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Container shipping is about to be reduced, Maersk just announced that they would only ship food to Russia going forward. Aviation in Russia might come mostly to

by _ph_ 5y ago

Container shipping is about to be reduced, Maersk just announced that they would only ship food to Russia going forward. Aviation in Russia might come mostly to a halt. About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, the rest is running out of spare parts quickly.

twelve40 5y ago
So now we are all of a sudden in the "might come to a halt" hypothetical. Ok. First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air traffic to something like Covid days-level. There are a lot of hypotheticals in this thread, facts on the ground right now are, the planes are flying, cargo ships are delivering and all but 7 banks are moving the money across the borders just fine.
- konart 5y ago
  > First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Home-build - maybe, but not without parts from the US\EU, not to mention most of the production equipment is not Russian too and you have to maintain it or replace it at somepoint. Oh and to build something you need materials - some are local, some will have to be replaced if possible. This will be a huge problem, especially in a country with strong corruption tradition.
  - twelve40 5y ago
    Ok, at some point, sure, maybe.
  - cudgy 5y ago
    Or salvage parts and engines from the leased Boeings if they are comparable.
    - _ph_ 5y ago
      That would assume they are willing to break their contract and not returning the machines. Which they can do, but then they will never be able to lease a machine again. At best, this buys them a couple of months of operations.
      - cudgy 5y ago
        You underestimate the shortsightedness and short memories of businessmen when shown a pile of cash, especially at companies like Boeing and other defense manufacturers.
        _ph_ 5y ago
        The businessmen might think of their wallets first, but as long as the sanctions last, they cannot send spare parts to Russia. Also, the defense manufacturers are currently quite happy with the increased defense spendings. Whatever the US role in the events in Ukraine was, for sure they won't let Russia off the hook easily after this invasion.
- robin_reala 5y ago
  Home-built doesn’t mean “all parts produced in Russia”. And it just takes a handful of parts to be included in sanctions – especially with just-in-time manufacturing – for an entire production line to grind to a halt.
  - twelve40 5y ago
    There are about half a dozen SSJs and MC-21s produced every month, let's check back in a couple of months from now, and see if those lines ground to a halt or doubled their production. I'm curious myself!
    - _ph_ 5y ago
      And how many of them are using home built engines and not engines bought in the west?
usr1106 5y ago
> About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, Putin will make a law that returning airplanes to abroad is illegal. Foreigners have not been allowed to sell Russian shares already nearly a week. So nothing new there. They cannot fly to most countries anyway, so the risk of getting them confiscated while landed somewhere is small.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- _ph_ 5y ago
  Well, yes, they can keep and operate them illegally. Short term: problem solved. Long term: its even worse.
  - aix1 5y ago
    Exactly. It'll be a slow and steady decline in terms of safety, pilot training and so on.
  - pbhjpbhj 5y ago
    It might be immoral, but surely keeping they planes will be legal by some means, executive fiat or whatever. Is there international treaties covering such things? Mind, I'm from the UK our government just ignore international law when they like and only to please their own ends, not even in times of crisis, so can't see something as simple as breaking a treaty will cause any change here.

by _ph_ 5y ago

twelve40 5y ago

So now we are all of a sudden in the "might come to a halt" hypothetical. Ok. First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air traffic to something like Covid days-level. There are a lot of hypotheticals in this thread, facts on the ground right now are, the planes are flying, cargo ships are delivering and all but 7 banks are moving the money across the borders just fine.

konart 5y ago
> First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Home-build - maybe, but not without parts from the US\EU, not to mention most of the production equipment is not Russian too and you have to maintain it or replace it at somepoint. Oh and to build something you need materials - some are local, some will have to be replaced if possible. This will be a huge problem, especially in a country with strong corruption tradition.
- twelve40 5y ago
  Ok, at some point, sure, maybe.
- cudgy 5y ago
  Or salvage parts and engines from the leased Boeings if they are comparable.
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    That would assume they are willing to break their contract and not returning the machines. Which they can do, but then they will never be able to lease a machine again. At best, this buys them a couple of months of operations.
    - cudgy 5y ago
      You underestimate the shortsightedness and short memories of businessmen when shown a pile of cash, especially at companies like Boeing and other defense manufacturers.
      - _ph_ 5y ago
        The businessmen might think of their wallets first, but as long as the sanctions last, they cannot send spare parts to Russia. Also, the defense manufacturers are currently quite happy with the increased defense spendings. Whatever the US role in the events in Ukraine was, for sure they won't let Russia off the hook easily after this invasion.
robin_reala 5y ago
Home-built doesn’t mean “all parts produced in Russia”. And it just takes a handful of parts to be included in sanctions – especially with just-in-time manufacturing – for an entire production line to grind to a halt.
- twelve40 5y ago
  There are about half a dozen SSJs and MC-21s produced every month, let's check back in a couple of months from now, and see if those lines ground to a halt or doubled their production. I'm curious myself!
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    And how many of them are using home built engines and not engines bought in the west?

usr1106 5y ago

> About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, Putin will make a law that returning airplanes to abroad is illegal. Foreigners have not been allowed to sell Russian shares already nearly a week. So nothing new there. They cannot fly to most countries anyway, so the risk of getting them confiscated while landed somewhere is small.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
_ph_ 5y ago
Well, yes, they can keep and operate them illegally. Short term: problem solved. Long term: its even worse.
- aix1 5y ago
  Exactly. It'll be a slow and steady decline in terms of safety, pilot training and so on.
- pbhjpbhj 5y ago
  It might be immoral, but surely keeping they planes will be legal by some means, executive fiat or whatever. Is there international treaties covering such things? Mind, I'm from the UK our government just ignore international law when they like and only to please their own ends, not even in times of crisis, so can't see something as simple as breaking a treaty will cause any change here.