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Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which wou

by jcfrei 5y ago

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

mytailorisrich 5y ago
This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed by Georgia. Moldovans are actually a minority in Transnistria, which has also seen open tensions since the fall of the USSR. Lastly, Crimea, which was Russian until 1954, will definitely require a war and ethnic cleansing if Ukraine want to take it again and to keep it.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  Crimea could turn into an independent, mostly Russian speaking, fully demilitarized country living off tourism. Possibly joining the EU later. I bet they would be much richer than today. Being a part of Russia sucks from the economic point of view. IDK if Crimean Russians are so nationalistic that they would rather live in a semi-starved, heavily sanctioned, economically isolated country.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    Why can't they remain part of Russia like they historically were (well, I mean since Russia took over form the Tatars, of course) and seem to want? It's not because Russia has taken Crimea back in a rather cavalier way that they should be split again just to weaken Russia. This can only perpetuate resentment and problems.
    - inglor_cz 5y ago
      They can, if they prefer to, but in order to achieve lasting peace in the Black Sea, Crimea should IMHO be demilitarized. Having Russian military bases on their south flank is a major security problem for Ukraine.
      - nullifidian 5y ago
        On what basis are you fantasizing about demilitarization of a nuclear state? How would that work? I hate Putin as much as the next person, but nothing will happen to the Russia proper -- they'll start throwing nukes, tactical first, then strategic.
        inglor_cz 5y ago
        Peace treaties in the past contained all sorts of demilitarization clauses. It is not unprecedented.
        nullifidian 5y ago
        Counties sign such peace treaties when they lose hard enough to start losing their territory proper, or they are forced to capitulate, are occupied. How would a nuclear state lose their territory proper? There were indeed various peace treaties in the past, but not a nuclear state losing their territory proper.
    - Navarr 5y ago
      Speaking only as an American, I don't think we really know what Crimeans want. Russia isn't well-known for legitimate democratic voting, and the Crimean referendum has never been acknowledged by Western Democracies. I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it. But the question always goes - where do we draw lines. Should we support the concept of the Confederate States of America seceding from the United States? If California or Texas wanted to secede, should we support it? Wales? Okinawa? Quebec? How should governments determine actual stake and determination over a specific part of land?
- Giorgi 5y ago
  This is inaccurate information, Russia fought both wars in Georgia, currently Abkhazians and Ossetians are Russian citizens (they grabbed Russian passports as soon as they become available) so they will go back to their motherland Russia, Georgia will re-absorb it's own historical territory. Looks like you are spreading Russian propaganda in bad faith.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    Oh so you're saying that Georgia wants to forcibly take those territories and go full ethnic cleansing (That's how I read what you wrote, I'm not trying it on)? If so, they might indeed prefer to have the Russian army around...
    - Giorgi 5y ago
      Again, you are spreading Russian propaganda, Hacker News is not a place for Russian shills.
    - orwin 5y ago
      I've hosted Ossetians (well, my mother did) back in the days. There is actually a huge diaspora in France, and even when they are deeply religious, they do hate Russia with a passion I've never felt with anyone else. So I'm quite disbelieving this kind of statements, maybe my vision is skewed by my experience.
  - jhbadger 5y ago
    Abkhazians and Ossetians aren't "Russians" ethnically, culturally, or linguistically though. Why would they want to go "back" to Russia (not their homeland)? The whole point of their struggle is ultimately to get their own countries just as other ethnic groups have. They merely accepted Russian aid and citizenship as a way to get out of Georgian rule. Which of course may ultimately be going from the frying pan into the fire.
    - Giorgi 5y ago
      They rushed to took Russian passports thus they are Russian citizens and can go back to their homeland Russia. The whole point of their struggle was Russian invasion so Russians could build military bases there (which they eventually did)
- jcfrei 5y ago
  Independent countries are one way to go. A mostly independent region within a federalized republic could be another.
  - toyg 5y ago
    Isn't technically Russia a federation already...?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- WilTimSon 5y ago
  > This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Curious that, at least in the case of Georgia and Ukraine, those territories only decided they didn't want to be part of their countries when Russian troops rolled in and made totally non-threatening offers.
  - nullifidian 5y ago
    >Curious that, at least in the case of Georgia That's not entirely true. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhaz%E2%80%93Georgian_conflict https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhaz%E2%80%93Georgian_confli...
    - WilTimSon 5y ago
      Well, from the Wiki: "a militia composed of ethnic Georgians who lived in Abkhazia and Russian-backed separatist forces". Sure, there may be a slice of population that wants to leave but how can that be gouged properly when Russia keeps influencing the people and supplying weapons to separatists? There's a cause and effect here.
      - nullifidian 5y ago
        The fact is that Abkhazians haven't been fans of the idea of being part of Georgia, even before they were forcibly incorporated into Georgia by the Soviets, and the ethnic strife started before the collapse of the SU, and before the armed conflict (and Russian military assistance) has started. In Spain's Catalonia separatist sentiment can be gauged properly, but does that help with an actual realization of that sentiment? Not much. And that's a highly developed European country, from which Georgia is still very far institutionally, and was even farther in the 90ies.
  - darebak 5y ago
    Not true.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- atdrummond 5y ago
  Can people who downvoted this explain why? I don't know much about Crimea and its situation but I've spent considerable time in both Abkhazia and Transnistria; I have a number of businesses that I have based out of Tiraspol and Sokhumi. While far from a fan of Russia's interventions in both regions, I have long felt, form talking to as many people as possible in both nations, that the majority (although not necessarily an overwhelming one) support the countries being independent from Tbilisi and Chișinău, respectively. I'm more than happy to have my priors re-adjusted here.
smcl 5y ago
Is there any particularly strong desire within Abkhazia to return to being part of Georgia proper? I'm sure in the event of a Russian collapse it would likely be reintegrated by Georgia anyway, but my naive understanding was that they'd always considered themselves a distinct people and separate territory and that being allied to Russia was convenient for both (with the Abkhaz being able to largely self-rule on paper at least, and Russia getting a pliant neighbour it can exert a lot of power over and perhaps annex at a future convenient date)
HidyBush 5y ago
> Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Can anybody confirm this? I haven't seen any state official talking about getting Königsberg or Karelia back. Where has this positioning been hinted? I might have missed something.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  I haven't heard an official statement about Kaliningrad either, but I am acquainted with a few MEPs and their assistants, and there is some excited backroom talk about it. The Kaliningrad exclave is a huge territorial and security headache for the EU.
  - TMWNN 5y ago
    Germany isn't going to take it back. It already had the chance, I believe, during the 1990s in exchange for a large sum of money but refused. Germany's eastern boundaries are formally set by treaty. Germany does not want jokes about the "return of German revanchism" and "East Prussia". More seriously, Germany would not want to absorb so many Russian speakers. A small, Russian-speaking nation under EU's influence (and presumably future EU member) would be a good thing for the EU, to show off to the world (and specifically to Russia, as a positive example).

by jcfrei 5y ago

mytailorisrich 5y ago

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed by Georgia. Moldovans are actually a minority in Transnistria, which has also seen open tensions since the fall of the USSR. Lastly, Crimea, which was Russian until 1954, will definitely require a war and ethnic cleansing if Ukraine want to take it again and to keep it.

inglor_cz 5y ago
Crimea could turn into an independent, mostly Russian speaking, fully demilitarized country living off tourism. Possibly joining the EU later. I bet they would be much richer than today. Being a part of Russia sucks from the economic point of view. IDK if Crimean Russians are so nationalistic that they would rather live in a semi-starved, heavily sanctioned, economically isolated country.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  Why can't they remain part of Russia like they historically were (well, I mean since Russia took over form the Tatars, of course) and seem to want? It's not because Russia has taken Crimea back in a rather cavalier way that they should be split again just to weaken Russia. This can only perpetuate resentment and problems.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    They can, if they prefer to, but in order to achieve lasting peace in the Black Sea, Crimea should IMHO be demilitarized. Having Russian military bases on their south flank is a major security problem for Ukraine.
    - nullifidian 5y ago
      On what basis are you fantasizing about demilitarization of a nuclear state? How would that work? I hate Putin as much as the next person, but nothing will happen to the Russia proper -- they'll start throwing nukes, tactical first, then strategic.
      - inglor_cz 5y ago
        Peace treaties in the past contained all sorts of demilitarization clauses. It is not unprecedented.
        nullifidian 5y ago
        Counties sign such peace treaties when they lose hard enough to start losing their territory proper, or they are forced to capitulate, are occupied. How would a nuclear state lose their territory proper? There were indeed various peace treaties in the past, but not a nuclear state losing their territory proper.
  - Navarr 5y ago
    Speaking only as an American, I don't think we really know what Crimeans want. Russia isn't well-known for legitimate democratic voting, and the Crimean referendum has never been acknowledged by Western Democracies. I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it. But the question always goes - where do we draw lines. Should we support the concept of the Confederate States of America seceding from the United States? If California or Texas wanted to secede, should we support it? Wales? Okinawa? Quebec? How should governments determine actual stake and determination over a specific part of land?
Giorgi 5y ago
This is inaccurate information, Russia fought both wars in Georgia, currently Abkhazians and Ossetians are Russian citizens (they grabbed Russian passports as soon as they become available) so they will go back to their motherland Russia, Georgia will re-absorb it's own historical territory. Looks like you are spreading Russian propaganda in bad faith.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  Oh so you're saying that Georgia wants to forcibly take those territories and go full ethnic cleansing (That's how I read what you wrote, I'm not trying it on)? If so, they might indeed prefer to have the Russian army around...
  - Giorgi 5y ago
    Again, you are spreading Russian propaganda, Hacker News is not a place for Russian shills.
  - orwin 5y ago
    I've hosted Ossetians (well, my mother did) back in the days. There is actually a huge diaspora in France, and even when they are deeply religious, they do hate Russia with a passion I've never felt with anyone else. So I'm quite disbelieving this kind of statements, maybe my vision is skewed by my experience.
- jhbadger 5y ago
  Abkhazians and Ossetians aren't "Russians" ethnically, culturally, or linguistically though. Why would they want to go "back" to Russia (not their homeland)? The whole point of their struggle is ultimately to get their own countries just as other ethnic groups have. They merely accepted Russian aid and citizenship as a way to get out of Georgian rule. Which of course may ultimately be going from the frying pan into the fire.
  - Giorgi 5y ago
    They rushed to took Russian passports thus they are Russian citizens and can go back to their homeland Russia. The whole point of their struggle was Russian invasion so Russians could build military bases there (which they eventually did)
jcfrei 5y ago
Independent countries are one way to go. A mostly independent region within a federalized republic could be another.
- toyg 5y ago
  Isn't technically Russia a federation already...?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
WilTimSon 5y ago
> This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Curious that, at least in the case of Georgia and Ukraine, those territories only decided they didn't want to be part of their countries when Russian troops rolled in and made totally non-threatening offers.
- nullifidian 5y ago
  >Curious that, at least in the case of Georgia That's not entirely true. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhaz%E2%80%93Georgian_conflict https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhaz%E2%80%93Georgian_confli...
  - WilTimSon 5y ago
    Well, from the Wiki: "a militia composed of ethnic Georgians who lived in Abkhazia and Russian-backed separatist forces". Sure, there may be a slice of population that wants to leave but how can that be gouged properly when Russia keeps influencing the people and supplying weapons to separatists? There's a cause and effect here.
    - nullifidian 5y ago
      The fact is that Abkhazians haven't been fans of the idea of being part of Georgia, even before they were forcibly incorporated into Georgia by the Soviets, and the ethnic strife started before the collapse of the SU, and before the armed conflict (and Russian military assistance) has started. In Spain's Catalonia separatist sentiment can be gauged properly, but does that help with an actual realization of that sentiment? Not much. And that's a highly developed European country, from which Georgia is still very far institutionally, and was even farther in the 90ies.
- darebak 5y ago
  Not true.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
atdrummond 5y ago
Can people who downvoted this explain why? I don't know much about Crimea and its situation but I've spent considerable time in both Abkhazia and Transnistria; I have a number of businesses that I have based out of Tiraspol and Sokhumi. While far from a fan of Russia's interventions in both regions, I have long felt, form talking to as many people as possible in both nations, that the majority (although not necessarily an overwhelming one) support the countries being independent from Tbilisi and Chișinău, respectively. I'm more than happy to have my priors re-adjusted here.

smcl 5y ago

Is there any particularly strong desire within Abkhazia to return to being part of Georgia proper? I'm sure in the event of a Russian collapse it would likely be reintegrated by Georgia anyway, but my naive understanding was that they'd always considered themselves a distinct people and separate territory and that being allied to Russia was convenient for both (with the Abkhaz being able to largely self-rule on paper at least, and Russia getting a pliant neighbour it can exert a lot of power over and perhaps annex at a future convenient date)

HidyBush 5y ago

> Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Can anybody confirm this? I haven't seen any state official talking about getting Königsberg or Karelia back. Where has this positioning been hinted? I might have missed something.

inglor_cz 5y ago
I haven't heard an official statement about Kaliningrad either, but I am acquainted with a few MEPs and their assistants, and there is some excited backroom talk about it. The Kaliningrad exclave is a huge territorial and security headache for the EU.
- TMWNN 5y ago
  Germany isn't going to take it back. It already had the chance, I believe, during the 1990s in exchange for a large sum of money but refused. Germany's eastern boundaries are formally set by treaty. Germany does not want jokes about the "return of German revanchism" and "East Prussia". More seriously, Germany would not want to absorb so many Russian speakers. A small, Russian-speaking nation under EU's influence (and presumably future EU member) would be a good thing for the EU, to show off to the world (and specifically to Russia, as a positive example).