could. To summarise, They may not be in bad shape, they seem to be reluctant to use force against their neighbour.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> It is very much possible that they are "going easy" on Ukraine. They have been (I mean, aside from the deliberate atrocities) but not, I think, intentionally. Ironically, I think it is because Putin’s claims of closeness of the Russian and Ukrainian people aren't wrong, and the Russian conscripts largely shoved into this war don't really have any desire to kill Ukrainian’s for Putin’s murky purposes. That's why they begged Kazakhstan for troops, why they sent Chechen kill squads after Zelenskyy, why they are now recruiting in Syria, etc. The material condition of the Russian Army isn't great, but the human component doesn't seem particularly enthusiastic about the war, either.

seanp2k2 5y ago

I’m pretty convinced that they’re sandbagging to see what happens and how little they can try to get what they want. They’re definitely playing mental games with the rest of the world. What’s much less clear to me is what the actual goal is and what the state of their country will be once it’s settled. Gain Ukraine, lose connection to the rest of the world and most foreign trade, plus put your citizens through hell…it makes me think that the plan must be much bigger to make this “worth it”, assuming we’re dealing with a rational actor.

codingdave 5y ago
There were leaked documents of their plan. They expected it to be a 15 day exercise to take Ukraine. The pushback they have received from the entire world was unexpected. I'm not sure of their plans either, but you can be sure that the current events were not their plans. (Or maybe not so sure if everything is propaganda, but this doesn't seem like a well planned effort by any measure.)
reese_john 5y ago
They've already had thousands of casualities, including two generals and other high-ranking officials[0]. I wouldn't say they are playing mental games with the rest of the world. It doesn't even look like China, supposedly their number one ally, is on board with all of this[1] Clearly, Russia's army is having a lot of problems, and Putin is not that mastermind that some media segments claim him to be. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/vitaly-gerasimov-second-russian-general-killed-ukraine-defence-ministry-claims https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/vitaly-gerasim... [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sa...

_fs 5y ago

ICBM's cannot be reliably intercepted. 95% of them will get through. Russia has > 300 ICBMS ready to go.

nradov 5y ago

Most of the Russian nukes are likely to be usable, especially the SLBMs. Even when the Russian economy collapsed and their conventional forces fell apart they still managed to scrape together enough funding for their nuclear forces. Our current ability to intercept Russian ballistic missiles is extremely limited. We might get a few at most. There just aren't many interceptors deployed.