11 ms·
China-Russia trade has surged as countries grow closer
- api 5y agoAs I've said elsewhere: Russia has chosen a path to becoming a Chinese vassal state. They're going to be China's Saudi Arabia more or less.
- bryant 5y agoIndeed, we're basically watching the real-time implosion of a super-power (if Russia could've been called that), and Chinese institutions will own just about every bit of intangible (and soon tangible) infrastructure that matters. In his drive to reconstruct the USSR, Putin may have just given that mandate for a communist super-power and counterbalance to the United States to the CCP instead.
- tonguez 5y ago>Indeed, we're basically watching the real-time implosion of a super-power Aren't we basically watching Russia conquer Ukraine?
- BobbyJo 5y agoWe are watching them attack Ukraine. Whether or not they'll be able to conquer it is up in the air, and seeing how things are going, I'd bet against it.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoWhy would Europe not admit Ukraine's neutrality once Kyiv falls, now that we know neither the EU nor the US wants to intervene? Europe has clearly stated they'll continue to pay for Russia'a natgas even at €120/MWh, which will fund Russia's war for quite some time.
- BobbyJo 5y agoIf winning was simply about money and having someone in a building somewhere claiming to run things, then you might have a point. Also we'd have to make significant revisions to history.
- johannes1234321 5y agoIn a way less successful way than expected and while getting their economy squashed in response.
- Mikeb85 5y agoYou haven't been watching the war, have you? Russia can't even take Kyiv or Kharkiv even though they're pretty close to the Belarus and Russian borders...
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoSo far. One can be surprised they haven't taken these cities earlier, but I wouldn't bet Ukraine won't accept Putin's requests at some point in exchange for the end of the war. (commitment not to enter NATO/Europe + demilitarization + recognition of Crimea being part of Russia + independence of Donetsk and Luhansk republics). Neither NATO nor Europe wants to intervene and China will continue to support Russia to compensate for the sanctions.
- sidibe 5y agoThere is no way Ukraine accepts the same demands that Russia had at the start of the war. I think the most they'll give is recognize the territory Russia or separatists had at the start of the war, and that's only if Russia makes serious push on central Kyiv. No way they give up on NATO at this point knowing Russia could just do it again in a few years
- Mikeb85 5y agoI'm optimistic the Ukrainians will hold on longer than oligarch and military support for Putin...
- birdyrooster 5y agoIf NATO wasn't confident that Ukraine would stop Russia, they would have already changed tactics.
- s1artibartfast 5y agoWhy change tactics when things are working out for NATO The longer and more devastating the war, the better. Ukraine doesn't have to win for a NATO victory, russia just has to be damaged militarily and fanatically.
- inglor_cz 5y agoTrying to conquer it, but failing badly. This is a war of attrition where Ukraine gets enormous supplies from rich Western countries for free, but Russia cannot replenish any equipment loss. No one will sell them new Soviet-style helicopters and fighter jets that their pilots are qualified to fly. Every piece of heavy equipment that is destroyed with Javelins, NLAWs and Stingers is an irreplaceable loss for the attacking army. Unlike defense, you cannot sustain your attack if your offensive equipment gets blown into pieces or runs out of fuel. This will end in a collapse of massive proportions.
- fallingknife 5y agoCould be China to the rescue here, and Ukraine turns into the first proxy war between the US and China.
- thehappypm 5y agoIf China aids Russia they may see the same sanctions Russia does, the CCP above all else wants the Chinese GDP to continue to grow. Maybe in 50 years if China becomes a wealthy nation they might start throwing stones but for now, they benefit from playing both sides and letting Russia get weakened and desperate.
- fallingknife 5y agoWe can't sanction China like that. We need too much of what they produce. The only thing that Russia produces that the West needs is oil and gas, which has not been sanctioned.
- kavalg 5y agoAlso wheat, some rare metals and maybe even electricity soon if they are able to retain control over Ukraine NPPs (well only if EU considers them green enough).
- thehappypm 5y ago
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- birdyrooster 5y agoNot yet, as they haven't conquered any part of Ukraine. If they stopped their offensive today, they would be pushed out in days.
- p_j_w 5y ago>super-power (if Russia could've been called that) Russia hasn't been a super power in 30 years IMO.
- antupis 5y agoYeah watch how ex-USSR states at central asia give FU to russia and choose China instead.
- zeruch 5y ago"if Russia could've been called that" Yes, they could have. For a long time, they absolutely were. In the sense that their arsenal is still operational and capable of mass death, it still is. But that is the only way that they remain a super-power.
- esotericimpl 5y ago
- pm90 5y agoThis doesn't make sense. Russia is more than just a petrostate to become vassalized. They have the largest nuclear arsenal and an advanced Military-Industrial Complex. Its true that they will be more dependent on Chinese financing but its unlikely that they will be beholden to China the same way Saudis are with the US.
- lallysingh 5y agoThe arsenal is a cost center, not an asset. The military industry can't hold an economy up, much the opposite, actually. Unless they start selling weapons to China in larger numbers than any sane country would to their neighbors, I don't see the value.
- monocasa 5y agoIt's an asset in that other countries either invading or dealing internally with civil wars get no fly zones instituted on them when they don't have nukes.
- munk-a 5y agoThat's true - but how does that put bread on the table? (With the possible exception of invading other countries to steal their bread - which we can see isn't working out great for them right now).
- monocasa 5y agoThey have plenty of bread, they're a net exporter of food. They also have money, Europe is still paying for natural gas. They also have arms, they're the world's second largest arms dealer, only behind the US.
- type0 5y ago> They have plenty of bread, they're a net exporter of food. Bread, soon that will be the only thing they will be able to eat. And as we speak they are destroying bread factories of Ukranian people. There goes a joke, the Russian finds Aladdin's Magic Lamp. The Genie comes out and says: you have only one wish, I'll grant anything and the Ukrainian gets double of the same wish. The Russian thinks, then says: poke my eye out.
- blibble 5y agoI'd love to be a fly on the wall of Putin's office when it finally dawns on him that this is all he's accomplished
- jopsen 5y agoIt's an interesting hypothesis. But many things could happen..
- elefanten 5y agoCertainly a trajectory that looks and feels very likely now. But if China tries to wrap the cord too tight around Russia... tries to salami slice Siberia or something like that... it may find itself the prime target of Russia's ire. And the ballistic missile flight times between Russia and China are a little bit of a different story than US-Russia.
- morpheos137 5y agoThe only case that China would be interested in Siberia (and it is extremely far fetched) is if Russia became an enemy state that refused to trade with China. Otherwise China can get whatever it wants from Siberia from mutually beneficial trade. I will also note for thousands of years that China except for the brief period when it was a part of the Mongol empire has never expanded beyond its basic territory, i.e. limited by the extent of rice agriculture. These memes (Putin is in it for the money, China covets Siberia) are basically Reddit tier thinking in my opinion. Reality is quite a bit different.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- cbg0 5y agoChina has placed themselves in a very good position as they are now pretty much the only ones that can sell technology to Russia, and, because of Russia's pariah status, I think that some of those contracts for energy that were put in place during the Olympics will be renegotiated in China's favor, as Russia has put themselves in a position where they can be squeezed by the remaining states that are willing to do business with them.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoChina is smart enough not to weaken their allies, when they need them to weight against their rivals. See what they're doing with Iran: https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220119-china-plays-discreet-but-critical-role-in-iran-nuclear-negotiations https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220119-china-plays... Maybe the US should do the same with their European allies (by encouraging them build an independent defense instead of toying with each country's interest at the expense of a strong EU that could keep Russia in check and allow the US to fully focus on China).
- tablespoon 5y ago>> I think that some of those contracts for energy that were put in place during the Olympics will be renegotiated in China's favor, as Russia has put themselves in a position where they can be squeezed by the remaining states that are willing to do business with them. > China is smart enough not to weaken their allies, when they need them to weight against their rivals. This. I think China's going to chase after after raw power and advantage, not a derivative like those things like money. Money is for little people to scramble after (and even billionaires are little people at the scale of great powers).
- ASalazarMX 5y agoWill we have wars by double-proxy in the future? This is starting to look like US thru NATO vs. China thru Russia.
- jansen555 5y ago
- mnau 5y agoFun fact, China has greater gdp per capita than Russia(nominal, Russia is still ahead in in ppp). Russia gdp per capita for 2020 was $10,127 China gdp per capita for 2020 was $10,500 Their descend into mineral rich vassal state of china seems inevitable. I wonder how much effect the economic transformation/collapse in the 90s had. They lost the status, economy, respect/fear, rule of law. Military and resources is about the only thing left. And military doesn’t look too great. Anyway, lesson for the future: don’t rely on “invisible hand” and optimism to transform economy. China did it correctly, Russia didn’t.
- beebmam 5y agoThere are a near-infinite number of reasons to explain differences in economic outcomes between these two countries. How confident are you that the conclusion you've come to here is the truth?
- rich_sasha 5y agoInvisible hand might work in a liberal capitalist law-abiding society. Russia in 90s lacked most of these.
- mnau 5y agoTrust me, most of former eastern block hasn’t been much better. Mine country certainly lacked it. There were no laws against most of the stuff that happened. You took a loan and had no collateral? Perfectly fine. 90s was the second biggest theft of last century(after commie nationalization/theft). All wealth concentrated in hands of few who then use the economic power as a leverage over politics. I am pretty sure we got saved by EU, otherwise whole eastern block would be similar to Ukraine/Russia/Moldavia. EU forced a lot of laws and reforms that really helped and were needed.
- travelingteach 5y agoI've lived in both and the difference between them is even starker in person. So much of Russias wealth is concentrated in so few hands. The median Chinese is doing so immeasurably better and that gap will only grow. Russias a nuclear power which counts for a lot on the world stage but economically the country is in terrible shape even before the sanctions.
- neonate 5y agohttps://archive.ph/aKqBB https://archive.ph/aKqBB
- ngcc_hk 5y agoSomeone has pointed out that in Qing dynasty china has about 12m sq Km not only 9.7m sq Km, mostly lost to Russia through unfair treaties (possibly except the first one). Good luck when Russia is a junior partner.
- type0 5y agoChina will suck Russia dry and will probably buy their far east territories in a decade or two.
- djohnston 5y agoChina is going to take all the resources Russia can offer and benefit form it, Russia has just cemented itself as a second rate state on par with those in Africa that China is currently plundering. Congratulations Putin, you played yourself.
- akomtu 5y agoNot sure why it's downvoted. Russia will pay with land, and lots of it, not just resources. China has a unique opportunity to disarm the crazy bear.
- type0 5y ago> Russia will pay with land, and lots of it, not just resources. China has a unique opportunity to disarm the crazy bear. Yeah, China wants to buy that far east badly in a couple of decades. The Bear is rabid, we all seen it and that diagnosis is terminal.
- 1MachineElf 5y agoMany comments here are speculating on future China exploitation of Russia as a result of this situation. On Twitter there has been a discussion about several high-profile Russian government and private individuals who may each have a motive to assassinate Putin. Unfortunately I couldn't find the link to it, but as an example, here are a couple recent incidents[0][1] showing a divide between Putin and the FSB. I wonder if risk of this China-Russia relation will contribute to any such motivations, and if so, to what degree. [0] https://youtu.be/o9A-u8EoWcI https://youtu.be/o9A-u8EoWcI [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-double-agent-foil-assassination-zelensky-claim-2022-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-double-agent-... EDIT: Poignant comment from the YouTube video showing an exchange between the FSB head and Putin: "Sergei is giving off the vibes that Putin is the only one who knows where his wife and kids are"
- type0 5y ago> EDIT: Poignant comment from the YouTube video showing an exchange between the FSB head and Putin: "Sergei is giving off the vibes that Putin is the only one who knows where his wife and kids are" It's a spectacle, most of the stuff Putin puts on video are just smoke and mirrors
- cryptonector 5y agoWe just might have to accept that Ukraine can't join NATO, or even the EU.
- type0 5y agoMost Russians are still under illusion that these sanctions will end as soon as the "special operation" ends.