7 ms·

Provided they are vertically integrated and own the entire supply chain. Otherwise they will find that planes not flying in/out and container ships not deliver

Provided they are vertically integrated and own the entire supply chain. Otherwise they will find that planes not flying in/out and container ships not delivering will make it hard to import anything at scale. Not that they could pay for goods anyway. Also I suspect China may use its new found leverage to flood the Russian market with their goods.

dillondoyle 5y ago
That's a smart take I have not fully thought through. Beyond just economically, perhaps potential big gains politically by using money & leverage to become the controlling mother that Russia is to Belarus, making russia the dependent & ruled child.
- ZeroGravitas 5y ago
  I feel this is the real selling point of democracy and free media, its hard for a foreign nation to buy an entire electorate. Several nations seem to be setting themselves up for irrelevence by undermining democracy, usually at the behest of powerful groups within the country, but to do so they basically need to pay a bunch of people to tell lies. They've then created a network that external corporations and government actors can take advantage of. If the Russian news suddenly started telling the truth mixed with 30% Chinese propaganda, then to the average Russian that would be noticeably more true than what they are getting now. Would the presenters tell blatant Chinese lies to decieve their people? Well apart from the chinese bit they obviously do, so you basically hope they're all actually insane true-believers, because if theyre just ordinary Russians spreading obvious BS in return for a decent paycheck then thats an obvious weak point for the nation. And Russia knows this is viable, as they do it to other nations.
  - erichocean 5y ago
    > its hard for a foreign nation to buy an entire electorate You sure? According to the US government, a few hundred thousand dollars on Facebook ads was enough to buy a US President (c.f Trump, Donald J).
    - ZeroGravitas 5y ago
      The US was one of the countries I was talking about that intentionally undermined their own democracy. Did Trump win the popular vote? Would he have had any chance in a proportional voting system? Or if you had to vote? (He himself says no Republican could be elected if people could easily vote). Who made that possible and why?
      - dillondoyle 5y ago
        No. No. No. The constitution, state, and county voting laws.
- threeseed 5y ago
  This would make Russia the second child after North Korea.
twelve40 5y ago
there are plenty of planes flying in and out, container ships delivering, and cross border payments happening, right now.
- viraptor 5y ago
  Not for long potentially. I don't have the link right now, but someone posted an interesting thread on Twitter how to fly planes you need a lot of international support. Down to things like supply of replacement parts and access to repair manuals. Their estimate (not sure if accurate) is that in 3 weeks, domestic aviation in Russia will become very hard to run. (Boing and Airbus already suspended providing replacement parts) I haven't heard anything about impact on container ships yet, so curious what's the situation there...
  - twelve40 5y ago
    Might come as a surprise, but Boing and Airbus are not the only civil airplane manufacturers in the world.
    - the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
      Do you expect them to fly Cessnas now?
      - twelve40 5y ago
        the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
        Clue me in which large manufacturer of passenger plans you have on your mind. There is practically nobody left any more. Boeing, Airbus and Embraer are controlling the market and all of those are directly or indirectly sanctioning Russia right now. Bombardier at this point is practically Airbus. In Russia there is one locally manufactured plane that has some traction from Sukhoi, but it also won't be able to be serviced or produced any more as key components are now sanctioned. So whom do you have in mind now? Comac?
prawn 5y ago
Would Russia have an advantage in timber/forestry? Russia has almost 4x the forest area, but not sure about felling and organised industry around it. Almost 50% of Russia is forested to China's 23%, though I also found articles about China aggressively reforesting.
- ngcc_hk 5y ago
  It can easily changed as since ancient time china can claim S belong to C via monolgolian empire. When Russia is so dependent on china for everything, do you think chinese empire would just sit and let Russia grab so many lands of theirs from not so ancient unfair treaty. Mafia families are not rely upon …
- hypertele-Xii 5y ago
  Even Finland, the densest forest in Europe imports 80% of its wood pellets from Russia. Russia's got plenty of trees being felled. What I can't comment on however is the quality of lumber for construction purposes. Making pellets is trivial. Furniture, less so.
mercy_dude 5y ago
This whole thing makes me question the western/NATO motives of not pursuing de-escalation. Wouldn’t agreeing to Putin’s NATO non expansion terms be better than letting your economic competitor to basically establish monopoly on the entire Russian economic atmosphere?
- Tade0 5y ago
  That would imply that sovereign states don't get to decide who they're aligned with. As seen with Ukraine that in turn would make them first targets for an invasion. Such a decision would be anything but de-escalation.
  - cudgy 5y ago
    The reality is that Sovereignty is relative to how close a country is to the border of super power nations. Do you think Mexico or Canada can ally with any nation or join any military alliance they wish?
    - Tade0 5y ago
      I don't know about Mexico or Canada, but Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are all both Russia's neighbours and NATO members. Either Russia is not a superpower or it's not that relevant.
      - cudgy 5y ago
        Or Russia does not find those countries to be enough of a threat either due to size, military force, existing relationships, geographical boundaries, or a multitude of other factors. Or maybe Russia has begrudgingly accepted those countries joining NATO, but the last straw was a huge neighbor like Ukraine joining that is strategically important to them.
- serpix 5y ago
  Supplication to a tyrant worked only to incite unprovoked invasion and war crimes. The west believed that integrating Russia through economy and trade would bring us together. It only revealed Russia is not yet ready and still believes everybody is out to get them like some traumatised recluse. Enough is enough, the west has awoken to the sad reality that Russia has not changed. Also the Baltic sovereign nations remember very very very well what it was like under Russian oppression. They are not going back to that. Finnish people remember burning their homes ahead of the advancing tank armies. We remember both wars and many of us have the memories in our blood.

dillondoyle 5y ago

That's a smart take I have not fully thought through. Beyond just economically, perhaps potential big gains politically by using money & leverage to become the controlling mother that Russia is to Belarus, making russia the dependent & ruled child.

ZeroGravitas 5y ago
I feel this is the real selling point of democracy and free media, its hard for a foreign nation to buy an entire electorate. Several nations seem to be setting themselves up for irrelevence by undermining democracy, usually at the behest of powerful groups within the country, but to do so they basically need to pay a bunch of people to tell lies. They've then created a network that external corporations and government actors can take advantage of. If the Russian news suddenly started telling the truth mixed with 30% Chinese propaganda, then to the average Russian that would be noticeably more true than what they are getting now. Would the presenters tell blatant Chinese lies to decieve their people? Well apart from the chinese bit they obviously do, so you basically hope they're all actually insane true-believers, because if theyre just ordinary Russians spreading obvious BS in return for a decent paycheck then thats an obvious weak point for the nation. And Russia knows this is viable, as they do it to other nations.
- erichocean 5y ago
  > its hard for a foreign nation to buy an entire electorate You sure? According to the US government, a few hundred thousand dollars on Facebook ads was enough to buy a US President (c.f Trump, Donald J).
  - ZeroGravitas 5y ago
    The US was one of the countries I was talking about that intentionally undermined their own democracy. Did Trump win the popular vote? Would he have had any chance in a proportional voting system? Or if you had to vote? (He himself says no Republican could be elected if people could easily vote). Who made that possible and why?
    - dillondoyle 5y ago
      No. No. No. The constitution, state, and county voting laws.
threeseed 5y ago
This would make Russia the second child after North Korea.

twelve40 5y ago

there are plenty of planes flying in and out, container ships delivering, and cross border payments happening, right now.

viraptor 5y ago
Not for long potentially. I don't have the link right now, but someone posted an interesting thread on Twitter how to fly planes you need a lot of international support. Down to things like supply of replacement parts and access to repair manuals. Their estimate (not sure if accurate) is that in 3 weeks, domestic aviation in Russia will become very hard to run. (Boing and Airbus already suspended providing replacement parts) I haven't heard anything about impact on container ships yet, so curious what's the situation there...
- twelve40 5y ago
  Might come as a surprise, but Boing and Airbus are not the only civil airplane manufacturers in the world.
  - the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
    Do you expect them to fly Cessnas now?
    - twelve40 5y ago
      - the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
        Clue me in which large manufacturer of passenger plans you have on your mind. There is practically nobody left any more. Boeing, Airbus and Embraer are controlling the market and all of those are directly or indirectly sanctioning Russia right now. Bombardier at this point is practically Airbus. In Russia there is one locally manufactured plane that has some traction from Sukhoi, but it also won't be able to be serviced or produced any more as key components are now sanctioned. So whom do you have in mind now? Comac?

prawn 5y ago

Would Russia have an advantage in timber/forestry? Russia has almost 4x the forest area, but not sure about felling and organised industry around it. Almost 50% of Russia is forested to China's 23%, though I also found articles about China aggressively reforesting.

ngcc_hk 5y ago
It can easily changed as since ancient time china can claim S belong to C via monolgolian empire. When Russia is so dependent on china for everything, do you think chinese empire would just sit and let Russia grab so many lands of theirs from not so ancient unfair treaty. Mafia families are not rely upon …
hypertele-Xii 5y ago
Even Finland, the densest forest in Europe imports 80% of its wood pellets from Russia. Russia's got plenty of trees being felled. What I can't comment on however is the quality of lumber for construction purposes. Making pellets is trivial. Furniture, less so.

mercy_dude 5y ago

This whole thing makes me question the western/NATO motives of not pursuing de-escalation. Wouldn’t agreeing to Putin’s NATO non expansion terms be better than letting your economic competitor to basically establish monopoly on the entire Russian economic atmosphere?

Tade0 5y ago
That would imply that sovereign states don't get to decide who they're aligned with. As seen with Ukraine that in turn would make them first targets for an invasion. Such a decision would be anything but de-escalation.
- cudgy 5y ago
  The reality is that Sovereignty is relative to how close a country is to the border of super power nations. Do you think Mexico or Canada can ally with any nation or join any military alliance they wish?
  - Tade0 5y ago
    I don't know about Mexico or Canada, but Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are all both Russia's neighbours and NATO members. Either Russia is not a superpower or it's not that relevant.
    - cudgy 5y ago
      Or Russia does not find those countries to be enough of a threat either due to size, military force, existing relationships, geographical boundaries, or a multitude of other factors. Or maybe Russia has begrudgingly accepted those countries joining NATO, but the last straw was a huge neighbor like Ukraine joining that is strategically important to them.
serpix 5y ago
Supplication to a tyrant worked only to incite unprovoked invasion and war crimes. The west believed that integrating Russia through economy and trade would bring us together. It only revealed Russia is not yet ready and still believes everybody is out to get them like some traumatised recluse. Enough is enough, the west has awoken to the sad reality that Russia has not changed. Also the Baltic sovereign nations remember very very very well what it was like under Russian oppression. They are not going back to that. Finnish people remember burning their homes ahead of the advancing tank armies. We remember both wars and many of us have the memories in our blood.