3 ms·

From what I've read the removal of lead from gasoline is partially a factor in the sudden reduction of crime during the latter half of the 20th century, but it'

From what I've read the removal of lead from gasoline is partially a factor in the sudden reduction of crime during the latter half of the 20th century, but it's not enough to explain the entire trend... which seems to be a preponderance of factors.

bpodgursky 5y ago
People say this about lead, people say this about abortion, people say this about building more prisons and 3-strike laws. Nothing is monocausal, don't trust anyone who makes such a claim unless they provide extraordinary evidence.
- ch4s3 5y ago
  Obviously nothing is monocausal, but it seems like the link with lead here is best supported by evidence among the things you've listed. It holds constant across several countries and cultures where those other factors are quite different. Western Europe wasn't throwing up prisons and enacting 3-strike laws, but saw similar declines in crime. You can find similar counter examples around abortion access as well. Those thing probably contribute, but the effect size of removing lead from the environments seem really large!
  - jeffbee 5y ago
    The lead hypothesis is supported by particularly strong evidence: there is a natural threshold experiment where school children with blood lead levels over a certain amount are treated to remove lead from their home environment (and their bodies) while other children just below the same lead level were not treated. The difference in later life outcomes are stark. There is no such natural experiment for abortion. It's just an idea. https://ftp.iza.org/dp10872.pdf https://ftp.iza.org/dp10872.pdf
    - bpodgursky 5y ago
      I'm not in the slightest challenging that lead is terrible for IQ; it's the link to national crime stats that I think is more tenuous.
      - pessimizer 5y ago
        https://jabberwocking.com/has-the-lead-crime-hypothesis-been-debunked/ https://jabberwocking.com/has-the-lead-crime-hypothesis-been...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
gordian-mind 5y ago
Maybe it was rather the removal of "lead victims" that led to the sudden reduction of crime.
xhkkffbf 5y ago
But then there's been a huge rise in crime. The murder rate in some cities is dramatically higher than just a few years ago. But it's not like the gas suddenly became leaded again. This makes me think that we just can't be too certain about these things.
- watwut 5y ago
  There was not huge rise in crime in general. There were more murders during lockdowns in US, which is in fact to be expected since people were forced to be with close relatives - and most murders are by close people.
  - bluedino 5y ago
    Murders have been on the rise since 2014 or so
    - watwut 5y ago
      No. They went up in 2014 and 2015. They went down in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
- micromacrofoot 5y ago
  > But then there's been a huge rise in crime Is this actually true? I've seen a lot of people saying this politically but haven't seen a lot of data to back it up. From what I've seen there's been a slight bump, which isn't too surprising given the state of everything... but it's still massively dwarfed by the decrease in the 90s and 00s For example https://www.bbc.com/news/57581270 https://www.bbc.com/news/57581270
  - ryan93 5y ago
    https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/27/what-we-know-about-the-increase-in-u-s-murders-in-2020/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/27/what-we-kno...
jhoechtl 5y ago
The remainder can be explained by bread and games = cheap food and game consoles which kept the kids playing in the house instead of being part of a gang.

bpodgursky 5y ago

People say this about lead, people say this about abortion, people say this about building more prisons and 3-strike laws. Nothing is monocausal, don't trust anyone who makes such a claim unless they provide extraordinary evidence.

ch4s3 5y ago
Obviously nothing is monocausal, but it seems like the link with lead here is best supported by evidence among the things you've listed. It holds constant across several countries and cultures where those other factors are quite different. Western Europe wasn't throwing up prisons and enacting 3-strike laws, but saw similar declines in crime. You can find similar counter examples around abortion access as well. Those thing probably contribute, but the effect size of removing lead from the environments seem really large!
- jeffbee 5y ago
  The lead hypothesis is supported by particularly strong evidence: there is a natural threshold experiment where school children with blood lead levels over a certain amount are treated to remove lead from their home environment (and their bodies) while other children just below the same lead level were not treated. The difference in later life outcomes are stark. There is no such natural experiment for abortion. It's just an idea. https://ftp.iza.org/dp10872.pdf https://ftp.iza.org/dp10872.pdf
  - bpodgursky 5y ago
    I'm not in the slightest challenging that lead is terrible for IQ; it's the link to national crime stats that I think is more tenuous.
    - pessimizer 5y ago
      https://jabberwocking.com/has-the-lead-crime-hypothesis-been-debunked/ https://jabberwocking.com/has-the-lead-crime-hypothesis-been...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

gordian-mind 5y ago

Maybe it was rather the removal of "lead victims" that led to the sudden reduction of crime.

xhkkffbf 5y ago

But then there's been a huge rise in crime. The murder rate in some cities is dramatically higher than just a few years ago. But it's not like the gas suddenly became leaded again. This makes me think that we just can't be too certain about these things.

watwut 5y ago
There was not huge rise in crime in general. There were more murders during lockdowns in US, which is in fact to be expected since people were forced to be with close relatives - and most murders are by close people.
- bluedino 5y ago
  Murders have been on the rise since 2014 or so
  - watwut 5y ago
    No. They went up in 2014 and 2015. They went down in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
micromacrofoot 5y ago
> But then there's been a huge rise in crime Is this actually true? I've seen a lot of people saying this politically but haven't seen a lot of data to back it up. From what I've seen there's been a slight bump, which isn't too surprising given the state of everything... but it's still massively dwarfed by the decrease in the 90s and 00s For example https://www.bbc.com/news/57581270 https://www.bbc.com/news/57581270
- ryan93 5y ago
  https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/27/what-we-know-about-the-increase-in-u-s-murders-in-2020/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/27/what-we-kno...

jhoechtl 5y ago

The remainder can be explained by bread and games = cheap food and game consoles which kept the kids playing in the house instead of being part of a gang.