4 ms·

there are plenty of planes flying in and out, container ships delivering, and cross border payments happening, right now.

viraptor 5y ago
Not for long potentially. I don't have the link right now, but someone posted an interesting thread on Twitter how to fly planes you need a lot of international support. Down to things like supply of replacement parts and access to repair manuals. Their estimate (not sure if accurate) is that in 3 weeks, domestic aviation in Russia will become very hard to run. (Boing and Airbus already suspended providing replacement parts) I haven't heard anything about impact on container ships yet, so curious what's the situation there...
- twelve40 5y ago
  Might come as a surprise, but Boing and Airbus are not the only civil airplane manufacturers in the world.
  - the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
    Do you expect them to fly Cessnas now?
    - twelve40 5y ago
      - the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
        Clue me in which large manufacturer of passenger plans you have on your mind. There is practically nobody left any more. Boeing, Airbus and Embraer are controlling the market and all of those are directly or indirectly sanctioning Russia right now. Bombardier at this point is practically Airbus. In Russia there is one locally manufactured plane that has some traction from Sukhoi, but it also won't be able to be serviced or produced any more as key components are now sanctioned. So whom do you have in mind now? Comac?
        twelve40 5y ago
        > key components are now sanctioned Since you are so specific, can you at least hint what exactly are these key components that are now being sanctioned? Not engines. And sure, why not Comac, too, but that's a different story. Doesn't quite look like Cessna, does it?
        viraptor 5y ago
        The locally produced engines you mentioned elsewhere are barely past testing phase with single deployments in 2020/2021. The plans for this year were to produce 10 planes and that was assuming fully functioning economy and government grants. I'd be honestly impressed if they actually pulled off those 10.
  - smcl 5y ago
    They're certainly not, but they're the biggest and the Russian airlines already own or lease a lot of Boeing and Airbus planes. Aeroflot is nearly all Airbus[0] and Rossiya[1] (largest operator of Russian-made Sukhoi planes) is around half Airbus, half Sukhoi. They could indeed just scrap these and buy a shiny new fleet of, say, Embraer jets but that would involve retraining pilots and support staff, not to mention actually paying for them and waiting for them to be built + delivered (I don't imagine Embraer have a big showroom full of planes ready to be taken home!). [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_fleet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_fleet [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossiya_Airlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossiya_Airlines
    - twelve40 5y ago
      Just like Embraer would have a ton of trouble delivering a 500 plane replacement, think about what would it take to return 500 leased planes (and for the leasing companies to lease them to someone else to avoid going bankrupt, and for Boeing to deal with a deluge of cheap second-hand planes, etc etc). Even if all 500 planes are instantly returned at the end of March (how?), there will be reduced traffic to Europe due to the current European bans, and the rest of the traffic will be handled by the remaining fleet. I'm not even talking about Comac or other options.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - smcl 5y ago
        I think the point being made originally was not that the leased planes will be returned (many articles suggest they won't), it was that these planes need ongoing maintenance and parts which the airlines won't have access to. The original tweet thread viraptor is referring to suggested that this is something that will hit the airlines much sooner than we laypersons might have imagined. We'll see in the coming weeks, but the scenario you describe where a catastrophic decline in Russian flights such that there are enough non-Airbus/Boeing planes that can manage them is effectively a collapse in Russian civil aviation sector which is kinda what the thread was implying. The thread in question https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498723248183382020.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498723248183382020.html
  - blackoil 5y ago
    Practically they are the only ones. While Chinese and Russian make some of their own they are still dependent on West for engine and other critical components.
    - twelve40 5y ago
      Engines: MC-21 flew with a locally built PD-14 engine in 2020 (wikipedia). Work is underway on SSJ-New with a local PD-8 or a PD-14. There was a snag with composites, which were sanctioned by US a few years ago because of some other random bullshit, but now they are built locally as well. > other critical components Like what? This sounds a bit hand-wavy, what are those critical components, if you don't mind me asking?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
thatguy0900 5y ago
On the front page is a post about yandex where yandex says that they have equipment for a year on hand but there is a legitimate concern that as their equipment naturally breaks they will not be able to source replacements. There's no garuntee on what will be available for any up and coming company
_ph_ 5y ago
Container shipping is about to be reduced, Maersk just announced that they would only ship food to Russia going forward. Aviation in Russia might come mostly to a halt. About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, the rest is running out of spare parts quickly.
- twelve40 5y ago
  So now we are all of a sudden in the "might come to a halt" hypothetical. Ok. First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air traffic to something like Covid days-level. There are a lot of hypotheticals in this thread, facts on the ground right now are, the planes are flying, cargo ships are delivering and all but 7 banks are moving the money across the borders just fine.
  - konart 5y ago
    > First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Home-build - maybe, but not without parts from the US\EU, not to mention most of the production equipment is not Russian too and you have to maintain it or replace it at somepoint. Oh and to build something you need materials - some are local, some will have to be replaced if possible. This will be a huge problem, especially in a country with strong corruption tradition.
    - twelve40 5y ago
      Ok, at some point, sure, maybe.
    - cudgy 5y ago
      Or salvage parts and engines from the leased Boeings if they are comparable.

viraptor 5y ago

Not for long potentially. I don't have the link right now, but someone posted an interesting thread on Twitter how to fly planes you need a lot of international support. Down to things like supply of replacement parts and access to repair manuals. Their estimate (not sure if accurate) is that in 3 weeks, domestic aviation in Russia will become very hard to run. (Boing and Airbus already suspended providing replacement parts) I haven't heard anything about impact on container ships yet, so curious what's the situation there...

twelve40 5y ago
Might come as a surprise, but Boing and Airbus are not the only civil airplane manufacturers in the world.
- the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
  Do you expect them to fly Cessnas now?
  - twelve40 5y ago
    - the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
      Clue me in which large manufacturer of passenger plans you have on your mind. There is practically nobody left any more. Boeing, Airbus and Embraer are controlling the market and all of those are directly or indirectly sanctioning Russia right now. Bombardier at this point is practically Airbus. In Russia there is one locally manufactured plane that has some traction from Sukhoi, but it also won't be able to be serviced or produced any more as key components are now sanctioned. So whom do you have in mind now? Comac?
      - twelve40 5y ago
        > key components are now sanctioned Since you are so specific, can you at least hint what exactly are these key components that are now being sanctioned? Not engines. And sure, why not Comac, too, but that's a different story. Doesn't quite look like Cessna, does it?
        viraptor 5y ago
        The locally produced engines you mentioned elsewhere are barely past testing phase with single deployments in 2020/2021. The plans for this year were to produce 10 planes and that was assuming fully functioning economy and government grants. I'd be honestly impressed if they actually pulled off those 10.
- smcl 5y ago
  They're certainly not, but they're the biggest and the Russian airlines already own or lease a lot of Boeing and Airbus planes. Aeroflot is nearly all Airbus[0] and Rossiya[1] (largest operator of Russian-made Sukhoi planes) is around half Airbus, half Sukhoi. They could indeed just scrap these and buy a shiny new fleet of, say, Embraer jets but that would involve retraining pilots and support staff, not to mention actually paying for them and waiting for them to be built + delivered (I don't imagine Embraer have a big showroom full of planes ready to be taken home!). [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_fleet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_fleet [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossiya_Airlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossiya_Airlines
  - twelve40 5y ago
    Just like Embraer would have a ton of trouble delivering a 500 plane replacement, think about what would it take to return 500 leased planes (and for the leasing companies to lease them to someone else to avoid going bankrupt, and for Boeing to deal with a deluge of cheap second-hand planes, etc etc). Even if all 500 planes are instantly returned at the end of March (how?), there will be reduced traffic to Europe due to the current European bans, and the rest of the traffic will be handled by the remaining fleet. I'm not even talking about Comac or other options.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - smcl 5y ago
      I think the point being made originally was not that the leased planes will be returned (many articles suggest they won't), it was that these planes need ongoing maintenance and parts which the airlines won't have access to. The original tweet thread viraptor is referring to suggested that this is something that will hit the airlines much sooner than we laypersons might have imagined. We'll see in the coming weeks, but the scenario you describe where a catastrophic decline in Russian flights such that there are enough non-Airbus/Boeing planes that can manage them is effectively a collapse in Russian civil aviation sector which is kinda what the thread was implying. The thread in question https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498723248183382020.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498723248183382020.html
- blackoil 5y ago
  Practically they are the only ones. While Chinese and Russian make some of their own they are still dependent on West for engine and other critical components.
  - twelve40 5y ago
    Engines: MC-21 flew with a locally built PD-14 engine in 2020 (wikipedia). Work is underway on SSJ-New with a local PD-8 or a PD-14. There was a snag with composites, which were sanctioned by US a few years ago because of some other random bullshit, but now they are built locally as well. > other critical components Like what? This sounds a bit hand-wavy, what are those critical components, if you don't mind me asking?
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

thatguy0900 5y ago

On the front page is a post about yandex where yandex says that they have equipment for a year on hand but there is a legitimate concern that as their equipment naturally breaks they will not be able to source replacements. There's no garuntee on what will be available for any up and coming company

_ph_ 5y ago

Container shipping is about to be reduced, Maersk just announced that they would only ship food to Russia going forward. Aviation in Russia might come mostly to a halt. About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, the rest is running out of spare parts quickly.

twelve40 5y ago
So now we are all of a sudden in the "might come to a halt" hypothetical. Ok. First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air traffic to something like Covid days-level. There are a lot of hypotheticals in this thread, facts on the ground right now are, the planes are flying, cargo ships are delivering and all but 7 banks are moving the money across the borders just fine.
- konart 5y ago
  > First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Home-build - maybe, but not without parts from the US\EU, not to mention most of the production equipment is not Russian too and you have to maintain it or replace it at somepoint. Oh and to build something you need materials - some are local, some will have to be replaced if possible. This will be a huge problem, especially in a country with strong corruption tradition.
  - twelve40 5y ago
    Ok, at some point, sure, maybe.
  - cudgy 5y ago
    Or salvage parts and engines from the leased Boeings if they are comparable.