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>They don't seem to be pulling it off now. Their capabilites will only degrade once the sanctions bite fully. I'd like Ukraine to win, but if you listen to the

>They don't seem to be pulling it off now. Their capabilites will only degrade once the sanctions bite fully. I'd like Ukraine to win, but if you listen to the former head of Mi6 and US military experts, they don't give Ukraine much chance of actually winning, as they're severely outgunned and outnumbered vs Russia, despite aid from the west. Despite taking heavy losses, Russia's use of tried and tested WW2 style of encircle the big cities and slowly pummle them into submission with artilerie, and endless cannon fodder plus ruthless trained killers form Chechnya, seems to be working for them slowly but surely. And the sanctions are mostly affecting the average Russian who can't buy iPhones, Ikea furniture anymore or use Paypal, but it has no effect on Putin's war machine or on his grasp of political power in Russia. Banned western goods will still come into Russia through Serbia and Kazakhstan anyway, as they're not sanctioned countries and have liberal trade policies with Russia.

inglor_cz 5y ago
I don't think they will win. Their morale is very low, OSINT is full of abandoned vehicles. At this point, they are losing equipment much faster than they can produce new one, no one can churn out a dozen new military helicopters in 2 weeks. This alone will be a major source of attrition. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are getting very efficient weapons from the West and they are being replenished constantly. If Russia could have prevented the inflow, they would have done so. Sieges of big cities are a messy, protracted affair that may take years (see: Sarajevo, Leningrad). They consume enormous resources - e.g. Leningrad was besieged by 750 000 Germans. Russia isn't capable of supplying a much smaller task force right now. What makes you think that they could mobilize "endless cannon fodder" (e.g. five million men or so), equip them with something more efficient than AK-47s, throw them into the theater and supply them with fuel, ammo and food if they are struggling to supply a mere 180 000?
- ChuckNorris89 5y ago
  Depends to which sources you're listening to. Reddit and EU mainstream media are filled with constant propaganda that Ukraine is holding up and Russia is suffering from sanctions and loosing the war, but if you listen to actual military experts from the likes of Mi6 and USA agencies, they are skeptical of Ukraine being able to win this and western sanctions barely changing anything in favor of the Ukraine.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    That same type of expert predicted that Ukraine will barely last a few days, and cities close to Russia ( Kyiv, Kharkiv) will fall quick. They, as well as the Russians, underestimated Ukrainian resolve, and just how terrible Russian logistics and morale are.
    - glogla 5y ago
      Some people say that Russians are spent and incapable of supplying themselves and their efforts will collapse due to lack of food and fuel. Some people say that Russians are holding back and preparing winning push. Some people say the Russians will just try to hold what they gained so far (which is few minor cities, despite maps colored red) and try to achieve their objectives in negotiations. Hard to say what will happen.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    I don't think you need experts to see how the Russian offensive has stalled everywhere. Even in the south they barely make any progress at all.
    - orwin 5y ago
      If mariopol hold a month, you could be able to say they didn't make any progress. Unlikely bit still.
    - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
      >I don't think you need experts to see how the Russian offensive has stalled everywhere. Even in the south they barely make any progress at all. If you analyze the actual situation, they're stalling there for good reason, nor because they can't go further. They're setting up permanent bases there so they can resupply easier, setup a field hospital and a service center for vehicle repairs. It will make next offensive much more efective, in theory.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > ...that Ukraine is holding up and Russia is suffering from sanctions and loosing the war, but if you listen to actual military experts from the likes of Mi6 and USA agencies, they are skeptical of Ukraine being able to win this and western sanctions barely changing anything in favor of the Ukraine. Both of those things can be true at the same time.

inglor_cz 5y ago

I don't think they will win. Their morale is very low, OSINT is full of abandoned vehicles. At this point, they are losing equipment much faster than they can produce new one, no one can churn out a dozen new military helicopters in 2 weeks. This alone will be a major source of attrition. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are getting very efficient weapons from the West and they are being replenished constantly. If Russia could have prevented the inflow, they would have done so. Sieges of big cities are a messy, protracted affair that may take years (see: Sarajevo, Leningrad). They consume enormous resources - e.g. Leningrad was besieged by 750 000 Germans. Russia isn't capable of supplying a much smaller task force right now. What makes you think that they could mobilize "endless cannon fodder" (e.g. five million men or so), equip them with something more efficient than AK-47s, throw them into the theater and supply them with fuel, ammo and food if they are struggling to supply a mere 180 000?

ChuckNorris89 5y ago
Depends to which sources you're listening to. Reddit and EU mainstream media are filled with constant propaganda that Ukraine is holding up and Russia is suffering from sanctions and loosing the war, but if you listen to actual military experts from the likes of Mi6 and USA agencies, they are skeptical of Ukraine being able to win this and western sanctions barely changing anything in favor of the Ukraine.
- sofixa 5y ago
  That same type of expert predicted that Ukraine will barely last a few days, and cities close to Russia ( Kyiv, Kharkiv) will fall quick. They, as well as the Russians, underestimated Ukrainian resolve, and just how terrible Russian logistics and morale are.
  - glogla 5y ago
    Some people say that Russians are spent and incapable of supplying themselves and their efforts will collapse due to lack of food and fuel. Some people say that Russians are holding back and preparing winning push. Some people say the Russians will just try to hold what they gained so far (which is few minor cities, despite maps colored red) and try to achieve their objectives in negotiations. Hard to say what will happen.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  I don't think you need experts to see how the Russian offensive has stalled everywhere. Even in the south they barely make any progress at all.
  - orwin 5y ago
    If mariopol hold a month, you could be able to say they didn't make any progress. Unlikely bit still.
  - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
    >I don't think you need experts to see how the Russian offensive has stalled everywhere. Even in the south they barely make any progress at all. If you analyze the actual situation, they're stalling there for good reason, nor because they can't go further. They're setting up permanent bases there so they can resupply easier, setup a field hospital and a service center for vehicle repairs. It will make next offensive much more efective, in theory.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > ...that Ukraine is holding up and Russia is suffering from sanctions and loosing the war, but if you listen to actual military experts from the likes of Mi6 and USA agencies, they are skeptical of Ukraine being able to win this and western sanctions barely changing anything in favor of the Ukraine. Both of those things can be true at the same time.