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Crude oil market opens at $125
- Ericson2314 5y agoThank you Putin for teaching us how to not globe warm.
- nxm 5y agoYou probably have no issues paying high prices given you’re in the tech field (I presume), but it is an issue for the common folks. Very elitist statement there
- stefan_ 5y agoYou might want to press 10Y on that market chart at some point. Compare to housing.
- megablast 5y agoHe probably just doesn’t want the world to be destroyed. How selfish.
- Ericson2314 5y agoMore like because I only use public transportation.
- rad_gruchalski 5y agoWhich doesn’t need oil, no… maybe not in your neck of the woods. That’s lucky for you.
- MattGaiser 5y agoPricing for public transport is not dynamic typically.
- rad_gruchalski 5y agoThe offset comes in form of taxes. It will hit later.
- space_rock 5y agoFrance has a high amount of nuclear power and is less dependent on Russian gas
- missedthecue 5y agoNuclear power plants don't produce crude oil though.
- emteycz 5y agoWait until all the Europeans start mining coal again.
- Ericson2314 5y agoThe latency is such that that would probably start rationing first.
- emteycz 5y agoSome plants were decommisioned recently, very easy to get up again. We import coal for industrial use from Australia, we can use that before we ramp up the mining. Anyways, this is supposed to be ironic. I'd be glad if that didn't happen.
- insickness 5y agoPutin inadvertently saves the world.
- nine_zeros 5y agoI wonder if companies continue optional wfh, would that make a dent in the demand for gasoline.
- phendrenad2 5y agoExcept for all the doordash.
- chewbacha 5y agoIt might be a wash, HVAC is more efficient in office buildings than in individual homes.
- aperson_hello 5y agoBut crude =/= natural gas! Especially outside of the Europe markets
- toomuchtodo 5y agoThe vast majority of electricity is not generated from oil unless you’re in a remote area or an island (Hawaii). Edit: This upward price pressure might really move the needle on utility storage and renewables for these locations, depending on how long this price spike lasts.
- chipsa 5y agoMu? Not sure how it follows.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- gruez 5y agoProbably not much. Eyeballing this chart[1], it looks like "Finished Motor Gasoline" dropped from pre-pandemic levels of around ~9000 Mbbl/d to around ~8000 Mbbl/d around jan 2021, which was presumably peak WFH/lockdown. That translates to a drop of 11.1%. According to another chart[2], "motor gasoline" makes up 44% of oil supplied, with 96% going to transportation. Multilpying those numbers out, we find that for the US, reinstituting WFH/lockdowns similar to the ones in effect in jan 2021 would cause crude consumption to go down by 4.69%. Presumably "optional WFH" will have a lower impact than this, because of people not choosing to WFH, or people using their vehicle for leisure activities. [1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.htm [2] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc...
- stavros 5y agoI saw a comment on reddit that made me think, it was a Russian person saying that sanctions only hurt the average citizen when the ruling class has enough wealth to not be affected much. They also said that popular opinion will either turn against the west (for imposing the sanctions) or not hurt Putin much because he doesn't really need popular approval (which I'm not sure I believe). Do the sanctions actually hurt Putin, or are we hurting ourselves and the everyday Russian for nothing?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- codazoda 5y agoBased on the fact that he said the sanctions are “an act of war”, I presume he’s feeling some pain from them.
- stavros 5y agoLet's hope so, though for that particular statement I'm not ruling out just him being belligerent.
- hbosch 5y agoI don’t know. Maybe it’s conspiracy minded, but in my opinion Putin will publicly pretend to be hurt by the sanctions (and acknowledge the depressed ruble and so on) as a so-called “act of war” so that the world can hear him acknowledging NATO countries as “doing something.” This serves many ways: Putin projects as vulnerable, sanctions are optically seen as successful measures, NATO countries get to say they’re helping, and all the way Russia gets to keep bombarding Ukraine… I’m inclined to believe the former opinion that gas price hikes ultimately affect the average person and elite persons need not care. Putin and his inner circle operate at a level of power that is above even money. To an oligarch money is a toy thing, the power they have is above any short term economic concern. I’m reminded of that old Weibo thread of Chinese people posting symbols of their wealth, one upping each other over and over, until the ultimate show of “wealth” was posted as being an invite to a dinner with the president (or something like that) which not even billionaires have access to. All this to say that theatre and public relations is a major tool of war and power, as much as soldiers and bombs.
- cagenut 5y agoWe've all pretty well beaten the electric-vehicle conversation to death, but since we're on the "oil demand and the nasty actors it empowers" topic, here's another slice of the demand pie that solutions are emerging for: ground source heat pumps as a replacement for heating oil in the remaining american northeast market -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_4mPwPRAt0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_4mPwPRAt0 They've developed/adapted water well drilling rigs into a smaller faster machine that can fit in more backyards and drill a vertical GSHP well much faster and with much less impact to the property than a horizontal loop.
- gonzo 5y agoMy father and grandfather were water well drilling contractors. I drilled two wells for ground source heat pumps for his home in the early 80s. They work very well, but the construction costs are higher than ordinary heat pumps.
- VectorLock 5y agoSounds pretty cool technology, This Old House did an install with this same company https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMO9jvwlHFg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMO9jvwlHFg I have to replace two oil furnaces and I wish this didn't cost 5x more and wouldn't be compatible with the very small lot (although with very close bedrock)
- maxerickson 5y agohttps://dandelionenergy.com/geothermal-pricing-guide https://dandelionenergy.com/geothermal-pricing-guide They say $18,000-$25,000 after incentives for the upfront cost, with annual savings of $1,600. That's still pretty expensive (even just in terms of direct payback time).
- yojo 5y agoDoes anyone finance these things? 1600 against 25k is 6.4%. Seems like it wouldn’t be too hard to break even in todays rate environment.
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- purple_ferret 5y agoIs this because of speculation? Doesn't the US only get 3% of oil from Russia? I'd love to look at the numbers of crude oil produced/consumed globally and compare. Surely, Russia isn't stopping production. So what's the worst that can happen? A country like China gets cheaper Russian oil while the west pays a premium for non-Russian oil. Does that really cause such a massive run up in price?
- soperj 5y agoRussia is the biggest oil exporter in the world. They produce about 10 million barrels a day, slightly more than Saudi Arabia. When it's no longer being bought, it's not just the US who isn't buying it, and the rest of the oil out there has a greater demand for it.
- moolcool 5y ago> Is this because of speculation? Isn't that why almost everything is priced how it is?
- hn_throwaway_99 5y ago> Does that really cause such a massive run up in price? Yes. 1. Russia is the number 2 exporter of oil, behind Saudi Arabia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_expor... 2. The fact that the US only gets 3% of its oil from Russia is kind of irrelevant - it's largely a global market. 3. The idea that Russia can just switch to selling all of its oil to China, so then the West can then get its oil from someplace else (a) is not feasible and (b) would completely defeat the purpose of sanctions in any case. 4. Prices are always set at the margins. A relatively small shortfall can cause a huge price increase primarily because, when there is a shortfall, the price needs to increase enough for some buyers to just drop out of the market altogether.
- Others 5y agoI think (3b) isn’t true, since the sanctions are effecting every part of Russia’s economy. And while the petroleum industry is like 40% of their exports by revenue, the other 60% is obviously significant. Also from a Russian point of view, the difficulty importing and lack of access to the international banking system may be more painful. In fact if the west could target everything except oil, they probably would (since that’s the most critical export that Europe needs). Your overall point still stands though. Your argument is strong. It’s not practical for Russia to simply redirect their flow to maintain “business as usual”.
- woodruffw 5y ago$125 looks like a 10-year high, but it's interesting to see that oil has actually been unusually cheap since around the Fall/Winter of 2014 -- before that, the average was around $100/barrel for nearly a decade (with a spike and trough during the Great Recession). It looks like the 25-year high is around $140. Edit: Adjusted for inflation, the 25-year high is around $186.
- UncleMeat 5y agoYep. Inflation is hitting a lot of areas but the "gasoline is really expensive" headlines are the worst example of this. "Gas prices are the highest since 2008" is another way of saying "gas prices went down for fourteen years and have only just now bounced back." Oil is a particularly sensitive commodity. It swings all over the place. No surprises here.
- newaccount2021 5y ago
- megablast 5y agoGood. The higher the price of oil, the less people killed by cars.
- space_rock 5y agoGood time to be an EV owner
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- jmyeet 5y agoEconomic sanctions are violence and a form of collective punishment and like most violence and collective punishment it disproportionately affects average citizens. Different countries will serve their core interests by carving out exceptions. For example: - Shell buys discounted oil from Russia [1]; - UK carves out exceptions for certain banks [2]. - Luxury real estate is routinely held by LLCs where the beneficial owner is meant to be declared to Companies House, a rule that isn't enforced allowing oligarchs, despots and criminals to hide and park money in London real estate. - Italy sought exclusions of luxury goods from sanctions [3] - Chinese banks will likely be a bypass to financial sactions [4] Any actions that actually would target Russian oligarchs like seizing their assets (for example, real estate in the West) is nowhere to be seen. There's no weakening Russia's military (this being one of the excuses for Iraqi sanctions) for military action because Russia is still a nuclear power. Russia has its own industry, its own food supply and its own energy.Given there are no military options, I get the desire for some form of punishment for an unprovoked and unjustifiable act of aggression that is the invasion of Ukraine but make no mistake, these sanctions will do nothing. Does anyone find it strange how much lip service politicians and regular people alike pay to keeping prices low at the gas pump while saying they stand with Ukraine? Well, which is it? That's easy: it's the oil. You need no further evidence of this than today's development that given the supply issues in oil due to the war in Ukraine, the US has decided that the arbitrarily imposed, violent sactions imposed on Venezeuela might be eased or removed because now it's expedient to do so [5]. Make no mistake: the US is not standing up for any principles in any of this. It's purely about strategic interests. And if a bunch of children die, as clearly happened in Iraq (although the actual numbers are disputed), look no further than the 1996 comments of then UN Ambassador and later US Secretary of State Madelline Albright answered the question of whether the sanctions were worth it answered [6]: > I think that is a very hard choice, but the price, we think, the price is worth it. Is it really any wonder that most of the world despises the USA? [1]: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/shell-defends-decision-to-buy-discounted-oil-from-russia.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/shell-defends-decision-to-bu... [2]: https://inews.co.uk/news/government-accused-of-absurd-sanctions-loophole-after-giving-russian-bank-customers-30-days-to-wind-down-assets-1490017 https://inews.co.uk/news/government-accused-of-absurd-sancti... [3]: https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/02/28/italy-quietly-removes-its-luxury-items-from-nato-sanction-list-others-to-follow-suit/ https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/02/28/italy-quietly-removes-i... [4]: https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-russian-firms-rush-open-chinese-bank-accounts-sanctions-bite-sources-2022-03-03/ https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-russian-firms-rus... [5]: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-venezuela-discuss-easing-sanctions-make-little-progress-sources-2022-03-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-venezuela-discuss-... [6]: https://archive.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/170-sanctions/41952.html https://archive.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/1...
- joshspankit 5y agoI have a particular (and somewhat unique) relationship to this number: I grew up in Alberta Canada and remember I heard that extracting oil from the oils sands became profitable at $16/barrel. I was very relieved that oil typically hovered around $10/barrel. Even then I knew the oil sands were a nightmare. Of course, eventually two things happened: someone in the government subsidized the oil companies and price jumped high enough. Both of those facts quickly turned Canada from “that place with all the polite people” to “The giant pimple on Earth’s face”. I do not like this oil number. It reminds me of too much that’s wrong with this country.