4 ms·

Sure…but more than likely Russia is about to become thunderdome.

kyriakos 5y ago
I don't like getting into politics, but I believe the current situation is temporary, either will end up with a major political change in Russia or with a new cold war. Whichever the case for the local economy its like hitting the reset button.
- Galanwe 5y ago
  > either will end up with a major political change in Russia or with a new cold war. Agree for the former, but not with the latter. Though scientific and military advancements by Russia were possible during the cold war, in its current state and with the new sanctions, I don't think Russia will be able to cope with the rest of the world. IMHO it's more like there will be either a regime change or a new North Korea.
- threeseed 5y ago
  Putin is 69 in a country where average age at death is 73. So the most likely scenario is that the status quo remains until he passes away. At which point there would be an opportunity for a clean reset in relations.
  - dainiusse 5y ago
    I was born in aoviet union and live in baltics. Believe me - there is whole kgb system. Once putin is dead - there will be someone similar.
  - deniska 5y ago
    Gorbachev is 91 and still alive.
    - dillondoyle 5y ago
      Yeah I think it's a false statistics lens people look through. Because a lot of death occurs young, brining the average down. But if you survive into adult hood you have good shot at living longer. Plus he has way more resources than the average Russian.
    - erosenbe0 5y ago
      Jimmy Carter is 97. Kissinger is 98. All three won Nobel Peace Prizes. Is that the key to longevity? Because Putin will not be joining that club.
  - JohnBooty 5y ago
    That doesn't mean he has a 50% chance of dying in 4 years. That avg expectancy of 73 includes all the people that die young, etc. "Actuarial tables" is the term you're looking for, if you're curious how long a particular person at a particular age might live. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html In the US a person who is currently 69 years old will live, on average, for another 17.53 years. In Russia the average expectancy is a little shorter, but also Putin is not an average person. By all accounts he seems pretty healthy, and obviously he has unlimited access to the best healthcare money can buy.
    - erosenbe0 5y ago
      He is a man so it is 15.x years from 69 not 17.x years. But he is a short man which in some studies tends to make up a lot of the difference. Short people live longer.
  - laurent92 5y ago
    > At which point there would be an opportunity for a clean reset in relations. No. All major industries are breaking up contracts with the Russians. SWIFT took a century to build. None of that is coming back. Russia can never trust Europe again, and no country can trust Cloud products anymore, seeing how many Russian people are getting HTTP 410 from Cloud products.
    - postingawayonhn 5y ago
      Putin can never trust Europe again. A new democratic government could.
  - onion2k 5y ago
    Putin is 69 in a country where average age at death is 73. Having a team of private doctors, access to the best hospitals, access to Western medicine, even being able to leave Russia for medical care will probably mean he lives longer than average.
- laurent92 5y ago
  I don’t believe the situation is temporary. All major industries are cutting ties with Russia. SWIFT took 100 years to create, even if we allow it back, Russia won’t trust us, ever. It looks to me like our European leaders are escalating in a specific way that ensures we are locked in a feud with Russia for decades to come, in such a way that we can’t renew relationships even if Putin dies and if they pay war damages (which they won’t be able to pay because of their damaged economy - Ow, sweet irony of 1928…). I wonder whether we, European people, have an interest into making a 50-years war with Russia, like our leaders are deciding. Or, in other words, where can I emigrate, from France.
  - shawabawa3 5y ago
    European leaders are largely acting out of public opinion being against Russia I think you're in the minority if you're against sanctions Russia poked and prodded NATO for years (Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea) and watched the European powers stand idly by with maybe some words and small sanctions This caused them to miscalculate and push too far. But the escalation is Russia's fault, nobody made them invade anybody

I don't like getting into politics, but I believe the current situation is temporary, either will end up with a major political change in Russia or with a new cold war. Whichever the case for the local economy its like hitting the reset button.

Galanwe 5y ago
> either will end up with a major political change in Russia or with a new cold war. Agree for the former, but not with the latter. Though scientific and military advancements by Russia were possible during the cold war, in its current state and with the new sanctions, I don't think Russia will be able to cope with the rest of the world. IMHO it's more like there will be either a regime change or a new North Korea.
threeseed 5y ago
Putin is 69 in a country where average age at death is 73. So the most likely scenario is that the status quo remains until he passes away. At which point there would be an opportunity for a clean reset in relations.
- dainiusse 5y ago
  I was born in aoviet union and live in baltics. Believe me - there is whole kgb system. Once putin is dead - there will be someone similar.
- deniska 5y ago
  Gorbachev is 91 and still alive.
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    Yeah I think it's a false statistics lens people look through. Because a lot of death occurs young, brining the average down. But if you survive into adult hood you have good shot at living longer. Plus he has way more resources than the average Russian.
  - erosenbe0 5y ago
    Jimmy Carter is 97. Kissinger is 98. All three won Nobel Peace Prizes. Is that the key to longevity? Because Putin will not be joining that club.
- JohnBooty 5y ago
  That doesn't mean he has a 50% chance of dying in 4 years. That avg expectancy of 73 includes all the people that die young, etc. "Actuarial tables" is the term you're looking for, if you're curious how long a particular person at a particular age might live. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html In the US a person who is currently 69 years old will live, on average, for another 17.53 years. In Russia the average expectancy is a little shorter, but also Putin is not an average person. By all accounts he seems pretty healthy, and obviously he has unlimited access to the best healthcare money can buy.
  - erosenbe0 5y ago
    He is a man so it is 15.x years from 69 not 17.x years. But he is a short man which in some studies tends to make up a lot of the difference. Short people live longer.
- laurent92 5y ago
  > At which point there would be an opportunity for a clean reset in relations. No. All major industries are breaking up contracts with the Russians. SWIFT took a century to build. None of that is coming back. Russia can never trust Europe again, and no country can trust Cloud products anymore, seeing how many Russian people are getting HTTP 410 from Cloud products.
  - postingawayonhn 5y ago
    Putin can never trust Europe again. A new democratic government could.
- onion2k 5y ago
  Putin is 69 in a country where average age at death is 73. Having a team of private doctors, access to the best hospitals, access to Western medicine, even being able to leave Russia for medical care will probably mean he lives longer than average.
laurent92 5y ago
I don’t believe the situation is temporary. All major industries are cutting ties with Russia. SWIFT took 100 years to create, even if we allow it back, Russia won’t trust us, ever. It looks to me like our European leaders are escalating in a specific way that ensures we are locked in a feud with Russia for decades to come, in such a way that we can’t renew relationships even if Putin dies and if they pay war damages (which they won’t be able to pay because of their damaged economy - Ow, sweet irony of 1928…). I wonder whether we, European people, have an interest into making a 50-years war with Russia, like our leaders are deciding. Or, in other words, where can I emigrate, from France.
- shawabawa3 5y ago
  European leaders are largely acting out of public opinion being against Russia I think you're in the minority if you're against sanctions Russia poked and prodded NATO for years (Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea) and watched the European powers stand idly by with maybe some words and small sanctions This caused them to miscalculate and push too far. But the escalation is Russia's fault, nobody made them invade anybody