9 ms·

The downside of encouraging ‘the fight’ on the streets of Ukraine

39 points by nikolay 5y ago

NoPie 5y ago
While there are risks and many attempts are foolish, everybody should have realized by now that Putin will not stop in Ukraine unless he is crushed. Not to engage military is even bigger mistake and will only lead to prolonged war and more deaths and suffering. It was not Biden's mistake that the war was started. Putin only used it as a pretext. It is a simple war of aggression that would have happened anyway.
- csee 5y ago
  Why the downvotes? Putin said as much in his invasion speech. Lukashenko's invasion map literally had Moldova as the next invasion target. Wake up people.
  - NoPie 5y ago
    We have surprising many Putin bots or just naive followers.
    - ianai 5y ago
      Too bad icann didn't see this as a problem...imagine how the misinformation problem and cyberwarfare would diminish if they had been disconnected from the greater internet?
    - honkdaddy 5y ago
      HN doesn't allow downvotes for accounts with less than 500 karma. While I don't doubt there's considerable Russian astroturfing on FB or Twitter, I'm pretty skeptical that the Kremlin employs similar tactics here. Spambots or paid shills would stick out like a sore thumb.
      - ttttttthu66ttt 5y ago
        They are sticking out like a sore thumb.
        NoPie 5y ago
        I noticed that when I write something like this, I immediately get downvotes. Then gradually as discussion developed I get upvoted. To me it seems that there really are vigilantes who are doing this for whatever reason. The same could be said about certain articles. For example, that Facebook allows to praise the Azov battalion. It is a controversial thing that Ukrainians shouldn't be proud of, but it has been explained already how the praise is allowed – not with regards to neo-nazi ideology but only when mentioned as part of regular armed forces where this battalion was incorporated to control them. And yet despite the explanation this article come up again and again which makes me think for concerted effort to spread anti-Ukrainian narrative.
      - NoPie 5y ago
        It is not that simple. Even the Guardian noticed that antivax bots are now silent and have switched to pro-Russian narrative. And many naive people are following them. I used to be tolerant of antivax views on the grounds of the freedom of speech even though personally I am strictly pro-vax. Today I was unpleasantly surprised that they are now quoting all this rubbish how the war in Ukraine is the mistake of the west and globalisation etc. It was from people whom I would expect the least to take pro-Putin stance. I know they are not bots but how could they have changed their narrative overnight? I guess some people are really so gullible and easily absorb all rubbish whether it is antivax or pro-Putin. This is even more interesting that the vaccination coverage is Ukraine is really low (less than 50%) and there are many reasons for this, historic problems, distrust in authorities, weak medical system, and also antivax bots. Nevertheless, antivax and Ukraine independence are completely different issues. It does not make sense logically to connect one with another. And yet, a lot of so called contrarians do and it is not due to strong analytical skills.
        dmpk2k 5y ago
        But the pro-vax people are talking about Ukraine too, so not exactly compelling evidence.
  - zthrowaway 5y ago
    My guess for the downvotes is the claim this isn’t Biden’s fault. There’s a large camp of people who think the US is forcing Ukraine into this position by egging on Russia. I don’t think that’s the case personally. One thing I do think Biden did wrong was shut down the keystone pipeline and forcing us to buy oil from Russia as a result, which gave Russia a great way to fund a war campaign.
    - XorNot 5y ago
      The US is still oil independent - the keystone pipeline didn't change a thing in that regard (how could it? If you can ship oil from Russia, you can ship it from slightly further north in your own continent. Oil is a fungible commodity though: the price is effected by global demand - as I noted in a previous thread on this exact subject, the idea of "independence" and "dependence" both mean nothing so long as private enterprise can own the resource and faces no restrictions on its export.
      - zthrowaway 5y ago
        Okay, makes sense. But how does that negate us giving Russia a war chest of money the past year?
        ModernMech 5y ago
        They’ve been seizing all of that money. It’s mostly unavailable at this point.
        rsfern 5y ago
        If you mean Russian oil exports, I thought the bulk of those went to Europe and China. It looks like 8 or 9% of US oil imports have been coming from Russia. About half our imports are from Canada. I’m not sure what percentage of US oil usage would be Russian import, but it doesn’t seem like “war chest” level? https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0... Edit: on further inspection, it does seem like a large dollar amount. And if you look at 2019 numbers, we imported a much larger fraction from Russia than in 2021. I still think much more Russian oil goes to Europe
- baybal2 5y ago
  > It was not Biden's mistake that the war was started. Putin only used it as a pretext. It is a simple war of aggression that would have happened anyway. It was President Biden who said it openly "we know Russia will invade Ukraine," the intel I believe Putin leaked purposefully to probe US response, and then said that "there will be no US boots on the ground" before the invasion has even started. This reassured Russian political establishment of not only US military not doing anything, but also about US political establishment being comfortable with that. Indicating that you know a credible threat is coming well ahead of time, and then doing nothing all that time is a terrible diplomatic move, which signalled Putin of US already "coming to terms with the inevitable." You never state your red lines.
  - ModernMech 5y ago
    > This reassured Russian political establishment of not only US military not doing anything, but also about US political establishment being comfortable with that. If you want to talk about the American political establishment reassuring Putin, talk about former President Trump calling him a genius and savvy, the former Secretary of State saying he admired Putin as he was amassing equipment on Ukraine’s border, and the right airing fawning praise for Putin over the past 6 years. Seriously, American political media that is airing on Russian state TV right now is already celebrating that Republicans are taking over in the Fall, and these same Republicans are on TV all but claiming fealty to Putin. They spent the last 6 years spreading Russian propaganda that their hacking of the 2016 election was either a hoax, or if it wasn’t than it was Ukraine’s fault. The former US President attempted to extort a bribe from the Ukrainians and withheld the very weapons they knew they needed for a moment just as this. And talk about signals, Zelensky wanted a signal from Trump to Putin that America supported Ukraine in the form of a White House visit. This visit was denied and never occurred. What kind of signal did that send to Putin about American support for Ukraine? His party (the same people on TV “asking questions” as to why we should hate Putin so much) defended him for that and claimed it was his right to do so! Trump stood right next to Putin and acted like a beat dog as he claimed he trusted Putin and believed Putin did not hack the DNC in 2016. My God, this is happening today because Mitt Romney called Russia America’s number one geopolitical foe and the rest of his party scoffed and laughed and took a trip to Moscow on July 4. The problem today is that a huge contingent of people think that Russian style oligarchy would be a great model to bring here. Mostly very rich people like Peter Thiel, Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump, who mused he’d like to be America’s “President for Life” just like Putin. They have been signaling for years now that they want to be part of a new alliance of autocrats including Russia, Brazil, the UAE, Hungary, Saudi Arabia, and India. They would much prefer we abandon NATO, our European allies, and instead side with the rising tide of autocracy happening across the globe. You don’t get an invasion of Ukraine without that context.
XorNot 5y ago
Remember folks, the best way to halt a Russian invasion of your homeland is to apparently not fight them. If pundits weren't so regularly stupid I'd almost think this was paid for propaganda.
- random_upvoter 5y ago
  Can you tell me about the last time that the city you live in was shelled by artillery? What did it feel like? Were you tempted to consider surrender in return for cessation of hostilities?
  - NoPie 5y ago
    For my country the last time was the WW2 and the people fought against Germany. I wonder if they think that it would have been better not to fight against Hitler as well?
  - throw_m239339 5y ago
    > Can you tell me about the last time that the city you live in was shelled by artillery? Never because likely NATO has got his back, which the same NATO isn't giving Ukraine when they expressly demand NATO assistance. > What did it feel like? Were you tempted to consider surrender in return for cessation of hostilities? That must certainly feels like a betrayal for Ukrainians.
- celticninja 5y ago
  Yup, what a stupid take. Avoid wars, let the agressor win. It's like one of those stupid DIY 5 minutes tiktoks
  - smoyer 5y ago
    We laid down our arms and embraced our invaders and you won't believe what happened next! When I was relatively young, my mom was against violence and wanted me to talk things out with some kids that were bullying me. Things didn't improve until I beat a few of them up. Putin has implied he's cornered and therefore overly aggressive in a story from his childhood where he's chasing a huge rat. We need to slam the door on his nose.
celticninja 5y ago
It is precisely because of the tactics they used in places like Chechnya that the people are fighting back. They know that occupation or being a puppet state means corruotion at the highest levels and death for anyone that disagrees.
- random_upvoter 5y ago
  > It is precisely because of the tactics they used in places like Chechnya that the people are fighting back. Some people are fighting back, mostly young men of somewhat courageous disposition. Also 1,2 million Ukrainians have already fled the country which far exceeds the number of Ukrainian combatants. I'm sure some of them would see surrender as a better outcome than loosing their homes and home country. I also heard stories about men between 18 and 60 who weren't even allowed to leave the country, so that number would be even higher if this demographic was given a free choice.
  - christkv 5y ago
    They are not allowed to leave because general mobilization has been called. Pretty common in all countries that have mobilization laws.
    - random_upvoter 5y ago
      So if you are a young man in Ukraine and you have no stomach to get sacrificed in a geopolitical game between the West and Russia you should be given no way to opt out?
      - christkv 5y ago
        That’s how those laws work yeah. In practice you won’t see military action unless you have previous training because you are a liability in combat. But you’ll for sure be building tank traps, filling sandbags, digging trenches and moving supplies.
      - sidewndr46 5y ago
christkv 5y ago
Whatever you stand is on the war support the civilians with supplies and anything needed. There are tons of organizations that will collect supplies in Europe and ensure it gets to where it’s needed.
galfarragem 5y ago
Unpopular opinion here: Two guys (or gals) are fighting. One has a pistol. The other is bare hands. You are watching. What should you do? Give him a pistol? While one has a pistol but the other hasn't, the odds of somebody dying/get injured are minimal. If both have a pistol, odds are somebody will die or get really injured. Probably both. Does it worth? They will sleep on this and tomorrow nobody may care anymore. Putin is guilty of starting this war (should be bashed to hell) but Zelenski is being a courageous irresponsable by allowing his country to be destroyed and his people to die. He didn't do his homework and is betting everything now. EU and US are giving him guns..
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- rsfern 5y ago
  So Ukraine should just welcome their new Russian overlords? Or is there an alternative to fighting that you’re proposing?
  - galfarragem 5y ago
    Another unpopular opinion here: Tomorrow would be another day of life. Probably the elites would feel the difference, but, for the common people, tomorrow would be exactly the same. > Or is there an alternative to fighting that you’re proposing? Diplomacy.
    - bergie 5y ago
      > tomorrow would be exactly the same. Right now Ukraine is a democracy with free press etc. Under Russian occupation you'd have dictatorship, death squads, the whole country looted. Exactly the same, sure.
      - galfarragem 5y ago
        Post-soviet Russians are demanding a different political system. I believe Putin will the be the last of his kind there.
artem247 5y ago
jillesvangurp 5y ago
It's hopeless until it is not. I've been wrong at every turn in the lead-up to the invasion and after. I did not believe Putin would invade. Then I did not believe he would invade the whole country. And then I believed he would succeed rapidly. And then I did not believe that Putin would start firing heavy artillery on cities. And when he did, I thought that would work for him. Wrong every time. He invaded. It got very brutal. And he got bogged down fighting a fight that he should have won a long time ago by now but clearly did not. So, right now, I still see some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel for the Ukrainians. My reasoning is that at this point anything that buys the Ukrainians time is a good thing. They have a few things going for them: the Russian army is obviously compensating for their poor coordination, preparation, and incompetence with massive brutality. Consequently, morale is probably very low and probably dropping rapidly in the Russian army at least among most soldiers. Their generals and officers are muppets. Their orders are clearly bullshit. And they are taking heavy casualties for a leader that seems to have completely lost it lately for a cause that is seemingly about attacking people living in a country where many of them may have friends and relatives. Not good. Ranking officers probably don't believe in this war at this point, if they ever did. And their generals at this point are probably getting very concerned about who of them the finger is going to be pointed at by whom and what will happen to those people. Additionally, Putin will be dealing with some very serious domestic economic issues very soon. Body bags with dead Russians and weeping widows and mothers are not going to be helpful either. He'll be under a lot of pressure to fix things quickly and it is doubtful he can fix a lot. Russians were happy to have him while he took care of them, took care of their pensions, kept up appearances, etc. But plunging a country into chaos is never a recipe for surviving if you are an autocratic leader. In short, that's a recipe for a revolution. Add hordes of pissed off oligarchs recently divorced from their jets, foreign property, and bank accounts to the mix and you have a potent mix for that and a perfect storm for exactly that to happen. And of course the Russian mafia needs some access to international markets as well to function. This war is bad for business for everyone; including all the people that keep Putin in power. Who is this at this point exactly? A revolution would not unprecedented in Russia. Just ask Gorbachev, he's still around. I might be wrong about the Russian's ability to get themselves out of this mess of course. So, a good strategy for the Ukrainians would be buying as much time as they can get themselves. Since they have nothing left to loose, a lot of them are probably not going to bother with alternate strategies regardless of what happens. Capitulation seems unlikely. Unlike the Russians, they are highly motivated and determined. And they seem to be digging in for a long fight. I'm not sure they'll even have to fight that long. Putin might not last more than a few weeks the way things are currently going. Right now the number one concern that probably keeps him up at night is wondering which of his friends will be the one to stick the proverbial knife in his back. Actually, this whole move to invade the Ukraine might be rooted in paranoia about exactly that. This is not a strong leader anymore but a weak leader that fears for his life that is acting erratically. The west is not powerless. We have some powerful sticks and carrots. Those economic sanctions are clearly very worrying to Russians in all layers of society. And the carrot is that those could sanctions could be lifted. Also, Ukrainians are getting some supplies from the west and they are clearly helping to buy more time. Putin doesn't have an endless amount of time. His credibility and popularity are at an all time low at this point and dropping by the hour. The problem for Putin is that he has plenty of stick but no carrot. And those wielding the sticks might turn against him. He has very few good moves left. The ultimate carrot for Putin could simply be a safe retirement in some country. Not a bad plan. Several dictators have done that before him. I think Russia even harbors a few. So, he'd be well familiar with that plan and probably has planned such a thing years ago. Again, I might be wrong and I don't have a great track record predicting things lately.
danbruc 5y ago
Putin clearly stated that an eastward expansion of NATO is considered a security thread to Russia and is unacceptable. This was ignored and NATO decided that Ukraine will eventually become a NATO member. This is an obvious conflict between Ukraine's rights as a sovereign state and Russia's security interests. For the west this is no big deal, NATO is a defensive alliance and poses no threat to Russia, Russia on the other hand does not buy this. This is, at least to a certain extend, a similar situation as during the Cuban Missile Crisis. How would the USA react today - or maybe better fifteen years ago to ignore the effects of the Ukraine conflict - to an Russian attempt to have missiles in Cuba? Would we believe that it is purely for defensive reasons? This might have been avoidable, while it is impossible that both parties get what they desire, there might have been a compromise. Now with the war this probably becomes much harder, Ukraine has more reasons for a NATO membership, Russia has more reasons not to want Ukraine in the NATO. Now the question is whether Ukraine has a chance to win the war. If they do not, it would probably really be the best option to just surrender. But judging the chances of that seems really hard at the moment because it depends on the amount of support from the west, the effects of the sanctions and the reaction of the Russian population, on China's position, on the kind of war that Russia is willing to fight, ...
- nico_h 5y ago
  Nobody can win this war. Ukraine’s military is not strong enough. Russia can’t win this war short of ethnic cleansing which would result in even stronger sanctions from the west. It’s a lose lose situation.
  - danbruc 5y ago
    Most wars are probably lose lose situations, at least in a certain sense. When I wrote win I meant Ukraine not being controlled by Russia. Even though those scenarios are probably not likely, there are certainly some imaginable scenarios. There could be a diplomatic solution or Putin could give up due to internal opposition or for economic reasons. If there was a no-fly zone, maybe the Ukraine could have a fighting chance. NATO is obviously very reluctant to enforce one, but maybe non-NATO countries could be encouraged to do this. The outlook is certainly bleak but there will be an outcome.
foogazi 5y ago
More appeasement BS > Washington and Brussels should create an incentive for Russia to stop before wrecking Ukraine’s major cities. Are there examples of similar lines of thought in other conflicts ? Was Europe looking for Bush/Obama off-ramps in Iraq or Afghanistan that would allow the US to save face?

39 points by nikolay 5y ago

While there are risks and many attempts are foolish, everybody should have realized by now that Putin will not stop in Ukraine unless he is crushed. Not to engage military is even bigger mistake and will only lead to prolonged war and more deaths and suffering. It was not Biden's mistake that the war was started. Putin only used it as a pretext. It is a simple war of aggression that would have happened anyway.

csee 5y ago
Why the downvotes? Putin said as much in his invasion speech. Lukashenko's invasion map literally had Moldova as the next invasion target. Wake up people.
- NoPie 5y ago
  We have surprising many Putin bots or just naive followers.
  - ianai 5y ago
    Too bad icann didn't see this as a problem...imagine how the misinformation problem and cyberwarfare would diminish if they had been disconnected from the greater internet?
  - honkdaddy 5y ago
    HN doesn't allow downvotes for accounts with less than 500 karma. While I don't doubt there's considerable Russian astroturfing on FB or Twitter, I'm pretty skeptical that the Kremlin employs similar tactics here. Spambots or paid shills would stick out like a sore thumb.
    - ttttttthu66ttt 5y ago
      They are sticking out like a sore thumb.
      - NoPie 5y ago
        I noticed that when I write something like this, I immediately get downvotes. Then gradually as discussion developed I get upvoted. To me it seems that there really are vigilantes who are doing this for whatever reason. The same could be said about certain articles. For example, that Facebook allows to praise the Azov battalion. It is a controversial thing that Ukrainians shouldn't be proud of, but it has been explained already how the praise is allowed – not with regards to neo-nazi ideology but only when mentioned as part of regular armed forces where this battalion was incorporated to control them. And yet despite the explanation this article come up again and again which makes me think for concerted effort to spread anti-Ukrainian narrative.
    - NoPie 5y ago
      It is not that simple. Even the Guardian noticed that antivax bots are now silent and have switched to pro-Russian narrative. And many naive people are following them. I used to be tolerant of antivax views on the grounds of the freedom of speech even though personally I am strictly pro-vax. Today I was unpleasantly surprised that they are now quoting all this rubbish how the war in Ukraine is the mistake of the west and globalisation etc. It was from people whom I would expect the least to take pro-Putin stance. I know they are not bots but how could they have changed their narrative overnight? I guess some people are really so gullible and easily absorb all rubbish whether it is antivax or pro-Putin. This is even more interesting that the vaccination coverage is Ukraine is really low (less than 50%) and there are many reasons for this, historic problems, distrust in authorities, weak medical system, and also antivax bots. Nevertheless, antivax and Ukraine independence are completely different issues. It does not make sense logically to connect one with another. And yet, a lot of so called contrarians do and it is not due to strong analytical skills.
      - dmpk2k 5y ago
        But the pro-vax people are talking about Ukraine too, so not exactly compelling evidence.
- zthrowaway 5y ago
  My guess for the downvotes is the claim this isn’t Biden’s fault. There’s a large camp of people who think the US is forcing Ukraine into this position by egging on Russia. I don’t think that’s the case personally. One thing I do think Biden did wrong was shut down the keystone pipeline and forcing us to buy oil from Russia as a result, which gave Russia a great way to fund a war campaign.
  - XorNot 5y ago
    The US is still oil independent - the keystone pipeline didn't change a thing in that regard (how could it? If you can ship oil from Russia, you can ship it from slightly further north in your own continent. Oil is a fungible commodity though: the price is effected by global demand - as I noted in a previous thread on this exact subject, the idea of "independence" and "dependence" both mean nothing so long as private enterprise can own the resource and faces no restrictions on its export.
    - zthrowaway 5y ago
      Okay, makes sense. But how does that negate us giving Russia a war chest of money the past year?
      - ModernMech 5y ago
        They’ve been seizing all of that money. It’s mostly unavailable at this point.
      - rsfern 5y ago
        If you mean Russian oil exports, I thought the bulk of those went to Europe and China. It looks like 8 or 9% of US oil imports have been coming from Russia. About half our imports are from Canada. I’m not sure what percentage of US oil usage would be Russian import, but it doesn’t seem like “war chest” level? https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0... Edit: on further inspection, it does seem like a large dollar amount. And if you look at 2019 numbers, we imported a much larger fraction from Russia than in 2021. I still think much more Russian oil goes to Europe
baybal2 5y ago
> It was not Biden's mistake that the war was started. Putin only used it as a pretext. It is a simple war of aggression that would have happened anyway. It was President Biden who said it openly "we know Russia will invade Ukraine," the intel I believe Putin leaked purposefully to probe US response, and then said that "there will be no US boots on the ground" before the invasion has even started. This reassured Russian political establishment of not only US military not doing anything, but also about US political establishment being comfortable with that. Indicating that you know a credible threat is coming well ahead of time, and then doing nothing all that time is a terrible diplomatic move, which signalled Putin of US already "coming to terms with the inevitable." You never state your red lines.
- ModernMech 5y ago
  > This reassured Russian political establishment of not only US military not doing anything, but also about US political establishment being comfortable with that. If you want to talk about the American political establishment reassuring Putin, talk about former President Trump calling him a genius and savvy, the former Secretary of State saying he admired Putin as he was amassing equipment on Ukraine’s border, and the right airing fawning praise for Putin over the past 6 years. Seriously, American political media that is airing on Russian state TV right now is already celebrating that Republicans are taking over in the Fall, and these same Republicans are on TV all but claiming fealty to Putin. They spent the last 6 years spreading Russian propaganda that their hacking of the 2016 election was either a hoax, or if it wasn’t than it was Ukraine’s fault. The former US President attempted to extort a bribe from the Ukrainians and withheld the very weapons they knew they needed for a moment just as this. And talk about signals, Zelensky wanted a signal from Trump to Putin that America supported Ukraine in the form of a White House visit. This visit was denied and never occurred. What kind of signal did that send to Putin about American support for Ukraine? His party (the same people on TV “asking questions” as to why we should hate Putin so much) defended him for that and claimed it was his right to do so! Trump stood right next to Putin and acted like a beat dog as he claimed he trusted Putin and believed Putin did not hack the DNC in 2016. My God, this is happening today because Mitt Romney called Russia America’s number one geopolitical foe and the rest of his party scoffed and laughed and took a trip to Moscow on July 4. The problem today is that a huge contingent of people think that Russian style oligarchy would be a great model to bring here. Mostly very rich people like Peter Thiel, Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump, who mused he’d like to be America’s “President for Life” just like Putin. They have been signaling for years now that they want to be part of a new alliance of autocrats including Russia, Brazil, the UAE, Hungary, Saudi Arabia, and India. They would much prefer we abandon NATO, our European allies, and instead side with the rising tide of autocracy happening across the globe. You don’t get an invasion of Ukraine without that context.

XorNot 5y ago

Remember folks, the best way to halt a Russian invasion of your homeland is to apparently not fight them. If pundits weren't so regularly stupid I'd almost think this was paid for propaganda.

random_upvoter 5y ago
Can you tell me about the last time that the city you live in was shelled by artillery? What did it feel like? Were you tempted to consider surrender in return for cessation of hostilities?
- NoPie 5y ago
  For my country the last time was the WW2 and the people fought against Germany. I wonder if they think that it would have been better not to fight against Hitler as well?
- throw_m239339 5y ago
  > Can you tell me about the last time that the city you live in was shelled by artillery? Never because likely NATO has got his back, which the same NATO isn't giving Ukraine when they expressly demand NATO assistance. > What did it feel like? Were you tempted to consider surrender in return for cessation of hostilities? That must certainly feels like a betrayal for Ukrainians.
celticninja 5y ago
Yup, what a stupid take. Avoid wars, let the agressor win. It's like one of those stupid DIY 5 minutes tiktoks
- smoyer 5y ago
  We laid down our arms and embraced our invaders and you won't believe what happened next! When I was relatively young, my mom was against violence and wanted me to talk things out with some kids that were bullying me. Things didn't improve until I beat a few of them up. Putin has implied he's cornered and therefore overly aggressive in a story from his childhood where he's chasing a huge rat. We need to slam the door on his nose.

celticninja 5y ago

It is precisely because of the tactics they used in places like Chechnya that the people are fighting back. They know that occupation or being a puppet state means corruotion at the highest levels and death for anyone that disagrees.

random_upvoter 5y ago
> It is precisely because of the tactics they used in places like Chechnya that the people are fighting back. Some people are fighting back, mostly young men of somewhat courageous disposition. Also 1,2 million Ukrainians have already fled the country which far exceeds the number of Ukrainian combatants. I'm sure some of them would see surrender as a better outcome than loosing their homes and home country. I also heard stories about men between 18 and 60 who weren't even allowed to leave the country, so that number would be even higher if this demographic was given a free choice.
- christkv 5y ago
  They are not allowed to leave because general mobilization has been called. Pretty common in all countries that have mobilization laws.
  - random_upvoter 5y ago
    So if you are a young man in Ukraine and you have no stomach to get sacrificed in a geopolitical game between the West and Russia you should be given no way to opt out?
    - christkv 5y ago
      That’s how those laws work yeah. In practice you won’t see military action unless you have previous training because you are a liability in combat. But you’ll for sure be building tank traps, filling sandbags, digging trenches and moving supplies.
    - sidewndr46 5y ago

christkv 5y ago

Whatever you stand is on the war support the civilians with supplies and anything needed. There are tons of organizations that will collect supplies in Europe and ensure it gets to where it’s needed.

galfarragem 5y ago

Unpopular opinion here: Two guys (or gals) are fighting. One has a pistol. The other is bare hands. You are watching. What should you do? Give him a pistol? While one has a pistol but the other hasn't, the odds of somebody dying/get injured are minimal. If both have a pistol, odds are somebody will die or get really injured. Probably both. Does it worth? They will sleep on this and tomorrow nobody may care anymore. Putin is guilty of starting this war (should be bashed to hell) but Zelenski is being a courageous irresponsable by allowing his country to be destroyed and his people to die. He didn't do his homework and is betting everything now. EU and US are giving him guns..

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
rsfern 5y ago
So Ukraine should just welcome their new Russian overlords? Or is there an alternative to fighting that you’re proposing?
- galfarragem 5y ago
  Another unpopular opinion here: Tomorrow would be another day of life. Probably the elites would feel the difference, but, for the common people, tomorrow would be exactly the same. > Or is there an alternative to fighting that you’re proposing? Diplomacy.
  - bergie 5y ago
    > tomorrow would be exactly the same. Right now Ukraine is a democracy with free press etc. Under Russian occupation you'd have dictatorship, death squads, the whole country looted. Exactly the same, sure.
    - galfarragem 5y ago
      Post-soviet Russians are demanding a different political system. I believe Putin will the be the last of his kind there.

artem247 5y ago

jillesvangurp 5y ago

It's hopeless until it is not. I've been wrong at every turn in the lead-up to the invasion and after. I did not believe Putin would invade. Then I did not believe he would invade the whole country. And then I believed he would succeed rapidly. And then I did not believe that Putin would start firing heavy artillery on cities. And when he did, I thought that would work for him. Wrong every time. He invaded. It got very brutal. And he got bogged down fighting a fight that he should have won a long time ago by now but clearly did not. So, right now, I still see some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel for the Ukrainians. My reasoning is that at this point anything that buys the Ukrainians time is a good thing. They have a few things going for them: the Russian army is obviously compensating for their poor coordination, preparation, and incompetence with massive brutality. Consequently, morale is probably very low and probably dropping rapidly in the Russian army at least among most soldiers. Their generals and officers are muppets. Their orders are clearly bullshit. And they are taking heavy casualties for a leader that seems to have completely lost it lately for a cause that is seemingly about attacking people living in a country where many of them may have friends and relatives. Not good. Ranking officers probably don't believe in this war at this point, if they ever did. And their generals at this point are probably getting very concerned about who of them the finger is going to be pointed at by whom and what will happen to those people. Additionally, Putin will be dealing with some very serious domestic economic issues very soon. Body bags with dead Russians and weeping widows and mothers are not going to be helpful either. He'll be under a lot of pressure to fix things quickly and it is doubtful he can fix a lot. Russians were happy to have him while he took care of them, took care of their pensions, kept up appearances, etc. But plunging a country into chaos is never a recipe for surviving if you are an autocratic leader. In short, that's a recipe for a revolution. Add hordes of pissed off oligarchs recently divorced from their jets, foreign property, and bank accounts to the mix and you have a potent mix for that and a perfect storm for exactly that to happen. And of course the Russian mafia needs some access to international markets as well to function. This war is bad for business for everyone; including all the people that keep Putin in power. Who is this at this point exactly? A revolution would not unprecedented in Russia. Just ask Gorbachev, he's still around. I might be wrong about the Russian's ability to get themselves out of this mess of course. So, a good strategy for the Ukrainians would be buying as much time as they can get themselves. Since they have nothing left to loose, a lot of them are probably not going to bother with alternate strategies regardless of what happens. Capitulation seems unlikely. Unlike the Russians, they are highly motivated and determined. And they seem to be digging in for a long fight. I'm not sure they'll even have to fight that long. Putin might not last more than a few weeks the way things are currently going. Right now the number one concern that probably keeps him up at night is wondering which of his friends will be the one to stick the proverbial knife in his back. Actually, this whole move to invade the Ukraine might be rooted in paranoia about exactly that. This is not a strong leader anymore but a weak leader that fears for his life that is acting erratically. The west is not powerless. We have some powerful sticks and carrots. Those economic sanctions are clearly very worrying to Russians in all layers of society. And the carrot is that those could sanctions could be lifted. Also, Ukrainians are getting some supplies from the west and they are clearly helping to buy more time. Putin doesn't have an endless amount of time. His credibility and popularity are at an all time low at this point and dropping by the hour. The problem for Putin is that he has plenty of stick but no carrot. And those wielding the sticks might turn against him. He has very few good moves left. The ultimate carrot for Putin could simply be a safe retirement in some country. Not a bad plan. Several dictators have done that before him. I think Russia even harbors a few. So, he'd be well familiar with that plan and probably has planned such a thing years ago. Again, I might be wrong and I don't have a great track record predicting things lately.

danbruc 5y ago

Putin clearly stated that an eastward expansion of NATO is considered a security thread to Russia and is unacceptable. This was ignored and NATO decided that Ukraine will eventually become a NATO member. This is an obvious conflict between Ukraine's rights as a sovereign state and Russia's security interests. For the west this is no big deal, NATO is a defensive alliance and poses no threat to Russia, Russia on the other hand does not buy this. This is, at least to a certain extend, a similar situation as during the Cuban Missile Crisis. How would the USA react today - or maybe better fifteen years ago to ignore the effects of the Ukraine conflict - to an Russian attempt to have missiles in Cuba? Would we believe that it is purely for defensive reasons? This might have been avoidable, while it is impossible that both parties get what they desire, there might have been a compromise. Now with the war this probably becomes much harder, Ukraine has more reasons for a NATO membership, Russia has more reasons not to want Ukraine in the NATO. Now the question is whether Ukraine has a chance to win the war. If they do not, it would probably really be the best option to just surrender. But judging the chances of that seems really hard at the moment because it depends on the amount of support from the west, the effects of the sanctions and the reaction of the Russian population, on China's position, on the kind of war that Russia is willing to fight, ...

nico_h 5y ago
Nobody can win this war. Ukraine’s military is not strong enough. Russia can’t win this war short of ethnic cleansing which would result in even stronger sanctions from the west. It’s a lose lose situation.
- danbruc 5y ago
  Most wars are probably lose lose situations, at least in a certain sense. When I wrote win I meant Ukraine not being controlled by Russia. Even though those scenarios are probably not likely, there are certainly some imaginable scenarios. There could be a diplomatic solution or Putin could give up due to internal opposition or for economic reasons. If there was a no-fly zone, maybe the Ukraine could have a fighting chance. NATO is obviously very reluctant to enforce one, but maybe non-NATO countries could be encouraged to do this. The outlook is certainly bleak but there will be an outcome.

foogazi 5y ago

More appeasement BS > Washington and Brussels should create an incentive for Russia to stop before wrecking Ukraine’s major cities. Are there examples of similar lines of thought in other conflicts ? Was Europe looking for Bush/Obama off-ramps in Iraq or Afghanistan that would allow the US to save face?