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Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

70 points by sgallant 5y ago

I hear a lot from the Western/Ukrainian perspective about this war but I'm curious what the Russian Hacker News community thinks. What is your perspective on what's happening? What are you seeing and hearing from your family and friends in Russia? My deepest sympathy goes out to everyone affected by this tragedy. <3

m_ke 5y ago
vc.ru seems like the russian equivalent of HN, it's been interesting to read the past few days: https://vc.ru/popular https://vc.ru/popular
- LichenStone 5y ago
  This is an interesting source, thank you.
- soared 5y ago
  This is the first Russian site I’ve been to where the chrome translations are really poor - seemingly it is filled with colloquialisms/etc. From what I can tell the users are not at all fans of the sanctions, think they will not motivate the general population, and expect many us business to sell to intermediaries who will sell to Russia. It may be the translations, but it reminds me of political forums where the article is about x, but the top comment is about other hot political topic y. But also this comment is at the top of a thread of Russia’s self imposed sanctions: >The government hammers a new nail into the coffin of the Russian economy every day.
  - ethanbond 5y ago
    One of the odd characteristics about the sanctions is that the vast majority of them are completely optional. Tons of businesses are cutting ties when they don’t even legally have to.
Dah00n 5y ago
I have friends in Russia but if I relate their thoughts I will be downvoted and flagged to oblivion. There's no room for "the other view" on HN. Look at any old thread about PRC and see how it goes. When it smells a little of politics HN quickly devolve and moderation is needed.
deleted 5y ago
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axg11 5y ago
Related question: does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. There is a lot of propaganda flying out on both sides. I think the West/NATO's next steps should carefully consider the true level of support for these actions within Russia. If there is already a modest level of support (e.g. > 25%) then actions such as sanctions and supply of lethal aid could lead to growing support for the conflict within Russia and further escalation.
- mminer237 5y ago
  When it's a crime to call for peace or even call the war a war, and the police can search your phone on demand, it's hard to get an accurate representation of people's views, because people aren't going to be willing to risk prison to answer your poll.
- justsomehnguy 5y ago
  > does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. ...when it bears up to 15 years in jail for treason? Given how the Russian government operates - just look for the amount of arrests [0] [0] https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/06/spiski-zaderzhannyh-v-svyazi-s-akciyami-protiv-voyny-s-ukrainoy-6-marta-2022-goda https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/06/spiski-zaderzhannyh-v-svyaz...
- seina 5y ago
  https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/05/esli-verit-gosudarstvennym-sotsoprosam-bolshinstvo-rossiyan-podderzhivayut-voynu-v-ukraine-no-mozhno-li-im-verit https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/05/esli-verit-gosudarstven... tldr: huge support among older population This is according to two pro-government pollsters, but they also link to one independent poll that seem to confirm the findings so far. Meduza is probably largest remaining opposition russian media.
  - e1g 5y ago
    Meduza is generally a credible source, and this article has an important nuance - there is huge support among older population _who watched government TV daily_. That is, interested in & highly aligned with the Kremlin's propaganda. The same article say it's a ~50/50 split among people who are young, educated, or live in large cities.
omdv 5y ago
I am Ukrainian, living in US, but have plenty of Russian friends and (still) some connections with people living in Russia. My strong believe is that there is pretty high support of Putin in Russia, especially around mainstream population, I'd estimate at least 40-50%. This is related to 20+ years of propaganda and phantom pains of USSR collapse. West people should not be delusional. Of course it is also not black and white - not liking West in general is one thing, supporting Putin's war is another. Finally, I hope you realize that by asking here you will get a _very_ distorted view.
- 52-6F-62 5y ago
  Do you happpen to have heard/know how groups like this are viewed? https://mobile.twitter.com/guychazan/status/1500543700295987206?s=21 https://mobile.twitter.com/guychazan/status/1500543700295987... https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1500495309595725831 https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/15004953095957...
  - rasz 5y ago
    Holy shit that first video :o This organization probably grew out of scouts https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/01/putins-boy-scout-army-russia-military-patriotic-clubs-ukraine/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/01/putins-boy-scout-army-r... going "The Youth Army, open to both boys and girls, is a militarized throwback to the Young Pioneers of the Soviet era." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/world/europe/russia-soviet-youth-army.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/world/europe/russia-sovie... and ending up with straight up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitler_Youth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitler_Youth
- brodouevencode 5y ago
  > Finally, I hope you realize that by asking here you will get a _very_ distorted view. This cannot be overstated. It's hard to know what and who to believe anymore.
  - Klaster_1 5y ago
    The point was probably that people who visit HN from Russia bias heavily against the war - mostly young, educated, well off.
deleted 5y ago
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vogre 5y ago
Hello! Russian SW developer from Moscow is here. First, it's been a shock for all the society. No one would imagine in a worst dream that this attack would happen. Even when Putin made his speech about acceptance of LNR/DNR we were like "phew, another shitty fake politics, nothing really changes". But then the war started. And no one expected that! I think, even military or economic ministers didn't expect that. People are in the shock. First, it's been incredibly painful to watch our beloved friends in Ukraine are suffering, fleeing the country and turning to be our enemies forever. Almost every Russian have some relative or friend in Ukraine, and now these bonds are broken forever. It's very very painful! The fact that the source of suffering is your country doubles the weight. Second, there is an information attack "Every Russian is to shame", which targets even those who fleed the country seeking the asylum from Putin. It feels very dehumanizing and racist actually. When I opened facebook there was some ads with corpses of Russian soldiers, and FB moderation was okay with it. Now Facebook is blocked(which is actually good thing, it doesn't help, only melt people's minds). Most people in Russia are very poor, and don't read facebook/watch youtube. They see the beautiful TV picture of brave Russian forces fighting Ukrainian nazis, without resistance from ordinary people. So this facebook war is only doing harm to educated class which doesn't have political power anyway. The news about oligarchs who lost their yachts can only give Putin additional support. Third, of course, it's very scary. We may die from nuclear war. We can end up in some North Korea/Iran scenario and never see Europe again. Businesses are falling, Europe connections are cut one by one. Russian people are used to some bad times, but I've never seen events unfolding so fast and so tragic and unpredictable. There is a lot of propaganda from both of sides, lot of fakes, and infowar is melting our brains. Some people are panicking and try to move to Georgia/Armenia. Some are just preparing for bad days trying to hold on and help their families. Some people are happy with their TV picture. Most of people are just trying to hold as much as they can - work, prepare for growing season, save their businesses. We don't have illusions that life will just go on after the war is over. The future is very unclear, but everyone I know just want this war to be over as soon as possible and with as low casualties as still possible and then work hard to deal with consequences.
- fgcoppola 5y ago
  Thank you for taking the time to share your perspective. I wish you best of luck.
crownvic 5y ago
On the streets here, almost everyone I hear supports everything in full. Probably, around 70% support this, and the other 30% are not sure/against it. The local and nationwide TV states that they found 30 Pentagon-funded biowarfare labs in Ukraine, got all the docs, and are preparing some statements for the West. Obviously, high-level propaganda flows from Russia and the West both. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle. And if you take a look at videos from Feb, people in the Eastern part of Ukraine don't mind the Russian army there, even wave and show high-fives. My highly incorrect calculations suggest that about 80% of people in Eastern Ukraine support Russia. In the middle part, that figure is maybe 30-40%, and in Western Ukraine near zero. I have a niece in the middle part (near Cherkasy). It's okay there, and no battles are incoming. So, she doesn't understand what to expect, doesn't support all this clusterfug, but doesn't support the Ukrainian government either.
- marius_k 5y ago
  > 30 Pentagon-funded biowarfare labs in Ukraine. That just does not make any sense to me. Why should those labs be somewhere in Ukraine rather than in US?
  - crownvic 5y ago
    Well, I think it actually does make sense. Don't keep highly-virulent samples on your soil. But, obviously, any propaganda is propaganda. We can't prove or disprove it without any facts. I am also highly unsure about the bit in the Western news outlets that Russians were tried to damage Zap Nuclear Plant two days ago. Our news outlets state that plant has been under control from Feb 28th (probably true). This incident was a try to destroy a training building (not in the restricted area) that contained some documentation or just to spook West. In my opinion, it's a complete bs. If you can control the largest nuclear power plant, you can control energy for half of Ukraine. Why damage it? Having said that, I see a lot of bs from both sides. So, no fact is a fact unless proven.
    - MerelyMortal 5y ago
      > Well, I think it actually does make sense. Don't keep highly-virulent samples on your soil. I don't think it makes sense. Why do something secret where you have less control or ability to monitor the surrounding area and the people? It's easier to for a surprise to occur, or for a development/leak not to be noticed.
TrapLord_Rhodo 5y ago
When i was in the Air Force, I interacted with alot of russians "On the other side" when wee were building FOBs in eastern europe afteer the invasion of crimea. At work, It was all about defeating the russians. After work, it was about out drinking the russians. We laughed, we joked but at the end of the day we knew our bossees thought eachother enemies. And at the end of the day we knew that we were activeely working to kill eachother. That didn't seem to bother us. Alot of people in the military believe what the world has taught us not to believe... That we are the greatest nation in the world and use of force is the only thing that is tangible and real in this world. You're right to Life liberty and property is an illusion and at any point i can kill you and take what you've worked hard for to save. Is it Moral? Yes, because it's real life. The only Amoral things in reality is these illusions that morality exist. Asking what the russians think isn't the right question. The right question is what percentage of nationalist exist in russia. Because i can tell you one thing, Nationalists believe in this war to their core. The weak don't deserve the products of their labor if they can't defend it. We've seen this as a fact of life since life has been a fact. Good Luck Comrades, but one day i will have to kill you for your virtuos beliefs.
- gimboland 5y ago
  > The weak don't deserve the products of their labor if they can't defend it. We've seen this as a fact of life since life has been a fact. Amazing how "may not be able to retain" collapses down to "do not deserve" here.
  - TrapLord_Rhodo 5y ago
    how else do you justify invasion and war?
    - ObscureScience 5y ago
      If you take away what someone else deserve you are immoral. Morality can be complex, but I would start there.
      - 5y ago
evgeniysharapov 5y ago
I am Russian living in the US, but what I can gather from conversations with my college acquaintances and family that is still living there - there's plenty of Russians who are appalled and against and can rationalize what devastation this war is for Russia, not even taking Ukraine into account, where humanitarian catastrophe is obvious. All those reasons are obvious to any person living outside of Russia and, as I said, to some Russian people. But here lies the problem, these are things that are rational. Most of the "deep" Russian populace may seem irrational now. Here are some of the thoughts they express: - closing and isolating from West is a good thing - no bad influence and we will keep things, s.a. modernism, liberalism, libertine behavior, e.g. homosexuality and transgenderism away. - closing foreign markets will boost Russian production and development by keeping all the resources and investments inside and protecting domestic market from unfair competition (e.g. agro subsidies) - closing travel and foreign countries and markets will keep people inside and by extension will EQUALIZE everyone. Essentially, now there's no rich and poor and everyone is sort of equally poor. Remember, that few folks, s.a. oligarchs, various celebs with their conspicuous consumption are eternal target of people's hate. - There's no freedom and liberty, all west are hypocrites and they always wanted to subjugate us via harsh force or through soft force. Note, that the western (btw, Australia and New Zealand are considered western in this paradigm) governments forcing vaccinations/masks/lockdowns are used against western governments claim that they are for freedom and liberty.
- 52-6F-62 5y ago
  Current events aside, those pillars read as if they’re entirely derived from a philosophy based on fear. It’s pitiable. Also I find it rather odd, because having studied Russian literature when I was younger I always got a sense that the Russian people had earned enlightenment and a resilient, if sometimes morose, philosophy that sees life as fundamentally good, but filled with challenges introduced by those who lack such a grounded perception. An inextinguishable light persisting against imposing darkness. This whole of current events and current outlooks I’m hearing about sounds nothing like that. It’s all darkness.
  - evgeniysharapov 5y ago
throwaway_9357 5y ago
I am disgusted at all 3 political sides involved. Most disgusted with EU/US, followed by Ukrainian government and finally by the Russian Government. A war does not happen for no reason. Putin is a known to be a rational actor. Obviously ordinary people do not want war. So you have to ask yourself, what events led to the war? What was done to prevent it? What is done to stop it now? Why am I disgusted with US/EU? Firstly the double standards make me sick. I am not going to go further into this to avoid buTwHatAbout. The cancellation of everything Russian, the message that every Russian is responsible and statements that they want to choke the Russian economy makes me and my people feel hated. This is accepted xenophobia. Secondly Russia has been clear since 2008 that it would rather go to war than let Ukraine join NATO. They absolutely should not have sponsored Ukrainian nationalist parties or ever had their troops or weapons set foot there. They have been (relatively) silent about what was going on in Donbass and Lugansk. I hosted two refugees from there. Truly horrific stories coming from there for 8 years, and the West just downplays it. It is very clear to me that the current UA government is a puppet of the West that takes advantage of support from western Ukrainians who are quite different from central and eastern Ukrainians. Thirdly they are now actively encouraging war by sending weapons, by pre training the troops there. My uncle was in Ukrainian Armed Forces, he quit and left back to our family in Russia because they were constantly brainwashed to hate Russia and everything Russian. Now Ukraine, their leader is either a puppet or incredibly stupid. If he was warned for months that Russia is going to invade and has 190,000 troops at his borders while warning against NATO relationships. He comes out and says Ukraine will work to join NATO and will also develop its own nuclear weapons?? His recent actions feel like they intentionally are chosen to make it as difficult as possible for the next regime that will be installed rather than what would be best for the Ukrainian people. Like it or not he should understand that if the worlds largest nuclear power wants its neighbor disarmed from enemy weapons, it will be. Finally the Russian government. I really wish they went with another approach. But I don't know what to suggest, don't do anything and let the West have its way? Continue talks that have been going on in circles for 8 years? Bomb the military infrastructure and leave it at that? I would have probably went with this but who knows what the consequences would be compared to now. I can see where they are coming from. The last time we had to defend the narrow UA/Belarus - West border we lost almost 30mil lives. Now if that border becomes much longer and a NATO - Russia border, flat and so close to all key cities - that is an existential threat. And the fact that the West doesn't seem to respect that and can't even give a NATO moratorium on Ukraine to avoid war makes me feel really uneasy.
ainzzorl 5y ago
Software engineer from Moscow. This is an absolute disaster for us. I can't imagine how and when we recover from this. The damage already made to our country is going to be devastating, and it's not even over yet. I even envy Ukrainians a little because they have a future (if they survive all this of course), and we don't. Most people in my bubble, including myself, are strongly against the war. Many are fleeing the country. I'm currently on vacation abroad, and I haven't made up my mind if I'm coming back. SWEs like myself probably are going to be the least affected by this because most of us can work for foreign companies just fine and make decent money, but most other people don't have this privilege and have nowhere to run. Generations of people are doomed to live in poverty because of decisions made by our genius of geopolitics. The old man actually thought we would win this war in 3 days and get away with it. I don't think he has a plan B. And I take his threats of using nuclear weapons very seriously. While I blame Putin for most of this, I also think the collective West has gone mad too. The campaign to cancel, ban, boycott and belittle everything and everyone that has anything to do with Russia is out of control. People are not to blame for the actions their government. The talks like "let's hurt the regular people so they revolt against Putin" are just like that villain from Shrek: "Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make".
- throwaway2845 5y ago
  > I also think the collective West has gone mad too. The campaign to cancel, ban, boycott and belittle everything and everyone that has anything to do with Russia is out of control. People are not to blame for the actions their government. The talks like "let's hurt the regular people so they revolt against Putin" are just like that villain from Shrek: "Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make". Russian indifference is solely to blame. You care now that it hurts you, but the years of support to dictatorships abroad, from Cuba to Syria, the invasion of Georgia, Chechen. You didn't care about any of that.
  - tpoacher 5y ago
    oh, you know this guy?
- 5y ago
hereforphone 5y ago
LordNight 5y ago
Just an office clerk from Moscow. 1. Absolutely no one expected an actual war with Ukraine. When the first news in english press were published (in November I think) about the coming war between Russia and Ukraine, everyone I know just simply dissmised the very idea of it. It seemed absurd, unthinkable. I did not believe there was any possibility of the war whatsoever and so were my friends, my colleagues, my parents, the ukranians I know. The news became a common joke, a meme even. So when I woke up Feb. 24th and opened the internet, I was stunned, appaled and absolutely embarrased on top of it. I've never read or heard that it is possible to feel enormous embarrassment about the delcaration of war, but it was the strongest feeling in me at the time (and reading various russian sites - not just in me). Despite various disagreements between the Russian and Ukrainian governments, the news about war seemed bizarre. It would be similiar to waking up one day and reading that US Navy are blockading Liverpool and Bristol, US Airforce are bombing London and Manchester, and US Marines are storming Brighton and Southampton. Absolutely surreal. It took a full week for this feeling to slowly fade away before I regained my ability to think straight; I just couldn't work or do anything productive during that time, I was glued to the news and even more news. My father still haven't recovered - he lost all appetite, doesn't talk with anyone and overall extremely depressed. 2. Reading various russian sites - the first reaction was very negative and almost no one supported the war as it happened. After the first 3-4 days the opinions started to change. People started to mentally cope with the news and invent various rationalizations in favour of war - nobody like to be a "baddie" or feel like one. So the opinion is slowly swaying towards the side that claims that the war is justified. That said, I believe even the official russian TV-propaganda were shocked and didn't know what to do or say at first - it took them several days to find the right groove. Propaganda-wise, there was zere preparation of the population for the coming war. The main downside of constantly manupulating statistics is that it is impossible to know which numbers are genuine and which aren't. It could really be that 70% of russians are supporting the war. Or it could be 50%. Or 30%. Or 99%. There is no way to know for sure. 3. On top of that no one really knows or understands what is it exactly that our army are fighting for, what are our end-goals and, especially, what exactly will happen if Ukrainian government will refuse to sign a peace treaty and deside to fight till the end. "Demilitarization" and "denazification' are extremely abstract goals with no clear purpose. There was (and still is) a strong emphasis that the russian army will not target civilian buildings and infrastructure (and soldiers are genuinly reluctant to do so). But it is plain to see now, that this goal is impossible to achieve in the modern war. So what do we do? Do we start to level Kiev and other cities to the ground? Do we march on Lviv? Just what is the plan? Nobody knows. 4. As for the future - right now I am genuinely more worried about the Ukranians than about Russia. I have friends in Sumy who are now almost two weeks under siege, and who knows how long it will last. The Ukraine itself is suffering an enourmous damage to it's infrastructure - how and when and with what funds it will be restored I have no idea. On top of that it looks like there will be at least 5.000.000 refugees (and probably much much more) - their fate is also unclear, I don't think EU can adequately deal with such a large number. In comparision the devaluation of the ruble doesn't seem as important. It looks like there are three main fears: 1) a large scale unemployment - a lot of businesses are leaving Russia, producing an enormous chain reaction; 2) lack of essential medicine - a lot of drugs are imported from the EU (Germany in particular); 3) complete default of the state - a lot of people have lived through the 90s (which in Russia were somewhat equivalent to the Great Depression in USA), so a certain level of impoverishment and hardship are ok, we are used to it, but a complete bancrupcy will be catastrophic. I don't believe there is any chance for an actual famine. The rest isn't so important in comparison. 5. It is also important to understand, that even in an unjust war it is impossible not to support and sympathize with your army. Wishing death and defeat to your own soldiers just isn't right and would feel dirty.

Wiseacre 5y ago
Can you explain this cancellation of everything Russian? The Russian restaurant near me is being embraced by the local community. Most people here feel bad for the Ukrainian and Russian people and only have hatred for Putin. Was a throwaway necessary for this comment?
- throwaway_9357 5y ago
  I spent a lot of time in an EU country and still have a lot of people I met on Instagram. These are normal people and a lot of them non stop post Russian hate now. Some Russian culture events got cancelled by the venue. I realize I may be exaggerating but it has just gotten to me
  - moistly 5y ago
    I think you mistake hatred of a cruel mafioso government and the dysfunctional structures that enable it to continue unimpeded, with the Russian people. Putin, the oligarchs, and the sociopathic bullies that enforce the regime are rightfully hated by all moral people. The generationally abused citizenry that have suffered so much for so long are not hated: the world wishes better for them.
- throwaway_9357 5y ago
  Throwaway was necessary because a close friend of mine reads this forum daily and knows my username. We are avoiding this topic at all cost
m_ke 5y ago
Maybe ask yourself why all of your closest neighbors are/were begging to join NATO.
MattGaiser 5y ago
> Thirdly they are now actively encouraging war by sending weapons The alternative to sending weapons being Ukraine being brutally beaten rather than given a chance to defend itself. There is a reason that nearly every former Soviet occupied country fled to NATO.
- throwaway_9357 5y ago
- TrapLord_Rhodo 5y ago
  "every former Soviet occupied country fled " This is not really how history worked. It was NATO, the EU and the US deciding where the cards fell, who was placed in power and where the dividing lines were.
- yellowbanana 5y ago
  > The alternative to sending weapons being Ukraine being brutally beaten rather than given a chance to defend itself. I really don't understand this point, Ukraine is very unlikely to win against russia. giving them more weapons is just going to make the war long and more brutal. The sane thing is the diplomatic route and give putin enought to stop the war. Otherwise sending weapons for ukraine to fight russia, is like supporting your friend with a knife to a gun fight. Unless it's important enought that the west is willing to fight alongside ukraine, this will just lead to more loss of life and end up russia winning.
  - moistly 5y ago
    > The sane thing is the diplomatic route and give putin enought to stop the war. Give a Mouse a Cookie… https://w3.ric.edu/sherlockcenter/dsi/mousecookie.pdf https://w3.ric.edu/sherlockcenter/dsi/mousecookie.pdf
ethanbond 5y ago
A “puppet government” voted into power with 70%+ of the popular vote is just called “a government that disagrees with me.”
- throwaway_9357 5y ago
- TrapLord_Rhodo 5y ago
  not all voting is created equal. There are plenty of examples of puppet governments with much higher ratings than 70%. In reality, alot of governments are puppets to some higher power in this globalist economy we've found ourselves in.
  - ethanbond 5y ago
    Voting is not an approval rating. In a democracy, leaders don’t just validate their decisions with “ratings,” they actually derive their mandate from the voting results. Zelensky was voted into power with overwhelming public support on a platform of NATO alignment. There were several Russian-aligned candidates who also had a fair shot at earning a mandate from the public. They failed. Zelensky won (and not by a little bit). There’s not even a little bit of surprise in this state of the world, either. Russia is ruled by thugs and has been for a long time. It’s not surprising at all that when a country goes democratic, they tend to align with NATO.
NicoJuicy 5y ago
I don't know what you're talking about. 1) NATO never attacked Russia. Russia is constantly testing war-responses ( flyovers/bypasses, internet cables, army ships, ...). That's also the reason why Sweden ( not NATO) has re-introduced military duty for adults. 2) Ukraine never attacked Russia. They defended their property when Russia invaded with gray zone terrorist. They did close off the water supply. 3) You are being diluted. In Crimea their was a huge amount of natural gas found and that is why Russia invaded. Guess what the first place was that they occupied... In return, Ukraine cut off water supply to their occupied parts and the ground got dry. Current habitants of Crimea say it became a military state and are not happy about it, in contrary to the first years of occupation ( when the bridge between Russia and Crimea wasn't finished yet, Russians promised a lot about how it would improve. It didn't). 4) Zelensky being a puppet or stupid is pure Russian propaganda since Russia lost their governement because of Ukraine pro-democracy protests. Yes, he improved relations with the West, since there was a danger from Russia. This danger became reality now. Russia never thaught that the family bounds would have been broken off this quickly. Zelensky is everything Putin wants to be, a leader without the need of obvious propaganda. While Putin is too scared of COVID ( not even a joke). Tbh. Zelensky his actions are everything what one could ever want in a leader. I'm quite impressed how he is handing this horror. 5) You are not blaming Russia, you are trying to find an excuse to put it on NATO/ Ukraine. Here are the facts, outside of the false whataboutism: - NATO didn't invade Russia - Ukraine didn't invade Russia - Ukraine didn't suddenly create nuclear weapons because of NATO - NATO didn't threaten with nukes - Ukraine didn't threaten with nukes - Ukraine is defending themselves from an invasion/war But: - Putin invaded Crimea - 'gray zone warfare' - Putin invaded Ukraine - 'special military op' - Belarus now has nuclear weapons because of Russia - Russia and Belarus threaten with nukes - Russia started the war --- The end result already has changed a lot of Russian narrative and had the opposite intended effect: - Russian army is a joke, the advanced tech was mostly sold to get money and they barely have modern equipment for themselves. Quantity doesn't replace quality. - the propaganda because they could move equipment because of trains, actually seems to be their biggest limitation. - instead of reliable using their propaganda machine build over the decades, it has been cut off almost immediately - everyone by now knows how scared Putin is of COVID, even while vaccines exist. They called dibs to soon. Putin his image of tough guy is scattered. - they united Europe instead of dividing it - more countries want to join NATO. Russia even did some flyovers with Finland, speeding up the process - they trained Ukrainians instead of weakening them since 2014 - the cyber talent in Russia ( supposed to be up notch) had been hacked multiple times by anonymous. We should be grateful that they pentested our systems with limited side-effects for free. Their advanced malware was stopped thanks to Microsoft within 3 hours. I think that's a record. - they are becoming totally dependent on China, instead of acting like a world player. - they are hastening the process in Europe to become less dependent on gas. While Europe actually bought more from Russia in the past. But yeah, we'll pay higher prices for gas, oil and weat. It will be an expensive operation/consequence. But those that substained from voting against Russia will pay more too. I can live with that. The will has never been greater.
phaedrix 5y ago
Thanks for posting this; I've had a lot of trouble trying to figure out how Putin is justifying what seems like obvious aggression against another sovereign nation. The tl;dr I think is simply that - Putin does not consider ukraine a soveign nation -- he (and I guess many russians) consider it part of russia; e.g. a wayward child that needs to be brought back into the family. Anyway, thanks. I don't agree, but I think it's extremely important to understand both sides, otherwise no conversation can ever happen.
ethics13 5y ago
From one Russian to another, не валяй дурака. There was no precedent of NATO anything. NATO didn't attack or threaten your land. Ukraine never attacked Russia. Russia did with Donbas and then Crimea. Your post embodies the propaganda that Russians in Russia swallowed, hook, bait, and even the lasso.
- nowherebeen 5y ago
  Yeah, a lot of his arguments don't really make sense if you break it down. The logic is similar to what Chinese people from China think on political issues. It's always some shadowy government coming for them and they must defend themselves and rid of them (i.e. attack). When in doubt, blame the West. It's crazy how ingrained it is for nationalists from current and former communist countries.
nowherebeen 5y ago
I respect your opinion and I am not Russian, so I don't have skin in the game. But, I wonder if you realize your comment paints yourself as the ultimate victim. There is also a strong sense of victim blaming for Ukraine's defensive action. It's equivalent of an abusive boyfriend beating her girlfriend up and then blaming her for defending herself.

rafaelm 5y ago

> The talks like "let's hurt the regular people so they revolt against Putin" As someone that comes from a sanctioned country, this is one important thing that most people that have never lived a similar situation don't understand: -When you live in an authoritarian regime, you don't just "revolt" and topple the autocrat. In our case, it has cost a LOT of innocent lives in the streets protesting. Autocrats don't mind killing as many of their own citizens as they have to, to stay in power. -The sanctions are usually paid for by the population. In our case, while the sanctions were certainly "inconvenient" to the government, most of the effects where on the regular people. Government cronies have no problem getting food, gasoline, etc. This then gives the autocrat the excuse: "Look, it's them causing this. I'm here to defend you from the bad imperialist sanctions. Now, I'm not saying I know what the solution is, and I certainly get a lot of satisfaction in seeing that my local autocrats cannot travel freely with their ill-gotten gains and seeing yachts being confiscated all over the world. But it's my opinion that most of the time, sanctions affect a population that has very little power to do something about the situation. That being said, in Russia's case, being very heavily constrained economically does throw a spanner in the gears of the war machine. Not sure how it's going to play out, but I bet Putin would rather see his people starve first before limiting the military funding of this.

w0de0 5y ago
These sanctions are not about inducing revolt. I imagine most policymakers and citizens in the West are clear-eyed about the hopeless political apathy in Russian society. It’s been 30 years of economic engagement and rising prosperity for them and all we got for it was this evil!, the Germans lament. It’s more: starve the war machine’s economy, and be damned the consequences for ordinary Russians. Geopolitics aside, I and many feel a simple moral repulsion at funding the aggressor in any way. Sure, one wishes many more Russians felt the same - not likely it seems.
- cmurf 5y ago
  I agree with all of this, however... Parties to the U.N. Charter need to do better. There is no way back to the stable world, such as it was. And not least of which is, we were wrong about it having been stable. This is too big a violation of the U.N. Charter to just set it aside and go back as if nothing happened. And that it happened, when the U.N. Charter system is designed expressly to prevent this from having happened, also shows there's a problem. Is it institutional? Or was it just wishful thinking that turned out to not be true? And now what? Because we need the U.N. Charter's institutions now more than ever. If it is really under threat, it means we're at even bigger risk of yet another world war, the very thing the U.N Charter system is intended to prevent. We now confront the very real possibility of the stability-instability paradox is true. As a result of Putin using nuclear weapons as a shield to permit him to commit atrocities with conventional weapons, which increases the risk of escalation to and including a nuclear exchange. That means there is a gap opening between conventional war and mutually assured destruction, a kind of limited nuclear exchange. The similar idea of having to crap so badly you think, "well maybe I'll just let a little bit out". Which is worse? The idea of a little bit of nuclear weapons exchange? Or giving up on principles and getting a nuclear war anyway? I prefer to stick to the principles, and be damned to hell for them than to just give up these principles to the likes of Putin. Kenya's Ambassador to the U.N. talking about Ukraine and the U.N. Charter system falling, just before the invasion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxZlaiuicYM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxZlaiuicYM