5 ms·

One of my favorite youtubers did an hour long video on the trucker convoy from California to DC and it was a peak into another world. The thing I thought about

by piyh 5y ago

One of my favorite youtubers did an hour long video on the trucker convoy from California to DC and it was a peak into another world. The thing I thought about after watching it was wondering what it looks like when that group has mass unemployment in 10 years. Truck driving employs 1% of the US population and if those jobs are lost to automation, there's no chance of them coming back like they did throughout other recessions. It won't just be the drivers, it'll be their friends, families and children that will be unemployed, unhappy, and very motivated. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKcJrBRVZn4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKcJrBRVZn4

api 5y ago
I'm going to submit that some of these COVID protests are not COVID protests. They are inequality protests, but seriously talking about inequality has been pushed out of the Overton window across much of the American political landscape. As a result the anger "sublimates" out about other issues. The right does a good job guiding the anger of the working class toward issues that have nothing to do with inequality like COVID, race, immigrants, trans people, etc. Meanwhile the left offers up a totally out of touch message that doesn't resonate at all, or offers them welfare without understanding that these people consider welfare to be something to be ashamed about. They want productive work. You know... we have a housing crisis in this country. A lot of these people could find work building adequate housing for the US population, but that would threaten high real estate valuations... We also have a lot of infrastructure that needs building, but we may have to wait for the generation that was brainwashed to believe that infrastructure (except more roads) is communism to retire. There are plenty of jobs but we won't create them. We'd better get on it.
- finnh 5y ago
  Such a good point about housing. Also, green new deal jobs upgrading the energy efficiency of our housing stock. Lots of work to be done.
- ben_w 5y ago
  I have a suspicion that housing will stop being a crisis due to a combination of: 1) the main expense is the land, the houses themselves are cheap, so anything that causes existing-but-undesirable houses to now be in a commuter zone increases useful supply 2) self-driving vehicles will allow people to commute while asleep or doing their hobbies (this is a terrible idea with current tech, people already get in trouble for doing both in existing self-driving cars) 3) remote working (we already have a lot of digital entertainment and socialising) If I’m wrong, I expect it to be because all this makes meatspace location into an even bigger status symbol than it is already.
  - shkkmo 5y ago
    > self-driving vehicles will allow people to commute while asleep or doing their hobbies This doesn't eliminate the traffic issues and energy consumption associated with long commutes. Self-driving cars are a substitute for the efficiency benefits of density. If anything, the expansion of remote work has just pushed the housing crisis into more housing markets.
    - yazaddaruvala 5y ago
      > pushed the housing crisis into more housing markets. FWIW I prefer density but isn’t this good? The reality of yesterday was too few zip codes with too much demand and not enough good will to increase supply. Instead we now have a lot more zip codes that can make decentralized decisions about building more housing. Hopefully they vote for more development and use it as a way to stimulate jobs in their local construction industry. How can this be a bad thing?
      - shkkmo 5y ago
        The new zipcodes face the same economic incentives to restrict supply. Property owners want to see their holdings increase in value and generally have more political power. I don't see any reason why the new hot markets are going to do anything different from the old hot markets. Perhaps some will, but renters and potential homeowners will get priced out of more markets
visarga 5y ago
People will run out of jobs only when they run out of needs and desires.
- shadowgovt 5y ago
  Human psychology is, unfortunately, more complicated than that. There was an attempt in 2016 to prepare a program to retrain coal miners in center Pennsylvania and other traditional mining regions, as the general market, automation, and decrease in available coal from mining had made that a high-unemployment space. Job retraining was on the table. People handily rejected it. They didn't want to do something else; they wanted to mine. The children of professional drivers may find something else to do, but professional drivers are going to, on average, be most comfortable driving, and if there's no driving to be done we're on our way to system shock.
  - willcipriano 5y ago
    What if I told you to quit your job and I'll get you training for another role. If you trusted me you might go with it, but it you knew from previous experience that I was an incompetent buffoon you would likely say no. It's like a guy in a clown outfit saying the nobody wants open heart surgery beacuse everyone turns him down when he asks.
    - shadowgovt 5y ago
      I think your assessment is good. Unfortunately, none of the clowns have taken off their clownsuits so the system shock is still the most probable outcome.

by piyh 5y ago

api 5y ago

I'm going to submit that some of these COVID protests are not COVID protests. They are inequality protests, but seriously talking about inequality has been pushed out of the Overton window across much of the American political landscape. As a result the anger "sublimates" out about other issues. The right does a good job guiding the anger of the working class toward issues that have nothing to do with inequality like COVID, race, immigrants, trans people, etc. Meanwhile the left offers up a totally out of touch message that doesn't resonate at all, or offers them welfare without understanding that these people consider welfare to be something to be ashamed about. They want productive work. You know... we have a housing crisis in this country. A lot of these people could find work building adequate housing for the US population, but that would threaten high real estate valuations... We also have a lot of infrastructure that needs building, but we may have to wait for the generation that was brainwashed to believe that infrastructure (except more roads) is communism to retire. There are plenty of jobs but we won't create them. We'd better get on it.

finnh 5y ago
Such a good point about housing. Also, green new deal jobs upgrading the energy efficiency of our housing stock. Lots of work to be done.
ben_w 5y ago
I have a suspicion that housing will stop being a crisis due to a combination of: 1) the main expense is the land, the houses themselves are cheap, so anything that causes existing-but-undesirable houses to now be in a commuter zone increases useful supply 2) self-driving vehicles will allow people to commute while asleep or doing their hobbies (this is a terrible idea with current tech, people already get in trouble for doing both in existing self-driving cars) 3) remote working (we already have a lot of digital entertainment and socialising) If I’m wrong, I expect it to be because all this makes meatspace location into an even bigger status symbol than it is already.
- shkkmo 5y ago
  > self-driving vehicles will allow people to commute while asleep or doing their hobbies This doesn't eliminate the traffic issues and energy consumption associated with long commutes. Self-driving cars are a substitute for the efficiency benefits of density. If anything, the expansion of remote work has just pushed the housing crisis into more housing markets.
  - yazaddaruvala 5y ago
    > pushed the housing crisis into more housing markets. FWIW I prefer density but isn’t this good? The reality of yesterday was too few zip codes with too much demand and not enough good will to increase supply. Instead we now have a lot more zip codes that can make decentralized decisions about building more housing. Hopefully they vote for more development and use it as a way to stimulate jobs in their local construction industry. How can this be a bad thing?
    - shkkmo 5y ago
      The new zipcodes face the same economic incentives to restrict supply. Property owners want to see their holdings increase in value and generally have more political power. I don't see any reason why the new hot markets are going to do anything different from the old hot markets. Perhaps some will, but renters and potential homeowners will get priced out of more markets

visarga 5y ago

People will run out of jobs only when they run out of needs and desires.

shadowgovt 5y ago
Human psychology is, unfortunately, more complicated than that. There was an attempt in 2016 to prepare a program to retrain coal miners in center Pennsylvania and other traditional mining regions, as the general market, automation, and decrease in available coal from mining had made that a high-unemployment space. Job retraining was on the table. People handily rejected it. They didn't want to do something else; they wanted to mine. The children of professional drivers may find something else to do, but professional drivers are going to, on average, be most comfortable driving, and if there's no driving to be done we're on our way to system shock.
- willcipriano 5y ago
  What if I told you to quit your job and I'll get you training for another role. If you trusted me you might go with it, but it you knew from previous experience that I was an incompetent buffoon you would likely say no. It's like a guy in a clown outfit saying the nobody wants open heart surgery beacuse everyone turns him down when he asks.
  - shadowgovt 5y ago
    I think your assessment is good. Unfortunately, none of the clowns have taken off their clownsuits so the system shock is still the most probable outcome.