5 ms·

It's not a misnomer. And, asserting NATO air dominance in Ukraine is easy and guaranteed to succeed with de minimis cost (in lives and/or military equipment).

by javert 5y ago

It's not a misnomer. And, asserting NATO air dominance in Ukraine is easy and guaranteed to succeed with de minimis cost (in lives and/or military equipment). Whereas creating land dominance with tanks is another matter. A no-fly zone is an easy win for NATO and would make Ukrainian civilians safe from aerial bombardment.

yonaguska 5y ago
A no fly-zone officially drags NATO into the conflict and WW3 kicks off.
- xdennis 5y ago
  As per Putin, there is no war in Ukraine, and as per Lavrov, the Russians have not invaded Ukraine. NATO protecting Ukraine would not trigger anything.
- javert 5y ago
  - FpUser 5y ago
    >"The only potential caveat is if Russia uses nukes. But that doesn't start World War III" Of course not. It'll just vaporize millions of people. Pocket change.
  - vetinari 5y ago
    > What that sums up to, is that it's weak militarily. Hitler thought the same ("elephant with clay feet"). So did Napoleon. Also Charles XII. See the pattern?
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    lol lots of countries thought Russia was a pushover. Also if Russia starts losing they will start launching nukes. Maybe not a "end all civilization" nuke but say one aimed at a middle sized US city like say Portland or Little Rock to prove a point. Are you ready for that? Same for European cities.
  - djrogers 5y ago
    > The only potential caveat is if Russia uses nukes That's a ridiculously huge caveat - especially since the guy in charge appears to be unstable and has already threatened to use them. Triggering Putin would potentially be condemning hundreds of millions of people to death.
    - FpUser 5y ago
      It means nothing to keyboard warriors here.
      - javert 5y ago
        > It means nothing to keyboard warriors here. (entire comment) This kind of insult (you're referring to me, but have probably misconstrued what I said) is not OK on HN. There is no intellectual content at all in what you said. Flagged.
    - ejanus 5y ago
      How did you get your information that he is 'unstable"?
      - throw-ru-938 5y ago
        ...the sources said Macron had been struck by how different Putin was to the man he had met in his summer residence on the French Riviera three years ago. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscow-macron-found-different-tougher-putin-2022-02-10/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscow-macron-found-dif...
        ejanus 5y ago
        Is he a psychiatric doctor?
  - gruez 5y ago
    >The only potential caveat is if Russia uses nukes. But that doesn't start World War III. (However, It probably leads to a partition of Russia like the Allies did to Germany after WWII.) and you know, most cities in the west being a nuclear wasteland
mullen 5y ago
> A no-fly zone is an easy win for NATO Doing this feeds the narrative from Putin that NATO is an aggressive force and it would also go against what NATO is, a defensive alliance.
- xdennis 5y ago
  NATO would be defending Ukraine. Nobody is calling for attacking Moscow.
- javert 5y ago
  So what if it feeds his narrative? "The teacher punishing the bully feeds the bully's narrative that school is unfair." "Feeding a narrative" is never a reason to not do the right thing.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
If NATO shoots down a Russian plane in Ukraine it is most likely WW3. I don't see how anyone can see it any other way.
- xdennis 5y ago
  NATO already shot down a Russian plane in 2015 and nothing happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shoo... .
- squarefoot 5y ago
  If Russia starts WW3 they'll be nuked as well. Contrary to popular belief, Putin is all but stupid or crazy, and he'd never put himself and his country in a position to lose everything. If NATO or any other EU country shoots down a Russian plane -in Ukraine- Russians will retaliate -in Ukraine- with conventional weapons. But this time they know the odds might be against them and probably will be more inclined to real negotiations, not the farce they have been conducting until now.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Even if Putin is intelligent and sane (questionable), it's still possible for him to miscalculate and get into a situation where it's impossible to de-escalate. Calls for a no-fly zone are just idiotic and display a complete disconnect from the military reality. Anyone who believes it can work should watch this video where military aviators with actual experience in enforcing no-fly zones explain the problems. https://youtu.be/himAfYxkigk https://youtu.be/himAfYxkigk
  - ashwagary 5y ago
    >If NATO or any other EU country shoots down a Russian plane -in Ukraine- Russians will retaliate -in Ukraine- with conventional weapons. I think this is a sensitive area where acting like there is any certainty is dangerous. I can't agree with your assumptions about 2nd order and 3rd order effects because there are too many known and unknown variables to consider.
djrogers 5y ago
a) There's been very little aerial bombardment to date - tons of missiles, rockets, and artillery though - none of which respect no-fly zones. b) Do you know how that mad man in charge of Russia would respond if a US jet shot down one of his planes? I don't, but the worst case scenario is pretty darned bad.

by javert 5y ago

yonaguska 5y ago

A no fly-zone officially drags NATO into the conflict and WW3 kicks off.

xdennis 5y ago
As per Putin, there is no war in Ukraine, and as per Lavrov, the Russians have not invaded Ukraine. NATO protecting Ukraine would not trigger anything.
javert 5y ago
- FpUser 5y ago
  >"The only potential caveat is if Russia uses nukes. But that doesn't start World War III" Of course not. It'll just vaporize millions of people. Pocket change.
- vetinari 5y ago
  > What that sums up to, is that it's weak militarily. Hitler thought the same ("elephant with clay feet"). So did Napoleon. Also Charles XII. See the pattern?
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  lol lots of countries thought Russia was a pushover. Also if Russia starts losing they will start launching nukes. Maybe not a "end all civilization" nuke but say one aimed at a middle sized US city like say Portland or Little Rock to prove a point. Are you ready for that? Same for European cities.
- djrogers 5y ago
  > The only potential caveat is if Russia uses nukes That's a ridiculously huge caveat - especially since the guy in charge appears to be unstable and has already threatened to use them. Triggering Putin would potentially be condemning hundreds of millions of people to death.
  - FpUser 5y ago
    It means nothing to keyboard warriors here.
    - javert 5y ago
      > It means nothing to keyboard warriors here. (entire comment) This kind of insult (you're referring to me, but have probably misconstrued what I said) is not OK on HN. There is no intellectual content at all in what you said. Flagged.
  - ejanus 5y ago
    How did you get your information that he is 'unstable"?
    - throw-ru-938 5y ago
      ...the sources said Macron had been struck by how different Putin was to the man he had met in his summer residence on the French Riviera three years ago. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscow-macron-found-different-tougher-putin-2022-02-10/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscow-macron-found-dif...
      - ejanus 5y ago
        Is he a psychiatric doctor?
- gruez 5y ago
  >The only potential caveat is if Russia uses nukes. But that doesn't start World War III. (However, It probably leads to a partition of Russia like the Allies did to Germany after WWII.) and you know, most cities in the west being a nuclear wasteland

mullen 5y ago

> A no-fly zone is an easy win for NATO Doing this feeds the narrative from Putin that NATO is an aggressive force and it would also go against what NATO is, a defensive alliance.

xdennis 5y ago
NATO would be defending Ukraine. Nobody is calling for attacking Moscow.
javert 5y ago
So what if it feeds his narrative? "The teacher punishing the bully feeds the bully's narrative that school is unfair." "Feeding a narrative" is never a reason to not do the right thing.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

If NATO shoots down a Russian plane in Ukraine it is most likely WW3. I don't see how anyone can see it any other way.

xdennis 5y ago
NATO already shot down a Russian plane in 2015 and nothing happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shoo... .
squarefoot 5y ago
If Russia starts WW3 they'll be nuked as well. Contrary to popular belief, Putin is all but stupid or crazy, and he'd never put himself and his country in a position to lose everything. If NATO or any other EU country shoots down a Russian plane -in Ukraine- Russians will retaliate -in Ukraine- with conventional weapons. But this time they know the odds might be against them and probably will be more inclined to real negotiations, not the farce they have been conducting until now.
- nradov 5y ago
  Even if Putin is intelligent and sane (questionable), it's still possible for him to miscalculate and get into a situation where it's impossible to de-escalate. Calls for a no-fly zone are just idiotic and display a complete disconnect from the military reality. Anyone who believes it can work should watch this video where military aviators with actual experience in enforcing no-fly zones explain the problems. https://youtu.be/himAfYxkigk https://youtu.be/himAfYxkigk
- ashwagary 5y ago
  >If NATO or any other EU country shoots down a Russian plane -in Ukraine- Russians will retaliate -in Ukraine- with conventional weapons. I think this is a sensitive area where acting like there is any certainty is dangerous. I can't agree with your assumptions about 2nd order and 3rd order effects because there are too many known and unknown variables to consider.

djrogers 5y ago

a) There's been very little aerial bombardment to date - tons of missiles, rockets, and artillery though - none of which respect no-fly zones. b) Do you know how that mad man in charge of Russia would respond if a US jet shot down one of his planes? I don't, but the worst case scenario is pretty darned bad.