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It's so incredibly sad to see this playing out exactly as many predicted and being unable to stop it (due to the threat of nuclear war). It's like standing on a

It's so incredibly sad to see this playing out exactly as many predicted and being unable to stop it (due to the threat of nuclear war). It's like standing on a train track and seeing an oncoming train miles away and yet being unable to move. So many (more) Ukrainians are about to die or suffer horribly, and much of the physical history and cultural artifacts of that city will be destroyed.

alephnan 5y ago
> It's so incredibly sad to see this playing out exactly as many predicted The narrative started out that Putin is a dog backed into a corner, therefore he is bluffing and won’t actually invade. The story was also that he has the most to lose. Maybe the premise was correct, but the conclusion hasn’t been proven valid yet.
- shmageggy 5y ago
  There has been a lot of hopeful, and daresay wishful thinking so far, but even Boris Johnson was warning of this potentiality a couple of days into the invasion, and I doubt that thought had only just occurred. > ...his only instinct is going to be to double down and to try and ‘Grozny-fy’ Kyiv, if you know what I mean. And to reduce it to [rubble] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/mar/01/uk-politics-live-dominic-raab-russia-war-crimes-warning-ukraine-invasion https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/mar/01/uk-pol...
- neuronic 5y ago
  Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology (unite the ethnically Russian people). Add to that miscommunication within all sectors of government just to please your superiors and that's how you arrive at the, sorry, shit tier decision making surrounding this entire war. Anyone with half a brain should have seen the economic and geopolitical disaster resulting from this. And I firmly believe that many in military, intelligence, economy etc. DID SEE IT. But talking about it was never accepted and harshly punished. This war has ended Russia as we know it and will make it just another vassal of China. It's interesting and terrifying to observe the new fascist "Z" propaganda being pushed by Putin as well...
  - thaumasiotes 5y ago
    > Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology This is the only type of rationality. What are you imagining when you say "objectively rational"? > Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Being rational as defined by your personal ideology is what economic models postulate when they assume rationality.
    - alephnan 5y ago
      Yes and otherwise the prisoner’s dilemma wouldn’t be a thing.
    - neuronic 5y ago
      > This is the only type of rationality. What are you imagining when you say "objectively rational"? I really disagree. For starters, I would put "not tank your economy into the stone age" firmly into the objectively rational category of thinking. How can this war ever be "worth it" for Putin? Ukrainians will never accept the occupation force and RUSSIA DOESNT EVEN HAVE ONE to begin with. They cannot at all maintain an occupation in the Ukraine. Incapable. This was a spear-head blitzkrieg operation aimed at replacing Selenskij within a week that was poorly planned and immediately failed and now they are completely and utterly screwed. Putin made this decision based off bad information fed to him - a downside when suppressing your subordinates, keeping bootlickers around and punishing differing opinions. The objective results are going to be really difficult for Russia at best if not outright destructive. And it was all voluntary.
      - hef19898 5y ago
        Pretty good summary. Personally, I would have thought that Putin is smarter than this, I really did. Dangerous, deeply undemocratic for sure, but not stupid. He played the West, and NATO, for years as he pleased. He created opportunities for Russia and China that didn't even remotely exist before. And then he threw all that away for a pointless war, one he might very well be loosing, a war that will only drive even more of hos direct neighbors into the arms of NATO. A war that also creates the global climate that those countries can, without any big problems, actually join NATO. All that while isolating his country, destroying his legacy and utterly ruining Russia's economy, to a point where he might very well throw Russia back to the early 90s. No idea why he thought any of that was worth the risk...
curiousgal 5y ago
This is genuinely not an attempt at flamewar but why can't civilians just leave? Russia is obviously going to win. It's the same with Palestenians, they obviously have not and will not win against Israel. The logical thing to do is to leave, suffer but be sure that your kids will have it better. But I reckon this isn't about logic?
- aaronbrethorst 5y ago
  Leave where and leave how? In both cases.
  - grujicd 5y ago
    Also, if you try to leave as military able men you’re in danger from both sides. One considering you a threat, the other a traitor and deserter, even if you’re just a civilian. Very bad place to be with no good options.
- vore 5y ago
  First off, I think saying "But I reckon this isn't about logic?" feels a tad incendiary and not particularly charitable to the people in these situations. To the point you're making though, I don't think it's so straightforward in all cases. If you're not well off and your life is being completely uprooted either way, it's a much more complex calculus than just, say, going to Poland.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > This is genuinely not an attempt at flamewar but why can't civilians just leave? They are. I think the count is up to two million or something. > Russia is obviously going to win. That's not so obvious. For instance: the US failed to win against much weaker opponents than the Ukrainians. > The logical thing to do is to leave, suffer but be sure that your kids will have it better. But I reckon this isn't about logic? Or it is about logic, but your "logic" is too shallow of an analysis.
  - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

alephnan 5y ago

> It's so incredibly sad to see this playing out exactly as many predicted The narrative started out that Putin is a dog backed into a corner, therefore he is bluffing and won’t actually invade. The story was also that he has the most to lose. Maybe the premise was correct, but the conclusion hasn’t been proven valid yet.

shmageggy 5y ago
There has been a lot of hopeful, and daresay wishful thinking so far, but even Boris Johnson was warning of this potentiality a couple of days into the invasion, and I doubt that thought had only just occurred. > ...his only instinct is going to be to double down and to try and ‘Grozny-fy’ Kyiv, if you know what I mean. And to reduce it to [rubble] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/mar/01/uk-politics-live-dominic-raab-russia-war-crimes-warning-ukraine-invasion https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/mar/01/uk-pol...
neuronic 5y ago
Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology (unite the ethnically Russian people). Add to that miscommunication within all sectors of government just to please your superiors and that's how you arrive at the, sorry, shit tier decision making surrounding this entire war. Anyone with half a brain should have seen the economic and geopolitical disaster resulting from this. And I firmly believe that many in military, intelligence, economy etc. DID SEE IT. But talking about it was never accepted and harshly punished. This war has ended Russia as we know it and will make it just another vassal of China. It's interesting and terrifying to observe the new fascist "Z" propaganda being pushed by Putin as well...
- thaumasiotes 5y ago
  > Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology This is the only type of rationality. What are you imagining when you say "objectively rational"? > Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Being rational as defined by your personal ideology is what economic models postulate when they assume rationality.
  - alephnan 5y ago
    Yes and otherwise the prisoner’s dilemma wouldn’t be a thing.
  - neuronic 5y ago
    > This is the only type of rationality. What are you imagining when you say "objectively rational"? I really disagree. For starters, I would put "not tank your economy into the stone age" firmly into the objectively rational category of thinking. How can this war ever be "worth it" for Putin? Ukrainians will never accept the occupation force and RUSSIA DOESNT EVEN HAVE ONE to begin with. They cannot at all maintain an occupation in the Ukraine. Incapable. This was a spear-head blitzkrieg operation aimed at replacing Selenskij within a week that was poorly planned and immediately failed and now they are completely and utterly screwed. Putin made this decision based off bad information fed to him - a downside when suppressing your subordinates, keeping bootlickers around and punishing differing opinions. The objective results are going to be really difficult for Russia at best if not outright destructive. And it was all voluntary.
    - hef19898 5y ago
      Pretty good summary. Personally, I would have thought that Putin is smarter than this, I really did. Dangerous, deeply undemocratic for sure, but not stupid. He played the West, and NATO, for years as he pleased. He created opportunities for Russia and China that didn't even remotely exist before. And then he threw all that away for a pointless war, one he might very well be loosing, a war that will only drive even more of hos direct neighbors into the arms of NATO. A war that also creates the global climate that those countries can, without any big problems, actually join NATO. All that while isolating his country, destroying his legacy and utterly ruining Russia's economy, to a point where he might very well throw Russia back to the early 90s. No idea why he thought any of that was worth the risk...

curiousgal 5y ago

This is genuinely not an attempt at flamewar but why can't civilians just leave? Russia is obviously going to win. It's the same with Palestenians, they obviously have not and will not win against Israel. The logical thing to do is to leave, suffer but be sure that your kids will have it better. But I reckon this isn't about logic?

aaronbrethorst 5y ago
Leave where and leave how? In both cases.
- grujicd 5y ago
  Also, if you try to leave as military able men you’re in danger from both sides. One considering you a threat, the other a traitor and deserter, even if you’re just a civilian. Very bad place to be with no good options.
vore 5y ago
First off, I think saying "But I reckon this isn't about logic?" feels a tad incendiary and not particularly charitable to the people in these situations. To the point you're making though, I don't think it's so straightforward in all cases. If you're not well off and your life is being completely uprooted either way, it's a much more complex calculus than just, say, going to Poland.
tablespoon 5y ago
> This is genuinely not an attempt at flamewar but why can't civilians just leave? They are. I think the count is up to two million or something. > Russia is obviously going to win. That's not so obvious. For instance: the US failed to win against much weaker opponents than the Ukrainians. > The logical thing to do is to leave, suffer but be sure that your kids will have it better. But I reckon this isn't about logic? Or it is about logic, but your "logic" is too shallow of an analysis.
- ChuckNorris89 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]