7 ms·

1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub

95 points by novateg 5y ago

pfraze 5y ago
This is roughly 50% what the Ruble was trading at prior to the war
- sgjohnson 5y ago
  20% if you make it pre-Crimean invasion Ruble
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
benlumen 5y ago
That's a 50% currency devaluation in a fortnight while the country's main export is still barely in the crosshairs. Russia might really be done.
- djfobbz 5y ago
  Unless Russia decides to completely move off of "petrodollar"...they've already started to back RUBLE with gold and one of their largest oil suppliers, Rosneft, has moved to EURO as their default currency.
  - benlumen 5y ago
    The Ruble has devalued against the Euro by almost exactly the same amount. What am I missing?
  - jonathan-adly 5y ago
    If they backed their ruble with gold, the war would be over in a week. The Russian economy is functioning (barely) because they can print as much rubles as they need to pay the soldiers and factory workers. "Easy money, easy wars, hard money, hard wars".
  - sgjohnson 5y ago
    They moved away from “petrodollar” a while ago. But what difference does it make?
- belter 5y ago
  If you are on the market for Russian weapons they are really cheap right now.
Bud 5y ago
I remember when I visited the USSR in 1990 (it was still the USSR at that point, barely), it was around 8 rubles to the dollar, and the buying power of those 8 rubles was very large indeed. I think I took a total of $200 US on the trip, and I was not even able to spend it all, despite being in the USSR for a couple weeks. There simply was not enough to buy that anyone would want to buy, at least not things I could take back on the plane. I ended up getting 9 very nice fur hats, for that reason, to give out to family and friends. I still have mine! It's very warm and nice.
- rwmj 5y ago
  I also went there (and Ukraine) in 1990. I remember the official rate was 4 rubles to the UK pound, but on the street outside the hotel it was 15 without even bargaining.
dvt 5y ago
And the MOEX is still closed (for more than a week now). For all the downsides of crypto, you can see the upside of decentralization here.
- benlumen 5y ago
  To whom? Lawless despots?
  - sgjohnson 5y ago
    Everyone.
    - benlumen 5y ago
      Call me old-fashioned but I could argue that "everyone" benefits from a world where we can still economically isolate genocidal regimes. We do away with this power at our peril.
      - jonathan-adly 5y ago
        I 100% agree, now who you want to be the judge of bad/good wars? The UN w/ veto power for big countries? Maybe the international war crime court where "the US government has said that it will not cooperate with the ICC and has threatened retaliatory steps against ICC staff and member countries should the court investigate US or allied country citizens" [0]? Don't get me wrong, as an American citizen, I enjoy my privilege very much. But, if I didn't have this privilege, I would fight as hell for amoral money or at least a fair international court. 0. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/02/qa-international-criminal-court-and-united-states#8 https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/02/qa-international-crimina...
- tmp_anon_22 5y ago
  Is crypto decentralized if all practical exchanges for ordinary users are highly centralized?
  - 5y ago
sfblah 5y ago
The site says you can’t even do the transfer.
- qwertox 5y ago
  After having watched this I'm not even surprised: "A world without blockchain - How (inter)national money transfers works" [0] [0] https://media.ccc.de/v/33c3-8315-a_world_without_blockchain https://media.ccc.de/v/33c3-8315-a_world_without_blockchain
  - sfblah 5y ago
    You do realize the issue isn't technological (blockchain is a technology after all), it's regulatory. The reason people say blockchain "solves" this "problem" is that it renders regulation much harder through cryptography. This is why I would expect cryptocurrencies to "come to a bad end," to quote Warren Buffett. Government regulation exists for a reason.
sgjohnson 5y ago
This probably means that the “black market” rate is even higher. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the street rate for buying USD within Russia is 200 Rubles to the dollar.
- jupp0r 5y ago
  This reminds me of my honeymoon vacation. My wife and our baby daughter were visiting friends in Argentina. They told us to bring our whole vacation budget in 100 EUR bills and they'd exchange it for us into Pesos on the black market at a much better rate. The physical bills were really cumbersome to carry around and keep safe - I believe the highest denomination was around 10 EUR. This is when I understood the privilege of living in a relatively stable monetary system with a highly valued currency.
  - jafoi 5y ago
    Living in such a system is not a matter of privilege - Argentinians have consistently made voting choices that have put them in that position.
  - nine_zeros 5y ago
    > This is when I understood the privilege of living in a relatively stable monetary system with a highly valued currency. Very true. I am grateful to be living in America where people are valued and it is hard for autocrats to stay in power (Trump certainly came close). A life lived in a pariah state is a life wasted.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - oytis 5y ago
    Russian monetary system was pretty stable by the way. It's not about financial institutions doing a bad job, it's just a dictator not accountable to anyone waging wars he can't afford.
- Aulig 5y ago
foobarian 5y ago
Let's see, a country punished for its aggression, leading to crazy hyperinflation, misery, rise of right-wing leadership... What gets me is I still can't figure out what Putin's motivation is. Is this really better than having left things alone?
- dvt 5y ago
  > What gets me is I still can't figure out what Putin's motivation is. Is this really better than having left things alone? He's the leader of a quasi-superpower trying to forge a legacy. History books are littered with guys like him.
  - brendoelfrendo 5y ago
    The mind boggling thing is that he could have had a legacy. He steered Russia through a period of pretty consistent growth after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He could have been that guy, the guy who helped Russia's economy recover and made lots of Russian billionaires very happy. He's not a good man, and his legacy would always be colored by his treatment of his neighboring nations and his political opponents, but he'd definitely make it into the history books. Going down as an aggressor and turning his entire country into a geopolitical pariah seems bizarre.
    - dvt 5y ago
      > Going down as an aggressor and turning his entire country into a geopolitical pariah seems bizarre. I watched this Guardian interview last week where a historian described Putin as a relic of the 19th century: a time where might made right. And I'm tempted to agree. He doesn't see the world with nuance; and doesn't give any credence to the concept of "soft power"—he's a realpolitik hardliner stuck in the Cold War.
  - edgyquant 5y ago
    >Quasi-superpower He wishes, he’s the leader of a midsize nation longing for the days when it was considered a superpower.
- 5y ago
101008 5y ago
* smells like Argentinian spirit *
- mananaysiempre 5y ago
  I only hope it won’t smell like Weimar spirit... any more than it already does.
  - colechristensen 5y ago
    It worked for Germany because they were arguably the world leader (or close) in technology and all sorts of things in the early 20th century. Russia is not that today and can’t buy their way into success. They can’t win a war against a small neighbor, the only thing to fear is a desperation nuclear war, and that risk is quite small.
- abdusco 5y ago
  See also the free fall of Turkish Lira against USD in the last year (or 3, or 5). https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-try https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-try
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
herpderperator 5y ago
Some forex trading platforms let you get up to 400x leverage since currency is usually very stable. I'm sure it's restricted to certain currency pairs, but damn imagine getting caught on the wrong (or right!) side of that.
- jquery 5y ago
  Volatility didn't change overnight, I'm sure margin requirements for speculating on Rub increased dramatically in the run-up to the war. It's unlikely they allowed any margin at all on the eve of the invasion.
- cjbgkagh 5y ago
  I wonder if the higher interest rates offered by Russia lead to many people getting into carry trades that would now be blowing up. I wonder if there is a repeat of LTCM hiding somewhere.
yreg 5y ago
The spreads were very interesting during the weekend right after the invasion, while the markets were closed. I remember checking Revolut and it offered to buy USD for ~75 RUB and sell USD for ~140 RUB (there are no fees). Such uncertainty!
nine_zeros 5y ago
Of course Putin and cronies won't get affected and won't stop the war because they are old and have already lived a full life and they are still the richest Russians. The entire episode of Putin has convinced me that as a human organizational structure - Leaders must have an expiration date and there has to be a system to preemptively eject politicians from power. Of course, people in leadership positions will hate this.
- durnygbur 5y ago
  They will just have to accept a downgrade from dozens of yachts and penthouses to only a few of them (or even share a yacht!), from tens of billions of net worth to single billions. It feels like Americans cancelled the money they have printed since the outbreak of the pandemic with these sanctions.
- mywittyname 5y ago
  > Of course, people in leadership positions will hate this. I don't think so. If you look at political leadership in the USA, there are names that remain in power for decades. Henry Kissinger worked with every republican administration from Nixon to Bush Jr., and even met with Trump a few times. One need not be president to wield sizable influence.
pier25 5y ago
Russia seems to be on the way of North Korea. Hopefully it won't come to that.
whatshisface 5y ago
I have a few questions: 1. If I had shorted RUB on US intelligence reports leading up to the invasion, would I be able to collect, or would illiquidity stop me from being able to obtain RUB to cover my shorts? 2. What does this correspond to in terms of what will happen to their economy? Will everyone with savings be out half, while everything adjusts to the new prices and the fixed value of Russia's natural resources simply re-denominates into 2023 rubles? Too bad they halted stock trading, otherwise we'd know what the future expectations for profit are. 3. Does this indicate anything beyond A. a rush to move money out of the country and/or B. an expectation that their government will be printing a lot of money?
- pzm3292 5y ago
  Read this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/shorts-who-called-russia-slump-find-cashing-out-is-the-hard-part https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/shorts-wh...
- traceroute66 5y ago
  > 1. If I had shorted RUB on US intelligence reports leading up to the invasion, would I be able to collect, or would illiquidity stop me from being able to obtain RUB to cover my shorts? The keyword you need to put into Mr Google is "B-book". Unless you: a) Are a big-cheese in the trading world; or b) Opened an account with the very very very very small number of brokers that are 100% A-Book You will almost certainly be trading on a B-book account. In a simplified nutshell, B-Book means that your order never goes anywhere near the market. Your trades are internalised by your broker, they are market makers for their own book, and they settle their trades internally. Your broker reduces their own internal risk on their B-book by (if necessary) making the necessary risk-reducing trades on the real market. So in essence, yes you would be able to "collect" because your broker would be doing the settlement internally. However, and its a BIG however. In exceptionally volatile markets such as Ukraine events, your broker will implement risk management procedures in order to prevent lots of clients blowing up their accounts and therefore exposing your broker to a large aggregated risk. Therefore unless you already had a trade in-play before risk management was enabled, its unlikely you'll be able to put on much now (at least not without a large margin requirement). I should say that all the foregoing applies soley to "day-trading" (i.e. CFDs, Spread Bets, Futures etc.). For equities ("stocks & shares") then then there is always external settlement.
LeifCarrotson 5y ago
As of yesterday, it was 1:112, already sharp decline in RUB value compared to pre-war/pre-sanction levels of ~1:80. Now it's 1:158. What changed in the last 24 hours? I'm no expert, but apparently, this lines up with Moody's downgrading of Russia's credit rating to Ca: > *Moody's said default risks had increased, and that foreign bondholders were likely to recoup only part of their investment.* > "The likely recovery for investors will be in line with the historical average, commensurate with a Ca rating," it said. "At the Ca rating level, the recovery expectations are at 35 to 65% (of face value)." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-russia-rating-ca-rise-default-risk-2022-03-06/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-russia-... This may also be related to American and European efforts to ban imports of Russian petroleum.
- linuxhansl 5y ago
  The possibility of stopping oil imports from Russia is putting additional pressure on the RUB - that's what I read at least.
- ABeeSea 5y ago
  Russia said they would pay foreign bond holders in rubles even if the bonds are owed in dollars and euros. The exchange rate would be set by the central bank. Most would consider this a default on the loans.
rapidlua 5y ago
This is fake. Sells at 105 right now. Edit: I have an account in a Russian bank and can purchase usd at this rate right now.
- relix 5y ago
  If that's fake, you can make an easy 50% profit by arbitraging it. If you are somehow practically unable to arbitrage it, then you just discovered the reason why the conversion rates are so different.
  - waffleiron 5y ago
    > If you are somehow practically unable to arbitrage it, On the Wise page it says "Sending money to RUB with Wise is temporarily stopped." So yeah, that's why the rates are so different.
- extropy 5y ago
  Could be that the marked is getting split because of the sanctions and internal prices are diverging. Similar in Soviet times there was a special internal rate that was very disconnected from international.
tdiff 5y ago
Please note MOEX is closed until Wednesday on bank holidays, so until then the rate is very rough approximation.
JohnTHaller 5y ago
1 USD = 34.8 RUB the day before Russia invaded Crimea in 2014
bick_nyers 5y ago
If the Russian people can't convert their Rubles to USD/Euro or buy products outside their country, does it really matter? Like, sure if they bought something overseas it might cost twice as much as before, but that does not necessarily imply that you have to adjust prices for products inside of Russia, as everyone still functionally has the same amount of money. Of course, this is without talking about all of the effects from being cut off from the global supply chain, which will certainly cause chaos on an economy. I guess what I am ultimately asking is, did the Ruble lose value, or did every other currency that isn't a Ruble gain value? Does the currency conversion rates actually represent purchasing power of currencies?
- whatshisface 5y ago
  Assuming this is the actual price of RUB, and not an artifact created by the illiquidity of RUB on sanction-impacted "retail investor" markets while the real money changes hands elsewhere (I have no reason to believe that, I am simply listing every possible scenario), this will stick around until long after the war is over. >I guess what I am ultimately asking is, did the Ruble lose value, or did every other currency that isn't a Ruble gain value? Foreigners with dollars will compete with Russians with rubles to buy local Russian goods, unless Russia disconnects itself from global trade. This will impact local prices, even the prices of raw natural resources, because the world is all one big market (unless Putin discovers the Juche Idea - but beware, even North Korea, one of the most isolated states on Earth, sells natural resources to China at prices at least somewhat tied to commodities markets.) Anything that involves imports to produce (this is a bigger category than you think, Russia does not make its own oilfield or farm equipment!) will be impacted even more inevitably. Things like Russian real estate could remain steady in RUB denominated price if Europeans are not allowed to compete with Russians to buy it, but wheat, tractors, things like that are going to become twice as expensive almost inevitably. Fortunately that will be counterbalanced by everyone's wages doubling (foreign firms compete with each other to hire Russians) unless, again, Putin disconnects from global trade. In that case, the biggest problem will be the availability or lack thereof of goods at any price.
banana_giraffe 5y ago
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR And it spiked to 174 earlier today.
travisporter 5y ago
Random thought is the symbol ₽ from wiki used or is it more like the INR (₹) that (in my experience) never really used
- hurflmurfl 5y ago
  It's used quite often on Russian web-sites nowadays. A few years ago it was pretty rare, with most sites just using the abbreviation "руб." (rub.). As for physical locations, those tend to use the abbreviation, possibly because there's more space on the paper price tag than there is on your mobile screen, but could also be due to some law or some tag printers not supporting this symbol, not sure.
dandanua 5y ago
Simpsons prediction https://youtube.com/watch?v=IYD9xu92zSg https://youtube.com/watch?v=IYD9xu92zSg
Raed667 5y ago
Can anyone explain the consequences of this coupled with the list of "unfriendly countries" that Russia just announced? [0] > Russian citizens and companies, the state itself [..] that have foreign exchange obligations to foreign creditors from the list of unfriendly countries will be able to pay them in rubles [0] https://tass.com/politics/1418197 https://tass.com/politics/1418197
- ABeeSea 5y ago
  It’s a fancy way for Russia to say that it is defaulting on its foreign debt and attempting to pay it with monopoly money.
jmyeet 5y ago
Despite the sanitized name, "economic sanctions" are violence and collective punishment. Average Russians will be (and already are) take the brunt of this as their savings are destroyed by inflation and/or seized (the Russian "parliament" passed a law requiring all foreign currency payments and bank accounts to have 80% converted to rubles). Lack of food security and access to basic medicines will kill people here, just like it did in Iraq and is doing in Iran and Venezuela. Speaking of Venezuela, all of a sudden the US has warmed to the idea of easing or removing Venezuelan sactions [1] since its a large oil producer. The point is that none of these sanctions are about principle. It's purely self-serving to US strategic interests and the protection of capital (much like Shell buying discounted Russian oil [2]). [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-venezuela-discuss-easing-sanctions-make-little-progress-sources-2022-03-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-venezuela-discuss-... [2]: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/shell-defends-decision-to-buy-discounted-oil-from-russia.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/shell-defends-decision-to-bu...
- hackyhacky 5y ago
  It's true, and deeply unfair, that the Russian people will suffer for the mistakes of their leaders. That's always the way. I disagree, though, that the sanctions aren't about principle, even though they certainly serve a strategic interest as well. The sanctions are the only way, short of direct war, to influence a foreign nation.
  - sgjohnson 5y ago
    > It's true, and deeply unfair, that the Russian people will suffer for the mistakes of their leaders. One could argue that the Russian leadership is a mistake of the Russian people, so they are equally complicit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kELta9MLOzg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kELta9MLOzg It's RadioFreeEurope (a US funded project), so take it with a pinch of salt, but clearly, the average Russian is complicit in this.
    - hackyhacky 5y ago
      One could argue that the Russian leadership is a mistake of the Russian people, but that would be a silly argument, since it implies that Russians choose their leaders. Russia hasn't had free and fair elections in decades, and possibly ever. The fact that some average Russians do, in fact, support their leadership is likely due to (a) the the complete state control of media and (b) the absence of historical precedent in Russia for legitimate public disagreement with the state. In the West, we take some semblance of democracy, including free speech, for granted, but in Russia, democracy and free speech has never existed. Speaking out against your president is a foreign idea for any Russia who isn't well-versed in Western liberal ideals. The average Russians have no familiarity with ideas like "I support my country but not my president."
squarefoot 5y ago
One more sign that this has been planned, and they were prepared against sanctions, is that Russia has been growing their gold and foreign currency reserve for a very long time. https://qz.com/52623/russias-government-has-become-the-worlds-largest-buyer-of-gold-driven-by-fears-of-currency-cataclysm/ https://qz.com/52623/russias-government-has-become-the-world... https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?locations=RU https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?location...
- sgjohnson 5y ago
  So what? Most of their foreign reserves are frozen (as they are mostly held by foreign banks), and there’s nobody they can sell their gold to (without having to sell at a deep discount). Their $600bn paper reserves right now are probably not even worth $100bn.
mkr-hn 5y ago
Sir Patrick Stewart buying Russian currency as a bit: "ay, there's the rub"
npteljes 5y ago
USD-HUF (and EUR-HUF) is also bonkers https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=HUF https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=HUF
- waffleiron 5y ago
  PLN going through the same.
frnkng 5y ago
Hopefully I got something wrong but to me it looks like evil genius from hell: The drop of the ruble made the war much cheaper for Russia. 1. They pay their soldiers in rub, machinery was already paid or is bought from domestic suppliers in RUB. 2. Russia earns eur or usd by selling oil and gas to the EU. They earn more rub because the rate decreased so much. As a result: Russia silently decreased the payment of their soldiers by the exact amount that the ruble fell. A truely evil plan. Fighting your brother nation and not even paying for it. The more the rub falls, the cheaper the war gets for them.
- etcet 5y ago
  The soldiers on the battleship Potemkim weren't treated well either.

1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub

95 points by novateg 5y ago

pfraze 5y ago

This is roughly 50% what the Ruble was trading at prior to the war

sgjohnson 5y ago
20% if you make it pre-Crimean invasion Ruble

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

benlumen 5y ago

That's a 50% currency devaluation in a fortnight while the country's main export is still barely in the crosshairs. Russia might really be done.

djfobbz 5y ago
Unless Russia decides to completely move off of "petrodollar"...they've already started to back RUBLE with gold and one of their largest oil suppliers, Rosneft, has moved to EURO as their default currency.
- benlumen 5y ago
  The Ruble has devalued against the Euro by almost exactly the same amount. What am I missing?
- jonathan-adly 5y ago
  If they backed their ruble with gold, the war would be over in a week. The Russian economy is functioning (barely) because they can print as much rubles as they need to pay the soldiers and factory workers. "Easy money, easy wars, hard money, hard wars".
- sgjohnson 5y ago
  They moved away from “petrodollar” a while ago. But what difference does it make?
belter 5y ago
If you are on the market for Russian weapons they are really cheap right now.

Bud 5y ago

I remember when I visited the USSR in 1990 (it was still the USSR at that point, barely), it was around 8 rubles to the dollar, and the buying power of those 8 rubles was very large indeed. I think I took a total of $200 US on the trip, and I was not even able to spend it all, despite being in the USSR for a couple weeks. There simply was not enough to buy that anyone would want to buy, at least not things I could take back on the plane. I ended up getting 9 very nice fur hats, for that reason, to give out to family and friends. I still have mine! It's very warm and nice.

rwmj 5y ago
I also went there (and Ukraine) in 1990. I remember the official rate was 4 rubles to the UK pound, but on the street outside the hotel it was 15 without even bargaining.

dvt 5y ago

And the MOEX is still closed (for more than a week now). For all the downsides of crypto, you can see the upside of decentralization here.

benlumen 5y ago
To whom? Lawless despots?
- sgjohnson 5y ago
  Everyone.
  - benlumen 5y ago
    Call me old-fashioned but I could argue that "everyone" benefits from a world where we can still economically isolate genocidal regimes. We do away with this power at our peril.
    - jonathan-adly 5y ago
      I 100% agree, now who you want to be the judge of bad/good wars? The UN w/ veto power for big countries? Maybe the international war crime court where "the US government has said that it will not cooperate with the ICC and has threatened retaliatory steps against ICC staff and member countries should the court investigate US or allied country citizens" [0]? Don't get me wrong, as an American citizen, I enjoy my privilege very much. But, if I didn't have this privilege, I would fight as hell for amoral money or at least a fair international court. 0. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/02/qa-international-criminal-court-and-united-states#8 https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/02/qa-international-crimina...
tmp_anon_22 5y ago
Is crypto decentralized if all practical exchanges for ordinary users are highly centralized?
- 5y ago

sfblah 5y ago

The site says you can’t even do the transfer.

qwertox 5y ago
After having watched this I'm not even surprised: "A world without blockchain - How (inter)national money transfers works" [0] [0] https://media.ccc.de/v/33c3-8315-a_world_without_blockchain https://media.ccc.de/v/33c3-8315-a_world_without_blockchain
- sfblah 5y ago
  You do realize the issue isn't technological (blockchain is a technology after all), it's regulatory. The reason people say blockchain "solves" this "problem" is that it renders regulation much harder through cryptography. This is why I would expect cryptocurrencies to "come to a bad end," to quote Warren Buffett. Government regulation exists for a reason.

sgjohnson 5y ago

This probably means that the “black market” rate is even higher. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the street rate for buying USD within Russia is 200 Rubles to the dollar.

jupp0r 5y ago
This reminds me of my honeymoon vacation. My wife and our baby daughter were visiting friends in Argentina. They told us to bring our whole vacation budget in 100 EUR bills and they'd exchange it for us into Pesos on the black market at a much better rate. The physical bills were really cumbersome to carry around and keep safe - I believe the highest denomination was around 10 EUR. This is when I understood the privilege of living in a relatively stable monetary system with a highly valued currency.
- jafoi 5y ago
  Living in such a system is not a matter of privilege - Argentinians have consistently made voting choices that have put them in that position.
- nine_zeros 5y ago
  > This is when I understood the privilege of living in a relatively stable monetary system with a highly valued currency. Very true. I am grateful to be living in America where people are valued and it is hard for autocrats to stay in power (Trump certainly came close). A life lived in a pariah state is a life wasted.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- oytis 5y ago
  Russian monetary system was pretty stable by the way. It's not about financial institutions doing a bad job, it's just a dictator not accountable to anyone waging wars he can't afford.
Aulig 5y ago

foobarian 5y ago

Let's see, a country punished for its aggression, leading to crazy hyperinflation, misery, rise of right-wing leadership... What gets me is I still can't figure out what Putin's motivation is. Is this really better than having left things alone?

dvt 5y ago
> What gets me is I still can't figure out what Putin's motivation is. Is this really better than having left things alone? He's the leader of a quasi-superpower trying to forge a legacy. History books are littered with guys like him.
- brendoelfrendo 5y ago
  The mind boggling thing is that he could have had a legacy. He steered Russia through a period of pretty consistent growth after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He could have been that guy, the guy who helped Russia's economy recover and made lots of Russian billionaires very happy. He's not a good man, and his legacy would always be colored by his treatment of his neighboring nations and his political opponents, but he'd definitely make it into the history books. Going down as an aggressor and turning his entire country into a geopolitical pariah seems bizarre.
  - dvt 5y ago
    > Going down as an aggressor and turning his entire country into a geopolitical pariah seems bizarre. I watched this Guardian interview last week where a historian described Putin as a relic of the 19th century: a time where might made right. And I'm tempted to agree. He doesn't see the world with nuance; and doesn't give any credence to the concept of "soft power"—he's a realpolitik hardliner stuck in the Cold War.
- edgyquant 5y ago
  >Quasi-superpower He wishes, he’s the leader of a midsize nation longing for the days when it was considered a superpower.
5y ago

101008 5y ago

* smells like Argentinian spirit *

mananaysiempre 5y ago
I only hope it won’t smell like Weimar spirit... any more than it already does.
- colechristensen 5y ago
  It worked for Germany because they were arguably the world leader (or close) in technology and all sorts of things in the early 20th century. Russia is not that today and can’t buy their way into success. They can’t win a war against a small neighbor, the only thing to fear is a desperation nuclear war, and that risk is quite small.
abdusco 5y ago
See also the free fall of Turkish Lira against USD in the last year (or 3, or 5). https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-try https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-try

deleted 5y ago

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deleted 5y ago

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herpderperator 5y ago

Some forex trading platforms let you get up to 400x leverage since currency is usually very stable. I'm sure it's restricted to certain currency pairs, but damn imagine getting caught on the wrong (or right!) side of that.

jquery 5y ago
Volatility didn't change overnight, I'm sure margin requirements for speculating on Rub increased dramatically in the run-up to the war. It's unlikely they allowed any margin at all on the eve of the invasion.
cjbgkagh 5y ago
I wonder if the higher interest rates offered by Russia lead to many people getting into carry trades that would now be blowing up. I wonder if there is a repeat of LTCM hiding somewhere.

yreg 5y ago

The spreads were very interesting during the weekend right after the invasion, while the markets were closed. I remember checking Revolut and it offered to buy USD for ~75 RUB and sell USD for ~140 RUB (there are no fees). Such uncertainty!

nine_zeros 5y ago

Of course Putin and cronies won't get affected and won't stop the war because they are old and have already lived a full life and they are still the richest Russians. The entire episode of Putin has convinced me that as a human organizational structure - Leaders must have an expiration date and there has to be a system to preemptively eject politicians from power. Of course, people in leadership positions will hate this.

durnygbur 5y ago
They will just have to accept a downgrade from dozens of yachts and penthouses to only a few of them (or even share a yacht!), from tens of billions of net worth to single billions. It feels like Americans cancelled the money they have printed since the outbreak of the pandemic with these sanctions.
mywittyname 5y ago
> Of course, people in leadership positions will hate this. I don't think so. If you look at political leadership in the USA, there are names that remain in power for decades. Henry Kissinger worked with every republican administration from Nixon to Bush Jr., and even met with Trump a few times. One need not be president to wield sizable influence.

pier25 5y ago

Russia seems to be on the way of North Korea. Hopefully it won't come to that.

whatshisface 5y ago

I have a few questions: 1. If I had shorted RUB on US intelligence reports leading up to the invasion, would I be able to collect, or would illiquidity stop me from being able to obtain RUB to cover my shorts? 2. What does this correspond to in terms of what will happen to their economy? Will everyone with savings be out half, while everything adjusts to the new prices and the fixed value of Russia's natural resources simply re-denominates into 2023 rubles? Too bad they halted stock trading, otherwise we'd know what the future expectations for profit are. 3. Does this indicate anything beyond A. a rush to move money out of the country and/or B. an expectation that their government will be printing a lot of money?

pzm3292 5y ago
Read this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/shorts-who-called-russia-slump-find-cashing-out-is-the-hard-part https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/shorts-wh...
traceroute66 5y ago
> 1. If I had shorted RUB on US intelligence reports leading up to the invasion, would I be able to collect, or would illiquidity stop me from being able to obtain RUB to cover my shorts? The keyword you need to put into Mr Google is "B-book". Unless you: a) Are a big-cheese in the trading world; or b) Opened an account with the very very very very small number of brokers that are 100% A-Book You will almost certainly be trading on a B-book account. In a simplified nutshell, B-Book means that your order never goes anywhere near the market. Your trades are internalised by your broker, they are market makers for their own book, and they settle their trades internally. Your broker reduces their own internal risk on their B-book by (if necessary) making the necessary risk-reducing trades on the real market. So in essence, yes you would be able to "collect" because your broker would be doing the settlement internally. However, and its a BIG however. In exceptionally volatile markets such as Ukraine events, your broker will implement risk management procedures in order to prevent lots of clients blowing up their accounts and therefore exposing your broker to a large aggregated risk. Therefore unless you already had a trade in-play before risk management was enabled, its unlikely you'll be able to put on much now (at least not without a large margin requirement). I should say that all the foregoing applies soley to "day-trading" (i.e. CFDs, Spread Bets, Futures etc.). For equities ("stocks & shares") then then there is always external settlement.

LeifCarrotson 5y ago

As of yesterday, it was 1:112, already sharp decline in RUB value compared to pre-war/pre-sanction levels of ~1:80. Now it's 1:158. What changed in the last 24 hours? I'm no expert, but apparently, this lines up with Moody's downgrading of Russia's credit rating to Ca: > *Moody's said default risks had increased, and that foreign bondholders were likely to recoup only part of their investment.* > "The likely recovery for investors will be in line with the historical average, commensurate with a Ca rating," it said. "At the Ca rating level, the recovery expectations are at 35 to 65% (of face value)." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-russia-rating-ca-rise-default-risk-2022-03-06/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-russia-... This may also be related to American and European efforts to ban imports of Russian petroleum.

linuxhansl 5y ago
The possibility of stopping oil imports from Russia is putting additional pressure on the RUB - that's what I read at least.
ABeeSea 5y ago
Russia said they would pay foreign bond holders in rubles even if the bonds are owed in dollars and euros. The exchange rate would be set by the central bank. Most would consider this a default on the loans.

rapidlua 5y ago

This is fake. Sells at 105 right now. Edit: I have an account in a Russian bank and can purchase usd at this rate right now.

relix 5y ago
If that's fake, you can make an easy 50% profit by arbitraging it. If you are somehow practically unable to arbitrage it, then you just discovered the reason why the conversion rates are so different.
- waffleiron 5y ago
  > If you are somehow practically unable to arbitrage it, On the Wise page it says "Sending money to RUB with Wise is temporarily stopped." So yeah, that's why the rates are so different.
extropy 5y ago
Could be that the marked is getting split because of the sanctions and internal prices are diverging. Similar in Soviet times there was a special internal rate that was very disconnected from international.

tdiff 5y ago

Please note MOEX is closed until Wednesday on bank holidays, so until then the rate is very rough approximation.

JohnTHaller 5y ago

1 USD = 34.8 RUB the day before Russia invaded Crimea in 2014

bick_nyers 5y ago

If the Russian people can't convert their Rubles to USD/Euro or buy products outside their country, does it really matter? Like, sure if they bought something overseas it might cost twice as much as before, but that does not necessarily imply that you have to adjust prices for products inside of Russia, as everyone still functionally has the same amount of money. Of course, this is without talking about all of the effects from being cut off from the global supply chain, which will certainly cause chaos on an economy. I guess what I am ultimately asking is, did the Ruble lose value, or did every other currency that isn't a Ruble gain value? Does the currency conversion rates actually represent purchasing power of currencies?

whatshisface 5y ago
Assuming this is the actual price of RUB, and not an artifact created by the illiquidity of RUB on sanction-impacted "retail investor" markets while the real money changes hands elsewhere (I have no reason to believe that, I am simply listing every possible scenario), this will stick around until long after the war is over. >I guess what I am ultimately asking is, did the Ruble lose value, or did every other currency that isn't a Ruble gain value? Foreigners with dollars will compete with Russians with rubles to buy local Russian goods, unless Russia disconnects itself from global trade. This will impact local prices, even the prices of raw natural resources, because the world is all one big market (unless Putin discovers the Juche Idea - but beware, even North Korea, one of the most isolated states on Earth, sells natural resources to China at prices at least somewhat tied to commodities markets.) Anything that involves imports to produce (this is a bigger category than you think, Russia does not make its own oilfield or farm equipment!) will be impacted even more inevitably. Things like Russian real estate could remain steady in RUB denominated price if Europeans are not allowed to compete with Russians to buy it, but wheat, tractors, things like that are going to become twice as expensive almost inevitably. Fortunately that will be counterbalanced by everyone's wages doubling (foreign firms compete with each other to hire Russians) unless, again, Putin disconnects from global trade. In that case, the biggest problem will be the availability or lack thereof of goods at any price.

banana_giraffe 5y ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR And it spiked to 174 earlier today.

travisporter 5y ago

Random thought is the symbol ₽ from wiki used or is it more like the INR (₹) that (in my experience) never really used

hurflmurfl 5y ago
It's used quite often on Russian web-sites nowadays. A few years ago it was pretty rare, with most sites just using the abbreviation "руб." (rub.). As for physical locations, those tend to use the abbreviation, possibly because there's more space on the paper price tag than there is on your mobile screen, but could also be due to some law or some tag printers not supporting this symbol, not sure.

dandanua 5y ago

Simpsons prediction https://youtube.com/watch?v=IYD9xu92zSg https://youtube.com/watch?v=IYD9xu92zSg

Raed667 5y ago

Can anyone explain the consequences of this coupled with the list of "unfriendly countries" that Russia just announced? [0] > Russian citizens and companies, the state itself [..] that have foreign exchange obligations to foreign creditors from the list of unfriendly countries will be able to pay them in rubles [0] https://tass.com/politics/1418197 https://tass.com/politics/1418197

ABeeSea 5y ago
It’s a fancy way for Russia to say that it is defaulting on its foreign debt and attempting to pay it with monopoly money.

jmyeet 5y ago

Despite the sanitized name, "economic sanctions" are violence and collective punishment. Average Russians will be (and already are) take the brunt of this as their savings are destroyed by inflation and/or seized (the Russian "parliament" passed a law requiring all foreign currency payments and bank accounts to have 80% converted to rubles). Lack of food security and access to basic medicines will kill people here, just like it did in Iraq and is doing in Iran and Venezuela. Speaking of Venezuela, all of a sudden the US has warmed to the idea of easing or removing Venezuelan sactions [1] since its a large oil producer. The point is that none of these sanctions are about principle. It's purely self-serving to US strategic interests and the protection of capital (much like Shell buying discounted Russian oil [2]). [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-venezuela-discuss-easing-sanctions-make-little-progress-sources-2022-03-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-venezuela-discuss-... [2]: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/shell-defends-decision-to-buy-discounted-oil-from-russia.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/shell-defends-decision-to-bu...

hackyhacky 5y ago
It's true, and deeply unfair, that the Russian people will suffer for the mistakes of their leaders. That's always the way. I disagree, though, that the sanctions aren't about principle, even though they certainly serve a strategic interest as well. The sanctions are the only way, short of direct war, to influence a foreign nation.
- sgjohnson 5y ago
  > It's true, and deeply unfair, that the Russian people will suffer for the mistakes of their leaders. One could argue that the Russian leadership is a mistake of the Russian people, so they are equally complicit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kELta9MLOzg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kELta9MLOzg It's RadioFreeEurope (a US funded project), so take it with a pinch of salt, but clearly, the average Russian is complicit in this.
  - hackyhacky 5y ago
    One could argue that the Russian leadership is a mistake of the Russian people, but that would be a silly argument, since it implies that Russians choose their leaders. Russia hasn't had free and fair elections in decades, and possibly ever. The fact that some average Russians do, in fact, support their leadership is likely due to (a) the the complete state control of media and (b) the absence of historical precedent in Russia for legitimate public disagreement with the state. In the West, we take some semblance of democracy, including free speech, for granted, but in Russia, democracy and free speech has never existed. Speaking out against your president is a foreign idea for any Russia who isn't well-versed in Western liberal ideals. The average Russians have no familiarity with ideas like "I support my country but not my president."

squarefoot 5y ago

One more sign that this has been planned, and they were prepared against sanctions, is that Russia has been growing their gold and foreign currency reserve for a very long time. https://qz.com/52623/russias-government-has-become-the-worlds-largest-buyer-of-gold-driven-by-fears-of-currency-cataclysm/ https://qz.com/52623/russias-government-has-become-the-world... https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?locations=RU https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?location...

sgjohnson 5y ago
So what? Most of their foreign reserves are frozen (as they are mostly held by foreign banks), and there’s nobody they can sell their gold to (without having to sell at a deep discount). Their $600bn paper reserves right now are probably not even worth $100bn.

mkr-hn 5y ago

Sir Patrick Stewart buying Russian currency as a bit: "ay, there's the rub"

npteljes 5y ago

USD-HUF (and EUR-HUF) is also bonkers https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=HUF https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=HUF

waffleiron 5y ago
PLN going through the same.

frnkng 5y ago

Hopefully I got something wrong but to me it looks like evil genius from hell: The drop of the ruble made the war much cheaper for Russia. 1. They pay their soldiers in rub, machinery was already paid or is bought from domestic suppliers in RUB. 2. Russia earns eur or usd by selling oil and gas to the EU. They earn more rub because the rate decreased so much. As a result: Russia silently decreased the payment of their soldiers by the exact amount that the ruble fell. A truely evil plan. Fighting your brother nation and not even paying for it. The more the rub falls, the cheaper the war gets for them.

etcet 5y ago
The soldiers on the battleship Potemkim weren't treated well either.