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As I've said elsewhere: Russia has chosen a path to becoming a Chinese vassal state. They're going to be China's Saudi Arabia more or less.
by api 5y ago
As I've said elsewhere: Russia has chosen a path to becoming a Chinese vassal state. They're going to be China's Saudi Arabia more or less.
- bryant 5y agoIndeed, we're basically watching the real-time implosion of a super-power (if Russia could've been called that), and Chinese institutions will own just about every bit of intangible (and soon tangible) infrastructure that matters. In his drive to reconstruct the USSR, Putin may have just given that mandate for a communist super-power and counterbalance to the United States to the CCP instead.
- tonguez 5y ago>Indeed, we're basically watching the real-time implosion of a super-power Aren't we basically watching Russia conquer Ukraine?
- BobbyJo 5y agoWe are watching them attack Ukraine. Whether or not they'll be able to conquer it is up in the air, and seeing how things are going, I'd bet against it.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoWhy would Europe not admit Ukraine's neutrality once Kyiv falls, now that we know neither the EU nor the US wants to intervene? Europe has clearly stated they'll continue to pay for Russia'a natgas even at €120/MWh, which will fund Russia's war for quite some time.
- BobbyJo 5y agoIf winning was simply about money and having someone in a building somewhere claiming to run things, then you might have a point. Also we'd have to make significant revisions to history.
- johannes1234321 5y agoIn a way less successful way than expected and while getting their economy squashed in response.
- Mikeb85 5y agoYou haven't been watching the war, have you? Russia can't even take Kyiv or Kharkiv even though they're pretty close to the Belarus and Russian borders...
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoSo far. One can be surprised they haven't taken these cities earlier, but I wouldn't bet Ukraine won't accept Putin's requests at some point in exchange for the end of the war. (commitment not to enter NATO/Europe + demilitarization + recognition of Crimea being part of Russia + independence of Donetsk and Luhansk republics). Neither NATO nor Europe wants to intervene and China will continue to support Russia to compensate for the sanctions.
- sidibe 5y agoThere is no way Ukraine accepts the same demands that Russia had at the start of the war. I think the most they'll give is recognize the territory Russia or separatists had at the start of the war, and that's only if Russia makes serious push on central Kyiv. No way they give up on NATO at this point knowing Russia could just do it again in a few years
- Mikeb85 5y agoI'm optimistic the Ukrainians will hold on longer than oligarch and military support for Putin...
- birdyrooster 5y agoIf NATO wasn't confident that Ukraine would stop Russia, they would have already changed tactics.
- s1artibartfast 5y agoWhy change tactics when things are working out for NATO The longer and more devastating the war, the better. Ukraine doesn't have to win for a NATO victory, russia just has to be damaged militarily and fanatically.
- inglor_cz 5y agoTrying to conquer it, but failing badly. This is a war of attrition where Ukraine gets enormous supplies from rich Western countries for free, but Russia cannot replenish any equipment loss. No one will sell them new Soviet-style helicopters and fighter jets that their pilots are qualified to fly. Every piece of heavy equipment that is destroyed with Javelins, NLAWs and Stingers is an irreplaceable loss for the attacking army. Unlike defense, you cannot sustain your attack if your offensive equipment gets blown into pieces or runs out of fuel. This will end in a collapse of massive proportions.
- fallingknife 5y agoCould be China to the rescue here, and Ukraine turns into the first proxy war between the US and China.
- thehappypm 5y agoIf China aids Russia they may see the same sanctions Russia does, the CCP above all else wants the Chinese GDP to continue to grow. Maybe in 50 years if China becomes a wealthy nation they might start throwing stones but for now, they benefit from playing both sides and letting Russia get weakened and desperate.
- fallingknife 5y agoWe can't sanction China like that. We need too much of what they produce. The only thing that Russia produces that the West needs is oil and gas, which has not been sanctioned.
- kavalg 5y agoAlso wheat, some rare metals and maybe even electricity soon if they are able to retain control over Ukraine NPPs (well only if EU considers them green enough).
- thehappypm 5y ago
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- birdyrooster 5y agoNot yet, as they haven't conquered any part of Ukraine. If they stopped their offensive today, they would be pushed out in days.
- p_j_w 5y ago>super-power (if Russia could've been called that) Russia hasn't been a super power in 30 years IMO.
- antupis 5y agoYeah watch how ex-USSR states at central asia give FU to russia and choose China instead.
- zeruch 5y ago"if Russia could've been called that" Yes, they could have. For a long time, they absolutely were. In the sense that their arsenal is still operational and capable of mass death, it still is. But that is the only way that they remain a super-power.
- esotericimpl 5y ago
- pm90 5y agoThis doesn't make sense. Russia is more than just a petrostate to become vassalized. They have the largest nuclear arsenal and an advanced Military-Industrial Complex. Its true that they will be more dependent on Chinese financing but its unlikely that they will be beholden to China the same way Saudis are with the US.
- lallysingh 5y agoThe arsenal is a cost center, not an asset. The military industry can't hold an economy up, much the opposite, actually. Unless they start selling weapons to China in larger numbers than any sane country would to their neighbors, I don't see the value.
- monocasa 5y agoIt's an asset in that other countries either invading or dealing internally with civil wars get no fly zones instituted on them when they don't have nukes.
- munk-a 5y agoThat's true - but how does that put bread on the table? (With the possible exception of invading other countries to steal their bread - which we can see isn't working out great for them right now).
- monocasa 5y agoThey have plenty of bread, they're a net exporter of food. They also have money, Europe is still paying for natural gas. They also have arms, they're the world's second largest arms dealer, only behind the US.
- type0 5y ago> They have plenty of bread, they're a net exporter of food. Bread, soon that will be the only thing they will be able to eat. And as we speak they are destroying bread factories of Ukranian people. There goes a joke, the Russian finds Aladdin's Magic Lamp. The Genie comes out and says: you have only one wish, I'll grant anything and the Ukrainian gets double of the same wish. The Russian thinks, then says: poke my eye out.
- blibble 5y agoI'd love to be a fly on the wall of Putin's office when it finally dawns on him that this is all he's accomplished
- jopsen 5y agoIt's an interesting hypothesis. But many things could happen..
- elefanten 5y agoCertainly a trajectory that looks and feels very likely now. But if China tries to wrap the cord too tight around Russia... tries to salami slice Siberia or something like that... it may find itself the prime target of Russia's ire. And the ballistic missile flight times between Russia and China are a little bit of a different story than US-Russia.
- morpheos137 5y agoThe only case that China would be interested in Siberia (and it is extremely far fetched) is if Russia became an enemy state that refused to trade with China. Otherwise China can get whatever it wants from Siberia from mutually beneficial trade. I will also note for thousands of years that China except for the brief period when it was a part of the Mongol empire has never expanded beyond its basic territory, i.e. limited by the extent of rice agriculture. These memes (Putin is in it for the money, China covets Siberia) are basically Reddit tier thinking in my opinion. Reality is quite a bit different.
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